I’m a raw politics guy, not a policy wonk, although I enjoy reading and learning about the intricacies of policy from several on this board. That said, I think this board could come up with a much needed infrastructure bill, since actually governing is not a priority in DC at the moment.
But this is about the raw politics of winning the next presidential election, specifically Biden’s choice of a running mate. In my opinion, the accepted view that the VP choice has little to no impact on the election has always been false. I won’t argue here why I believe the VP choice has always carried more weight than it’s given credit for, but pundits are unanimous in believing that Biden’s choice in this election will have a significant impact on the election results.
Let’s see who the serious contenders are, along with the pretenders. I think we can all agree that the tragedy in Minneapolis has given rice to African American contenders.
Contenders that are no longer serious options:
Amy Klobuchar- I think Biden was on the verge of pulling a Hillary and selecting her before the Minneapolis tragedy. She refused to prosecute police brutality cases when she was prosecutor, and referred them over to a grand jury. Progressive voices in the party are openly calling for her to drop out of the vetting process which tells us how serious of a contender she is (was). She’s done as far as being picked for VP, and although she’s a great talent, she’s the female version of Tim Kaine and not who you want to pick to excite the base.
Elizabeth Warren-I could still see an outside shot of her getting picked, although not likely. She polls the highest among contenders, but her real strength is pulling in progressives from the left. No way your giving up a senate seat though, and Mass has a republican governor that would pick her replacement.
Gretchen Whitmer-Biden is strong in Michigan and she’s a little green. Not getting picked.
Tammy Baldwin-not happening
Catherine Cortez Masto-dropped out of consideration.
Michelle Lujan Grisham-Nope
Now the serious contenders, the Sisters:
Susan Rice-Very capable, was U.N. secretary and NSA to Obama. I doubt Biden wants to hear the word Benghazi for 3 months. Not getting picked.
Stacy Abrams- Biden is a traditionalist and probably is turned off by her aggressive campaigning for the job. She’s also not ready right now. I can see her as the first African American female Supreme Court justice.
The real serious contenders:
Keisha Lance Bottoms-She has shined in a big way with her leadership of Atlanta during two crises since becoming mayor. She’s young, attractive, and straight shooter. She was also one of the first politicians to openly support Biden from the beginning and stayed loyal through the early primaries. She has a real legitimate shot to be picked if Biden thinks he needs to stay away from contenders with law enforcement backgrounds.
Val Demings-Her stock is rising every day and has a compelling life story. Former police chief of Orlando and a House Impeachment manager. Smart and comes across as tough and serious. If Biden wants to gamble on trying to win Florida and/or Georgia to strangle Trump’s electoral path, he may go with Bottoms or Demings. Otherwise:
All things considered, and if Biden doesn’t overthink things, here is your next VP:
Kamala Harris- She’s smart, attractive, has executive experience and national campaign experience. She’ll take the fight to Trump and is ready to be President from day one. She will excite the base and represent the future of the party. She is a fundraising juggernaut. Her presence on the ticket will excite black voters enough in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philly to flip those states, and possibly even Georgia and North Carolina. It may rattle Trump into impulsively dumping Pence for Haley, which will backfire.
Under the current climate, this is the easiest VP sweepstakes to handicap in a while.
Any differing opinions?
But this is about the raw politics of winning the next presidential election, specifically Biden’s choice of a running mate. In my opinion, the accepted view that the VP choice has little to no impact on the election has always been false. I won’t argue here why I believe the VP choice has always carried more weight than it’s given credit for, but pundits are unanimous in believing that Biden’s choice in this election will have a significant impact on the election results.
Let’s see who the serious contenders are, along with the pretenders. I think we can all agree that the tragedy in Minneapolis has given rice to African American contenders.
Contenders that are no longer serious options:
Amy Klobuchar- I think Biden was on the verge of pulling a Hillary and selecting her before the Minneapolis tragedy. She refused to prosecute police brutality cases when she was prosecutor, and referred them over to a grand jury. Progressive voices in the party are openly calling for her to drop out of the vetting process which tells us how serious of a contender she is (was). She’s done as far as being picked for VP, and although she’s a great talent, she’s the female version of Tim Kaine and not who you want to pick to excite the base.
Elizabeth Warren-I could still see an outside shot of her getting picked, although not likely. She polls the highest among contenders, but her real strength is pulling in progressives from the left. No way your giving up a senate seat though, and Mass has a republican governor that would pick her replacement.
Gretchen Whitmer-Biden is strong in Michigan and she’s a little green. Not getting picked.
Tammy Baldwin-not happening
Catherine Cortez Masto-dropped out of consideration.
Michelle Lujan Grisham-Nope
Now the serious contenders, the Sisters:
Susan Rice-Very capable, was U.N. secretary and NSA to Obama. I doubt Biden wants to hear the word Benghazi for 3 months. Not getting picked.
Stacy Abrams- Biden is a traditionalist and probably is turned off by her aggressive campaigning for the job. She’s also not ready right now. I can see her as the first African American female Supreme Court justice.
The real serious contenders:
Keisha Lance Bottoms-She has shined in a big way with her leadership of Atlanta during two crises since becoming mayor. She’s young, attractive, and straight shooter. She was also one of the first politicians to openly support Biden from the beginning and stayed loyal through the early primaries. She has a real legitimate shot to be picked if Biden thinks he needs to stay away from contenders with law enforcement backgrounds.
Val Demings-Her stock is rising every day and has a compelling life story. Former police chief of Orlando and a House Impeachment manager. Smart and comes across as tough and serious. If Biden wants to gamble on trying to win Florida and/or Georgia to strangle Trump’s electoral path, he may go with Bottoms or Demings. Otherwise:
All things considered, and if Biden doesn’t overthink things, here is your next VP:
Kamala Harris- She’s smart, attractive, has executive experience and national campaign experience. She’ll take the fight to Trump and is ready to be President from day one. She will excite the base and represent the future of the party. She is a fundraising juggernaut. Her presence on the ticket will excite black voters enough in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philly to flip those states, and possibly even Georgia and North Carolina. It may rattle Trump into impulsively dumping Pence for Haley, which will backfire.
Under the current climate, this is the easiest VP sweepstakes to handicap in a while.
Any differing opinions?