Trump Pulls Ads From Florida.

[DrHoops]

He's either very confident of victory, or he's waving the white flag. Or...he's out of money.

Trump Pulls Florida Ads

"President Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016," Bloomberg reports."Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan

politicalwire.com

 

[dbmhoosier]

FL and NC are in the bag. AZ is the one to watch.

 

[DrHoops]

FL and NC are in the bag. AZ is the one to watch.

Where are you getting that information?

 

[DrHoops]

FL and NC are in the bag. AZ is the one to watch.

Here are the projections for all three states. Meanwhile, Georgia and Texas are tied. Can you imagine that in your wildest dreams?

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[iuwclurker]

This is Trump’s poorman Hail Mary. His only chance of winning is to hope he gets Florida and spend his remaining money on the northern states where he’s losing by bigger margins.

 

[iuwclurker]

FL and NC are in the bag. AZ is the one to watch.

Barf bag?

 

[Circlejoe]

He's either very confident of victory, or he's waving the white flag. Or...he's out of money.

Trump Pulls Florida Ads

"President Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016," Bloomberg reports."Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan

politicalwire.com

Trump knows he's lost. Years from now we will find out where the billion dollars in campaign dollars ended up. I guarantee you that there are quite a few individuals who will walk away from the 2020 campaign a Hell of a lot wealthier.

 

[cosmickid]

FL and NC are in the bag. AZ is the one to watch.

Well I'm not ready to claim victory in FL for Biden yet, but there are some really positive signs. He does look really solid in NC,and Cuningham looks poised to unseat Tillis. I do think AZ is another state where Biden will benefit from his Senate candidate,and Trump is being dragged down by his...

But FL will definitely be close,although the Dems have a much more significant early lead this year than they had in 2016...



Wasserman has pointed out that Trump needs to have a 67/68% number in Sumpter Co (The Villages) or he'll have trouble winning in FL. Right now, in the early voting McDonald points out he's not yet where he needs to be...



But as Wasserman points out, the closeness of FL/TX and GA/NC is all just icing on the cake for Biden. He3 already has pretty solid leads in the states he needs to get to 270...

Btw,Trump visited freaking NEBRASKA today. I know he's going for the Congressional District EV's in the state where he sees the need to secure as many EVs as possible where he feels every EV will count. But while Trump is heading to NE in the week before the election, Biden is visiting GA, Iowa, and possibly Texas...

 

[ButHerEmails]

Well I'm not ready to claim victory in FL for Biden yet, but there are some really positive signs. He does look really solid in NC,and Cuningham looks poised to unseat Tillis. I do think AZ is another state where Biden will benefit from his Senate candidate,and Trump is being dragged down by his...

But FL will definitely be close,although the Dems have a much more significant early lead this year than they had in 2016...

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Wasserman has pointed out that Trump needs to have a 67/68% number in Sumpter Co (The Villages) or he'll have trouble winning in FL. Right now, in the early voting McDonald points out he's not yet where he needs to be...

View embedded media

But as Wasserman points out, the closeness of FL/TX and GA/NC is all just icing on the cake for Biden. He3 already has pretty solid leads in the states he needs to get to 270...

Btw,Trump visited freaking NEBRASKA today. I know he's going for the Congressional District EV's in the state where he sees the need to secure as many EVs as possible where he feels every EV will count. But while Trump is heading to NE in the week before the election, Biden is visiting GA, Iowa, and possibly Texas...

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Biden is visiting GA, Iowa and possibly TX? Holy shit, his basement must be YUUUUUUGE

 

[Stuffshot]

He's either very confident of victory, or he's waving the white flag. Or...he's out of money.

Trump Pulls Florida Ads

"President Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016," Bloomberg reports."Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan

politicalwire.com

 

[dbmhoosier]

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

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dmb, your incessant fishing expeditions for polls and stories declaring T.rump as the winner in the election have opened my eyes.
I am convinced that T.rump will pull out this election, and the Libs will be pwnd for another election cycle. T.rump has pulled a 4 year Greg Stillson, and enough people in the right areas in the right states will vote for him to land him in the Oval Office for one more term, at least.
If nothing else, we will see just how well and resilient our nation was built.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Well I'm not ready to claim victory in FL for Biden yet, but there are some really positive signs. He does look really solid in NC,and Cuningham looks poised to unseat Tillis. I do think AZ is another state where Biden will benefit from his Senate candidate,and Trump is being dragged down by his...

