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Trump, Republicans and Polling

Trump has volunteered to take a drug test. Biden is the one refusing.
I realize that. He should as it’s a ridiculous claim. I imagine Trump has plenty of people who would cover for him or know how to beat it. He probably thinks he could just have someone pee in a cup for him.
 
I realize that. He should as it’s a ridiculous claim. I imagine Trump has plenty of people who would cover for him or know how to beat it. He probably thinks he could just have someone pee in a cup for him.
I'm surprised taking periodic drug tests isn't mandatory.
 
I realize that. He should as it’s a ridiculous claim. I imagine Trump has plenty of people who would cover for him or know how to beat it. He probably thinks he could just have someone pee in a cup for him.

If you were Biden wouldn't you just come out and say I will take a drug test as soon as you release your taxes?
 
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Since when does trump get to dictate drug tests? He should prove there is an actually reason to suspect it first.

Go watch the debates where there were like 10 candidates on stage and compare it to when he was just debating Bernie. Again, if Joe has nothing to hide he should just agree to do it. But of course he would be right to insist Trump release some tax returns.
 
Go watch the debates where there were like 10 candidates on stage and compare it to when he was just debating Bernie. Again, if Joe has nothing to hide he should just agree to do it. But of course he would be right to insist Trump release some tax returns.
Wow, the ol' "if he has nothing to hide, he should just do it" argument. What year do the cover that in Constitutional Law School?
 
It wouldn't make a difference. He would pass and trumpers would say he knew it was coming so he just stayed away from drugs tip after he got tested.

Biden on drugs is more farfetched than trump being a female farmer from south america that had a sex change. Just complete crap.
 
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I doubt a Presidential debate has ever been as important as the one tomorrow. At least in my lifetime. The bar is low for Joe but if has a you know thing moment, 200 million dead from COVID, 150 million dead from gun violence, etc moment he is done. If Trump was smart he would promise to immediately release his tax returns if Joe agrees to immediately take a piss test after the debate. Joe will of course say no as he'll be jacked up on Ritalin or Adderall and Trump could put the whole tax issue to rest.

This is your candidate Dems.

Oh, I’m sure the lying dolt will promise to release his taxes. Why not, it’ll just be ANOTHER chance to lie. There ain’t no way the thin skinned one is going to let everyone know for sure that he’s an incompetent businessman and will likely either have to declare bankruptcy or spend some serious jail time once he loses.

As for Biden, Trump and the Republicans have set expectations so low, Joe is going to clear the cognitive bar with ease. Bur would Trump allow a drug test for his amphetamine abuse? I bet Trump has at least 2 moments where he rambles incoherently about things that have nothing to do with any of the relevant topics at hand. Mainly just victimized rants filled with a couple conspiracy theory’s and plenty of lies.
 
Go watch the debates where there were like 10 candidates on stage and compare it to when he was just debating Bernie. Again, if Joe has nothing to hide he should just agree to do it. But of course he would be right to insist Trump release some tax returns.
Agree he did much better with just one person, but that’s pretty understandable. Taking shots from every side and trying to defend yourself as a favorite is pretty difficult, especially when it’s fast paced, people interrupting, etc. He did much better with just one person and expect him to do well tomorrow.
 
Agree he did much better with just one person, but that’s pretty understandable. Taking shots from every side and trying to defend yourself as a favorite is pretty difficult, especially when it’s fast paced, people interrupting, etc. He did much better with just one person and expect him to do well tomorrow.

This could be a spin but a competitor's campaign manager said that Biden was super sensitive to offending anyone during the dem debates as he was the leader and wanted to run on unity while not offending women and minorities.

He won't have that concern tomorrow.
 
I doubt a Presidential debate has ever been as important as the one tomorrow. At least in my lifetime. The bar is low for Joe but if has a you know thing moment, 200 million dead from COVID, 150 million dead from gun violence, etc moment he is done. If Trump was smart he would promise to immediately release his tax returns if Joe agrees to immediately take a piss test after the debate. Joe will of course say no as he'll be jacked up on Ritalin or Adderall and Trump could put the whole tax issue to rest.

This is your candidate Dems.



Considering that basically no presidential debates are important in any manner, that's quite a statement.

Nobody is changing their vote based upon these debates. They never do.
 
