What Doesnt Kill You?

HillzHoozier

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Mar 16, 2005
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In March of 2018, there were 249,000 total deaths in the US. In March of 2019, there were 253,000 total deaths in the US. This March, 4,053 Americans died with Covid19 listed as the cause.

It will be important to know if and by how much the number of total deaths in the US changes when the numbers for March and April are published.

So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above what would otherwise be expected.

Indeed, according to some sources, it is not clear that total deaths have increased significantly as a result of COVID-19. In a March 30 article for The Spectator, former UK National Health Service pathologist John Lee noted that the current number of deaths from COVID-19 does not indicate that the UK is experiencing "excess deaths." Lee writes:


The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19—so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.
 

thezinfan1

Freshman
Oct 20, 2014
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In March of 2018, there were 249,000 total deaths in the US. In March of 2019, there were 253,000 total deaths in the US. This March, 4,053 Americans died with Covid19 listed as the cause.

It will be important to know if and by how much the number of total deaths in the US changes when the numbers for March and April are published.

So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above what would otherwise be expected.

Indeed, according to some sources, it is not clear that total deaths have increased significantly as a result of COVID-19. In a March 30 article for The Spectator, former UK National Health Service pathologist John Lee noted that the current number of deaths from COVID-19 does not indicate that the UK is experiencing "excess deaths." Lee writes:


The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19—so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

His death total for March UK ended up being 75% low. How does the analysis look with 2/3rd of April and already 14k dead for the month?
 
Oct 12, 2013
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I dont know how accurate this will be unless you look at each category. Deaths from traffic accidents should go way down. Death from Flu or other infectious diseases should go down. Deaths from spousal homicide could go way up.
 
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mcmurtry66

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Mar 14, 2019
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I dont know how accurate this will be unless you look at each category. Deaths from traffic accidents should go way down. Death from Flu or other infectious diseases should go down. Deaths from spousal homicide could go way up.
Ken Nunn Law - Specializing in Personal Injury Divorce
 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat

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Margaritaville
I dont know how accurate this will be unless you look at each category. Deaths from traffic accidents should go way down. Death from Flu or other infectious diseases should go down. Deaths from spousal homicide could go way up.
I read this week that ironically traffic deaths are up. Apparently the empty roads lead to people driving too fast.
 

Marvin the Martian

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Sep 4, 2001
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There was a story yesterday of 10 nurses suspended because they were ordered to treat COVID patients without N95 masks.

Can we trust people to social distance? Looking at the protests around the nation, those people are not distancing. Can we trust them to distance if they are left to open up.

If we open up and people do not distance, police, fire, medical personnel WILL get the disease. Some WILL die. Or are we going to allow those people complete freedom in who they treat/save? There are already people saying they will not wear masks.

I see in the newspaper today that grocery store workers are wanting grocery stores shut down because of the numbers contracting. Is that going to improve by opening up more?

I have no reason to assume Trump's plan is wrong. I am not arguing that, I am arguing against immediate opening. Not everyone has a choice in going to work. When we "want" to work, how do we weigh those medical workers holding signs asking us to stay home to protect them.
 

mcmurtry66

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Mar 14, 2019
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There was a story yesterday of 10 nurses suspended because they were ordered to treat COVID patients without N95 masks.

Can we trust people to social distance? Looking at the protests around the nation, those people are not distancing. Can we trust them to distance if they are left to open up.

If we open up and people do not distance, police, fire, medical personnel WILL get the disease. Some WILL die. Or are we going to allow those people complete freedom in who they treat/save? There are already people saying they will not wear masks.

I see in the newspaper today that grocery store workers are wanting grocery stores shut down because of the numbers contracting. Is that going to improve by opening up more?

I have no reason to assume Trump's plan is wrong. I am not arguing that, I am arguing against immediate opening. Not everyone has a choice in going to work. When we "want" to work, how do we weigh those medical workers holding signs asking us to stay home to protect them.
We cannot trust people to social distance, because a percentage won't. hopefully it's just a small percentage. even the models incorporate the expectation of same. we also can't stay locked down too much longer because people will begin to ignore it in greater and greater numbers. we need to get through the next month, go back to work, enforce preventative measures as best as possible to tamp down cases, and recognize until we get a vaccine the new norm is going to be to live with - widespread testing is immaterial because it ain't coming and even if it does it's just a snapshot in time.
 

UncleMark

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Sep 1, 2001
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I see in the newspaper today that grocery store workers are wanting grocery stores shut down because of the numbers contracting. Is that going to improve by opening up more?
If I'm a grocery store clerk making $12.00/hr and I can get $600/wk if they shut down, I'm pretty sure I'm going to want them to shut down too.

From a strictly financial standpoint, I'm not sure how I'm going to feel about getting called back in a couple weeks (if that actually happens).
 

Marvin the Martian

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If I'm a grocery store clerk making $12.00/hr and I can get $600/wk if they shut down, I'm pretty sure I'm going to want them to shut down too.

From a strictly financial standpoint, I'm not sure how I'm going to feel about getting called back in a couple weeks (if that actually happens).