But FL will definitely be close,although the Dems have a much more significant early lead this year than they had in 2016...

View embedded media

Wasserman has pointed out that Trump needs to have a 67/68% number in Sumpter Co (The Villages) or he'll have trouble winning in FL. Right now, in the early voting McDonald points out he's not yet where he needs to be...

View embedded media

But as Wasserman points out, the closeness of FL/TX and GA/NC is all just icing on the cake for Biden. He3 already has pretty solid leads in the states he needs to get to 270...

Btw,Trump visited freaking NEBRASKA today. I know he's going for the Congressional District EV's in the state where he sees the need to secure as many EVs as possible where he feels every EV will count. But while Trump is heading to NE in the week before the election, Biden is visiting GA, Iowa, and possibly Texas...

View embedded media

How in the wide world of sports could Cunningham win after all that has been rumored...denied...revealed...denied...then proven and admitted?

 

[mcmurtry66]

dmb, your incessant fishing expeditions for polls and stories declaring T.rump as the winner in the election have opened my eyes.
I am convinced that T.rump will pull out this election, and the Libs will be pwnd for another election cycle. T.rump has pulled a 4 year Greg Stillson, and enough people in the right areas in the right states will vote for him to land him in the Oval Office for one more term, at least.
If nothing else, we will see just how well and resilient our nation was built.

sarcasm?

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

sarcasm?

Paranoidism.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Paranoidism.

lmao. if it makes you feel better i had to drive to one of my factories on monday. wayyyyyy rural. i saw far fewer signs than ever before for trump and actually saw biden signs where i wouldn't have thought i'd see same in a million years.

 

[dbmhoosier]

dmb, your incessant fishing expeditions for polls and stories declaring T.rump as the winner in the election have opened my eyes.
I am convinced that T.rump will pull out this election, and the Libs will be pwnd for another election cycle. T.rump has pulled a 4 year Greg Stillson, and enough people in the right areas in the right states will vote for him to land him in the Oval Office for one more term, at least.
If nothing else, we will see just how well and resilient our nation was built.

I am very confident Trump takes FL. No idea who wins the election but it will be very close. The Peoples Pundit has a podcast going right now and he's convinced it all comes down to PA. I trust him more than anyone. You should listen to his stuff. You might learn something.

 

[Sope Creek]

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Joe Scarborough? You mean Joe Scarborough of MSNBC? You're citing that Joe Scarborough?

 

[dbmhoosier]

Paranoidism.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I am very confident Trump takes FL. No idea who wins the election but it will be very close. The Peoples Pundit has a podcast going right now and he's convinced it all comes down to PA. I trust him more than anyone. You should listen to his stuff. You might learn something.

Don't need to...I've got you.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

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You had me at Rasmussen.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

lmao. if it makes you feel better i had to drive to one of my factories on monday. wayyyyyy rural. i saw far fewer signs than ever before for trump and actually saw biden signs where i wouldn't have thought i'd see same in a million years.

I'm serious, though. I am fully prepared for a T.rump victory next week. The good thing is the resident GOP supporters here will be gracious and focused on healing the rifts on this board.

 

[twenty02]

I am very confident Trump takes FL. No idea who wins the election but it will be very close. The Peoples Pundit has a podcast going right now and he's convinced it all comes down to PA. I trust him more than anyone. You should listen to his stuff. You might learn something.

Ah.... the People's Pundit. Totally bias free there!

 

[twenty02]

8 polls in a row out of Iowa, with none showing a Trump lead. Tied in 4, Biden leading in 4 (1-4 points)

 

[dbmhoosier]

8 polls in a row out of Iowa, with none showing a Trump lead. Tied in 4, Biden leading in 4 (1-4 points)

They were off by an average of 6.5 in IA in 2016. Doesn't mean they will be in 2020 but that would be a hell of a swing.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Cortez88]

You had me at Rasmussen.

