Indiana football won eight games in 2019 and made an appearance in the Gator Bowl – a game which is closer to the top of the Bowl food chain than it is to the bottom. But sports fans can be fickle. They can be insatiable and even unreasonable.
There is a contingent of IU fans on the message boards and social media claiming that this is the same old Indiana. The Hoosiers, they assert, haven’t really improved much, if at all.
But is this the case? Were the 2019 Hoosiers fool's gold? A mirage? An aberration? An anomaly?
After all, the haters will say, IU won eight games against teams with a combined record of 25-71 and a combined winning percentage of .260. Not one team, they say, had a winning record.
Indiana’s best win, the pessimists will point out, was at Nebraska who finished 5-7 and rated 52nd according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. The average SP+ ranking of the opponents IU beat was 90.1.
The Hoosiers had Michigan State (7-6) and Tennessee (8-5) both on the ropes but were unable to close out. Good teams, they say, find a way to win and Indiana was unable to do so.
Indiana started out 7-2 but finished by losing three of its last four, keyboard warriors will note.
Under Tom Allen IU has had two of its best recruiting classes ever. But, some will say, class rankings are going up overall across the board. Relative to the rest of the Big Ten Indiana still finds itself in the bottom half to the bottom third of the league in terms of its class rank.
How seriously should Hoosier fans take such negative arguments? Are these the same old Hoosiers?
To quote the great Mark Twain, there are three types of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics. Or as a teacher I once had liked to say, if you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything.
In today’s college football teams don’t win eight games by being pushovers. Mediocre teams may beat teams that are better than them but often they will turn around and lose to a bad team they should probably beat.
Indiana beat every single team it was supposed to beat in 2019 – a feat that is hard to pull off in any sport.
The Hoosiers finished the regular season ranked 24th in the SP+ ratings. SP+ is not an evaluation of resume but a measure of statistics, outcomes and efficiencies that correlate most with winning. In other words if we go by measures most associated with winning Indiana was a Top 25 team in 2019.
For example, the Hoosiers finished the year highly ranked in the following categories:
One of the big improvements from say 2016 to 2019 is depth. Even in 2018 there were a couple games where Indiana was competitive for three quarters but then ran out of gas in the fourth due to a lack of depth, especially on defense.
In 2019 Indiana definitely had an upgrade in depth and they should be even better in 2020 as Tom Allen and company continue to develop recruits.
Don’t forget that against Tennessee Coy Cronk, Simon Stepaniak, Stevie Scott and Donavan Hale were all out. That’s four starters and Indiana was not only competitive, the Hoosiers should have won the Gator Bowl against a solid SEC opponent. This is not an excuse but a testament to the depth that is being developed in Bloomington.
Recruiting class rankings and player ratings are a good tool to utilize and evaluate but they are still subjective and not entirely reliable. It’s nice to be loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits obviously but programs like Wisconsin and Iowa have shown that developing 3 star players into very good Big Ten football players over the course of four years is another way to have success in terms of building a program.
The Hoosiers won three league games on the road this season, something that would have been unthinkable in say 2014. Those three road victories came against Maryland, Nebraska and Purdue. All three of those games were hard fought Big Ten brawls that required grit and fortitude to pull out the win – traits not necessarily associated with past IU teams.
Indiana was in five very close games and they were 3-2 in those games (3-3 if you include Penn State, a legit Top 15 team). That’s not the end of the world.
Sure Indiana has room to improve. Defensively they need to create more turnovers in 2020 and the secondary has to play better. There are some game management issues that need to be addressed by the coaching staff. And at some point in order to take the next step IU is going to need to beat Wisconsin or Michigan State or Michigan or Penn State.
But overall this Indiana program has clearly improved and has taken several steps forward in the last few years. To argue that they haven’t is either ignorant or willfully defeatist and cynical.
It’s happening slowly and incrementally and to those not paying close attention the baby steps can be missed. But that’s just an indication that it’s being done the right way.
There are no shortcuts.
So trust the process Hoosier fans! 2020 can’t get here soon enough.
