What makes nation building so difficult?

[Marvin the Martian]

A nation fails, a new leader is brought in, millions are spent to renovate and rebuild, and the new nation still can't get off the ground. So a new leader is brought in millions are spent to renovate and rebuild, and the nation still can't get off the ground. At some point do you just give up?

As you can tell by the user of millions and not billions or trillions, I'm talking IU football. I had thought of this "nation building" connection a couple weeks ago but held off until I saw Sope going postal on the football board this weekend. So I thought maybe we could discuss football here.

This year has been frustrating, I had no doubt we should have been a bowl team before the season started. I was disappointed in the way we played against IU, but I kept hearing "we kept it vanilla to not show Bowling Green anything" so I thought maybe I was wrong. Then came Bowling Green and we just didn't look very good at all. Next up was Mizzou, a game I couldn't watch but was in a location I could watch our final drive. So it seemed maybe we had just gotten it together and everything was back on track for at least a 6 win season.

Then came Maryland. Maryland is a very OK team, they aren't terrible but they aren't a threat to beat the great teams. That was the one game I could make this year, and it was a bitter disappointment. We just didn't look good at all. Nothing worked. I think twice we had Maryland 3rd and over 15 and gave up first downs. The offense seemed out of sorts. It was horrible.

So here we sit, and I understand our QB situation makes games like Michigan and MSU impossible to judge. Though I will mention that Ball State led Iowa almost the entire game, a feat we were not close to accomplishing while our #1 QB was in the game.

Now we get into the question of where to go. Strangely, I agree a little with what Sope said on the football boards that we have to extend Wilson. Another coach turnover isn't really going to help anything as it is painfully clear there is no magic coach out there who could come in and turn us around (though if Belichick wants to go down in history as the greatest football coach ever, winning at IU would do that, just saying). So with nothing else guaranteed of success, tearing down and rebuilding now seems like a bad idea.

On the other hand, that Maryland game thoroughly soured me on where we are. It was a decent fan turnout after a big win. Then next game was a gimme, so there was no looking ahead. It was the game where programs are built, a chance to prove before 45,000 fans that you were for real. A chance to virtually guarantee that 6 win season. We never competed. It was as bad as anything Cameron or Lynch produced. So now I'm not sure Wilson has us making any meaningful strides on the field. After Maryland I became convinced we couldn't win 6, and 5 would be a very difficult task. And that with a really bad Big 10.

So keeping Wilson may just be delaying the inevitable but sometimes the lesser of two evils is the answer. I have almost no confidence he can get us to a bowl next year, yet I have less confidence we can bring in someone better. And I mention a bowl next year because I believe there becomes a point where recruits realize you haven't achieved and your ability to attract them lowers. Five years without six wins seems likely to be that point to me.

Why is nation building so hard? We invested in the facilities. Because of Manning and the Colts, Indiana produces more football talent then back in Corso's day. Purdue is down too, it isn't as if they are dominating in our base recruiting area. Just by sheer coincidence it seems we should occasionally be good. I don't mean SEC West good, I mean good enough to go to a bowl and be competitive even against the good Big Ten teams. Maybe not beat an OSU, but be in the game deep into the 4th.

But we do have a nice variety of helmets we can wear. There's always that.

 

[brhag79]

Pretty good summation. I dont


see any light at the end of the tunnel. As a head coach I think Wilson is pretty mediocre. We have seen many questionable calls, poor clock management, and seemingly no real game plan (see this weekend) as an example. I still dont get why on earth you would sit Coleman. That made zero sense and to me was just another example of thinking you are at Oklahoma and loaded, but in reality you at IU and costing your team there one slim chance at staying competitive early. He is baffling to me, but I dont think changing, at least at this point, is the answer either....lot of dollars building facilities to house more empty seats. Hope it turns around been that way for the 35 yrs I have endured IU football....& that is IU FB, an endurance test.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

How soon we forget . . . .

Isenbarger, Gonso, Snaidecki? We just take a little longer to rebuild than other programs, that's all.

If anybody can answer your question, they'd be a gazillionaire. I do know that except for a small fourish here and there, IU has never been more than a second-division Big 10 team. This goes back to the national championship team of the late 40's. Every team in the conference has risen from the ashes more frequently than IU. Take Northwestern. The long time doormat went to the Rose Bowl and resided in the upper division IIRC more often than not. Bill Mallory didn't win a game his first season, and again IIRC correctly, had the Hoosiers in a bowl in a few years. Mallory had the Hoosiers consistently in the upper division, but then we fired him so that we could go to the "next level". We are all well aware of the post-mallory era. The good news is that IU is a part of one of those "sooper conferences" and as such we should be able to separate ourselves from the Indiana State's of the world. The bad news is that keeping up with the Ohio State's will be more difficult. I'm a firm believer in longevity in many circumstances--including college football. The first thing we need to do is stop the revolving coaching door. Maybe we will spend a generation simply as a good but not great program if we make a long term committment to a good coach. But that is okay. How do we find a good coach? Well we don't find them by searching those who have one or two good years at their prior job. We don't find them by looking at rising stars who skate through jobs every few years. We find them by hiring somebody like Billy Beane to do the search and run the back office. Where do we find a Billy Beane? Beats me.











