The Summit Thread

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

It seems like most of the other threads about the summit devolved into hackery pretty quickly (if I'm wrong, someone point it out, and I'll merge this with the older good thread), so this thread is just for dispassionate talk about what's actually happening. Keep bullshit out of it.

It appears Trump and Kim are going to sign a rather vague agreement to "keep momentum going" and that Trump has given Kim the most important non-specific thing Kim wanted - which was an agreement to treat each other as equals. So both leaders are probably on the path to claim some political victory so far, but it doesn't seem anything concrete has been agreed to. We will see in a few minutes.

 

[sglowrider]

Devil is in the details. 'Comprehensive document'

Trump also will 'absolutely' invite Kim to visit the WH.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Well, Trump choked on some words while rambling at the end, but it can't be denied it was a damn fine photo op. Kim seems a little introverted, but there seemed to be some genuine connection there. Still no word if the agreement they signed actually means anything, but Trump did say he would like to invite Kim to DC.

Politically, I think this is going better for Trump than I expected it would.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Devil is in the details. 'Comprehensive document'

Trump also will 'absolutely' invite Kim to visit the WH.

Like many here, I didn't think this summit would actually happen. Now, I will do a 180. I think there is a very real chance that Kim really does visit DC in the next two years.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Devil is in the details. 'Comprehensive document'

Trump also will 'absolutely' invite Kim to visit the WH.

Let's show some realism, though. Despite what they just said, there is a very real chance the document they just signed was nothing but vague platitudes. We'll see.

 

[sglowrider]

Well, Trump choked on some words while rambling at the end, but it can't be denied it was a damn fine photo op. Kim seems a little introverted, but there seemed to be some genuine connection there. Still no word if the agreement they signed actually means anything, but Trump did say he would like to invite Kim to DC.

Politically, I think this is going better for Trump than I expected it would.

Both want the optics.

As to Kim, in some Asian cultures, its bad to smile too much. You appear to be 'unserious' a person if you do -- even in weddings!

 

[sglowrider]

Let's show some realism, though. Despite what they just said, there is a very real chance the document they just signed was nothing but vague platitudes. We'll see.

They didnt bring any nuclear scientist to the show. So what possible details could they have trashed out?

 

[sglowrider]

Bruce has said this thing about China -- they plan in terms of decades.
In this case, Kim knows that American political masters change constantly. You negotiate a bit forward each time, knowing they you can restart some more BS/tantrum with the next POTUS.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

They didnt bring any nuclear scientist to the show. So what possible details could they have trashed out?

Probably none. But even without the technical expertise, they could craft more specific platitudes that promise more than people expect. It could all fall apart in four years, or it could be a springboard to something more. The possibility is there. Like I said, we'll see. We need to read the text of that document.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Bruce has said this thing about China -- they plan in terms of decades.
In this case, Kim knows that American political masters change constantly. You negotiate a bit forward each time, knowing they you can restart some more BS/tantrum with the next POTUS.

The Kims have been trying to play this game for decades. That's one reason I was so opposed to Trump agreeing to this summit so eagerly. Kim is the winner just by the two of them showing up.

 

[sglowrider]

The Kims have been trying to play this game for decades. That's one reason I was so opposed to Trump agreeing to this summit so eagerly. Kim is the winner just by the two of them showing up.

People always underestimate these folks. They have survived despite some harsh sanctions for two generations now. Even the Chinese cant always keep them in line.

Its different skillsets and prisms on how they view the world. KJU had got further than anyone of his predecessors -- to be on the same platform as the great leader of the USA.

This will buy him so much prestige and time now for a long, long time. One of golfing buddy is South Korean -- he told me the difference between the two cultures is that the North Koreans are tough mofos. They can endure so much pain and sacrifices ie south koreans are pussies by comparison.
So this event will solidify his control on the nation for a long, long time.

 

[sglowrider]

If the secret service is smart, they should load up with local fuel for The Beast. we use minimum 98 octane gas here.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

People always underestimate these folks. They have survived despite some harsh sanctions for two generations now. Even the Chinese cant always keep them in line.

