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What is a fair baseline for this year, and is the fanbase willing to accept hitting that mark even if it falls short of lofty expectations?

Hoosiers47614

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Nov 11, 2019
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While there definitely is more optimism around the program than there's been in a long, long while, (longer than I've been alive, granted, that only stretches back to the mid-90s), I do worry about myself and the fanbase in general keeping perspective on where this program actually is. There's no doubt that Allen is and has been building something special, but there's also no doubt that Indiana (as in every year since the divisions were created) plays in, at worst, the 2nd most difficult division in college football. Add to that a difficult crossover game to open the year, a brutal spotlight game against Cincy no one saw coming when it was scheduled, and a road game at Western Kentucky (which I personally think is trickier and more dangerous than people have given it credit for), and you've got a schedule full of potential losses and/or chances for the team to hit a run of bad form.

Additionally, I think you could reasonably argue that Indiana skipped a couple steps in program growth the past few years, going from a fringe bowl/5-7 program to a top 25 team to a top 10 team in just a couple years is not at all the typical trendline of a CFB program, particularly one bereft of any real history, and that we are due for a speed bump or setback on some level. Program development is rarely, if ever, linear and especially is not normally this steep. I've seen some people here, and in the general IU fan online spaces, claim that 9-3 or 10-2 should be the floor and that less would a disappointment. While I understand that feeling, after all who wants to be reserved when everything is still there for the taking, I don't think it is especially fair.

The most important thing for the program right now still should be solidifying its position as a consistent bowl program and somewhere in the middle-tier of the conference. After all, we are only two seasons removed from staying home for the winter in back to back seasons. Solidifying the ground underneath us, and establishing a new floor, is far more important in my opinion than hitting or raising our ceiling. Especially when it comes to developing the fanbase; while years like last year are fun, no doubt, they'll mean little in the long run if they become a flash in the pan. But if Indiana can build a consistent, competitive 7-5 or 8-4 as our floor, well, with time, more and more people will be drawn in and become less fair-weather, and greater fan support can only help build to greater things in the future.

With that in mind, and considering the difficulty of the road in front of us, I'd argue that seven wins, with or without one of them being a bowl game, is a successful year for the program. Sure, it won't take us to Pasadena, but it will continue to establish IU as a competent football program that is here to be competitive and solid. And that, in my opinion, is what the goal should continue to be. (That being said, anything beyond 7-5 or 7-6 would still be wonderful and is by no stretch of the imagination improbable or unlikely.)
 
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Personally I would be pleased with 7 wins. To measure progress I think that will be determined by our on the field play. Final scores can be misleading.
 
Coach Allen would tell you all not to show up at the games. If you don’t believe why bother? (Hyperbolic and I’m kidding, but I think him harping on belief has been a key to lifting this program out of the basement)

I think we are past laying eggs against teams we should beat. If we struggle against WKU then the season is a disappointment.
 
Realistically the floor is probably 6-6. Most likely record I think is 8-4.

A 7-5 record would be a mild disappointment but still keeps positive momentum going. 9-3 isn't unreasonable either, but this is a really tough schedule.

I don't think the problem skipped too many steps in development to get to the point we were last year. Yes Allen's first two seasons were 5-7, but there were some 50/50 games that didn't go our way...shocker.

2017 Purdue, MSU, Maryland, and Michigan losses were all 1 possession games. Michigan was in OT.

2018 MSU, Minnesota and Purdue were all close losses.

The foundation for this was being built and now this is a legit program. We aren't to the point to expect top 10 every year. There will still be an up and down seasons here and there, but the 4 win season should be a thing of the past for a while.
 
IU was very close to being a bowl team in Allen’s first two seasons. They finally got over the hump in 2019 and carried that momentum into 2020. I think the players believe they can and expect to compete with the best. That change in mindset is huge.
 
This team is talented, experienced and deep, unlike anything I've ever seen at IU. Anything less than 8-4 would, in my view, be hugely disappointing.

It's time for IU fans to move beyond that mindset of mediocrity that we accepted for so many years and start expecting big things. We have a real football team now, a team that can and should win many games.
 
Should Win - Idaho, WKU, Rutgers, MSU, Maryland
50-50% - Iowa, Purdue, Cincy, Minnesota, Michigan
10-90% - PSU, OSU

Anything less than 7 wins will be a little disappointing even though it is a great season for IU Football normally. Six wins and IU better darn well win the bowl game.
 