This post was edited on 11/3 10:30 AM by CO. Hoosier

 

[Univee2]

Because we build on quicksand.

I have a few years' experience here; we would ride our bikes up to 17th Street while they were building Memorial Stadium, so I've watched this program since the Dickens' years.

We could have had it under Pont .. if the boycott hadn't broken the program.

We could have done it under Mallory .. if he had turned the reins over a little before the decline.

What else have we done? Settled. And we expect different results. I can see the Doctor at the end of The Bridge on the River Kwai (one of the best movies ever, btw): "Madness!"

I understand the thought behind allowing Wilson more time to develop the program. I don't agree with it. I believe we'll be at about the same level in four years as we are now. And then we'll hire another Assistant, maybe from a prestige school and, woo boy, here we go again.

I have argued before that the ONLY thing that will turn this program around - remember, from the losingest major college program in the country - is a big name hire. And I mean REALLY BIG. The counter argument - and it's a good one and a valid one - is: Who would even think of coming to IU? It's a great question and I don't have the answer ... or the dollars. But BIG MONEY can buy big things. And, FOR ONCE, maybe we should at least try. If we don't "this" will never change.

If you watch an SEC game, you see a level and a quality of play with which IU - well, most of the Big Ten - is unfamiliar. We can't compete because we can't/don't get the horses (the building materials). We won't get the horses until we bring in a name as coach. We need a wowser. Look at what happened when Knight left. Davis and POS Sampson and now, unfortunately, maybe Crean. If Crean goes, do we hire an Assistant? I ... don't .... think ... so. Why should we not adopt the same premise for a football coach?

I'm not saying this would/will be easy. There are a lot of coaches, looking to make a return, who would probably laugh at an approach by IU. And, yet, with the prospect of a large enough incentive, I'd bet a NAME would eventually make his way to Bloomington.

We've continued to try the alternative and, boy, the results have been spectacular, haven't they? Why not, after 50-60 years, try a different approach? Aim high; shoot high. Aim low; end up at the bottom of the Big Ten year after freakin' year. We've beaten OSU exactly twice in my lifetime. Twice ... as in TWO times.

People are worried about transfers and recruiting classes if a change were to be made. Yeah? So? We're really doing exceptionally well with what we have. Where are we in the Big Ten and the national rankings? With a NAME, do you think the "stars" would get scared and leave? If so, good riddance. You have the NAME to bring in better construction materials for this nation we want to build.

Change the model. Please.

....But I know we won't, and people will still be having this discussion in 20-30 years and we'll still be at the bottom.

This post was edited on 11/3 10:34 AM by Univee2

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Billy Beane is in town

Neither would be offered, nor accept, such a position but between Sagarin and Winston we have Billy Beane. They would just need to focus more on football. But maybe they could be offered the same consulting deal they had (have?) with the Mavs. Maybe IU could get the reputation as the Moneyball of college football? It would at least be a reputation better than the one we have.

 

[dbmhoosier]

How are we getting a big name coach?

Why would any of them ever come here? We have one of the worst football programs in the country and have for decades. This isn't like basketball where we have 5 national championships. It's like a Purdue fan saying that all they need to do is land Brad Stevens.

 

[LisleIUfan]

Even more concerning is that the Basketball Program has become average.

It's not a great program any more. It's not even a good program. It's average at best. At best.

 

[FL33]

You make some assumptions that are not facts and color your analysis.

" Another coach turnover isn't really going to help anything as it is painfully clear there is no magic coach out there who could come in and turn us around"

There is no coach out there who could come in and turn IU around? Really? How do you know?

I could not think of a homerun hire right now (that is a good AD's job), but I certainly doubt you can vet and disqualify all the potential candidates out there. I doubt you (or I) even have a good grasp on the field of potential candidates.

I think what you really mean (and stated a later in your post) is, "IU's athletic administration is so poor historically, that I don't trust them to make another hire." That may be true, but IU will never be competitive in football if the administration doesn't lead the way. So why worry about it? Just...eh...."lay back and enjoy it."

