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Trump, Republicans and Polling

Mas-sa-suta

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Oct 23, 2003
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President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....
 
President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....
I think there are more people in this country than we thought who know how inadequate he is at being POTUS overall, but they'll still vote for him because they think he's good for tax cuts and their stock portfolios.

These people are also not willing to admit they're voting for him. I think, in part, this group plays a role in the polls being skewed.
 
I think there are more people in this country than we thought who know how inadequate he is at being POTUS overall, but they'll still vote for him because they think he's good for tax cuts and their stock portfolios.

These people are also not willing to admit they're voting for him. I think, in part, this group plays a role in the polls being skewed.

Honest question. Who do you think would win Ohio if the election was tomorrow? The polls seem to show Biden with a 1 point lead but I don't buy that.
 
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President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....

Hopefully GreenIronBossierLagodaPromenade can weigh in and give a prediction like his epic "unskewing" in Romney v Obama. 😂
 
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Hopefully GreenIronBossierLagodaPromenade can weigh in and give a prediction like his epic "unskewing" in Romney v Obama. 😂
Is that like Person, Woman, Man, Camera (not up your butt), Camera (up your butt), TV, Wall, Bleach, Hydroxychloroquine?

if you lie about such things, you don't need a memory because you don't need to keep your story straight.
 
I think there are more people in this country than we thought who know how inadequate he is at being POTUS overall, but they'll still vote for him because they think he's good for tax cuts and their stock portfolios.

These people are also not willing to admit they're voting for him. I think, in part, this group plays a role in the polls being skewed.
Agree with this - but there’s also a percentage who got their businesses torched by Covid who blame trump, at least in part, and resultantly won’t vote for him
 
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I think there are more people in this country than we thought who know how inadequate he is at being POTUS overall, but they'll still vote for him because they think he's good for tax cuts and their stock portfolios.

These people are also not willing to admit they're voting for him. I think, in part, this group plays a role in the polls being skewed.

"Moodys has just come out with an analysis that says more jobs would be created by a Biden/ Dem Senate sweep than Trump being re-elected.I don't think they are generally regarded as "liberal" so I'm not sure they have a political ax to grind. They reason that Biden would infuse more funding into the economy in the first few months of his administration...


A Democratic sweep this election cycle would bring a faster recovery to the job market than a Republican one, according to a new analysis, adding millions of more jobs, shrinking the unemployment rate faster, and boosting the number of workers in the labor force higher.

Under a scenario where Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins the presidency and both the Senate and the House of Representatives are controlled by Democrats, 18.6 million jobs would be added by 2024, according to the analysis from Moody’s Analytics.
Under the opposite scenario where President Donald Trump wins a second term and Republicans control both chambers of Congress, 11.2 million jobs would be created.
“Biden would implement much more aggressive fiscal support to the economy early on in his administration,” Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist who co-authored the report told Yahoo Money. “That provides a lot of juice to the economy early on in his term.”

The unemployment rate would recover much quicker under Democratic control, too, falling to 5.2% in 2022 compared with just 7.1% in a Republican-sweep scenario. The participation rate would also increase faster under the Democrats, reaching 63.6% in 2024, versus 62.1% in the Republican scenario.

The unemployment rate would recover much faster under Democratic control, falling to 5.2% in 2022 compared with just 7.1% in a Republican-sweep scenario.

The results change if opposite parties control Congress and the executive branch. If the Senate is controlled by Republicans and the House by Democrats, a presidential win by Biden would add 13.6 million jobs to the economy by 2024. If Trump wins, the Senate is under Republican control and the House under Democratic, the economy would create 11.8 million jobs.

In all the iterations, a Biden win would mean more jobs."

https://www.yahoo.com/money/democra...-republican-one-analysis-finds-205257231.html
 
President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....
Nahhhh...it’ll be 400/40, at least
 
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Hater. 550/55 at a minimum.

Yeah, Biden will be lucky to manage Cali after all those "shy" Trump voters come out and show their allegiance to the Greatest Commander in Chief ever. And since the GOP will sweep all 35 Senate races as well, the Fuhrer and his allies will have a 40 vote, veto-proof majority in the Reichstag.

