EDIT: I think my post rambled a bit, what I really want to ask is; "Do you agree with me that LV is saying we are about 20th or so (like Stanford) or do you believe we are 40+ like KenPom and RPI? "
I'm going to compare tonights IU game to the AZ/Stanford game because the teams are ranked somewhat similar. A top team vs. a 20-50 team. This was the closest match I see for tonight.
Bovada has us at 1.5pt favorites tonight, at home vs. Maryland. And AZ is 4 point Fav @ Stanford. I'd put us more at pick em, and I think the AZ line is about right (my opinion). But, when looking at KenPom and RPI, it doesn't add up.
I've done a lot of sports betting, the Vegas line is usually pretty accurate. I know it skews to certain teams and some emotion, but overall it is the single best predictor of a sports outcome. Money talks. Computers are good too, but not as good. Maybe you don't agree, if so you won't agree with the rest of this post.
What would the line be if we just looked at RPI?
KenPom has AZ at 5 and Stanford at 31. They have us at 54, Maryland at 15.
RPI has AZ at 7 and Stanford at 22. They have us at 41 at Maryland at 13.
If we toss out LV and just say, what should the KenPom betting line be of these games, surely similar. right? if anything, Stanford line should be closer. Yet IU is a fav by 1.5 to 2 and Stanford is a dog by 3.5 to 4. Seems to me RPI would have Maryland a 4-6 pt fav and KenPom even higher.
For all of you that use KenPom and RPI to explain how IU isn't very good, I'd like to hear your arguments as to why LV is so wrong? My opinion is LV is right, and IU is better than a lot of the computers say. I'd love to persuade a few of you.
This post was edited on 1/22 4:39 PM by markmdill
I'm going to compare tonights IU game to the AZ/Stanford game because the teams are ranked somewhat similar. A top team vs. a 20-50 team. This was the closest match I see for tonight.
Bovada has us at 1.5pt favorites tonight, at home vs. Maryland. And AZ is 4 point Fav @ Stanford. I'd put us more at pick em, and I think the AZ line is about right (my opinion). But, when looking at KenPom and RPI, it doesn't add up.
I've done a lot of sports betting, the Vegas line is usually pretty accurate. I know it skews to certain teams and some emotion, but overall it is the single best predictor of a sports outcome. Money talks. Computers are good too, but not as good. Maybe you don't agree, if so you won't agree with the rest of this post.
What would the line be if we just looked at RPI?
KenPom has AZ at 5 and Stanford at 31. They have us at 54, Maryland at 15.
RPI has AZ at 7 and Stanford at 22. They have us at 41 at Maryland at 13.
If we toss out LV and just say, what should the KenPom betting line be of these games, surely similar. right? if anything, Stanford line should be closer. Yet IU is a fav by 1.5 to 2 and Stanford is a dog by 3.5 to 4. Seems to me RPI would have Maryland a 4-6 pt fav and KenPom even higher.
For all of you that use KenPom and RPI to explain how IU isn't very good, I'd like to hear your arguments as to why LV is so wrong? My opinion is LV is right, and IU is better than a lot of the computers say. I'd love to persuade a few of you.
This post was edited on 1/22 4:39 PM by markmdill
