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The Trump Stock Market Myth

Isn’t it more appropriate to dispense credit to a Republican majority in Congress? Tax reform is Ryan’s pet and would’ve happened if anybody with a (R) next to their name in the White House. You can probably make a decent hypothesis that capital markets would be even stronger if a more stable man occupied the Oval Office.
Maybe, but make no mistake that tax reform, deregulation, repatriation of overseas funds, and infrastructure spending is having an impact on the market. Give Trump credit, don't give him credit, in my mind it doesn't matter. You can despise a person, and like some of his ideas. I am squarely in that position.
 
Vanguard has a couple of new global funds as of last November, a Global Wellington fund (1/3 income focused and 2/3 stocks) and a Global Wellesley Income Fund, which is 2/3 focused on income and 1/3 focused on stocks . . . supposed to be a couple of good funds for folks close to or already in retirement. I might "diversify" into global investments via these . . . since they're both promising in their own right . . . .

Doug, in exchange for the plug I want commissions on all new investments in these funds from this date forward . . . .
If only it was within my power....
 
As I said in an earlier thread, if you don't give Trump some credit, albeit a small part, for the market rise due to the tax changes, then you are either ignorant to the fact, or just dishonest. The recents tax law changes have lifted the markets, and there is absolutely no disputing that among people who understand the market.

See Rangers post. That was Congress, not Trump. You sir, are ignorant of the fact that the US stock market has underpeformed it's global peers. If your market goes up 100%, but everyone else goes up 200% you are losing $ on a ppp basis. ;)
 
I don't see any overheating unless and until wages catch fire a bit too . . . what's to overheat, I mean, other than the equities markets . . . .
Anytime major economies reach or exceed full employment, there is a risk of overheating. The US, Germany, and U.K. are arguably at that point. You mix that with over accommodative financial conditions, and that is bound to be problems down the road.
As for bonds.....IDK...stay away. I am using several different financial instruments and structured products to provide income, and have exposure to equity markets, while preserving principle. Bonds scare me.
 
See Rangers post. That was Congress, not Trump. You sir, are ignorant of the fact that the US stock market has underpeformed it's global peers. If your market goes up 100%, but everyone else goes up 200% you are losing $ on a ppp basis. ;)
No, I am not ignorant to that fact. I follow it every day. Just because some markets have outperformed over the last 12 months...is....normal. Without looking it up, my guess is that the US has led in returns very few times over the last 40 years or so. I am not sure what point you are trying to make, but your bias against Trump is clouding you rational. I just told Sope that I have increased my personal holdings to about 50% international over the last couple of years. European valuations are still considerably less that the US.
If you want to go invest in Turkey, or Venezuela, or some other emerging market, where results can be quite volatile, go knock yourself out. The US market had a great year....period. What other markets did are completely irrelevant to the conversation.
 
Mostly environmental: Dakota and Keystone pipelines, dumping toxic waste into local waters, drilling, hunting hibernating bears, controlling emissions from factories, fuel efficiency in cars.
Approving the pipelines are economically and environmentally good decisions. The fuel efficiency standards were far too onerous.
 
No, I am not ignorant to that fact. I follow it every day. Just because some markets have outperformed over the last 12 months...is....normal. Without looking it up, my guess is that the US has led in returns very few times over the last 40 years or so. I am not sure what point you are trying to make, but your bias against Trump is clouding you rational. I just told Sope that I have increased my personal holdings to about 50% international over the last couple of years. European valuations are still considerably less that the US.
If you want to go invest in Turkey, or Venezuela, or some other emerging market, where results can be quite volatile, go knock yourself out. The US market had a great year....period. What other markets did are completely irrelevant to the conversation.

Are you also aware of the fact that the dollar declined by 10%?
 
Anytime major economies reach or exceed full employment, there is a risk of overheating. The US, Germany, and U.K. are arguably at that point. You mix that with over accommodative financial conditions, and that is bound to be problems down the road.
As for bonds.....IDK...stay away. I am using several different financial instruments and structured products to provide income, and have exposure to equity markets, while preserving principle. Bonds scare me.

Principal . . . but you knew that.

Well, if the continued flow of money goes virtually exclusively to the ownership and and management, we won't have to worry about your overheating concerns, as there won't be enough money flowing to people who spend it in sufficient volume to cause any overheating. If wages don't go up, we're just as likely to see an overheating of stock markets (since the money will be in the hands of those who save/invest in higher proportions than wage-earners) and the possibility of another deflationary trend . . . .

Wages have to rise and make up the loss of compensation value (because of unrewarded increases in productivity) before I'll be too concerned about overheating. We're a long way from 1973.
 
Are you also aware of the fact that the dollar declined by 10%?
So what. The dollar has gone up and down for ever. Our currency is as stable as it gets. Our central bank is raising rates. Japan and Europe are not. What would you expect from the dollar?
 
The fuel efficiency standards were far too onerous.

On what?

Engineering improvements have made cars with relatively small engines and low gasoline usage terrifically efficient to a point where they have good acceleration and outstanding gasoline mpg. Heck, my run-of-the-mill sedan gets from 0 to 60 in 7.5 seconds and gets 30 mpg in the city and 40 mpg on the highway.

What is remotely onerous about those regs?
 
Principal . . . but you knew that.

Well, if the continued flow of money goes virtually exclusively to the ownership and and management, we won't have to worry about your overheating concerns, as there won't be enough money flowing to people who spend it in sufficient volume to cause any overheating. If wages don't go up, we're just as likely to see an overheating of stock markets (since the money will be in the hands of those who save/invest in higher proportions than wage-earners) and the possibility of another deflationary trend . . . .

Wages have to rise and make up the loss of compensation value (because of unrewarded increases in productivity) before I'll be too concerned about overheating. We're a long way from 1973.
Haha...yea on principle.
I am just reiterating what I read every day from Goldman, CSFB, etc
You are starting to see minimum wage comments from major employers (McDonalds, Wal-Mart). That will move up the wage pole. At full employment, wages WILL increase at some point. The fed will increase based off of that, and that is one of the major concerns....the Fed moving too fast.

I am not saying this will happen soon. The chance of a recession over the next couple of years is very low. After that, be careful....and remember the market is always 12-18 months ahead of the economy.
 
On what?

Engineering improvements have made cars with relatively small engines and low gasoline usage terrifically efficient to a point where they have good acceleration and outstanding gasoline mpg. Heck, my run-of-the-mill sedan gets from 0 to 60 in 7.5 seconds and gets 30 mpg in the city and 40 mpg on the highway.

What is remotely onerous about those regs?
It’s onerous on us due to higher prices and/or lower performance. Manufacturers will continue to find ways to get us what we want without the extremely high standards impose upon them by the executive branch. My coupe, by the way, gets to 60 in about 4 seconds and still gets 33 on the highway. It does only get about 24 in the city. I’m good with that for now.
 
Approving the pipelines are economically and environmentally good decisions. The fuel efficiency standards were far too onerous.
I'm not sure the people that live there agree, particularly those that live close to the leak and those whose sacred ground it runs through.
 
I'm not sure the people that live there agree, particularly those that live close to the leak and those whose sacred ground it runs through.
First, it is absolutely better for the environment overall than shipping oil by truck or rail, and second, the pipeline does not go through “sacred ground.”
 
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