The latest stat: It appears that China is not the leader in Chinese Virus
- Thread starter meridian
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I don't know about Italy or Iran, but let's be honest. The huge increase in cases in the U.S. is almost entirely the result of the fact that we are finally testing on a large scale.
You think that's the reason that India is so low with all their population or are they just not releasing stats. I still have a hard time believing stats from China (I hope they are correct). I was just reading this article about them maneuvering to take advantage of the situation. Of course Trump has done nothing to improve our standing.... he's too busy patting himself on the back.
That's such a dumb chart.... I'm embarrassed for the idiot that put it together. The things that are wrong with that are too numerous to list. This kind of crap is why drives hysteria. Do better NYT.
That and all the stuff that's spread about it that are absolute lies. People forward these stupid emails and never bother to see if what they are forwarding are facts.
Number one pet peeve.... all of these data points should be confirmed "cases per capita"..... not absolute numbers.
And even that is worthless....as the levels of testing done is widely different from country to country.
Here some good stuff from an actual data scientist.....
And even that is worthless....as the levels of testing done is widely different from country to country.
Here some good stuff from an actual data scientist.....
More actual data analysis.......or an analysis of the lack of data......
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
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Wow... Thanks.... that is a very interesting read. I haven't seen anything else as good as that.
Has the appearance of a quality analysis but he conveniently and selectively ignores inconsistencies in testing as a factor undermining all the “data” he’s using. That doesn’t mean his conclusions are wrong, just that they’re not as well founded as he wants us to believe.
He clearly has an agenda. Question is, is it well intended?
That's an interesting read. Some random reactions.
If the general point is a question about whether we are overreacting, I agree that question should be asked and thoroughly examined. The discussion is starting to percolate through the country about the economic cost and the effect of the "stimulus," and whether we have made the appropriate choice.
I disagree with the point that we don't know much about how this virus transmits. I think we know a great deal about that because we know a great deal about how viruses transmit in general. We also know that this virus is highly contagious in known circumstances. We should do all that we can to limit those circumstances. I'm not so sure that requires shutting down the economy. However, Fauci is big on "flattening the curve" and I agree that is important. We simply don't have the capacity to deal with a sudden onset of millions of severely ill people. When all is said and done, I think our knowledge of viruses in general will increase orders of magnitude in a short time.
Trump keeps talking about 15 days, then "we'll see". I think that is a wise way to view the issue. The problem is that the 15 days is a different period of time for different places.
The outbreaks are highly localized and are found in clusters. The general lockdown orders issued in California, Illinois, New York and other places don't recognize that. I think that is a mistake. Maybe specific lockdowns where clusters are found is appropriate.
I'm generally in the personal responsibility camp. The first and best line of defense is what we do ourselves to keep well. If we want to isolate ourselves, we have that option. What I do want is good information upon which to base my decisions. Unfortunately, we are drifting toward wanting to be told what to do and avoiding decisions. This is apparent from the kinds of questions being asked by some reporters.
Be well.
as of a couple days ago, you can't even get a test in Indiana, even if you have some symptoms, unless you,
A), have just returned from one of the more infected countries,
B), have had contact with someone who has already tested positive. (catch 22, which is unlikely since virtually no one has access to a test).
A), have just returned from one of the more infected countries,
B), have had contact with someone who has already tested positive. (catch 22, which is unlikely since virtually no one has access to a test).
Police officers in Bloomington were able to get a test. I’m not complaining about that though. As much as they interact with public, they should. Two were tested two weeks ago and came back negative.
if only 2 were tested, something must have prompted their being tested.
have they been tested since?
A
anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
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Agreed. And from the OP’s post it’s almost like he’s happy it’s happening to own the Trumpers.
And if you're wrong -- personal responsibility or not -- others may suffer. That's why "personal" responsibility isn't enough. Viruses don't give a shit about Horatio Alger or Ayn Rand.
Like almost everything in life, our well-being starts with us, not with somebody else or with the government. If you think I'm wrong about that, I don't give a shit. If you don't want to take personal responsibility to wash hands, social distance, don't touch your face, wipe your phone, etc. etc. etc. that's okay with me.
IMO. India will be the Italy of Asia but on an epic proportion. Close quarters living, utter distrust of the government so any implementation of draconian measures will be next to impossible to maintain, massive under-reported chronics than say even the US -- due to the poor primary care system/infrastructure.
Their only saving grace is that of timing -- they have only 6% of their population over 65. Not expected to be an 'ageing' nation (ie more than 20% over 65) till nearer 2050. The US, on the other hand, will be an ageing nation by late 2030 by some estimates. Italy and Japan are already ageing nations.
They have announced a bunch of bans yesterday like curfews in some cities and possible national lockdown for all travellers in and out. But I am not sure when it will take into effect because, in my Indian experience, an announcement to implementation can involve a lifetime.
Two factors:
1) Italy's an ageing country -- much more old folks than say the US. (Singapore technically is considered an ageing nation ie 20% of the population over 65.)
2) Japan like Italy is an ageing nation -- but their beds capacity is much higher than in Italy and certainly the US. The Italian healthcare infra has been stretched beyond its capacity. Its running at 200% in some places. Whenever you see patients all sharing the same room rather than isolated rooms for infectious disease, you know you have a serious problem. Italy has some hospitals with outdoor tents!
I have said it before, containment is the key -- you keep the number small and not stress test the healthcare infrastructure then you can manage the problem. Containment isn't testing. Testing only tells you the situation on the ground.
The key to controlling the community spread is then to trace and isolate the contacts. Plus communication/education for moral and long term sustainability.
This really isn't hard.
