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Thoughts on recruiting....

You do realize how PACE is calculated, right? By possessions.

And there is not an official NCAA stat for possessions - they are estimated.

The whole pace argument because a chicken or egg discussion - which comes first. I understand why people try to use the kenpom-style stats, but in comparing styles I believe it has too many holes to be effective.
But without pace being including even when estimated comparing a team like Virginia (who will have lower production) and UNC (which will have higher) is impossible because it will look like UNC is always the most productive team.

Plus, all pro analytics are pace neutral, no one uses per game stats for anything because they're basically useless when dealing with 351 teams playing varying speeds and players playing different minutes.

The only thing estimated is how many FTA are considered possessions. (.44) The rest are verified possessions.
 
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If I were the AD, I'd have fired Tom Crean after last season.

Crean bought himself more time with winning the B1G RS title and advancing to the Sweet 16. But that cant be his high point - it has to be closer to the median. If I'm AD, I'm not paying you 3.5 mil to win RS titles and get to Sweet 16's every couple of years.

I'm with you. Crean is still in the hole with me. I'll even be nice and give him rebuild years, although some take issue with year 3. In retrospect 2012 should have accomplished more. At the time I was just happy we were good again. I along with many fans overlooked the shortcomings. 2013 underachieved in the NCAA, but won the BIG. I'll be genourious again and call it a success. 2014 is my main sticking point. It's just unacceptable on every level. 2015 a little better, but not good enough. 2016 good year, not great, but soild.

For me that puts Crean on the hook for, 2015, 2014, and yes 2012. That's not even counting rebuild years. I've been bullish on next year, but Crean has a ways to go to win me back.
It's make or break time!
 
But without pace being including even when estimated comparing a team like Virginia (who will have lower production) and UNC (which will have higher) is impossible because it will look like UNC is always the most productive team.

But I'd never try to compare a team like Virginia to UNC or IU - because Virginia plays a completely different style.

The stat comparison (which I had explained to me by coaches) is relevant only when comparing how a team does against similar styles of play. There are a lot of caveats involved, and as I've said before there are no absolutes here. But the numbers don't lie. And as Frickenfrack had mentioned before, the Kenpom stats likely would should IU even worse. I've tried to use what I have to 1) paint Crean / IU in the best possible light and 2) do what I believe to be a more apples-to-apples evaluation.

Others might disagree, and that's fine. But if you look at those numbers I post before, it shows a tend - a trend not favorable to Crean or IU.
 
McGary, GRIII, Spike, 2 guard from Louisville that same yr that beat UM in title, multiple kids on Butlers NC 2 yr run, Kentucky has has multiple kids, Plumlee. Im sure more are out there but off the top of my head.
 
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But without pace being including even when estimated comparing a team like Virginia (who will have lower production) and UNC (which will have higher) is impossible because it will look like UNC is always the most productive team.

Plus, all pro analytics are pace neutral, no one uses per game stats for anything because they're basically useless when dealing with 351 teams playing varying speeds. The only thing estimated is how many FTA are considered possessions. (.44) The rest are verified possessions.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the NBA actually charts possessions as a stat. NCAA doesn't.
 
yay, you're back and degrading the job to fit the narrative again! I really do enjoy your IU world view -- there are NO coaches in the universe who would come to IU that could get past the sweet 16 and this is because...we haven't been elite in 20 years and....your opinion matters the most because of your many IU degrees.

Seriously, we've heard this one before. Move along. But please post a pic of your S16 replica ring before you do. Thanks in advance ;)

I didn't get a S16 replica ring for 2016. I already have too many replica rings from these years:

2000: Final 64
1999: Final 32
1998: Final 32
1997: Final 64
1996: Final 64
1995: Final 64
 
I didn't get a S16 replica ring for 2016. I already have too many replica rings from these years:

2000: Final 64
1999: Final 32
1998: Final 32
1997: Final 64
1996: Final 64
1995: Final 64
By using these results, you've shown how weak your defense of Crean is. Talk about lowered expectations.
 
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You crap on IU more than any of the "haters" you despise so much...you just cherry pick the era/coach.