Its different skillsets and prisms on how they view the world. KJU had got further than anyone of his predecessors -- to be on the same platform as the great leader of the USA.

This will buy him so much prestige and time now for a long, long time. One of golfing buddy is South Korean -- he told me the difference between the two cultures is that the North Koreans are tough mofos. They can endure so much pain and sacrifices ie south koreans are pussies by comparison.
So this event will solidify his control on the nation for a long, long time.

You seem to be our resident expert on Asian personality. What did you think of Kim's relative quiet compared to Trump? Normal for the culture, unique to Kim, or a sign of how the talks went?

 

[sglowrider]

You seem to be our resident expert on Asian personality. What did you think of Kim's relative quiet compared to Trump? Normal for the culture, unique to Kim, or a sign of how the talks went?

There are some possible factors to consider:

1) Kim, being Asian has been trained to be in deference to an older man/person, plus a more powerful leader. Hierarchical perspective.
2) He is a bit star-struck to be at an event of this magnitude --when you consider that he has not met anyone of substance until this Spring.
3) As mentioned before, some Asian cultures don't smile simply because they want to be taken seriously. Very formal.
I have done MOUs with the press involved!! Some Asian cultures like the formality even when the document offers with little commercial or legal value.

I have a suspicion this is an MOU like signing. There is no way you can get to any major agreement in such short space of time. Good optics for both Trump and Kim.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

There are some possible factors to consider:

1) Kim, being Asian has been trained to be in deference to an older man/person, plus a more powerful leader. Hierarchical perspective.
2) He is a bit star-struck to be at an event of this magnitude --when you consider that he has not met anyone of substance until this Spring.
3) As mentioned before, some Asian cultures don't smile simply because they want to be taken seriously. Very formal.
I have done MOUs with the press involved!! Some Asian cultures like the formality even when the document offers with little commercial or legal value.

I have a suspicion this is an MOU like signing. There is no way you can get to any major agreement in such short space of time. Good optics for both Trump and Kim.

AFP reporting:

NK - agrees to complete denuclearization
USA - agrees to "security guarantees"

We'll see what that means, and how it holds up in the future, but as far as platitudes go, they are pretty ambitious.

IMPORTANT EDIT:

Hold on, AFP reporting that Kim agreed to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That's a detail that suggests Trump might have been fleeced.

 

[sglowrider]

AFP reporting:

NK - agrees to complete denuclearization
USA - agrees to "security guarantees"

We'll see what that means, and how it holds up in the future, but as far as platitudes go, they are pretty ambitious.

IMPORTANT EDIT:

Hold on, AFP reporting that Kim agreed to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That's a detail that suggests Trump might have been fleeced.

Didn't Clinton sign something like denuke of North Korea too?
Lost in translation is the excuse.

 

[sglowrider]

The advantage Kim has had for this Summit is the global/free press. He would have known the type of person Trump is -- his tweets and the need to get something done after the botch-up in Hellanda aka Canada.
Maybe they needed some international lawyers instead to go through the agreement if AFP is correct -- instead of two soldiers and a wannabe soldier next to Trump.

 

[sglowrider]

You seem to be our resident expert on Asian personality. What did you think of Kim's relative quiet compared to Trump? Normal for the culture, unique to Kim, or a sign of how the talks went?

Or he was just fascinated by Trump's exotic hairstyle.
Kim: ''Is that the rage in the USA? It's weird! That would be too much in conservative Pyongyang.''

 

[meridian]

They didnt bring any nuclear scientist to the show. So what possible details could they have trashed out?

Did they have a tweeting contest?

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Well, Trump choked on some words while rambling at the end, but it can't be denied it was a damn fine photo op. Kim seems a little introverted, but there seemed to be some genuine connection there. Still no word if the agreement they signed actually means anything, but Trump did say he would like to invite Kim to DC.

Politically, I think this is going better for Trump than I expected it would.