Most of you hate Trump. Which is fine if that's how you like to live. Tuesday, the country will get to see Joe off prompter, unprotected. I don't expect the poor ol' feller to do very well.

Let's see what the polls look like Wednesday morning.



Reagan was suffering from full blown Alzheimers during his second term.... and suffered pretty significant confusion and poor performance during the first 1984 debate. Yet we know how that election turned out, and Reagan was celebrated by Republicans for a generation after leaving office. I don't think the American public even cares all that much about a President having his full faculties.

Attempt to listen to Trump put a coherent thought together on anything, beyond a personal attack on someone or a boast about himself, about the only 2 things that can keep his attention. haven't heard a single, intelligent sentence from his mouth in years.
 
President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....
Sound very convincing! You should bet every penny you have on Trump winning the election!
 
Since when does trump get to dictate drug tests? He should prove there is an actually reason to suspect it first.
This is one of Trump's favorite tactics: the double bind. A double bind is putting the other guy into a dilemna that hurts the other guy no matter what he chooses. You should look up "double bind" to learn more.

If Biden takes a drug test, Trump thinks that makes Biden look weak by doing what Trump bullied him into doing. If Biden refuses, Trump claims Biden is hiding something. Either way, Trump thinks he wins.
 
This is one of Trump's favorite tactics: the double bind. A double bind is putting the other guy into a dilemna that hurts the other guy no matter what he chooses. You should look up "double bind" to learn more.

If Biden takes a drug test, Trump thinks that makes Biden look weak by doing what Trump bullied him into doing. If Biden refuses, Trump claims Biden is hiding something. Either way, Trump thinks he wins.

It’s obvious Biden is on roids. It’s easy to tell when someone in their mid to late seventies is juicing.
history-of-wwe-wellness-policy-violators-1487983799-800.jpg
 
I realize that. He should as it’s a ridiculous claim. I imagine Trump has plenty of people who would cover for him or know how to beat it. He probably thinks he could just have someone pee in a cup for him.

As could Biden. What is your point?

They should be drug tested. We drug test all of our employees.
 
I honestly don’t know. If my anecdotal noticing of homemade signs for Trump in rural areas plays out similarly to 2016, we’ll have similar results.

That said, it does seem like there is more of a unified push for people to vote this year. In 2016 I knew people who either abstained from voting or wore voting third party as a badge of honor. I don’t seem to be seeing that as much now.

All that to say, I’m still not sure how Ohio will go.

Ohio is within the margin of error and likely will be into November. As long as that is the case, I tend to favor the side which took the state the election before.

I think there are more people in this country than we thought who know how inadequate he is at being POTUS overall, but they'll still vote for him because they think he's good for tax cuts and their stock portfolios.

These people are also not willing to admit they're voting for him. I think, in part, this group plays a role in the polls being skewed.

The issue with polling is that national Presidential polls mean very little the closer we get to an actual election. If you think about it, the polling was accurate. HRC was favored by about 3 points on average, and she won the popular vote by 2.1%, just under 3M voters.


A lot can change in five weeks, but the number of opportunities Biden is ahead above the margin of error in states he needs to flip is (or should be) very troubling to Trump. HRC bowed out of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, and I doubt very much Biden does that. Pennsylvania is tighter than it should be, but I tend to think the Philly/eastern third will come through for him.

Michigan: Biden +6
Pennsylvania: Biden +5
Wisconsin: Biden +6

I think HRC felt they would sweep those states, but she lost all three. Polling didn't match her campaign's confidence.

Two other states/areas Trump won:
Maine 2: Biden +3 (margin of error)
Nebraska 2: Biden +6
Arizona: Biden +3.5 (just outside the margin of error)


Biden with slight leads in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. All states Trump won, all well within the margin of error. I just assume they will end up going for Trump. There are no states Trump didn't win in 2016 where he is leading as of now, and he's only narrowly ahead in Georgia, Iowa and Texas. So that's six states Trump won, which are well within the margin of error.

All of that can be shuffled after tonight's debate.
 
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Considering that basically no presidential debates are important in any manner, that's quite a statement.

Nobody is changing their vote based upon these debates. They never do.

No, but there are plenty of undecideds who pragmatically wait to get through the debates.
 
Ohio is within the margin of error and likely will be into November. As long as that is the case, I tend to favor the side which took the state the election before.



