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The Trump Stock Market Myth

toastedbread

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Oct 25, 2006
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Ignoring the fact that many Americans do not see a benefit from stock market gains, US stock exchanges have performed poorly compared to their global peers! Many international markets are at record highs! And the kicker, is that the US dollar has dropped 10%! If you dig more than knee deep, the stock market's performance is actually disappointing.
 
Ignoring the fact that many Americans do not see a benefit from stock market gains, US stock exchanges have performed poorly compared to their global peers! Many international markets are at record highs! And the kicker, is that the US dollar has dropped 10%! If you dig more than knee deep, the stock market's performance is actually disappointing.
What time period are you referring to? I am quite sure that most people that are invested in the markets are not disappointed with their 2017 results. How were those international markets, say, 3, 4, 5 years ago?
 
International markets have been lagging the US market for several years.....Europe in particular was much slower to respond to the global recession with aggressive monetary policy. As such, their recovery has been behind ours. They are just doing some "catching up" at this point.,
 
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What time period are you referring to? I am quite sure that most people that are invested in the markets are not disappointed with their 2017 results. How were those international markets, say, 3, 4, 5 years ago?
International markets have been lagging the US market for several years.....Europe in particular was much slower to respond to the global recession with aggressive monetary policy. As such, their recovery has been behind ours. They are just doing some "catching up" at this point.,

I'm referring to post-Trump election. He wants credit for that performance and that performance is unremarkable. Obama's market outperformed the globe and Trump is underperforming. (If we believe the prez impacts the markets to the extent trump likes to claim, which I don't)
 
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International markets have been lagging the US market for several years.....Europe in particular was much slower to respond to the global recession with aggressive monetary policy. As such, their recovery has been behind ours. They are just doing some "catching up" at this point.,

Sooo, I take it your advice is that it's time to rotate out of US stock funds and into international stock funds . . . .
 
I'm referring to post-Trump election. He wants credit for that performance and that performance is unremarkable. Obama's market outperformed the globe and Trump is underperforming. (If we believe the prez impacts the markets to the extent trump likes to claim, which I don't)
We have a much more stable market, than say Venezuela, which was up some 3000% last year. Of course, their currency is worthless, so there is that.
 
Ignoring the fact that many Americans do not see a benefit from stock market gains, US stock exchanges have performed poorly compared to their global peers! Many international markets are at record highs! And the kicker, is that the US dollar has dropped 10%! If you dig more than knee deep, the stock market's performance is actually disappointing.
I have international and domestic mutual funds and my domestics have outperformed my Internationals by a significant margin over the last 9 years, including 2017. Link some charts that support your assertion. I haven’t seen them. Additionally, it’s not the Trump stock market, it’s the US stock market.
 
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I have international and domestic mutual funds and my domestics have outperformed my Internationals by a significant margin over the last 9 years, including 2017. Link some charts that support your assertion. I haven’t seen them. Additionally, it’s not the Trump stock market, it’s the US stock market.

I'm only referring to Trump's time in office as he demands credit for that as compared to Obama. This is a time article from exactly 1 year in office as of Nov.

"3. If you look at the market globally, the Trump rally has actually been tepid.

While the S&P 500’s gain was terrific by historic standards, it was only middling compared with the performance of global equities over the past 12 months.

In fact, the S&P’s 2l% gain pales in comparison to the 56% gain for Austrian stocks; the 40% gain for Italian shares; the 29.8% climb for French equities; the 29.7% gain for German stocks; and the 28.4% rise in Swedish shares.

U.S. stock performance looks even worse when pitted against emerging market stocks, or shares of companies based in fast-growing but less-developed economies. For example, over the past year Polish shares are up 52.7%; Chinese stocks are up 43.5%; South Korean equities are up 41%; Hungarian shares are up 32.1%; and Peruvian equities are up 29.9%."

http://time.com/money/5014644/trump-stocks-election-anniversary/

That doesn't even include the dollar weakness I've highlighted.
 