Should Win - Idaho, WKU, Rutgers, MSU, Maryland
50-50% - Iowa, Purdue, Cincy, Minnesota, Michigan
10-90% - PSU, OSU

Anything less than 7 wins will be a little disappointing even though it is a great season for IU Football normally. Six wins and IU better darn well win the bowl game.
Based on returning talent and experience, Minnesota at home should be more like 70%.

Indiana is a much better football team than Purdue but given that it's on the road and a rivalry I understand the concern. Would say that's more of 60%.
 
Should Win - Idaho, WKU, Rutgers, MSU, Maryland
50-50% - Iowa, Purdue, Cincy, Minnesota, Michigan
10-90% - PSU, OSU

Anything less than 7 wins will be a little disappointing even though it is a great season for IU Football normally. Six wins and IU better darn well win the bowl game.

I would definitely move Purdue to the 'should win' category. At least ahead of Maryland who is a better team at this point.

As for PSU, 10% chance? I think that's bonkers. ha
 
6 would be a disappointment, but I'd say it's the floor.
7 -9 wins is my realistic expectation & would maintain trajectory.
9+ would be ideal because of the number of seniors/upperclassmen, particularly on defense, I would expect some level of drop off with some many 3 yr. starters being gone after this year. It's not necessarily a "do or die" season, but they're primed with their best squad in some time plus a legit schedule that you can't scoff at.

A bowl win would be ideal to get off the streak. But I'd rather they go 13-0 and get smoked in the CFP than go 6-6 and take the Motor City Bowl.
 
6 would be a disappointment, but I'd say it's the floor.
7 -9 wins is my realistic expectation & would maintain trajectory.
9+ would be ideal because of the number of seniors/upperclassmen, particularly on defense, I would expect some level of drop off with some many 3 yr. starters being gone after this year. It's not necessarily a "do or die" season, but they're primed with their best squad in some time plus a legit schedule that you can't scoff at.

A bowl win would be ideal to get off the streak. But I'd rather they go 13-0 and get smoked in the CFP than go 6-6 and take the Motor City Bowl.
Six wins and a bowl isn't the objective anymore nor the mark of a good season. I'm sure CTA, staff and team are seriously targeting Dec 4 in Indy and then the CFP.
 
The defense has been the difference. We have had more talented teams on offense than the past two seasons, but they didn't gain the wins because we couldn't stop top teams. The ARE teams would score 40 points and lose. The 2015 team was possibly the most talented team we have had on offense.
 
The defense has been the difference. We have had more talented teams on offense than the past two seasons, but they didn't gain the wins because we couldn't stop top teams. The ARE teams would score 40 points and lose. The 2015 team was possibly the most talented team we have had on offense.
That team wins 8-9 games with Allen as DC.
 
While there definitely is more optimism around the program than there's been in a long, long while, (longer than I've been alive, granted, that only stretches back to the mid-90s), I do worry about myself and the fanbase in general keeping perspective on where this program actually is. There's no doubt that Allen is and has been building something special, but there's also no doubt that Indiana (as in every year since the divisions were created) plays in, at worst, the 2nd most difficult division in college football. Add to that a difficult crossover game to open the year, a brutal spotlight game against Cincy no one saw coming when it was scheduled, and a road game at Western Kentucky (which I personally think is trickier and more dangerous than people have given it credit for), and you've got a schedule full of potential losses and/or chances for the team to hit a run of bad form.

Additionally, I think you could reasonably argue that Indiana skipped a couple steps in program growth the past few years, going from a fringe bowl/5-7 program to a top 25 team to a top 10 team in just a couple years is not at all the typical trendline of a CFB program, particularly one bereft of any real history, and that we are due for a speed bump or setback on some level. Program development is rarely, if ever, linear and especially is not normally this steep. I've seen some people here, and in the general IU fan online spaces, claim that 9-3 or 10-2 should be the floor and that less would a disappointment. While I understand that feeling, after all who wants to be reserved when everything is still there for the taking, I don't think it is especially fair.