Originally Published Here
There is a contingent of IU fans on the message boards and social media claiming that this is the same old Indiana. The Hoosiers, they assert, haven’t really improved much, if at all.
But is this the case? Were the 2019 Hoosiers fool's gold? A mirage? An aberration? An anomaly?
After all, the haters will say, IU won eight games against teams with a combined record of 25-71 and a combined winning percentage of .260. Not one team, they say, had a winning record.
Indiana’s best win, the pessimists will point out, was at Nebraska who finished 5-7 and rated 52nd according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. The average SP+ ranking of the opponents IU beat was 90.1.
The Hoosiers had Michigan State (7-6) and Tennessee (8-5) both on the ropes but were unable to close out. Good teams, they say, find a way to win and Indiana was unable to do so.
Indiana started out 7-2 but finished by losing three of its last four, keyboard warriors will note.
Under Tom Allen IU has had two of its best recruiting classes ever. But, some will say, class rankings are going up overall across the board. Relative to the rest of the Big Ten Indiana still finds itself in the bottom half to the bottom third of the league in terms of its class rank.
How seriously should Hoosier fans take such negative arguments? Are these the same old Hoosiers?
To quote the great Mark Twain, there are three types of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics. Or as a teacher I once had liked to say, if you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything.
In today’s college football teams don’t win eight games by being pushovers. Mediocre teams may beat teams that are better than them but often they will turn around and lose to a bad team they should probably beat.
Indiana beat every single team it was supposed to beat in 2019 – a feat that is hard to pull off in any sport.
The Hoosiers finished the regular season ranked 24th in the SP+ ratings. SP+ is not an evaluation of resume but a measure of statistics, outcomes and efficiencies that correlate most with winning. In other words if we go by measures most associated with winning Indiana was a Top 25 team in 2019.
For example, the Hoosiers finished the year highly ranked in the following categories:
- Time of Possession – 7th
- 3rd down conversion percentage – 15th
- Passing offense – 15th
- Team Passing Efficiency – 23rd
One of the big improvements from say 2016 to 2019 is depth. Even in 2018 there were a couple games where Indiana was competitive for three quarters but then ran out of gas in the fourth due to a lack of depth, especially on defense.
In 2019 Indiana definitely had an upgrade in depth and they should be even better in 2020 as Tom Allen and company continue to develop recruits.
Don’t forget that against Tennessee Coy Cronk, Simon Stepaniak, Stevie Scott and Donavan Hale were all out. That’s four starters and Indiana was not only competitive, the Hoosiers should have won the Gator Bowl against a solid SEC opponent. This is not an excuse but a testament to the depth that is being developed in Bloomington.
Recruiting class rankings and player ratings are a good tool to utilize and evaluate but they are still subjective and not entirely reliable. It’s nice to be loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits obviously but programs like Wisconsin and Iowa have shown that developing 3 star players into very good Big Ten football players over the course of four years is another way to have success in terms of building a program.
The Hoosiers won three league games on the road this season, something that would have been unthinkable in say 2014. Those three road victories came against Maryland, Nebraska and Purdue. All three of those games were hard fought Big Ten brawls that required grit and fortitude to pull out the win – traits not necessarily associated with past IU teams.
Indiana was in five very close games and they were 3-2 in those games (3-3 if you include Penn State, a legit Top 15 team). That’s not the end of the world.
Sure Indiana has room to improve. Defensively they need to create more turnovers in 2020 and the secondary has to play better. There are some game management issues that need to be addressed by the coaching staff. And at some point in order to take the next step IU is going to need to beat Wisconsin or Michigan State or Michigan or Penn State.
But overall this Indiana program has clearly improved and has taken several steps forward in the last few years. To argue that they haven’t is either ignorant or willfully defeatist and cynical.
It’s happening slowly and incrementally and to those not paying close attention the baby steps can be missed. But that’s just an indication that it’s being done the right way.
There are no shortcuts.
So trust the process Hoosier fans! 2020 can’t get here soon enough.
Originally Published Here
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