Sorry I mean Senate- I got swept away in the euphoria of the moment...
 
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Honest question. Who do you think would win Ohio if the election was tomorrow? The polls seem to show Biden with a 1 point lead but I don't buy that.
I honestly don’t know. If my anecdotal noticing of homemade signs for Trump in rural areas plays out similarly to 2016, we’ll have similar results.

That said, it does seem like there is more of a unified push for people to vote this year. In 2016 I knew people who either abstained from voting or wore voting third party as a badge of honor. I don’t seem to be seeing that as much now.

All that to say, I’m still not sure how Ohio will go.
 
The big difference between now and 2016 in the polling is Biden's margin has been pretty stable for months and he's much closer to 50% or above 50%+ in some key states in the polls.

Also there are many fewer undecideds and Biden is more liked than Hillary was.

Pollsters are also weighting for Education/2016 vote now.

It'd take a polling error AND Trump winning undecideds by a big margin (when the crosstabs show it's more likely those folks will break to Biden) for Trump to pull out a win.
 
President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....
Brilliant analysis. Thanks for sharing.
 
I honestly don’t know. If my anecdotal noticing of homemade signs for Trump in rural areas plays out similarly to 2016, we’ll have similar results.

That said, it does seem like there is more of a unified push for people to vote this year. In 2016 I knew people who either abstained from voting or wore voting third party as a badge of honor. I don’t seem to be seeing that as much now.

All that to say, I’m still not sure how Ohio will go.
Four years ago in late September, I drove up Route 62 in Ohio up from Columbus to do some camping at Mohican (about a 50 mile trek). I drove up that same road 8 days ago.
My observations (and yes, I was counting both times):
1) Four Years ago, I saw about 60 houses with Trump signs, and at best, maybe 2 Hillary signs. This time, it was 31 Trump houses and 8 Biden houses. So 30:1 in 2016, 4:1 in 2020.
2) If you counted actual signs (as in , multiple signs per house), it was something along the lines of 70 Trump signs to 10 Biden signs. One house had 8 to 10 signs.

Now, this is not to necessarily say that those houses that were not showing any signs are still not going to vote for Trump, because if I had to take a guess, the percentages in those rural areas are not going to decrease much. But at the very least, I can say that enthusiasm for Trump is down from 4 years ago, even with some trying to overcompensate.
 
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Most of you hate Trump. Which is fine if that's how you like to live. Tuesday, the country will get to see Joe off prompter, unprotected. I don't expect the poor ol' feller to do very well.

Let's see what the polls look like Wednesday morning.

 
Most of you hate Trump. Which is fine if that's how you like to live. Tuesday, the country will get to see Joe off prompter, unprotected. I don't expect the poor ol' feller to do very well.


You don't need to bathe in it...just a couple of squirts will do.

desperation.jpg
 
"Moodys has just come out with an analysis that says more jobs would be created by a Biden/ Dem Senate sweep than Trump being re-elected.I don't think they are generally regarded as "liberal" so I'm not sure they have a political ax to grind. They reason that Biden would infuse more funding into the economy in the first few months of his administration...


A Democratic sweep this election cycle would bring a faster recovery to the job market than a Republican one, according to a new analysis, adding millions of more jobs, shrinking the unemployment rate faster, and boosting the number of workers in the labor force higher.

Under a scenario where Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins the presidency and both the Senate and the House of Representatives are controlled by Democrats, 18.6 million jobs would be added by 2024, according to the analysis from Moody’s Analytics.
Under the opposite scenario where President Donald Trump wins a second term and Republicans control both chambers of Congress, 11.2 million jobs would be created.
“Biden would implement much more aggressive fiscal support to the economy early on in his administration,” Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist who co-authored the report told Yahoo Money. “That provides a lot of juice to the economy early on in his term.”

The unemployment rate would recover much quicker under Democratic control, too, falling to 5.2% in 2022 compared with just 7.1% in a Republican-sweep scenario. The participation rate would also increase faster under the Democrats, reaching 63.6% in 2024, versus 62.1% in the Republican scenario.