Rasmussen was dead last during the 2018 midterms. Rasmussen provided overly optimistic numbers for Rs across the the board.

 

[outside shooter]

Florida is by no means settled yet. Lots of polls showing splits within margin of error of being even. Turnout is looking to be high, though. First time voters and frequent non-voters, by all studies, seem to lean blue.

the signs I see most often in my neighborhood:
generic Trump
generic Biden
"Republicans for Biden"
"Dump Trump", "Fire the Liar", or some other whimsical take on our buffoon in chief.

2, 3, and 4 add up to maybe a little less than #1, but #1's prevalence is driven by the existence of a cult following.

 

[twenty02]

Florida is by no means settled yet. Lots of polls showing splits within margin of error of being even. Turnout is looking to be high, though. First ime voters and frequent non-voters, by all studies, seem to lean blue.

Trump won FL by 1.2 points in 2016. Nobody has a clue how it will shake out. But Biden likely wins FL if the national shift ends up being D+4 or more.

 

[Cortez88]

Trump won FL by 1.2 points in 2016. Nobody has a clue how it will shake out.

Florida is always a wildcard. It will always be close and does not seem to be susceptible to the greater demographic changes we're seeing in Texas, NC and Georgia. I don’t know why that is exactly, but it seems to be pretty much the same as it was 20 years ago.

 

[twenty02]

They were off by an average of 6.5 in IA in 2016. Doesn't mean they will be in 2020 but that would be a hell of a swing.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Polling errors go both ways, not just one. The polling errors benefited Trump in the midwest, but actually benefited Clinton in the sun belt. Trump underperformed his polling averages in Texas, Nevada, Arizona in 2016.

That's why I like to look at national polling averages.... there are so many data points there that they have never been off by more than about 2 points or so, when aggregated. And it becomes statistically nearly impossible to win the EC if you lose the popular vote by more than 3-3.5 points. It's technically possible, but the correlations of voting trends across all the states shift enough to make it incredibly unlikely.

 

[Cortez88]

Cook is methodical and conservative in making these calls. Texas will turn blue. It’s a train coming down the tracks. Once it’s 38 EC votes go to the Ds, the GOP has no path to with the Presidency.

 

[UncleMark]

What To Make Of That New Wisconsin Poll That Has Biden Way Ahead

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisc…

fivethirtyeight.com

That said, ABC News/Washington Post is definitely an outlier; no other poll has shown Biden with that large a lead in Wisconsin since June. (Then, it was a Hodas & Associates poll sponsored by the conservative Restoration PAC that put Biden 17 points ahead.)

On the other hand, this poll doesn’t exactly exist in a vacuum. Biden has recently gotten a lot of very strong polls from some of the states that border Wisconsin. To wit:

• RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100).
• Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.
• On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.

 

[HillzHoozier]

Cook is methodical and conservative in making these calls. Texas will turn blue. It’s a train coming down the tracks. Once it’s 38 EC votes go to the Ds, the GOP has no path to with the Presidency.

View embedded media

2016 Electoral Scorecard | Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes state, federal and presidential elections, and American political trends.

cookpolitical.com

 

[cosmickid]

lmao. if it makes you feel better i had to drive to one of my factories on monday. wayyyyyy rural. i saw far fewer signs than ever before for trump and actually saw biden signs where i wouldn't have thought i'd see same in a million years.

I usually travel thru Monrovia via 39 on my way from Blmngton to Indy. A few weeks back I ran into a full on Trump truck rally after I exited 70 and was driving into town on my way to Martinstucky. It was kind of insane- it's not like Morgan Co is any sort of battleground...

But heading back up and on the return trip on Sat I was pleasantly surprised to see nearly as many Biden signs as Trump signs on the stretch of 39 from Monrovia HS to 37. Sometimes next-door neighbors with opposing yard signs on that winding stretch of road.
Was hoping to see one of these, I understand they're huge in PA...

