The big difference between now and 2016 in the polling is Biden's margin has been pretty stable for months and he's much closer to 50% or above 50%+ in some key states in the polls.
Also there are many fewer undecideds and Biden is more liked than Hillary was.
Pollsters are also weighting for Education/2016 vote now.
It'd take a polling error AND Trump winning undecideds by a big margin (when the crosstabs show it's more likely those folks will break to Biden) for Trump to pull out a win.
Nailed it. The 50% Mark is huge. And Biden has been either very close to it or over it for many months now.
I’d add that Trump has one thing now that he didn’t have in 2016. That thing is a record. And with respect to COVID & healthcare, it’s atrocious. Those are the two top two issues for folks this time around, and it’s not even close.
The ONLY way that Biden loses now is if it’s stolen in the courts. And all votes are NOT counted.
Kind of similar to what happened in FL, w/ Bush v Gore. When an opinion by the Supreme Court states that the following analysis is ONLY for this case, and cannot become precedent, you know something is really screwed up. That’s just not how American law works.
Sadly, voter suppression & not counting all votes are Trump’s plans/only plays now. It’s been very transparent for the past several months. There have been lawsuits filed in 44(!) states at last count. All have been filed in efforts to limit the amount of votes counted, at least from the republican side.
What happened to federalism? Didn’t that used to be one of the main planks of conservative thought? If you’re a true “conservative” (as opposed to “republican”), then you should allow the states to run the elections within their borders as they see fit.
And before anyone whines about “voter fraud”, that argument isn’t working in the lower courts. That’s because there’s simply no evidence that it’s rampant and widespread.
A note- It’s best not to piss of the judge in your particular case. And one of the best ways to do it is to make frivolous and unfounded arguments. The courts aren’t sympathetic to the crap floating around in the right wing echo chamber. They still deal in facts. Decisions must be rooted in facts. Right now, there’s a lot of allegations/conspiracies being thrown out by the Republican side, but very little substance.
That may be changing as the federal judiciary becomes more and more skewed to the far right, however. The newest wave of “conservative” justices seem to be more willing to ignore stare decisis and completely make/remake their own law. As an example, go look up Justice Gorsuch’s thoughts on the Chevron decision.
Democrats won some important legal battles in the critical states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But the legal wars over the 2020 election are just getting going.
www.nytimes.com