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We have a much more stable market, than say Venezuela, which was up some 3000% last year. Of course, their currency is worthless, so there is that.
Do you know any good Venezuelan stock I should invest in with the proceeds from selling NVDA?
 
Do you know any good Venezuelan stock I should invest in with the proceeds from selling NVDA?
If you have had NVDA for the last couple of years, good for you. It has been unbelievable. As for Venezuelan stocks, sorry, can't think of any of the top of my head.
 
If you have had NVDA for the last couple of years, good for you. It has been unbelievable. As for Venezuelan stocks, sorry, can't think of any of the top of my head.
I have accumulated NVDA stocks throughout this decade. No, I am not selling them right now but paying close attention to it. No, I am not interested in Venezuelan stocks now. I am not good at the craps game. It was meant to be a joke. Wish you told us a few years back!:)
 
If you have had NVDA for the last couple of years, good for you. It has been unbelievable. As for Venezuelan stocks, sorry, can't think of any of the top of my head.
My big winner over last 30 months is DowDuPont. Bought in at $44 a share. Initially bought a lot of it but had to liquidate some to pay for some renovations around the house. It’s trading last Friday at $75.41 and it pays a sweet divvy.
 
Ignoring the fact that many Americans do not see a benefit from stock market gains, US stock exchanges have performed poorly compared to their global peers! Many international markets are at record highs! And the kicker, is that the US dollar has dropped 10%! If you dig more than knee deep, the stock market's performance is actually disappointing.
Ahh but we were sold the fake bill of goods on just how bad the market would tank if DT was elected. Would you have given him credit if it had tanked? What did he do different than what the "experts" claimed he would do? Sure glad he saved us from their doom and gloom.
 
Ahh but we were sold the fake bill of goods on just how bad the market would tank if DT was elected. Would you have given him credit if it had tanked? What did he do different than what the "experts" claimed he would do? Sure glad he saved us from their doom and gloom.

I don't think the prez deserves any credit for the stock market. Specifically, when you are undperforming others.
 
I don't think the prez deserves any credit for the stock market. Specifically, when you are undperforming others.
Be honest. You wouldn’t give him any credit for good stock market performance no matter how good it was. If it had gone up 50% in 2017 you wouldn’t give him even a little bit of credit for it, would you? :cool:
 
Be honest. You wouldn’t give him any credit for good stock market performance no matter how good it was. If it had gone up 50% in 2017 you wouldn’t give him even a little bit of credit for it, would you?

Not if every other country was up 100%. Id be more likely to give him credit if the market was down -50%, but other states were down 75, 80%. Should also account for PPP. It's common sense to anyone with a lick of understanding of economics/competition ;). What matters is how you perform relative to the competition, not your raw percentage #. This year Trump's market performance is a failure relative to other competitor states.
 
My big winner over last 30 months is DowDuPont. Bought in at $44 a share. Initially bought a lot of it but had to liquidate some to pay for some renovations around the house. It’s trading last Friday at $75.41 and it pays a sweet divvy.

My big winner was eth, which I called on another forum at I believe $117 or $127? I called for it to hit 1k, which it has. I also called for it to flip with BTC in time. Anyone who traded on that tip has made 1000%+ and climbing.
 
Not if every other country was up 100%. Id be more likely to give him credit if the market was down -50%, but other states were down 75, 80%. Should also account for PPP. It's common sense to anyone with a lick of understanding of economics/competition ;). What matters is how you perform relative to the competition, not your raw percentage #. This year Trump's market performance is a failure relative to other competitor states.
No. Be honest. If the US stock market was up 50% and the rest of the world was up 0% you wouldn’t give him even a slight nod of credit. ;)

And the US stock market’s performance is hardly a failure. That’s your TDS speaking. I’d bet a lot of money that you’d not post anything like that if Obama was President. It’s a lot easier my way - I don’t care who’s President when my portfolio continues to make good gains.
 
No. Be honest. If the US stock market was up 50% and the rest of the world was up 0% you wouldn’t give him even a slight nod of credit. ;)

And the US stock market’s performance is hardly a failure. That’s your TDS speaking. I’d bet a lot of money that you’d not post anything like that if Obama was President. It’s a lot easier my way - I don’t care who’s President when my portfolio continues to make good gains.