I'm sure there were fans at the respective schools who thought keeping the incumbent coaches prior to Al Golden at Temple, Greg Schiano at Rutgers, Bary Alvarez at Wisconsin, Bill Snyder at K-State, etc... was a good idea. They were wrong. Change was good for them.

--

Extending Wilson is a poor idea. We pretty much know what Wilson is at this point.

In general, "a coach's record in his 3rd year will be written on his epitaph." Some may require a 4th year. A case could be made that at a school like IU, a 5th year is necessary. Those are the rarer cases.

But still...next year will be Wilson's 5th. If he hasn't turned it around by then, odds are he never will.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Let's try this amendment

We are statistically unlikely to find a golden coach based on our previous track record (and probably most track records, I'd suggest the Alvarez hire is less likely than the guy who gets stuck at mediocre).

Now it may be the fault of our AD, but the AD position has been changed a couple times since our last Rose Bowl team. So I'm not sure we are looking at only the ability of the current AD.

We have gone from Cam->Dinardo->Hep->Lynch->Wilson pretty quickly. Now Hep was an unfortunate circumstance, but it happened. While I think we are in agreement that we do pretty much know what Wilson is at this point, I'm just not sure what we get by replacing him. I will say, I hate the idea of an extension that we will just have to buy out after next year if it is the season I suspect it will be.

Maybe there is an Alvarez out there for us (or Randy Walker who I think I used). But how do you know who that person is? If one is completely confident they know who that person is and we can get them, then go for it. But I'm not sure we need another random draw from the deck.

Which maybe goes to what CO mentioned below, maybe we just take the humans out of the equation entirely. Turn to the computer to decide who has the best chance and hire that person.

Or maybe we just need to look at the athletic program in its entirety. Maybe there is something systemic that has held on for all these years. Maybe there are changes outside Memorial Stadium that IU needs to make.

 

[ARMZP]

Kentucky did. And they are as

bad as IU. Or at least they used to be. They are most certainly headed in the right direction.....No reason IU couldn't either.

 

[mjvcaj]

Is backing a mediocre coach is the way to go?

Mediocrity just breeds mediocrity. Sure, it could lead to a few bowls at some point over time, but it won't be consistent.

There is a big difference between a guy like Glenn Mason, who was run out of Minnesota, but had a system that worked and always brought the Gophs to a bowl and Wilson, who hasn't proven himself as a competent coach. I'm quite disappointed that Wilson has neglected to bring the diversity of passing his teams showed at OU.

Everything, even with Sudfeld, was short and mostly to the outside. We have very few downfield targets, few slants and crossing routes and little to no seams or posts. We don't keep the opposing safeties honest. It is also worth mentioning that his selection for assistants and DCs have been horrendous.

I do like Wilson's no nonsense attitude and that our program has been relatively quiet with off the field incidents.

But again, all I see is mediocrity.


This post was edited on 11/3 2:45 PM by mjvcaj

 

[mjvcaj]

So...

Statistically against odds means that you just give up? For the majority of programs that are successful now, you can argue that one coach was the key to turning it around (e.g. KSU, VTech, Wisky, Louisville, Duke BB, Florida BB, etc.).

 

[FL33]

Statistically speaking, IU should be quick to fire coaches, and not

let poor hires stand around. Let's lump Hep (who I think had a better than not chance at being competitive here) and Lynch (a short term fix allowed to languish) together and say they've had 4 hires in that stretch.

Before that Mallory was a good hire. That's 1 out of 5 tries in recent history.

Since Mallory we've had 4 coaches (combining Hep and Lynch) in 18 seasons. If IU had only allowed 4 years for each coach, IU might be on the 5th coach by now and in the middle of a real turn around by a successful coach....statistically, speaking.

--

IU is on a bunch of different AD's for the same reason they are on their 4th football coach....they have all been sub-standard or gotten themselves fired. Good AD's have a short list of names of possible coaching candidates for every coach they over see. If they can't swing that, then they need to delegate that responsibility to someone who can.

Here's another thing having a quick trigger does: it keeps out all the lazy retread coaches looking for a comfy spot to land for one last pay-check. It gets guys who are willing to take a chance. IU needs aggressive coaches willing to take a chance, but IU will have to take a chance on them.

Guys like Alvarez, Snyder, Golden and Schiano were all coordinators at fairly major programs before they took *huge* chances in going to the program they went to. Wilson was the same. The other route is to dip down into the lower levels and get a coach who is really good down there. Brian Kelly to Cent. Michigan and Tressell to OSU would certainly fall in that category.

A lot of times, those hires were made when the candidate was really young. For example, ND's def. coord. last year just jumped to UConn for a head coaching job. He's like 39 or 40.