The most important thing for the program right now still should be solidifying its position as a consistent bowl program and somewhere in the middle-tier of the conference. After all, we are only two seasons removed from staying home for the winter in back to back seasons. Solidifying the ground underneath us, and establishing a new floor, is far more important in my opinion than hitting or raising our ceiling. Especially when it comes to developing the fanbase; while years like last year are fun, no doubt, they'll mean little in the long run if they become a flash in the pan. But if Indiana can build a consistent, competitive 7-5 or 8-4 as our floor, well, with time, more and more people will be drawn in and become less fair-weather, and greater fan support can only help build to greater things in the future.

With that in mind, and considering the difficulty of the road in front of us, I'd argue that seven wins, with or without one of them being a bowl game, is a successful year for the program. Sure, it won't take us to Pasadena, but it will continue to establish IU as a competent football program that is here to be competitive and solid. And that, in my opinion, is what the goal should continue to be. (That being said, anything beyond 7-5 or 7-6 would still be wonderful and is by no stretch of the imagination improbable or unlikely.)
Good post!
I want to win a bowl, which assumes at least 500.
I'd like to win the B1G East, and I believe we have a punchers chance, but I've been with the Hoosiers my whole life (both parents hold degrees) so I'll temper my expectations.
I expect to beat Iowa. That is my expectation baseline.
Go Hoosiers!
 
While there definitely is more optimism around the program than there's been in a long, long while, (longer than I've been alive, granted, that only stretches back to the mid-90s), I do worry about myself and the fanbase in general keeping perspective on where this program actually is. There's no doubt that Allen is and has been building something special, but there's also no doubt that Indiana (as in every year since the divisions were created) plays in, at worst, the 2nd most difficult division in college football. Add to that a difficult crossover game to open the year, a brutal spotlight game against Cincy no one saw coming when it was scheduled, and a road game at Western Kentucky (which I personally think is trickier and more dangerous than people have given it credit for), and you've got a schedule full of potential losses and/or chances for the team to hit a run of bad form.

Additionally, I think you could reasonably argue that Indiana skipped a couple steps in program growth the past few years, going from a fringe bowl/5-7 program to a top 25 team to a top 10 team in just a couple years is not at all the typical trendline of a CFB program, particularly one bereft of any real history, and that we are due for a speed bump or setback on some level. Program development is rarely, if ever, linear and especially is not normally this steep. I've seen some people here, and in the general IU fan online spaces, claim that 9-3 or 10-2 should be the floor and that less would a disappointment. While I understand that feeling, after all who wants to be reserved when everything is still there for the taking, I don't think it is especially fair.

The most important thing for the program right now still should be solidifying its position as a consistent bowl program and somewhere in the middle-tier of the conference. After all, we are only two seasons removed from staying home for the winter in back to back seasons. Solidifying the ground underneath us, and establishing a new floor, is far more important in my opinion than hitting or raising our ceiling. Especially when it comes to developing the fanbase; while years like last year are fun, no doubt, they'll mean little in the long run if they become a flash in the pan. But if Indiana can build a consistent, competitive 7-5 or 8-4 as our floor, well, with time, more and more people will be drawn in and become less fair-weather, and greater fan support can only help build to greater things in the future.

With that in mind, and considering the difficulty of the road in front of us, I'd argue that seven wins, with or without one of them being a bowl game, is a successful year for the program. Sure, it won't take us to Pasadena, but it will continue to establish IU as a competent football program that is here to be competitive and solid. And that, in my opinion, is what the goal should continue to be. (That being said, anything beyond 7-5 or 7-6 would still be wonderful and is by no stretch of the imagination improbable or unlikely.)
This is the most common sense post of any of the threads. It is so spot on that it really should be deleted!

Those of you that feel IU is deep...... you're delirious. Yes, we have and are successfully recruiting higher rated players, but just a few key injuries and this team would be decimated. Another 4 years, then maybe you can call them "deep".

That being said, if we stay reasonably healthy (and Penix plays every game) then 8-4 or 9-3 is a realistic outcome. I think we "can" win every game! I've never thought that before. That's progress!
 
I would definitely move Purdue to the 'should win' category. At least ahead of Maryland who is a better team at this point.

As for PSU, 10% chance? I think that's bonkers. ha
The last time IU and Purdue played, it was at IU and IU won by 3. IU should have won that game by three touchdowns, but didn't. Based on the game being at Purdue, and that Brohm coaches that game better then most, I'm content with 50%.

