Turns out there wasn't a whole lot of ticket-splitting, after all

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

538 Analysis: Other than a small handful of outliers, congressional candidates ran pretty close to their presidential counterparts.

There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the …

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Normally don't bump my own threads, but I'm surprised no one had anything to say about this. Maybe it just got lost in the shuffle? Genuinely interested what everyone has to say, since most of us here assumed just the opposite was true.

 

[Morrison]

I read an article similar to this a week or two ago and it echoed this for the most part. It was eye opening to me.

Basically, Biden improved on the Hillary coalition with college educated white voters, but didn’t improve on any other group. AA support was roughly the same as 2016, liberal vote was roughly the same, registered Dems the same, registered Pubs the same, blue collar vote the same with Trump not losing that group from 2016.

Biden kicked ass in increasing the Clinton edge with college educated whites at the top of the ticket. Down ballot votes were cast along party lines, skewing toward incumbents. Basically, people were satisfied with the status quo, but college educated whites of both parties wanted Trump gone.

I am surprised there weren’t more people who wanted Trump gone, and equally surprised he kept all the blue collar vote, especially against Biden. There are some worrying metrics in this for Dems going forward, IMO.

 

[UncleMark]

Normally don't bump my own threads, but I'm surprised no one had anything to say about this. Maybe it just got lost in the shuffle? Genuinely interested what everyone has to say, since most of us here assumed just the opposite was true.

Truth? I'm exhausted. I'm glad Trump's gone, disappointed we didn't (yet) get the Senate, and am hoping there can be some kind of truce with Mitch that will allow Biden to move forward. On top of that I've got a lot on my plate personally and professionally right now.

Not on point directly, and it doesn't describe where I'm at fully, but there's a lot here from Dahlia Lithwick that rings true to me:

The Show Is Over. The Horror Is Still Here.

Defeating Trump was never going to be enough.

slate.com

Becalmed is that sense that you are going to end up somewhere, but without any sense of where you are headed. It is perhaps a fitting state of being during holidays, in lockdown, waiting for vaccines, and with profound gratitude that, for all the division and strife, nobody is in fact out on the streets murdering one another. Everyone appears to be in agreement that whatever this strange floaty period is, it’s still eminently preferable to civil war.​

 

[outside shooter]

It seems like a manifestation of very effective gerrymandering.

 

[twenty02]

I think I mentioned this in the week after the election.

Popular vote totals.... so ignoring gerrymandering, Senate bias, etc:


Biden 51.1%
Trump 47.1%

House Dems 50.5%
House GOP 48.1%

Not drastic ticket splitting, but probably just enough to tilt the POTUS outcome. Also some more GOP voters that likely went to Jorgensen, looking at the splits.

 

[twenty02]

It seems like a manifestation of very effective gerrymandering.

Not really. 50.5% of 435 seats is 221 seats. Pretty darn close to what Dems will end up with.

 

[iuwclurker]

Normally don't bump my own threads, but I'm surprised no one had anything to say about this. Maybe it just got lost in the shuffle? Genuinely interested what everyone has to say, since most of us here assumed just the opposite was true.

Just don’t agree with their conclusion. No one ever expected a high percentage of ticket splitting. The money question is, was there enough ticket splitting to make a difference? In Georgia, beyond question:

​

And despite Biden winning Georgia with 49.5 percent of the vote, Democrat Jon Ossoff got just 47.9 percent in the regular Senate election, and Democrats in the special election combined for just 48.4 percent — problems Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will need to solve in next month’s runoffs.​

Biden wins the EC without Georgia, but the Ds will lose the Senate absent the significant ticket splitting against Drumpf.