The issue with polling is that national Presidential polls mean very little the closer we get to an actual election. If you think about it, the polling was accurate. HRC was favored by about 3 points on average, and she won the popular vote by 2.1%, just under 3M voters.


A lot can change in five weeks, but the number of opportunities Biden is ahead above the margin of error in states he needs to flip is (or should be) very troubling to Trump. HRC bowed out of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, and I doubt very much Biden does that. Pennsylvania is tighter than it should be, but I tend to think the Philly/eastern third will come through for him.

Michigan: Biden +6
Pennsylvania: Biden +5
Wisconsin: Biden +6

I think HRC felt they would sweep those states, but she lost all three. Polling didn't match her campaign's confidence.

Two other states/areas Trump won:
Maine 2: Biden +3 (margin of error)
Nebraska 2: Biden +6
Arizona: Biden +3.5 (just outside the margin of error)


Biden with slight leads in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. All states Trump won, all well within the margin of error. I just assume they will end up going for Trump. There are no states Trump didn't win in 2016 where he is leading as of now, and he's only narrowly ahead in Georgia, Iowa and Texas. So that's six states Trump won, which are well within the margin of error.

All of that can be shuffled after tonight's debate.

Hillary was way ahead in those Midwest states in 2016.






Look at WI, MN, and OH especially. The polls were off by around 6 points. And I'll be surprised if PA doesn't go red again.

 
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Sure, and that young whippersnapper at the other podium is going to bedazzle us all.

Wonder if he'll have another case of the sniffles.
And the IMPOTUS will also not have the use of his beloved (2) teleprompters which means 45 seconds in on the first Chris Wallace question he goes off the rails and goes to his safe spot....making shit up and spewing out of his pie hole 😄
 
Look at WI, MN, and OH especially. The polls were off by around 6 points.

I don't think we'll see that anomaly again, not that polls won't shift and/or tighten up. The anomaly being polls being that off. There was a lot of talk (podcasts) about state polls being off, relative to other years, and how accurate they normally have been.

So did they view 2016 as an outlier? They did, but Nate Silver, especially, talked at great length of pollsters changing their methods. (Any qualitative polling analysis, I've taken straight from listening to Silver on a few podcasts (not his own) since the 2016 election.)

538's numbers were tighter heading into the election, and while they also use an aggregate for much of their analysis, they place values on each poll in terms of methods and sample size.
 
The big difference between now and 2016 in the polling is Biden's margin has been pretty stable for months and he's much closer to 50% or above 50%+ in some key states in the polls.

Also there are many fewer undecideds and Biden is more liked than Hillary was.

Pollsters are also weighting for Education/2016 vote now.

It'd take a polling error AND Trump winning undecideds by a big margin (when the crosstabs show it's more likely those folks will break to Biden) for Trump to pull out a win.

Nailed it. The 50% Mark is huge. And Biden has been either very close to it or over it for many months now.

I’d add that Trump has one thing now that he didn’t have in 2016. That thing is a record. And with respect to COVID & healthcare, it’s atrocious. Those are the two top two issues for folks this time around, and it’s not even close.

The ONLY way that Biden loses now is if it’s stolen in the courts. And all votes are NOT counted.

Kind of similar to what happened in FL, w/ Bush v Gore. When an opinion by the Supreme Court states that the following analysis is ONLY for this case, and cannot become precedent, you know something is really screwed up. That’s just not how American law works.

Sadly, voter suppression & not counting all votes are Trump’s plans/only plays now. It’s been very transparent for the past several months. There have been lawsuits filed in 44(!) states at last count. All have been filed in efforts to limit the amount of votes counted, at least from the republican side.

What happened to federalism? Didn’t that used to be one of the main planks of conservative thought? If you’re a true “conservative” (as opposed to “republican”), then you should allow the states to run the elections within their borders as they see fit.

And before anyone whines about “voter fraud”, that argument isn’t working in the lower courts. That’s because there’s simply no evidence that it’s rampant and widespread.

A note- It’s best not to piss of the judge in your particular case. And one of the best ways to do it is to make frivolous and unfounded arguments. The courts aren’t sympathetic to the crap floating around in the right wing echo chamber. They still deal in facts. Decisions must be rooted in facts. Right now, there’s a lot of allegations/conspiracies being thrown out by the Republican side, but very little substance.