I do agree that PSU should be closer to a 30% chance - 50% of at IU.
 
The last time IU and Purdue played, it was at IU and IU won by 3. IU should have won that game by three touchdowns, but didn't. Based on the game being at Purdue, and that Brohm coaches that game better then most, I'm content with 50%.

I do agree that PSU should be closer to a 30% chance - 50% of at IU.

IU-PU last played in W. Laffy in 2019.
 
With this IUFB team I expect nothing less than big wins against the best on their schedule. The depth is there and the talent is there to have a very good season. We can't predict injuries that will impact the # of wins but short of some disastrous injuries I expect this team to win 10+ games going into the bowl game.
 
Six wins and a bowl isn't the objective anymore nor the mark of a good season. I'm sure CTA, staff and team are seriously targeting Dec 4 in Indy and then the CFP.
I didn't say it was.

And the coach & team damn well better be preparing to play in Indy in December. That's the attitude I expect out of them at least.
 
This is the most common sense post of any of the threads. It is so spot on that it really should be deleted!

Those of you that feel IU is deep...... you're delirious. Yes, we have and are successfully recruiting higher rated players, but just a few key injuries and this team would be decimated. Another 4 years, then maybe you can call them "deep".

That being said, if we stay reasonably healthy (and Penix plays every game) then 8-4 or 9-3 is a realistic outcome. I think we "can" win every game! I've never thought that before. That's progress!
Depth is a matter of degrees. IU could absorb some injuries here and there across multiple position groups and not be any worse off than last season as far as starter level talent goes. They don't however, probably have that 3rd string depth across the board to move up to 2nd string if they lose a starter and still run at a high level. At that point we might see the old style "play with anyone for 3 quarters then run out of gas" situation we grew so accustomed to watching.
 
The last time IU and Purdue played, it was at IU and IU won by 3. IU should have won that game by three touchdowns, but didn't. Based on the game being at Purdue, and that Brohm coaches that game better then most, I'm content with 50%.

I do agree that PSU should be closer to a 30% chance - 50% of at IU.
It was in WL in 2019.
 
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The last time IU and Purdue played, it was at IU and IU won by 3. IU should have won that game by three touchdowns, but didn't. Based on the game being at Purdue, and that Brohm coaches that game better then most, I'm content with 50%.

I do agree that PSU should be closer to a 30% chance - 50% of at IU.
That was 2 years ago with Peyton Ramsey and IU played at PU, not the other way around. IU was not as good and Purdue has continued to get worse.

You do remember Penn State started 0-5 last year and one of those losses was to IU? Penn State lost all but one of their D-Linemen and lost 2 of their O-Linemen. Clifford, who gets so much praise, led the B1G in INT's.

Is it possible they get better this year? Sure, and I would say its likely they improve from what was a disaster of a year......But IN won't digress any position and will also improve so I give IU the edge here. Regardless of what the prognosticators say. We all knew as the offseason went along that the pundits would begin to sour on Indiana as just a fluke deal due to COVID but don't let that nonsense fog up reality.
 
I don't have a number. I want to see if we compete - play well against others that play well.

Beating a team that sucks is no big accomplishment - losing to a superior team is no big red flag.

To me, the last 2 years we have proved we belonged on the field with the best in our league - OSU, Michigan, PSU. We beat PSU fair and square. We beat Michigan up and down the field. We had a legit chance to beat OSU.

If we play that well again, I'll be happy.

If we improve and MAX OUT our ability this year, and get no bad breaks, and still get some good breaks, and the refs let us play at the same level they let OSU play - we can play for a league title.

Beat Iowa
 
That was 2 years ago with Peyton Ramsey and IU played at PU, not the other way around. IU was not as good and Purdue has continued to get worse.

You do remember Penn State started 0-5 last year and one of those losses was to IU? Penn State lost all but one of their D-Linemen and lost 2 of their O-Linemen. Clifford, who gets so much praise, led the B1G in INT's.

Is it possible they get better this year? Sure, and I would say its likely they improve from what was a disaster of a year......But IN won't digress any position and will also improve so I give IU the edge here. Regardless of what the prognosticators say.

I think a lot of the "historical HAVE" teams lost the heart to play last year. Covid was weird. They didn't get their glory praise from 100,000 each week. Meanwhile, the "up and comers" like us stayed hungry.