Yeah that's not true. I'm the biggest IU fan I know. I just got my basketball ticket renewal email today in fact. I'm gonna make sure they keep Crean before I send in my money though.

Here's big news for you: Tom Crean, the reigning Big 10 coach of the year, is going to be at Indiana for as long as he wants. You should probably either jump on board or find a new allegiance.

In the meantime, hop on the IU football bandwagon and I will see you at the Rose Bowl!!!
 
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Yeah that's not true. I'm the biggest IU fan I know. I just got my basketball ticket renewal email today in fact. I'm gonna make sure they keep Crean before I send in my money though.

Here's big news for you: Tom Crean, the reigning Big 10 coach of the year, is going to be at Indiana for as long as he wants. You should probably either jump on board or find a new allegiance.

In the meantime, hop on the IU football bandwagon and I will see you at the Rose Bowl!!!
No it was true
 
No it was true

Ok. If having season tickets and liking our head coach (who is the reigning Big 10 coach of the year by the way) makes me a hater, then I am guilty as charged.

You need to direct your energy toward IU football and give your Tom Crean and IU hatred a rest until November. Jump on the K-Dubs bandwagon for the ride to Pasadena while you have the chance...there is plenty of room!!!
 
Yeah that's not true. I'm the biggest IU fan I know. I just got my basketball ticket renewal email today in fact. I'm gonna make sure they keep Crean before I send in my money though.

Here's big news for you: Tom Crean, the reigning Big 10 coach of the year, is going to be at Indiana for as long as he wants. You should probably either jump on board or find a new allegiance.

In the meantime, hop on the IU football bandwagon and I will see you at the Rose Bowl!!!
You better believe he is especially after the big fat extension fred will give hinlm after the season. It would be impossible for him not to win 20 games this year will all the talent he has. Imo 20 wins is all it takes for glass to extend this point . If he gets another sweer sixteen then fred is really happy.
 
Ok. If having season tickets and liking our head coach (who is the reigning Big 10 coach of the year by the way) makes me a hater, then I am guilty as charged.

You need to direct your energy toward IU football and give your Tom Crean and IU hatred a rest until November. Jump on the K-Dubs bandwagon for the ride to Pasadena while you have the chance...there is plenty of room!!!
You didn't read what I wrote, which is something I'm starting to notice that you do habitually

I said you crap on IU more than the so called hater....I never called you a hater. I don't think anyone here is a hater, we are all IU fans. Some expect more than what we've gotten others, like you, are content.

No one hates IU and I doubt anyone knows TC well enough to hate him either. That's just lazy snark used by posters who can't articulate a valid argument
 
You didn't read what I wrote, which is something I'm starting to notice that you do habitually

I said you crap on IU more than the so called hater....I never called you a hater. I don't think anyone here is a hater, we are all IU fans. Some expect more than what we've gotten others, like you, are content.

No one hates IU and I doubt anyone knows TC well enough to hate him either. That's just lazy snark used by posters who can't articulate a valid argument

Fair enough. I bid you a good summer my friend and fellow Hoosier fan. Best to you and yours.
 
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You better believe he is especially after the big fat extension fred will give hinlm after the season. It would be impossible for him not to win 20 games this year will all the talent he has. Imo 20 wins is all it takes for glass to extend this point . If he gets another sweer sixteen then fred is really happy.

Sweet. I hope you are correct. He is, after all, the only reigning Big 10 coach of the year.
 
But I'd never try to compare a team like Virginia to UNC or IU - because Virginia plays a completely different style.

The stat comparison (which I had explained to me by coaches) is relevant only when comparing how a team does against similar styles of play. There are a lot of caveats involved, and as I've said before there are no absolutes here. But the numbers don't lie. And as Frickenfrack had mentioned before, the Kenpom stats likely would should IU even worse. I've tried to use what I have to 1) paint Crean / IU in the best possible light and 2) do what I believe to be a more apples-to-apples evaluation.

Others might disagree, and that's fine. But if you look at those numbers I post before, it shows a tend - a trend not favorable to Crean or IU.
You should read Oliver's book. Just sayin'
 
But without pace being including even when estimated comparing a team like Virginia (who will have lower production) and UNC (which will have higher) is impossible because it will look like UNC is always the most productive team.

