***Georgia:
--best wins: Clemson, Auburn, Arkansas
--still to go: At FL, TN, GT; at home v. UK.....v. Bama in SEC CG
***Iowa:
--best wins: IU, Iowa St, PSU
--still to go: at Nebraska.....v. OSU in BT CG
***Cincy:
--best wins: at IU, at ND
--still to go: SMU at home; Tulane & USF at home....CG v. SMU??
***Oklahoma:
--best wins: Neb at home, Texas on NS
--still to go: TSU, Iowa St at home; at Baylor & Oklahoma St.
***Alabama:
--best wins: Fla at FL, Ole Miss
--still to go: Ark at home, at AUB....CG v. GA
***Ohio State:
--best wins: None
--still to go: At IU, Neb, Michigan; PSU, MSU at home....CG v. Iowa
***Penn State:
--best wins; At WIS, AUB at home
--still to go: at OSUMSU; Michigan at home
***Michigan:
--best wins: Washington, at Neb & WIS
--still to go: at PSU, MSU; OSU at home
***Oregon:
--best wins: at OSU, Fresno at home
--still to go: at UCLA, Wash & Utah....CG v. ASU
***Oklahoma State:
--best wins: at Boise St, Kansas St & Baylor at home
--still to go: at TX, Iowa St & WV; TCU & OK at home
***Notre Dame:
--best wins: at WIS & GT
--still to go: GT, UNC & USC at home; at Stanford
I've left off undefeated Wake & MSU.
So the questions are.....who do you think SHOULD make it....and who do you think WILL make it?
Here are some thoughts of mine:
--IF OSU beats PSU, MSU, Michigan & Iowa they're definitely in, even if Oregon wins out....due to Oregon's horrible schedule and because it was OSU's 1st game.
--Iowa has a cakewalk remaining schedule, as does UC. If both win out, and Iowa loses a close one to OSU in the BTCG, I think Cincy gets in. As to who should get in....I think Iowa-Cincy would be a very, very close game. I love Iowa generally, but Petras is a stiff. Reminds me of Coan at ND, without the accuracy. Iowa would get demolished in a playoff game v. Bama or GA. But they're good enough to beat anyone else because they could keep Petras upright against other teams.
--Hard to see PSU as a reasonable candidate, but IF they beat OSU, Michigan, MSU & Iowa they'd probably get in in lieu of Iowa or Cincy
--Hard to see Michigan as a reasonable candidate, but the path is there--beat PSU, MSU, OSU & iowa. I think most people see PSU as better than Michigan, but I really think Michigan is a bit of a sleeper.
--So how does Cincy win out & still not make the playoffs? I think it would be hard as there will be a lot of pressure to put them in over someone like Iowa, Oregon, Oklahoma (assuming 1 loss). I think ND would have to lose....probably two games, which seams unlikely. ND seems to be winning the close games this year and they have 3-4 more close ones.
--What about Oklahoma? Obviously they're in if they win out. But, they were so unimpressive in their wins v. Tulane, Nebraska, WV & KSU that I doubt they get in with a loss. And I don't see them going 4/4 v. TCU, Iowa St, Baylor & OK State....unless that new freshman stud QB that helped beat Texas the real deal. I'm guessing that the DCs figure him out a little with some tape, and that OK loses one. If not, they'll be destroyed by the likes of GA or Bama in the playoff.
--The worst case scenario is what generally happens.....so I see Bama beating GA in the SEC CG, and both getting into the playoffs. Imagine the motivation Bama would have in that game.....Saban doesn't lose games like that.
--Oregon might win out, and if they do they'd have a good argument. They have to beat UCLA, Washington & Utah, all on the road, and ASU in the PAC CG. I think they lose one of those games. Even if they don't, I see them losing out if OSU or Iowa run the table.
My guess: OSU runs the table, Bama beats Ga in the SEC CG, Cincy finishes with 0 losses, OK loses a game. and it ends up:
--Bama
--GA
--OSU
--Cincy
Bama crushes Cincy, GA handles OSU with relative ease, Bama & GA a toss-up in final game.