 

[cosmickid]

2016 Electoral Scorecard | Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes state, federal and presidential elections, and American political trends.

cookpolitical.com

You do realize that Cortez is not saying that Texas will turn Blue this year right? He's just saying it's an inevitable demographic shift and once it happens a Blue Wall of NY,CA and TX will leave no Electoral College viability for the GOP. Of course that's when the GOP will become converts of the "abolish the EC" movement...

Meanwhile, we now know why Trump visited Omaha NE a week before election day yesterday. We don't know why he left his rally supporters to freeze in the parking lot for an hour or so after he had already left?

"Hundreds of President Donald Trump supporters were left in the freezing cold for hours after a rally at an airfield in Omaha, Nebraska, on Tuesday night, with some walking around three miles to waiting buses and others being taken away in ambulances.

Seven people were taken to area hospitals, suffering from a variety of conditions, and there were a total of 30 "contacted" for medical reasons, the Omaha police department said in a statement. The Omaha airport authority had a slightly different figure of the number taken to hospitals — it said six were "throughout the duration of the event" and added that it could not confirm that the people were taken to hospitals because of the cold.

The temperature in the area was in the mid-30s at the time."

Hundreds of Trump supporters stuck on freezing cold Omaha airfield after rally, 7 taken to hospitals

Overall, 30 people were "contacted" for medical reasons, the Omaha Police Department said in a statement.

news.yahoo.com

But we do know why he had to make the trip, although a lot of analysts see these (Congressional District based Electoral votes) as a Trump loss already...

 

[mcmurtry66]

I usually travel thru Monrovia via 39 on my way from Blmngton to Indy. A few weeks back I ran into a full on Trump truck rally after I exited 70 and was driving into town on my way to Martinstucky. It was kind of insane- it's not like Morgan Co is any sort of battleground...

But heading back up and on the return trip on Sat I was pleasantly surprised to see nearly as many Biden signs as Trump signs on the stretch of 39 from Monrovia HS to 37. Sometimes next-door neighbors with opposing yard signs on that winding stretch of road.
Was hoping to see one of these, I understand they're huge in PA...

View embedded media

lmao. i have two neighbors whose windows face each other and they keep switching out dueling signs. i think a lot of trump supporters from 2016 will just stay home. i was very surprised, again, at how few trump signs i saw on my drive through the unincorporated parts

 

[HillzHoozier]

You do realize that Cortez is not saying that Texas will turn Blue this year right? He's just saying it's an inevitable demographic shift and once it happens a Blue Wall of NY,CA and TX will leave no Electoral College viability for the GOP. Of course that's when the GOP will become converts of the "abolish the EC" movement...

Meanwhile, we now know why Trump visited Omaha NE a week before election day yesterday. We don't know why he left his rally supporters to freeze in the parking lot for an hour or so after he had already left? But we do know why he had to make the trip, although a lot of analysts see these (Congressional District based Electoral votes) as a Trump loss already...

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Nah.. He said Cook was conservative and hyped his methods to add weight to his post. I was pointing to 2016's Cook report to show how inaccurate his methods proved to be.

Frankly, I hope Trump is ousted by a wide margin and the GOP takes Congress. Otherwise, it will be a long time before there is any national unity to speak of.

 

[UncleMark]

lmao. i have two neighbors whose windows face each other and they keep switching out dueling signs. i think a lot of trump supporters from 2016 will just stay home. i was very surprised, again, at how few trump signs i saw on my drive through the unincorporated parts

We've heard all about the shy Trump voters in 2016. I think there will be a lot of shy Biden voters this time.

 

[Cortez88]

Latest Georgia poll.

 

[outside shooter]

The GOP is getting soundly trounced in the under-40 crowd.

If every year we add voters at the younger end of the range and if the people at the top end of the range don't change their views, then the demise of the GOP as it is now constituted (tied to Trumpism) is guaranteed.

In that scenario, the under 40 bloc beomes the under 44 bloc in 4 years, the under 48 block in 8 years, the under 52 bloc in 12 years. The % of the electorate swells, continuously.

Drop Trumpism now, move toward the will of the people, or become irrelevant.