They do not want the stores shut down, per se. Think Kroger Clicklist as an example. There will still be workers.
 

UncleMark

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Sep 1, 2001
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They do not want the stores shut down, per se. Think Kroger Clicklist as an example. There will still be workers.
I take it that's their shop online thing? Order ahead of time then pick it up outside?

My wife used the WalMart version of that ages ago when she didn't trust me to do the shopping correctly after her knee surgery. She ordered her stuff, I went and got it. She still used it herself when she was able to get out but still had trouble getting around. I'm actually surprised she's not used it during this situation. You've mentioned people going to WalMart as recreation; I wouldn't go quite that far with her, but there's probably some of that going on.
 

Marvin the Martian

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Sep 4, 2001
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I take it that's their shop online thing? Order ahead of time then pick it up outside?

My wife used the WalMart version of that ages ago when she didn't trust me to do the shopping correctly after her knee surgery. She ordered her stuff, I went and got it. She still used it herself when she was able to get out but still had trouble getting around. I'm actually surprised she's not used it during this situation. You've mentioned people going to WalMart as recreation; I wouldn't go quite that far with her, but there's probably some of that going on.

Someone I know in Columbus, IN, posted that they went grocery shopping at Wal Mart Friday. She said the place was so packed she just left, people were spending their stimulus on TVs and the like.

Which is part of what the stimulus was for. Just not during the crisis, Columbus has been hit harder than Bloomington.
 
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iuwclurker

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Jul 6, 2015
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There was a story yesterday of 10 nurses suspended because they were ordered to treat COVID patients without N95 masks.

Can we trust people to social distance? Looking at the protests around the nation, those people are not distancing. Can we trust them to distance if they are left to open up.

If we open up and people do not distance, police, fire, medical personnel WILL get the disease. Some WILL die. Or are we going to allow those people complete freedom in who they treat/save? There are already people saying they will not wear masks.

I see in the newspaper today that grocery store workers are wanting grocery stores shut down because of the numbers contracting. Is that going to improve by opening up more?

I have no reason to assume Trump's plan is wrong. I am not arguing that, I am arguing against immediate opening. Not everyone has a choice in going to work. When we "want" to work, how do we weigh those medical workers holding signs asking us to stay home to protect them.
960x0.jpg


Jacksonville after beaches opened for “exercise only.”
 

Marvin the Martian

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960x0.jpg


Jacksonville after beaches opened for “exercise only.”

Hillz has mentioned going to get a pressure washer and making trips out to stores like 3 times a week. I wonder if he wears a mask? Social distances? I do not know, he may be great at it. But all it takes is one infected idiot to infect me. That is what makes this dangerous. Maybe we can pass a law making it legal to shoot anyone coming within 6 feet. I think that idea will attract conservative support.
 

tooold4

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Dec 13, 2018
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Hillz has mentioned going to get a pressure washer and making trips out to stores like 3 times a week. I wonder if he wears a mask? Social distances? I do not know, he may be great at it. But all it takes is one infected idiot to infect me. That is what makes this dangerous. Maybe we can pass a law making it legal to shoot anyone coming within 6 feet. I think that idea will attract conservative support.


Clean up in aisle 5,1, and 7. For some reason I think the House of Reps could look like a scene from a Tarantino movie.
 

82hoosier

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Sep 7, 2001
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960x0.jpg


Jacksonville after beaches opened for “exercise only.”

what I see in this picture is a few hundred people moving their legs. People getting exercise. People getting sunshine. My guess is they are also saying to each other good afternoon and how are you doing? My guess is that the chance of a virus transmission is much less than politicians in Washington with their noses stuck up each other’s ass.
 

Marvin the Martian

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Sep 4, 2001
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what I see in this picture is a few hundred people moving their legs. People getting exercise. People getting sunshine. My guess is they are also saying to each other good afternoon and how are you doing? My guess is that the chance of a virus transmission is much less than politicians in Washington with their noses stuck up each other’s ass.

There is no evidence the disease is spread anally...
 

iuwclurker

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Jul 6, 2015
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what I see in this picture is a few hundred people moving their legs. People getting exercise. People getting sunshine. My guess is they are also saying to each other good afternoon and how are you doing? My guess is that the chance of a virus transmission is much less than politicians in Washington with their noses stuck up each other’s ass.
There are several here who could report anecdotally on such anal transmission.
 

INRanger27

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Jan 11, 2005
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In March of 2018, there were 249,000 total deaths in the US. In March of 2019, there were 253,000 total deaths in the US. This March, 4,053 Americans died with Covid19 listed as the cause.

It will be important to know if and by how much the number of total deaths in the US changes when the numbers for March and April are published.

So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above what would otherwise be expected.

Indeed, according to some sources, it is not clear that total deaths have increased significantly as a result of COVID-19. In a March 30 article for The Spectator, former UK National Health Service pathologist John Lee noted that the current number of deaths from COVID-19 does not indicate that the UK is experiencing "excess deaths." Lee writes:


The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19—so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.
Hillz, I like your jacket in this story.