--best wins: Clemson, Auburn, Arkansas
--still to go: At FL, TN, GT; at home v. UK.....v. Bama in SEC CG
***Iowa:
--best wins: IU, Iowa St, PSU
--still to go: at Nebraska.....v. OSU in BT CG
***Cincy:
--best wins: at IU, at ND
--still to go: SMU at home; Tulane & USF at home....CG v. SMU??
***Oklahoma:
--best wins: Neb at home, Texas on NS
--still to go: TSU, Iowa St at home; at Baylor & Oklahoma St.
***Alabama:
--best wins: Fla at FL, Ole Miss
--still to go: Ark at home, at AUB....CG v. GA
***Ohio State:
--best wins: None
--still to go: At IU, Neb, Michigan; PSU, MSU at home....CG v. Iowa
***Penn State:
--best wins; At WIS, AUB at home
--still to go: at OSUMSU; Michigan at home
***Michigan:
--best wins: Washington, at Neb & WIS
--still to go: at PSU, MSU; OSU at home
***Oregon:
--best wins: at OSU, Fresno at home
--still to go: at UCLA, Wash & Utah....CG v. ASU
***Oklahoma State:
--best wins: at Boise St, Kansas St & Baylor at home
--still to go: at TX, Iowa St & WV; TCU & OK at home
***Notre Dame:
--best wins: at WIS & GT
--still to go: GT, UNC & USC at home; at Stanford
I've left off undefeated Wake & MSU.
So the questions are.....who do you think SHOULD make it....and who do you think WILL make it?
Here are some thoughts of mine:
--IF OSU beats PSU, MSU, Michigan & Iowa they're definitely in, even if Oregon wins out....due to Oregon's horrible schedule and because it was OSU's 1st game.
--Iowa has a cakewalk remaining schedule, as does UC. If both win out, and Iowa loses a close one to OSU in the BTCG, I think Cincy gets in. As to who should get in....I think Iowa-Cincy would be a very, very close game. I love Iowa generally, but Petras is a stiff. Reminds me of Coan at ND, without the accuracy. Iowa would get demolished in a playoff game v. Bama or GA. But they're good enough to beat anyone else because they could keep Petras upright against other teams.
--Hard to see PSU as a reasonable candidate, but IF they beat OSU, Michigan, MSU & Iowa they'd probably get in in lieu of Iowa or Cincy
--Hard to see Michigan as a reasonable candidate, but the path is there--beat PSU, MSU, OSU & iowa. I think most people see PSU as better than Michigan, but I really think Michigan is a bit of a sleeper.
--So how does Cincy win out & still not make the playoffs? I think it would be hard as there will be a lot of pressure to put them in over someone like Iowa, Oregon, Oklahoma (assuming 1 loss). I think ND would have to lose....probably two games, which seams unlikely. ND seems to be winning the close games this year and they have 3-4 more close ones.
--What about Oklahoma? Obviously they're in if they win out. But, they were so unimpressive in their wins v. Tulane, Nebraska, WV & KSU that I doubt they get in with a loss. And I don't see them going 4/4 v. TCU, Iowa St, Baylor & OK State....unless that new freshman stud QB that helped beat Texas the real deal. I'm guessing that the DCs figure him out a little with some tape, and that OK loses one. If not, they'll be destroyed by the likes of GA or Bama in the playoff.
--The worst case scenario is what generally happens.....so I see Bama beating GA in the SEC CG, and both getting into the playoffs. Imagine the motivation Bama would have in that game.....Saban doesn't lose games like that.
--Oregon might win out, and if they do they'd have a good argument. They have to beat UCLA, Washington & Utah, all on the road, and ASU in the PAC CG. I think they lose one of those games. Even if they don't, I see them losing out if OSU or Iowa run the table.
My guess: OSU runs the table, Bama beats Ga in the SEC CG, Cincy finishes with 0 losses, OK loses a game. and it ends up:
--Bama
--GA
--OSU
--Cincy
Bama crushes Cincy, GA handles OSU with relative ease, Bama & GA a toss-up in final game.
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