I am being honest. I also wasn't paying attention to the stock market because the prior president wasn't bragging about it. Blame Trump for bringing it to my attention with his incessant bragging. It's really simple. If I added 100 points to my chess rating, but my overall global ranking fell from 100 to 150, that's hardly a success. You aren't competing in a vacuum. I also didn't call it a "failure", but instead called it a failure relative to other states. Key difference!

I criticized Obama's middle east policies just as I criticized GWB. I don't hold back.

I'm still waiting for you to engage in a "discussion" with a trump supporter ;)

You just enjoy trying to twist my arm ;) Not complaining, as I generally enjoy the practice.
 
I am being honest. I also wasn't paying attention to the stock market because the prior president wasn't bragging about it. Blame Trump for bringing it to my attention with his incessant bragging. It's really simple. If I added 100 points to my chess rating, but my overall global ranking fell from 100 to 150, that's hardly a success. You aren't competing in a vacuum. I also didn't call it a "failure", but instead called it a failure relative to other states. Key difference!

I criticized Obama's middle east policies just as I criticized GWB. I don't hold back.

I'm still waiting for you to engage in a "discussion" with a trump supporter ;)

You just enjoy trying to twist my arm ;) Not complaining, as I generally enjoy the practice.
OK. If you say so.

What kind of discussion with a Trump supporter are you waiting for me to have? I’ve had several.
 
OK. If you say so.

What kind of discussion with a Trump supporter are you waiting for me to have? I’ve had several.

I have yet to see you explicitly criticize a trump policy. Not character, but policy. In fact, to the contrary, my observation is that you defend the policies more often than not.
 
I have yet to see you explicitly criticize a trump policy. Not character, but policy. In fact, to the contrary, my observation is that you defend the policies more often than not.
I can separate the policies from the detestable person I think he is, so I like some of the policies, but not all of them. I could also like and dislike certain Obama policies. That would be a difference between me and most of the extremely partisan folks we have here. Probably between us too. You haven’t paid attention if you haven’t seen me criticize his trade policies, or his rhetoric with NK, or some of his political appointees, I think “the wall” is stupid, but like some more border security. Those are just a few examples. In the other hand, I like most of the deregulation and the idea of sending to Congress those things that should require a law rather than executive actions.
 
Ahh but we were sold the fake bill of goods on just how bad the market would tank if DT was elected. Would you have given him credit if it had tanked? What did he do different than what the "experts" claimed he would do? Sure glad he saved us from their doom and gloom.
It's not over yet, is it? One could only hope.
 
I can separate the policies from the detestable person I think he is, so I like some of the policies, but not all of them. I could also like and dislike certain Obama policies. That would be a difference between me and most of the extremely partisan folks we have here. Probably between us too. You haven’t paid attention if you haven’t seen me criticize his trade policies, or his rhetoric with NK, or some of his political appointees, I think “the wall” is stupid, but like some more border security. Those are just a few examples. In the other hand, I like most of the deregulation and the idea of sending to Congress those things that should require a law rather than executive actions.
I think some of the deregulation policies that may be good for the stock market are not good for the country, for people's health, etc. I'd take less of a portfolio gain if it's going to be bad for the environment or health.
 
I think some of the deregulation policies that may be good for the stock market are not good for the country, for people's health, etc. I'd take less of a portfolio gain if it's going to be bad for the environment or health.
Which ones? Some regulations are good, some have costs which outweigh the benefits. In my opinion more recently.
 
I have accumulated NVDA stocks throughout this decade. No, I am not selling them right now but paying close attention to it. No, I am not interested in Venezuelan stocks now. I am not good at the craps game. It was meant to be a joke. Wish you told us a few years back!:)
Yea, I knew you were joking. It has had a great run. Unfortunately, I have had maybe 5 clients in it the last 3-4 years. They think I am a hero. Wish I had everyone in it, including myself.
 