Give 'em 4 years. If they don't produce by then, re-evaluate and most likely send them packing.

The AD doesn't have to be perfect, but the AD must know what he's looking for and where to look. After that....nuth'n takes longer than 4 years in college football.

 

[Sope Creek]

Postal?

That was going postal?

I had no idea . . . I'd better not get angry . . . you wouldn't like me when I'm angry . . . .

 

[Univee2]

No, you were just reserved.

..Woodford edition ....

 

[Sope Creek]

Got an invite to Ray's at Killer Creek . . .

for a Woodford Reserve Dinner. Shannon Holmes, Brown-Forman's Whiskey Brand Champion, is the guest speaker.

$75 per . . .

I dunno . . . I don't like to share Woodford Reserve . . . I might have to go postal there . . . .




This post was edited on 11/3 5:04 PM by Sope Creek

 

[Ladoga]

To get the "name" coach like

you're talking about, it will take a LOT - and I mean 6-8 million per year - of money and the folks who run our university don't care enough to do that. Neither do a huge number of alums.

IF we wanted it, we could have done it long ago and we could do it right now, but "they" don't care.
This post was edited on 11/3 5:19 PM by Ladoga

 

[Ladoga]

Saban makes

$7.6 million - tops among college football coaches.

How can we get a top name? Pay $8 million per year.

That would serve notice that we ain't messin' round no mo.

 

[Sope Creek]

We wish it were average . . .

in less than a week we have two guys involved in an auto accident where both of them test positive for alcohol and they're both underage, and we have two guys test positive for drug use, and we have at least two other guys who've been arrested for underage alcohol consumption . . . .

My sense is that the BTN has been a blessing financially, but has handicapped IU's purpose as a university to the point where i'm wondering whether it makes any sense to maintain big-time sports teams at all . . . maybe less "atmosphere" is more, when it comes to a college education.

in any case, I'm all for winning basketball games and championships, but not at the cost of the university's reputation and purpose. The problems that Crean is having with the bball program are beyond normal "kids will be kids" stuff . . . my sense is that we're sacrificing too much to have a "winning" program, at least with Crean as coach. As much as I'd like to give Wilson plenty of time to build the football program (I don't remember any stuff like what we're seeing with the bball team, with 8 times the number of kids in the program), my patience is worn thin - really thin - with Crean.

I can live with instability in talent with ones and dones, and I can live with growing marginally skilled guys with superior athleticism into basketball players . . . but I can't abide those things when the underlying culture basically has kids making no commitment to each other to be ready, willing and able to be a teammate the whole team can trust. Because when it comes down to it, trust is what makes every good and great basketball team what they are, and the lack of trust is what makes every bad and shoulda been team what they are.

If Crean can't get that across to the kids he's recruiting, then he's either (a) not up to being a coach at this program or (b) he's recruiting the wrong kids - in which case see (a).

AAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This post was edited on 11/3 8:52 PM by Sope Creek

 

[i'vegotwinners]

if we paid $8 mil for a coach, we'd have an $8 mil coach who was no more successful than Corso or Mallory or Cameron or anyone else.

and the "buy success" crowd would instantly start in that if only we would pay the assistants much more, build more stuff, and just spend spend spend our way to success. (all from the guys who insist all our nation's problems are rooted in workers being overpaid, and too hard to fire).

of course, spending our way to success only works if we can pay the players, not the coaches, and pay them more than anyone else.

it is about the Jimmys and the Joes, no matter how much everyone wants to believe otherwise.


IU's football problem is geographic in nature.

IU's core recruiting base is Indy and south central Indiana, and that area just doesn't produce many good players.

in addition, we are surrounded by a slew of other major schools within easy driving distance.

while other schools have to deal with a very small recruiting base, for the most part they aren't surrounded by near as many other major schools to compete with.

that said, we should have had more success than we have.


Neb and Mich are football blue bloods that while currently better than IU, aren't what the once were.

don't expect them to ever fully recover their past glory. the recruiting bases just aren't there.

basketball is about a few great players, football is a numbers game that requires a lot of good players.

recruiting base is key in football.

the state of Mich isn't going to support more than 1 real good team most yrs.

on the other hand PSU has a strong recruiting base, so i do look for them to eventually recover.


as for IU's small recruiting base, that also means a small core fan base, and imo IU's pricing strategy of maximizing revenues rather than maxing attendance, has greatly hurt recruiting efforts.


all that said, IU can do better on field than they have.

while we may never have great depth, a great QB, a couple real good receivers, one great pass rusher, one play making D-back, and one great LB, go a long way.