The unemployment rate would recover much faster under Democratic control, falling to 5.2% in 2022 compared with just 7.1% in a Republican-sweep scenario.

The results change if opposite parties control Congress and the executive branch. If the Senate is controlled by Republicans and the House by Democrats, a presidential win by Biden would add 13.6 million jobs to the economy by 2024. If Trump wins, the Senate is under Republican control and the House under Democratic, the economy would create 11.8 million jobs.

In all the iterations, a Biden win would mean more jobs."

https://www.yahoo.com/money/democra...-republican-one-analysis-finds-205257231.html


Fake news from the Deep State.
 
President Trump trails in so many polls, that it reminds me of 2016...

When he earned over 300 electoral votes and won 30 states....

I'm thinking he is so far behind, that he'll only earn 350 electoral votes and +- 35 states....

Support is softer now among conservative women. This shows in polls, and in the conversations I've had recently with women who were really negative on Hillary and were willing to give Trump a chance. While there husbands remain pro-Trump, the wives are now more critical.
 
Most of you hate Trump. Which is fine if that's how you like to live. Tuesday, the country will get to see Joe off prompter, unprotected. I don't expect the poor ol' feller to do very well.

Let's see what the polls look like Wednesday morning.

Sure, and that young whippersnapper at the other podium is going to bedazzle us all.

Wonder if he'll have another case of the sniffles.
 
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Honest question. Who do you think would win Ohio if the election was tomorrow? The polls seem to show Biden with a 1 point lead but I don't buy that.

Honest question, are you aware polls have a thing called a “margin of error”?
 
Four years ago in late September, I drove up Route 62 in Ohio up from Columbus to do some camping at Mohican (about a 50 mile trek). I drove up that same road 8 days ago.
My observations (and yes, I was counting both times):
1) Four Years ago, I saw about 60 houses with Trump signs, and at best, maybe 2 Hillary signs. This time, it was 31 Trump houses and 8 Biden houses. So 30:1 in 2016, 4:1 in 2020.
2) If you counted actual signs (as in , multiple signs per house), it was something along the lines of 70 Trump signs to 10 Biden signs. One house had 8 to 10 signs.

Now, this is not to necessarily say that those houses that were not showing any signs are still not going to vote for Trump, because if I had to take a guess, the percentages in those rural areas are not going to decrease much. But at the very least, I can say that enthusiasm for Trump is down from 4 years ago, even with some trying to overcompensate.

A couple of my neighbors had Trump signs out in 2016. They don't now. I asked both if they still supported Trump. Both essentially said yes more than ever but with BLM and all going on they don't want a target on their house.
 
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A couple of my neighbors had Trump signs out in 2016. They don't now. I asked both if they still supported Trump. Both essentially said yes more than ever but with BLM and all going on they don't want a target on their house.
I know it's the current narrative being pushed, but I'm pretty sure that the farmers in Artanna, OH are not particularly worried about backlash from roving packs of BLM marauders. I mean, maybe that's something those hippies in Mt. Vernon have to deal with, but not out there in God's country.....
 
Not sure how a poll falls outside the margin of error.

That would require a significant lead. Seems like damn every poll I’ve ever seen has at least a 3 point margin of error so anything from a 1 to 3 point lead is meaningless.
 
That would require a significant lead. Seems like damn every poll I’ve ever seen has at least a 3 point margin of error so anything from a 1 to 3 point lead is meaningless.

The definition of the margin of error is the confidence interval around the sample result within which the whole population result is likely to appear. In this case, the range around the polling estimate of Biden voters likely to include the true proportion of Biden supporters.

Bottom line, the result of a poll cannot fall outside its own margin of error.
 
The definition of the margin of error is the confidence interval around the sample result within which the whole population result is likely to appear. In this case, the range around the polling estimate of Biden voters likely to include the true proportion of Biden supporters.

Bottom line, the result of a poll cannot fall outside its own margin of error.

So, hypothetically, if a poll shows a particular candidate with a 12 point lead and the poll has a 3 point margin of error, that lead isn’t well outside the margin of error?
 