Plus, all pro analytics are pace neutral, no one uses per game stats for anything because they're basically useless when dealing with 351 teams playing varying speeds. The only thing estimated is how many FTA are considered possessions. (.44) The rest are verified possessions.
So, which stats do you think are the most useful/reliable to make these evaluations?
 
So, which stats do you think are the most useful/reliable to make these evaluations?
"The Four Factors".... google it.

EFG%
TO %
Off Reb %
FT Rate

and their defensive counterparts.

Brad Stevens claims he can evaluate a majority of what another team wants to do and how they play by looking at those eight stats only. Of course he goes into much further depth than simply using those stats but they are the first stats viewed on scouting reports.
 
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the NBA actually charts possessions as a stat. NCAA doesn't.

Yea, you're correct. They track all kinds of stuff the NCAA doesn't. At least the teams do.

In a majority the NBA is now driven by analytics.
 
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Yea, you're correct. They track all kinds of stuff the NCAA doesn't at least the teams do.

In a majority the NBA is now driven by analytics.
If the pace-neutral stats were figured by actual possessions I might favor them more for the college game.

But they're not. And, as I said, I was trying to present Crean in the best possible light - and he still falls short.
 
"The Four Factors".... google it.

EFG%
TO %
Off Reb %
FT Rate

and their defensive counterparts.

Brad Stevens claims he can evaluate a majority of what another team wants to do and how they play by looking at those eight stats only. Of course he goes into much further depth than simply using those stats but they are the first stats viewed on scouting reports.
What do other pro coaches look at?
 
If the pace-neutral stats were figured by actual possessions I might favor them more for the college game.

But they're not. And, as I said, I was trying to present Crean in the best possible light - and he still falls short.
Dude, read Dean Oliver's book, you like stats, and I know you won't believe me when I tell you you're wrong - so read the book that basically started analytics in basketball. The pace estimate isn't as skewed as you believe.

Like I said earlier the only thing estimated in pace is possessions ending in FT (which is FTA * 0.44) Over a season the degree of inaccuracy is very little. Sure, in a single game, it may be skewed but over a whole season, it stabilizes.

If Kenpom (with estimated FT possessions) is good enough for Stevens, who is an analytic guru ... well.

Yea, I get ya, as Crean falls even shorter on pace neutral stats considering his above average pace and weak schedules. Adding pace doesn't help him, and adding SOS doesn't either. They in fact weaken every offensive stat a bit.
 
Dude, read Dean Oliver's book, you like stats, and I know you won't believe me when I tell you you're wrong - so read the book that basically started analytics in basketball. The pace estimate isn't as skewed as you believe.

Like I said earlier the only thing estimated in pace is possessions ending in FT (which is FTA * 0.44) Over a season the degree of inaccuracy is very little. Sure, in a single game, it may be skewed but over a whole season, it stabilizes.

If Kenpom (with estimated FT possessions) is good enough for Stevens, who is an analytic guru ... well.

Yea, I get ya, as Crean falls even shorter on pace neutral stats considering his above average pace and weak schedules. Adding pace doesn't help him, and adding SOS doesn't either. They in fact weaken every offensive stat a bit.
We ought to sit around over beers and talk - I eat this stuff up.
 
Or maybe you readily accept and confuse mediocrity for capability. I guess we'll never know.

Mediocrity and capability are not exclusive of one another. A coach who only wins half his games is still, by the primary definition of capable, capable of winning. He's also still a mediocre coach. The fact that Crean has already achieved a particular thing, once by your metric, at least twice by mine, shows his capability.

In the exact same sentence you cherry picked, I indicated Crean doesn't coach championship caliber defense consistently, or even half the time. But, in case you need more clarification, I'll give it to you: I meant the first definition of capable (in Tas' link), not the second. And, before you fall back on the "accepting mediocrity" one-liner, which by the way, is the dumbest mutation of all the stupid "true fan" arguments that have been going on here since 2000, "capable of coaching championship caliber defense" isn't good enough, in my book, to keep the IU job. That's true of dozens of coaches in college basketball, if not hundreds.