That may be changing as the federal judiciary becomes more and more skewed to the far right, however. The newest wave of “conservative” justices seem to be more willing to ignore stare decisis and completely make/remake their own law. As an example, go look up Justice Gorsuch’s thoughts on the Chevron decision.

 
Trump has volunteered to take a drug test. Biden is the one refusing.

That’s because it’s ridiculous. Biden has not engaged Trump when Trump has thrown out stinky bait. Trump and his team know that Biden won’t do it, so they will make accusations and try to “win” that narrative. It’s how he does basically everything.

I know that you probably didn’t see this, because your news sources won’t show you. But go find the clip of little white pieces of something flying out of Trump’s nose. The dude is rumored to be an adderal fiend, and one of his producers during his apprentice days claims that he was always snorting adderal.

Also, his pupils are really messed up quite often. That’s either a medical condition, or drugs. There is no other possibility.

If you’ve seen his son recently, you’ll know that rampant/abusive drug use is common for the Trumps. It’s just what they do.
 
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That’s because it’s ridiculous. Biden has not engaged Trump when Trump has thrown out stinky bait. Trump and his team know that Biden won’t do it, so they will make accusations and try to “win” that narrative. It’s how he does basically everything.

I know that you probably didn’t see this, because your news sources won’t show you. But go find the clip of little white pieces of something flying out of Trump’s nose. The dude is rumored to be an adderal fiend, and one of his producers during his apprentice days claims that he was always snorting adderal.

Also, his pupils are really messed up quite often. That’s either a medical condition, or drugs. There is no other possibility.

If you’ve seen his son recently, you’ll know that rampant/abusive drug use is common for the Trumps. It’s just what they do.

Lol. Where's Hunter?
 
No, but there are plenty of undecideds who pragmatically wait to get through the debates.
It's a very small number this time around, in the 6-7% range if memory serves. Barring a meltdown of some sort, any movement based on the debates is going to be minuscule in relation to the total vote. But still, it may be crucial.

"Late breakers" in 2016 went disproportionately to Trump after Comey's "reopening" of the emails investigation. It would be hard to imagine anything similar this time around. If anything, it would be much more probable that a new revelation about Trump pushes most of the few remaining undecideds to Biden.
 
President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....
How you can support such a rotten man is beyond my comprehension. Well, unless you are also as rotten!😥
 
It's a very small number this time around, in the 6-7% range if memory serves. Barring a meltdown of some sort, any movement based on the debates is going to be minuscule in relation to the total vote. But still, it may be crucial.

"Late breakers" in 2016 went disproportionately to Trump after Comey's "reopening" of the emails investigation. It would be hard to imagine anything similar this time around. If anything, it would be much more probable that a new revelation about Trump pushes most of the few remaining undecideds to Biden.

I agree the undecided lot is much smaller this year than in any year, especially 2016.
 
As could Biden. What is your point?

They should be drug tested. We drug test all of our employees.
My point is we’ve never had candidates get drug tested before. Because Trump wants it, suddenly we should?
 
No, but there are plenty of undecideds who pragmatically wait to get through the debates.
There’s allegedly the smallest amount of undecideds in this election at this point of time . It makes sense. I think most people have had their mind made up long ago.
 
That’s because it’s ridiculous. Biden has not engaged Trump when Trump has thrown out stinky bait. Trump and his team know that Biden won’t do it, so they will make accusations and try to “win” that narrative. It’s how he does basically everything.

I know that you probably didn’t see this, because your news sources won’t show you. But go find the clip of little white pieces of something flying out of Trump’s nose. The dude is rumored to be an adderal fiend, and one of his producers during his apprentice days claims that he was always snorting adderal.

Also, his pupils are really messed up quite often. That’s either a medical condition, or drugs. There is no other possibility.

If you’ve seen his son recently, you’ll know that rampant/abusive drug use is common for the Trumps. It’s just what they do.
I can’t believe no one in the media asks him about this, especially since he has now brought it up. The producer of the Apprentice has been saying for years he snorts Adderall, there are times you see close ups where his pupils are so enlarged . The final straw was it flying out of his nose. But no one even asks him? And yes, Jr has been flying high every time I’ve seen him lately.
 
My point is we’ve never had candidates get drug tested before. Because Trump wants it, suddenly we should?
Also never had candidates unable to engage intellectually for greater than thirty minutes...but here we are!
 
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