And THAT is one of our greatest weapons - Tom Allen keeps his teams HUNGRY. Our "want to" factor is off the charts.
 
This is the most common sense post of any of the threads. It is so spot on that it really should be deleted!

Those of you that feel IU is deep...... you're delirious. Yes, we have and are successfully recruiting higher rated players, but just a few key injuries and this team would be decimated. Another 4 years, then maybe you can call them "deep".

That being said, if we stay reasonably healthy (and Penix plays every game) then 8-4 or 9-3 is a realistic outcome. I think we "can" win every game! I've never thought that before. That's progress!
It's deep in relative terms. Of course if IU has a few key injuries then yes their going to to be SOL against teams like Ohio State or Penn State. But in terms of talent disparity in the B10 it's Ohio State, Penn State, throw Michigan in there based on talent ranking and then it's everybody else by a considerable margin.

We saw last year that IU could withstand the loss of a star QB. Tuttle went into Madison and led IU to a victory. If IU loses a starting RB (who knows who it is going to be) they have two more quality RB's to step up. The receiving corps is a deep as its ever been. IU has about 7 or 8 offensive lineman that I feel comfortable with in the rotation.

Defensively they have one of the best secondaries in the country. They get back McCray-Ball and Raheem Layne. There will be guys who played 60-70% of snaps last year who won't start because those guys are back. Juwan Burgess and Bryant Fitzgerald played a ton last year and are getting demoted and are 4 and 5 year players. They added a few quality defensive line transfers who again are going to push guys out who played a bulk of the snaps last year.

Relative to the rest of the B10 sans OSU and Penn State, IU is "deep".
 
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Oops. My bad. Obviously, I was remembering last year's site and the game that never happened. Still should have won that game by a couple of TD's though.
If Justus hadn't gotten the yips it wouldn't have felt like nearly the nail biter it ended up being.

I was so pissed off when that game went to OT because at no time during the game (except maybe that first PU drive ending in the end zone INT) did I feel like Purdue was in it. But they just hung around.
 
Those of you that feel IU is deep...... you're delirious.
Here's the depth chart. Looks pretty good to me. But who cares what I think. What does the coach say? This is from my link below:

"Tom Allen said Friday that this is the deepest team he's ever had at Indiana, and there's plenty of truth to that. Especially on defense, when you run down the names of the second-team guys, most of them are very capable of being starters and all of them will see plenty of action every week in different packages."



 
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there's plenty of truth to that. Especially on defense, when you run down the names of the second-team guys, most of them are very capable of being starters
More importantly...have been starters before. Fitzgerald started every game at husky last year and is giving way to McCray-Ball who has started since his true freshman season. Burgess has played a ton at the safety position who is giving way to Raheem Layne who missed last year. Ziemba, Head, Miller all played a ton last year.

Nightmare scenario would be losing 3-4 starters on the offensive line, but only a handful of teams in the entire country could survive that and that goes against what the OP was saying.
 
Beating a team that sucks is no big accomplishment - losing to a superior team is no big red flag.

If we improve and MAX OUT our ability this year, and get no bad breaks, and still get some good breaks, and the refs let us play at the same level they let OSU play - we can play for a league title.

All I've ever asked is that we beat the teams we should and not blow one or more that should have been Ws. The rest is coaching, recruiting, and luck. Stealing one makes it all the better. We've finally gotten to that point. On paper I see 8 wins. That's good. If we blow one, I'm bummed. If we blow two, I'm pissed. And if we steal any, I'm putting on a big grin.
 
You asked, I'll answer...I personally think 9 wins in the regular season would make me happy. Throw in a January bowl win to cap a 10 win season, and I'd take it.

A 7 win season would disappoint me, it really would. When you've got our experience mixed with some serious talent, expectations should be pretty darn high. A 10+ win season shouldn't be unrealistic with this bunch.
 
Should Win - Idaho, WKU, Rutgers, MSU, Maryland
50-50% - Iowa, Purdue, Cincy, Minnesota, Michigan
10-90% - PSU, OSU

Anything less than 7 wins will be a little disappointing even though it is a great season for IU Football normally. Six wins and IU better darn well win the bowl game.
Poodoo and Cincy go in the should win category. Win one of the 50-50 and there is your eight.
 
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