As of yesterday afternoon, 8% of D1 basketball players had announced they were transferring. That's with 2 weeks left in the NCAA tournament and the coaching carousel just heating up.
It would be naive to think nobody would transfer from IU, even if we had had a great season and gone to the NCAA tournament. 40% of D1 players don't finish their sophomore year with the school that recruited them. Since nobody transferred last season, it would be a statistical anomaly if that happened two years in a row.
Throw in the fact that IU has had regular turnover all the way back to the Knight era, and it's likely someone will go.