Only doing it once in 5 years isn't good enough either. If he manages it this year, it will be once every three years, on average, which MIGHT be tolerable, long run if they keep up the offensive production. So, big year coming up. If Coach can't teach this group to play good defense, with all their talent, well, I'd seriously consider moving on, depending on some other circumstances. Spare me the "accepting mediocrity" one-liner.
 
Mediocrity and capability are not exclusive of one another. A coach who only wins half his games is still, by the primary definition of capable, capable of winning. He's also still a mediocre coach. The fact that Crean has already achieved a particular thing, once by your metric, at least twice by mine, shows his capability.

In the exact same sentence you cherry picked, I indicated Crean doesn't coach championship caliber defense consistently, or even half the time. But, in case you need more clarification, I'll give it to you: I meant the first definition of capable (in Tas' link), not the second. And, before you fall back on the "accepting mediocrity" one-liner, which by the way, is the dumbest mutation of all the stupid "true fan" arguments that have been going on here since 2000, "capable of coaching championship caliber defense" isn't good enough, in my book, to keep the IU job. That's true of dozens of coaches in college basketball, if not hundreds.

Only doing it once in 5 years isn't good enough either. If he manages it this year, it will be once every three years, on average, which MIGHT be tolerable, long run if they keep up the offensive production. So, big year coming up. If Coach can't teach this group to play good defense, with all their talent, well, I'd seriously consider moving on, depending on some other circumstances. Spare me the "accepting mediocrity" one-liner.
TLDR:
 
Just curious as to what people think about our recruiting the last few classes. Has Crean changed his tactics and started going after lower ranked players he thinks he can develop or is he just struggling to land the top talent?

The last two classes have 8 players between the classes...
Only two top 50 recruits
Bryant at #27
Davis at #35
One other top 100 in Jones at #69

The rest:
3* OG
3* Morgan
3* Green
3* McSwain
2* Gelon

I know rankings are not the end before someone uses that but it defiantly hasn't hurt the Duke, Kansas, UNC's, UK's of the world. So in saying that I think the 17 class is the class Crean needs to restock with some elite guys.
Who would you pick if you could exchange for anyone on the top fifty list for OG and/or Morgan?
 
It's beaten to death because it's been answered many times and the replies are always the same
Big name coaches wouldn't come here
Up and coming coaches all suck compared to TC, watch

First call is of course to Stevens after he says no
Marshall
Mack
TBennett
Kruger

Pick any of them and instant upgrade
How many of these coaches said no when the program smelled and looked like an overflowing septic tank? What coach or player wanted to come within a 100 miles of IU after the firing of coach Knight, the ill treatment of coach Davis and the dishonest behavior and embarrassment caused by Sampson. I thank coach for doing it the right way! I pull for him to have consistency in recruiting talent and getting the team to give effort on both ends of the floor. It was very enjoyable watching the team last year even though it fell short of hanging number 6. I too would like to see some of the home state talent contribute to that goal but the decision is ultimately theirs to make. I'm thankful coach Crean has avoided short cuts that will undoubtedly embarrass the university and fan base.
 
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How many of these coaches said no when the program smelled and looked like an overflowing septic tank? What coach or player wanted to come within a 100 miles of IU after the firing of coach Knight, the ill treatment of coach Davis and the dishonest behavior and embarrassment caused by Sampson. I thank coach for doing it the right way! I pull for him to have consistency in recruiting talent and getting the team to give effort on both ends of the floor. It was very enjoyable watching the team last year even though it fell short of hanging number 6. I too would like to see some of the home state talent contribute to that goal but the decision is ultimately theirs to make. I'm thankful coach Crean has avoided short cuts that will undoubtedly embarrass the university and fan base.
Tldr
 