A lot of the cautious optimism I have is immediately burdened after reading the ramblings of our president in the press conference transcript.

I see nothing actionable about verifications and certifications. I see nothing Otto Warmbier except that apparently trump is good friends with his family. I see that he essentially tipped that we don’t really want to do military exercises in that area. Master negotiator.

Edit: oh I almost forgot. President Xi of China, who jut declared himself President for Life, is a “great man, great leader, and a very good friend” of our president. So we got that going for us, which is nice.

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/12/17452624/trump-kim-summit-transcript-press-conference-full-text

 

[MonroeCity]

AFP reporting:

NK - agrees to complete denuclearization
USA - agrees to "security guarantees"

We'll see what that means, and how it holds up in the future, but as far as platitudes go, they are pretty ambitious.

IMPORTANT EDIT:

Hold on, AFP reporting that Kim agreed to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That's a detail that suggests Trump might have been fleeced.

This gets back to the most important part, agreeing to terminology. It was important to resolve differences of interpretation for terms such as "Korean Peninsula." In the past, Pyongyang has advocated an expansive definition to include any U.S. Nuclear weapon that could impact the Korean Peninsula, regardless of where they are deployed in the world.

 

[sglowrider]

Its a comprehensive deal or so he says. The four agreements stated in the document are:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

 

[Noodle]

Its a comprehensive deal or so he says. The four agreements stated in the document are:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

A very important point is that it states “the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.”

It does not say anything about the US commitment to that. To me this statement means that the DPRK wants this but knows it still has to convince the US to agree to a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

This is all a good first step, but a lot of work remains to be done.

 

[sglowrider]

A very important point is that it states “the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.”

It does not say anything about the US commitment to that. To me this statement means that the DPRK wants this but knows it still has to convince the US to agree to a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

This is all a good first step, but a lot of work remains to be done.

Wouldn't you assume that the US has to be committed to that -- no American nuke subs, cruisers, carriers etc within a XX distance of the Korean Pen? Unless the US troops pull out and there is ZERO US security commitment to South Korea.
There still 100,000 artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.

China will be pleased.

 

[Hoosier_Hack]

I think to much emphasis is placed on the denuclearization talk and how it effects the US. At this point and time, DPRK giving up Nukes which is what a denuclearized Korean Peninsula would look like if the words are taken at face value, is a very different commitment than the US and allies. So what if the US agrees to a denuclearized peninsula? Today, we can hit anywhere in the world from various positions. We don’t need nor has it been indicated we have nukes in SK.

I agree the proof is in the pudding. But us agreeing to a denuclearized peninsula doesn’t really mean anything to us is my opinion. Look at Japan....

DPRK will still have the same nuclear gun pointing at their head wether the peninsula is denuclearized or not. If the fear is genuine on DPRK’s part, then that would truly be difficult to let go.

 

[Noodle]

Wouldn't you assume that the US has to be committed to that -- no American nuke subs, cruisers, carriers etc within a XX distance of the Korean Pen? Unless the US troops pull out and there is ZERO US security commitment to South Korea.
There still 100,000 artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.

China will be pleased.

I would assume no such thing. It may happen, but that will take a long time. Also, no way would the US ever agree to a sea based denuclearization of the type you suggest.

In fact, Trump just said that the denuclearization of the entire peninsula (i, e., by the US) was never discussed and is not on the table.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

In his interview with George S., Trump called our wargames with the South "provacative". That desperately needs walked back.

The original Kim decided to attack the South when the US Secretary of State gave a speech drawing a line through Asia describing our line of defense. Korea was outside that line. That is how literal the North takes things. I am a little concerned about the Korean peninsula wording. Noodle's explanation may be accurate, but I am not sure we know how the North viees anything.

 

[sglowrider]

I would assume no such thing. It may happen, but that will take a long time. Also, no way would the US ever agree to a sea based denuclearization of the type you suggest.

In fact, Trump just said that the denuclearization of the entire peninsula (i, e., by the US) was never discussed and is not on the table.