get that core together, stay healthy, get a few good bounces, don't get screwed by refs, and IU can be pretty good most yrs.


in the mean time, no better city and campus than Btown, and one doesn't have to shell out $90 plus bucks per person for a horrible seat to a football game. (which i'll never pay, no matter how good IU gets).

enjoy the day and the contest, and don't let the final score be the end all be all.

don't get so fixated on a bowl game, you forget to enjoy the 12 games we are guaranteed.

as one who grew up in Btown attending games, (saw my first IU game in 10th st stadium), i realized i was lucky to just live in a town with a college football and basketball team, and enjoyed attending win or lose.

if nothing else, it would be nice to see IU use some of that excess capacity and price things such that most anyone in south central Indiana who wanted to attend an IU football game with the family could, without being priced out of the market while the stadium sits 1/3rd empty during games.


the airline and hotel businesses have figured this out. IU hasn't, nor have i ever seen any great effort in that direction made. .

get much better attendance, and we'll recruit better.

 

[Univee2]

We've become a FREAKIN' national punchline.

Maybe it's time to totally clean house, starting at the very top.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

Re: We wish it were average . . .

Originally posted by Sope Creek:
in less than a week we have two guys involved in an auto accident where both of them test positive for alcohol and they're both underage, and we have two guys test positive for drug use, and we have at least two other guys who've been arrested for underage alcohol consumption . . . .

My sense is that the BTN has been a blessing financially, but has handicapped IU's purpose as a university to the point where i'm wondering whether it makes any sense to maintain big-time sports teams at all . . . maybe less "atmosphere" is more, when it comes to a college education.

in any case, I'm all for winning basketball games and championships, but not at the cost of the university's reputation and purpose. The problems that Crean is having with the bball program is beyond normal "kids will be kids" stuff . . . my sense is that we're sacrificing too much to have a "winning" program, at least with Crean as coach. As much as I'd like to give Wilson plenty of time to build the football program (I don't remember any stuff like what we're seeing with the bball team, with 8 times the number of kids in the program), my patience is worn thin - really thin - with Crean.

I can live with instability in talent with ones and dones, and I can live with growing marginally skilled guys with superior athleticism into basketball players . . . but I can't abide those things when the underlying culture basically has kids making no commitment to each other to be ready, willing and able to be a teammate the whole team can trust. Because when it comes down to it, trust is what makes every good and great basketball team what they are, and the lack of trust is what makes every bad and shoulda been team what they are.

If Crean can't get that across to the kids he's recruiting, then he's either (a) not up to being a coach at this program or (b) he's recruiting the wrong kids - in which case see (a).

AAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it was a bad accident, but i'll wait for more info before declaring it more than that.

i wonder if DD didn't just leave something in Holt's care, (keys or a phone say), and was trying to stop them before they left.

i'm also open to the possibility that DD might have been more impaired than Holt, and this more DD's fault than Holts, though that's pure conjecture at this point. (for all i know at this point, Holt may have had nothing he could do to avoid it).

that said, i wonder if IU players haven't had a .025 on fri night, going back to peach baskets and 2 hand set shots..

as for drug positives, are we talking pot, or something else?

as for the 3 other incidents, iirc, the one with Yogi and another player were for being underage in a bar, not being drunk.


have players changed all that much over the yrs, or is it the media that's changed.

should players be in bars or drinking at all, no.

but lets not make things out that these are a bunch of hoodlums, and Crean is Ma Kelly.




for full disclosure, i didn't drink or toke at all in college. (did toke after college for several yrs).

though i did know many guys in college that did have a few beers, or tokes, who were probably more conscientious students than i was. (not talking about the drunks at IU).

point being, while the drinking needs to stop, (is alcohol, the official national drug, not the worst drug by far).

seems like there is some element of "gotcha" at play here, by some major league hypocrites.


when i start hearing about assaults, spouse/date abuse, theft, hard drugs, by players, i'll be more concerned.

in the mean time, while i don't condone a beer or two, or any booze at all for that matter, i'm not yet declaring IU basketball, or it's players, as totally out of control either.

 

[Sope Creek]

OK, but only after . . .

we give Wilson a 3 year extension . . .

 

[Sope Creek]

Taken sepearately, I think you have a pretty good argument . . .

but when Yogi and Stan don't learn from Hanner getting arrested and suspended, and Troy and Stan don't learn from Hanner, Yogi and Stan getting arrested, and then Emmitt and Deven don't learn from Hanner, Yogi, Stan, Troy and Stan again getting arrested and/or suspended . . .

I don't think this is "aww, that's just small stuff that can be explained away" like we might normally treat it as. The cumulative effect is much, much greater than each individual piece . . . .