Yea, I knew you were joking. It has had a great run. Unfortunately, I have had maybe 5 clients in it the last 3-4 years. They think I am a hero. Wish I had everyone in it, including myself.

Venezuelan stocks?! Wowza! :D :p
 
I don't think the prez deserves any credit for the stock market. Specifically, when you are undperforming others.
As I said in an earlier thread, if you don't give Trump some credit, albeit a small part, for the market rise due to the tax changes, then you are either ignorant to the fact, or just dishonest. The recents tax law changes have lifted the markets, and there is absolutely no disputing that among people who understand the market.
 
I don't know...valuations are still much lower in Europe and Japan. I think a shift towards international probably makes some sense.

Vanguard has a couple of new global funds as of last November, a Global Wellington fund (1/3 income focused and 2/3 stocks) and a Global Wellesley Income Fund, which is 2/3 focused on income and 1/3 focused on stocks . . . supposed to be a couple of good funds for folks close to or already in retirement. I might "diversify" into global investments via these . . . since they're both promising in their own right . . . .

Doug, in exchange for the plug I want commissions on all new investments in these funds from this date forward . . . .
 
Vanguard has a couple of new global funds as of last November, a Global Wellington fund (1/3 income focused and 2/3 stocks) and a Global Wellesley Income Fund, which is 2/3 focused on income and 1/3 focused on stocks . . . supposed to be a couple of good funds for folks close to or already in retirement. I might "diversify" into global investments via these . . . since they're both promising in their own right . . . .

Doug, in exchange for the plug I want commissions on all new investments in these funds from this date forward . . . .
IMO, not a bad way to go. I am not saying to go hog wild on international, but I have certainly moved my exposure in international from roughly 20% to 50%.
 
As I said in an earlier thread, if you don't give Trump some credit, albeit a small part, for the market rise due to the tax changes, then you are either ignorant to the fact, or just dishonest. The recents tax law changes have lifted the markets, and there is absolutely no disputing that among people who understand the market.

We can attribute any credit that Trump might claim to a financial sugar high though . . . .
 
We can attribute any credit that Trump might claim to a financial sugar high though . . . .
I am concerned that we may be heading towards a fairly significant pullback, but I don't see it for 2-3 years. Could we see a 6-8% pullback this year? Sure. Not a big deal. But I do believe that the economy is on its way to a severe "overheating" and when that happens, bad things can happen.
 
IMO, not a bad way to go. I am not saying to go hog wild on international, but I have certainly moved my exposure in international from roughly 20% to 50%.

What proportion in bonds?

I'm moving to about 35% from 20%, and about 40% of that is in global stuff rather than true international . . . and about 40% of that is in bonds, the balance in stocks.
 
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I think some of the deregulation policies that may be good for the stock market are not good for the country, for people's health, etc. I'd take less of a portfolio gain if it's going to be bad for the environment or health.
Which ones? Some regulations are good, some have costs which outweigh the benefits. In my opinion more recently.
Mostly environmental: Dakota and Keystone pipelines, dumping toxic waste into local waters, drilling, hunting hibernating bears, controlling emissions from factories, fuel efficiency in cars.
 
I am concerned that we may be heading towards a fairly significant pullback, but I don't see it for 2-3 years. Could we see a 6-8% pullback this year? Sure. Not a big deal. But I do believe that the economy is on its way to a severe "overheating" and when that happens, bad things can happen.

I don't see any overheating unless and until wages catch fire a bit too . . . what's to overheat, I mean, other than the equities markets . . . .
 
As I said in an earlier thread, if you don't give Trump some credit, albeit a small part, for the market rise due to the tax changes, then you are either ignorant to the fact, or just dishonest. The recents tax law changes have lifted the markets, and there is absolutely no disputing that among people who understand the market.
Isn’t it more appropriate to dispense credit to a Republican majority in Congress? Tax reform is Ryan’s pet and would’ve happened if anybody with a (R) next to their name in the White House. You can probably make a decent hypothesis that capital markets would be even stronger if a more stable man occupied the Oval Office.
 
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