What would NK's ask then? It seems awfully one way. They didnt survive 3 generations by being dumb.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Wouldn't you assume that the US has to be committed to that -- no American nuke subs, cruisers, carriers etc within a XX distance of the Korean Pen? Unless the US troops pull out and there is ZERO US security commitment to South Korea.
There still 100,000 artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.

China will be pleased.

Subs and carriers are not on the pensinsula. My understanding is that we have but one Navy base and it’s a logistics base, not an operations port. I can’t see how subs and carriers in international waters would be subjected to this.

The implication for US is that this affects any tactical nukes we may or may not have in theater...I actually don’t know if we have or don’t have. The official policy I believe is we don’t.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

I think to much emphasis is placed on the denuclearization talk and how it effects the US. At this point and time, DPRK giving up Nukes which is what a denuclearized Korean Peninsula would look like if the words are taken at face value, is a very different commitment than the US and allies. So what if the US agrees to a denuclearized peninsula? Today, we can hit anywhere in the world from various positions. We don’t need nor has it been indicated we have nukes in SK.

I agree the proof is in the pudding. But us agreeing to a denuclearized peninsula doesn’t really mean anything to us is my opinion. Look at Japan....

DPRK will still have the same nuclear gun pointing at their head wether the peninsula is denuclearized or not. If the fear is genuine on DPRK’s part, then that would truly be difficult to let go.

If only all your posts were this lucid and value-adding...

 

[sglowrider]

Subs and carriers are not on the pensinsula. My understanding is that we have but one Navy base and it’s a logistics base, not an operations port. I can’t see how subs and carriers in international waters would be subjected to this.

The implication for US is that this affects any tactical nukes we may or may not have in theater...I actually don’t know if we have or don’t have. The official policy I believe is we don’t.

Ok, let's play devil's advocate and put yourself in Kim's position. Why give up your nukes and not ask the other side to give up theirs? International waters or otherwise.
I just cant see Kim so willing to give up the thing/weapon that got him to the position of global power and prestige.

A lifting of sanctions? I am sure China will let a bit through considering Trump's relationship vis a vis tariff now.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Ok, let's play devil's advocate and put yourself in Kim's position. Why give up your nukes and not ask the other side to give up theirs? International waters or otherwise.
I just cant see Kim so willing to give up the thing/weapon that got him to the position of global power and prestige.

A lifting of sanctions? I am sure China will let a bit through considering Trump's relationship vis a vis tariff now.

It appears from my point of view that the Kims have been triumphant as a dynasty. They commit endless internal atrocities, have no respect for human rights, provoke their neighbors to the south and were punished via sanctions for it.

Because the Kims were not going to change, they figured out that the only way to get the sanctions lifted is to build something that scares the sanctioners. They’ve now done so and have scared the sanctioners. Sanctions will be lifted in exchange for tearing down the scary thing, and business as usual of human rights violations and atrocities will continue. Masterful.

“Another huge problem is the horrible record they have on human rights. Was that discussed at all? Is that something you will tackle in the future?”

“>> Yes, it was discussed. It will be discussed more in the future. Human rights. What was discussed in great detail, John, was the fact we have and I must have had — I just had countless calls and letters. Anything you can do. They want the remains of their sons back and remains of their fathers and mothers. All of the people that got caught to that brutal war which took place to a large extent in North Korea.”

Just wow

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I think we will soon see the future of this. If North Korea's media portrays this as a major US concession, it was a stunt.

 

[sglowrider]

It appears from my point of view that the Kims have been triumphant as a dynasty. They commit endless internal atrocities, have no respect for human rights, provoke their neighbors to the south and were punished via sanctions for it.

Because the Kims were not going to change, they figured out that the only way to get the sanctions lifted is to build something that scares the sanctioners. They’ve now done so and have scared the sanctioners. Sanctions will be lifted in exchange for tearing down the scary thing, and business as usual of human rights violations and atrocities will continue. Masterful.

“Another huge problem is the horrible record they have on human rights. Was that discussed at all? Is that something you will tackle in the future?”