So, hypothetically, if a poll shows a particular candidate with a 12 point lead and the poll has a 3 point margin of error, that lead isn’t well outside the margin of error?

Right. That poll would suggest the lead could be as high as 15 points, or as low as 9 points.
 
Right. That poll would suggest the lead could be as high as 15 points, or as low as 9 points.

I know that. What are you arguing about? I said a 1 point lead with a 3 point margin of error is meaningless. Because it’s well within the margin of error. A significant lead, even after adjusting for a 3 point margin of error, could still be a significant lead. A significant lead provides a cushion against the margin of error, a small lead doesn’t. Hence the reason I don’t put much stock in small leads.
 
Most of you hate Trump. Which is fine if that's how you like to live. Tuesday, the country will get to see Joe off prompter, unprotected. I don't expect the poor ol' feller to do very well.

Let's see what the polls look like Wednesday morning.


First off, the debates don't have as much impact as you are hoping for.

1. Both candidates are well known.
2. Most voters have already decided as undecideds are historically low at around 6 to 7%.

Lastly what's more likely to happen? Does Biden confirm what Trump and Fox News has been building him up as (a bumbling old man with dementia) or that Trump will confirm what the left has accused him of...a nasty, bitter, lying petulant child?
 
First off, the debates don't have as much impact as you are hoping for.

1. Both candidates are well known.
2. Most voters have already decided as undecideds are historically low at around 6 to 7%.

Lastly what's more likely to happen? Does Biden confirm what Trump and Fox News has been building him up as (a bumbling old man with dementia) or that Trump will confirm what the left has accused him of...a nasty, bitter, lying petulant child?

I doubt a Presidential debate has ever been as important as the one tomorrow. At least in my lifetime. The bar is low for Joe but if has a you know thing moment, 200 million dead from COVID, 150 million dead from gun violence, etc moment he is done. If Trump was smart he would promise to immediately release his tax returns if Joe agrees to immediately take a piss test after the debate. Joe will of course say no as he'll be jacked up on Ritalin or Adderall and Trump could put the whole tax issue to rest.

This is your candidate Dems.

 
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I doubt a Presidential debate has ever been as important as the one tomorrow. At least in my lifetime. The bar is low for Joe but if has a you know thing moment, 200 million dead from COVID, 150 million dead from gun violence, etc moment he is done. If Trump was smart he would promise to immediately release his tax returns if Joe agrees to immediately take a piss test after the debate. Joe will of course say no as he'll be jacked up on Ritalin or Adderall and Trump could put the whole tax issue to rest.

This is your candidate Dems.


It will be the most watched and most entertaining, like wrestlemania one was in the 80's but most voters have already decided.

It won't impact the polls one bit whoever presumably 'wins' the debate (which even money is both sides will claim they won).

At the end of the day, good TV but won't change any opinions like most debates.
 
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I doubt a Presidential debate has ever been as important as the one tomorrow. At least in my lifetime. The bar is low for Joe but if has a you know thing moment, 200 million dead from COVID, 150 million dead from gun violence, etc moment he is done. If Trump was smart he would promise to immediately release his tax returns if Joe agrees to immediately take a piss test after the debate. Joe will of course say no as he'll be jacked up on Ritalin or Adderall and Trump could put the whole tax issue to rest.

This is your candidate Dems.

It cracks me up how obvious it is that Trump has been abusing drugs for years, just ask his Apprentice producer. Yet now out of the blue, he accuses Biden of it and the rubes pick it up. Trump always accuses others of exactly what he’s doing. Have you truly not figured that out yet?
 
Biden will do so well that he must be on drugs..

What idiot actually believes that crap? Oh wait...

You realize that before trump, presidents actually could form complete sentences without being drugged. My how trump has lowered the bar
 
It cracks me up how obvious it is that Trump has been abusing drugs for years, just ask his Apprentice producer. Yet now out of the blue, he accuses Biden of it and the rubes pick it up. Trump always accuses others of exactly what he’s doing. Have you truly not figured that out yet?

Trump has volunteered to take a drug test. Biden is the one refusing.
 
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