How many of these coaches said no when the program smelled and looked like an overflowing septic tank? What coach or player wanted to come within a 100 miles of IU after the firing of coach Knight, the ill treatment of coach Davis and the dishonest behavior and embarrassment caused by Sampson. I thank coach for doing it the right way! I pull for him to have consistency in recruiting talent and getting the team to give effort on both ends of the floor. It was very enjoyable watching the team last year even though it fell short of hanging number 6. I too would like to see some of the home state talent contribute to that goal but the decision is ultimately theirs to make. I'm thankful coach Crean has avoided short cuts that will undoubtedly embarrass the university and fan base.
For the 15 class....Swanigan, Brandon Ingram, Ben Simmons, Ivan Rabb, etc.... tons of better talent in that class. I would trade OG and Morgan for WIlkes and Jaren JAckson
 
How many of these coaches said no when the program smelled and looked like an overflowing septic tank? What coach or player wanted to come within a 100 miles of IU after the firing of coach Knight, the ill treatment of coach Davis and the dishonest behavior and embarrassment caused by Sampson. I thank coach for doing it the right way! I pull for him to have consistency in recruiting talent and getting the team to give effort on both ends of the floor. It was very enjoyable watching the team last year even though it fell short of hanging number 6. I too would like to see some of the home state talent contribute to that goal but the decision is ultimately theirs to make. I'm thankful coach Crean has avoided short cuts that will undoubtedly embarrass the university and fan base.

So we limit our future potential because of the state of the program 8 years ago? Sure, from where we were things look great. But put where we are up against other programs allocating similar resources and it looks like we have a ways to go. And I believe coach was still being paid during some tough years that were all his even if you don't think year three should count. I agree he's done it mostly the right way despite some discipline issues and high-turnover but shouldn't that be a given? We don't live in a world where effort gets points. Execution does. Crean can earn the praise you throw at him by doing the basics and winning the kind of games his similarly positioned peers win. Just sayin.
 
How many of these coaches said no when the program smelled and looked like an overflowing septic tank? What coach or player wanted to come within a 100 miles of IU after the firing of coach Knight, the ill treatment of coach Davis and the dishonest behavior and embarrassment caused by Sampson. I thank coach for doing it the right way! I pull for him to have consistency in recruiting talent and getting the team to give effort on both ends of the floor. It was very enjoyable watching the team last year even though it fell short of hanging number 6. I too would like to see some of the home state talent contribute to that goal but the decision is ultimately theirs to make. I'm thankful coach Crean has avoided short cuts that will undoubtedly embarrass the university and fan base.
Which one of those coaches turned IU down? Bennett - which is understandable after the way Kathi was let go by the idiots in charge at the time. Don't believe any of the other were offered the job in '08, although I remember rumors of Kruger possibly becoming the coach.

"Embarrass the university"? Really? Like 11 player arrests/incidents in an 18 month span weren't embarrassing enough? A continuation of which spurred the University President to "read the riot act" to his athletic dept?

I'm sure that Marshall or Mack would thoroughly embarrass this university more than Crean . . .
 
For the 15 class....Swanigan, Brandon Ingram, Ben Simmons, Ivan Rabb, etc.... tons of better talent in that class. I would trade OG and Morgan for WIlkes and Jaren JAckson
Ingram was offensively efficient for Duke even though they lack their normal offensive talent especially later in they year. The big chunk from pasture land could provide interior depth and rebounding. After watching LSU fall apart I'm glad we didn't have Simmons for team chemistry reasons alone. Rabb proved to be a baller too and may have contributed to interior help especially against UNC. I would still take Morgan's all around game and OG's effort on defense and desire to attack the rim defensively and offensively. I would like to see Wilkes and Jackson in candy stripes. The players you listed are all very good players too.
 
Which one of those coaches turned IU down? Bennett - which is understandable after the way Kathi was let go by the idiots in charge at the time. Don't believe any of the other were offered the job in '08, although I remember rumors of Kruger possibly becoming the coach.

"Embarrass the university"? Really? Like 11 player arrests/incidents in an 18 month span weren't embarrassing enough? A continuation of which spurred the University President to "read the riot act" to his athletic dept?

I'm sure that Marshall or Mack would thoroughly embarrass this university more than Crean . . .
You cannot say what a person will do, but you can respond to their behavior. I was referring to the coaches decisions, or behavior that he knew of and tolerated.
 
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