“>> Yes, it was discussed. It will be discussed more in the future. Human rights. What was discussed in great detail, John, was the fact we have and I must have had — I just had countless calls and letters. Anything you can do. They want the remains of their sons back and remains of their fathers and mothers. All of the people that got caught to that brutal war which took place to a large extent in North Korea.”

Just wow

Tbf to Trump, I do not think the first meeting would be the appropriate timing for discussing human rights. Besides, its just not a concern ever for Trump. Power and money are his currencies.

Apparently, China has just asked for the lifting of sanction ASAP and yet in the agreement, NK have given vague statements but no definite concessions:

• North Korea has not revealed the extent of their nuclear capabilities.
• North Korea has not given a timeframe for denuclearisation. It could be next month or next twenty years -- even though Trump has said they will do it soon.
• North Korea has not given any commitment to allow the IAEA or any oversight on its nuclear disarmament. There is literarily no way to verify anything even if Trump said they had talked about it.

Trump has ended military exercises and got nothing in return -- apparently, he thinks its provocative and a waste of money by bombing rocks.
Skeptical is the word. Kim has played this brilliantly.

He knows Trump is only interested in the show and not any substance nor has the patience for a multi-year negotiation process.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Tbf to Trump, I do not think the first meeting would be the appropriate timing for discussing human rights. Besides, its just not a concern ever for Trump. Power and money are his currencies.

Apparently, China has just asked for the lifting of sanction ASAP and yet in the agreement, NK have given vague statements but no definite concessions:

• North Korea has not revealed the extent of their nuclear capabilities.
• North Korea has not given a timeframe for denuclearisation. It could be next month or next twenty years -- even though Trump has said they will do it soon.
• North Korea has not given any commitment to allow the IAEA or any oversight on its nuclear disarmament. There is literarily no way to verify anything even if Trump said they had talked about it.

Trump has ended military exercises and got nothing in return -- apparently, he thinks its provocative and a waste of money by bombing rocks.
Skeptical is the word. Kim has played this brilliantly.

He knows Trump is only interested in the show and not any substance nor has the patience for a multi-year negotiation process.

I doubt Trump has actually ended military exercises immediately. Nothing happens that quickly in the military.

 

[sglowrider]

I doubt Trump has actually ended military exercises immediately. Nothing happens that quickly in the military.

He wants to increase military budget but concerned about wastage on war games/exercises. Does he just want to spend it on big shiny items/hardware only?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I doubt Trump has actually ended military exercises immediately. Nothing happens that quickly in the military.

I believe the next wargames are in August, so he couldn't change anything before then (officially).

I'm not military, maybe someone who was can explain the value of wargames. I would think that, properly held, they can be very beneficial. Improperly held was Germany always letting the Kaiser's side win every wargame easily. So in my mind, we are giving something up with them. It may well be worth it for a nuke free North, I am not saying it isn't. But I still do not like the "provocative" statement.

 

[sglowrider]

 

[Marvin the Martian]

View embedded media

Trump is in a difficult place. If we put eliminating nukes as #1, then human rights have lower priority by definition. Churchill once said about being allied with Stalin that he (Churchill) would put a good word in at parliament for the devil if the devil helped defeat Hitler. That is sort of where Trump is with the nukes.

On the other hand, he has a long history of praising dictators and dissing democratically elected leaders. So I get the concern. And maybe Trump is going too far. But until it plays out, I can't be too critical. Maybe you can catch more flies with honey.

 

[sglowrider]

Trump is in a difficult place. If we put eliminating nukes as #1, then human rights have lower priority by definition. Churchill once said about being allied with Stalin that he (Churchill) would put a good word in at parliament for the devil if the devil helped defeat Hitler. That is sort of where Trump is with the nukes.

On the other hand, he has a long history of praising dictators and dissing democratically elected leaders. So I get the concern. And maybe Trump is going too far. But until it plays out, I can't be too critical. Maybe you can catch more flies with honey.

Agree. Too much to bite on in the first meeting, if it ever get brought up.