Way-too-early top 25 college basketball teams for next year

Discussion in 'TheHoosier.com IU Hoop Forum' started by IU? I'm Fine, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Lol... Don't beat yourself up. I'm the one that did it and it took me an hour to find it and another half hour looking at the chart and the associated data to remember what the whole study was even about. At first glance, I didn't remember what the 45's were either.
     
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  2. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    But does those nba salary levels correlate to college team performances? That’s where I’m seeing the disconnect.
     
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  3. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    I think you might be making a key point here, if I'm seeing where you're headed. Coaches are looking for specific things relative to system, coachability and team needs etc. From their perspective, the 120th ranked point guard might be a higher recruiting priority than the 38th ranked small forward.

    I think coaches don't need recruiting rankings, so they tend to downplay their accuracy. In study after study I've found the rankings (as a whole) to be fantastic. There are errors on an individual basis though, and I'm guessing that coaches often don't make the same errors as the recruiting analysts. I may not even be right about that though, because even the best coaches have recruited complete busts.
     
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  4. minneman

    minneman Senior
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    Very interesting and thanks for posting.

    I agree that it shows that the rankings do a decent job. There are definitely tiers of talent.

    Unsurprisingly, the top 5 is pretty much a guarantee. This is probably due to a couple of factors. 1) They're much better than their peers and an obvious choice for that high of a ranking. 2) They're drafted high because of that and their rookie contract gets them their $5M.

    6-10 not quite as good as the top 5 but still significantly better than everyone else.

    Those seem to be the only groups that it works well by groups of 5. 11-20 looks like just being top 20 is enough to distinguish them from lower ranked peers but within that group the exact ranking might not matter much. For example, #12 might not actually be much better than #18. It looks like this trend is the same for 21-30 and 31-40. 41 and beyond are roughly equal and unlikely to play in the NBA.

    Interestingly, if you want someone that might be slightly "under ranked" it appears from your numbers that you want someone in bottom half of those groups of 10.
     
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  5. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Yeah, what you noticed was a bit odd. I'm thinking it would balance itself out if I had a few more classes in the study, but maybe not.
     
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  6. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Also to your point, I think this is the problem with trying to deduce how good a team might be based purely on recruiting rankings + experience, like my roster rankings try to do.

    Coaches realize the importance of role players relative to team building. Recruiting rankings don't give proper appreciation to the guys that just make your team better (maybe even great) by doing the little things that don't necessarily get you paid in the NBA.
     
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  7. Coach Geez

    Coach Geez Benchwarmer
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    Then don't use them jackass. It's one guy giving an opinion that some of us enjoy. Holy hell.
     
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  8. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    I really like what you’ve put together . . . I’m just trying to see if / where there is “drift” in that the rankings begin to be less predictive and reliable. Thanks again. Good stuff.
     
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  9. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Oh yeah, I get that! I'm right there with ya. I think the further down the rankings you go the more important something like offer list becomes. I've been thinking of trying to devise a system based on offers for players outside the Top 100, but until now I haven't had as much spare time to do the stuff I used to do. I've got nothing but time now, but I'm not feeling particularly motivated either.
     
  10. ndhuntington

    ndhuntington Sophomore
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    I didn't see anybody last year in the big ten that I would call elite. The only thing separating Indiana, MSU, and Maryland is coaching. Great coaches find a way to win.
     
  11. IU? I'm Fine

    IU? I'm Fine All-Big Ten
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    So it really doesn't matter what talent is on the team or whether the team has each position filled. It doesn't mean a thing if a starting guard is injured or is having a bad day. A great coach can just will 25 wins each season. Every season. Even against better teams and coaches.
     
  12. Coach Geez

    Coach Geez Benchwarmer
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    He's delusional. Both Maryland and Michigan State had exceptionally better talent than Indiana this year. Not even a comparison.
     
  13. snarlcakes

    snarlcakes Junior
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    IU should be a top 10 team next year. We will be an extremely experienced and talented team. For comparison, I like our roster next year more than Maryland’s this year who was a top 10 team for most of the year. It should be a fun year.
     
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  14. minneman

    minneman Senior
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    I agree. The one thing that can hold this team back is if no one develops enough of a 3-point shot to keep defenses honest. The guards did seem decent shooters when they were catching it ready to shoot, but that didn't seem to happen often enough. Hopefully, adding Lander will address that if he is able to penetrate and kick out to set shooters. Someone able to do that was missing this year. It was either pass around the perimeter or pass inside, often to a double team. If TJD improves passing out of double teams that would help, too.

    There is potential to be a better perimeter shooting team next year. Hunter came on towards the end of the year and closed out the season shooting a bit over 40% the last 10 or 12 games, I think. Durham shot 38% for the season. Franklin shot terribly for the season but he did have a few games were he was on fire so if he can become consistent in the off season that would help the team. I don't expect the freshmen to shoot well, but maybe one of them will surprise me. Phinisee improved a couple of percentage points from his freshman year. If he can do that again he would be an okay 3-point shooter at around 35-36%.

    That said, with the experience that is returning, I expect the defense to be consistently good all year long. So even if the shooting doesn't improve much that should be good enough to keep the games close. Assuming, of course, that experience has also taught them they need to play hard every minute of every game. That is more of a key to a successful season for this team than even better shooting.
     
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  15. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    In the Big 10, presumably.
     
  16. hondo314

    hondo314 All-Big Ten
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    Zinger! Lookout!
     
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  17. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    Ferguson under Shelter in Place must be an improvement.
     
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  18. hondo314

    hondo314 All-Big Ten
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    Zap! Pow!
     
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  19. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    Even with “e-learning” (or whatever they call it in Ferguson), you’ve been working on your vocabulary. Impressive for someone like you.
     
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  20. hondo314

    hondo314 All-Big Ten
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    clank
     
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  21. birdforbogey

    birdforbogey Junior
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    Have you ever posted about basketball? The only post you make is following a few posters around and attacking them after their every post. After thinking about it, this is your first basketball post describing IU’s shooting this part year. Carry on. BAU
     
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  22. hondo314

    hondo314 All-Big Ten
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    You got it, Dr. Naismith. The board awaits your next “basketball post” with bated breathe.
     
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  23. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    Found that Thesaurus your sister hid from you last Fall?
     
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  24. hondo314

    hondo314 All-Big Ten
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    good onezzzzzzzz
     
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  25. Birnk403

    Birnk403 Senior
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    Or maybe not . . .
     
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  26. IU? I'm Fine

    IU? I'm Fine All-Big Ten
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