The way to meaningfully impact an exponential growth situation is to change the slope of the increase absolutely as soon as possible.
Well unfortunately the death rate on the cruises is now 50% higher and possibly still climbing. Ultimately he has a pretty wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide death rate range. Really just depends on which side we end up on.
On a serious note, you should not do lockdowns too early. It's just not possible to sustain. Then what after 2 months? Martial law? You cant blow your wad too early as anyone can tell you.
It has to be incrementally escalated.
how do you know when "too soon" is?
that said, saying lockdowns are unsustainable isn't really accurate.
if the sht starts hitting the fan, and people we know of even remotely die or need a respirator, "sustainability" will greatly increase.
Anne Frank might have an opinion on this.
last night Amy Klobuchar looked like she was fighting back the tears and speaking in a broken voice, due to her husband being hospitalized with it.
as time goes by, this could hit home with those for whom it hasn't yet.
One thing I'm having a difficult time understanding concerns the number of people that are reported to die from this particular virus. The most susceptible are the ones most likely to be dying, regardless of the virus or now...the immune compromised and the old. How do they know if it's the virus that killed them? People die of pneumonia all the time. People with congestive heart failure get edema on the lungs and die. They listed an 80+ year old today as being a Covid-19 victim. They go on to say he had cancer for 15 years and battled COPD during this same time. I assume when anyone dies now, they do a virus test. They tell us it can be in our system severals days without symptoms, obviously not yet strong enough to kill us. So if the old man with CA and COPD dies, how can they count him as a virus death without really knowing? During this last month...all these thousands of people thinking they might have it, how many test negative for the C-19 virus, but positive for normal flu or the simple rhino cold virus? How many people with normal flu (non C-19) have died during this same period? Shouldn't they have these numbers together so we can judge just how virulent this booger really is in comparison? Maybe for all we know, more people are dying of just regular old flu than actually succumb to C-19 (or so they report for sensationalism, perhaps). This whole thing just seems a little peculiar to me. Even our Commander in Chief recently intimated something about let's not let the cure be worse than the disease. What's really going on here?
You'll get more knowledgeable as you watch your parents decline and ultimately pass. The conditions you mention
are scored on a continuum. For example no one dies from stage 1 lung cancer.
Bottom line was that there wasn't a containment strategy in play -- no coordinated tracing and tracking at a national level only at state or county levels. That will at least hold the fort down for a while and then find out who you need to quarantine. All that shouting for the lack of testing was just silly --- test kits have been out there around the world in their hundreds of thousands -- and I know this for a fact and have access to them. But its only one hand to the containment strategy -- it just gives you the raw data.
With that, you can start to track and trace then isolate. Its about buying time and flattening the curve.
Now everyone's going in semi-blind and hoping for the best and using a sledgehammer to do so. There were lessons to be learnt from other counties who are ahead of the curve, PPEs and test kits available abroad but now. You need to develop your own. America First I guess. So more delays.
This is why the trajectory for the US is actually worse than Italy's -- minimal containment. Almost a runaway train.
I said it more than two months ago -- the longer you wait to implement, the more draconian the measures needed to be. There is no coordinated attack to solving the problem. The Federal/WH response is the silver bullet solution, the vaccination. Mostly done at county or state levels.
People travel and cross state lines every day. Now what?
On a less positive note, I am seeing the 2nd wave of spread now over here.
Next week will be my 4th month into this malarkey. We had been successful in implementing a well-executed containment strategy and measures. But up to ten days ago, and as the world started to pick up the virus in a big way, we started getting foreign visitors and Singaporeans who travelled abroad for both pleasure and business coming back with the virus -- undetected at the airport despite the thermal scanners. (The incubation period is 14+ days so they can easily walk through asymptotically.)
There are many cases now where the traveller, undetected at the airport has been tracked/traced to have infected 15-20 other people since coming in. So imagine the scenario going forward?
The government here must be pulling their collective hairs out trying to figure this problem out.
They have started to do some lockdown now -- cinemas and early closing for restaurants etc now after suffering their first fatalities -- a 63y.o lady and an older Indonesian gentleman who flew in for treatment but was just too late.
Lockdowns are just not sustainable as the videos in Italy have shown -- the economic damage later is like coming back to a post-war economy with bankruptcies everywhere and yet the virus remains floating around because the under/un insureds are still there. So long can the country go into lockdown? 3 months? The psychos will all be out in force shooting each other at the drop of hat by then.
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My folks died years ago. I'm high risk category at age 69, myself. It's trying to find me now, as we "speak". So with your stage 1 lung CA analogy, what stage of CA can we say a person dies of this CA vs. dying of Covid-19, which may only be in "stage 1" but still on the news is reported as a death by virus. See what I mean, the difficulty of accurate statistics when it comes to epidemiological "cause of death" in a society?
India’s ‘Maximum City’ Mumbai Engulfed by Coronavirus
Overflowing hospitals. Exhausted cops. Desperate slums. Here are images from Mumbai as the coronavirus upends the metropolis.
The coronavirus problem that India had feared is becoming reality in Mumbai.
It is India’s most densely populated city, a scraggly peninsula framed by the Arabian Sea and other waterways, a metropolis of towering apartment blocks and endless slums, a city of oversize dreams and desperate poverty, all sandwiched together.
This nation of 1.3 billion people has been put under one of the world’s tightest lockdowns for the past seven weeks. That has kept reported coronavirus infections relatively low — around 78,000 cases reported so far. But India’s testing is relatively low, so many experts fear that the real number of infections is far higher.
The monsoons are going to hit in a few weeks. That will bring a deluge of rain, then floods. Many out-of-work migrant laborers are fleeing the city. They are embarking on journeys hundreds of miles long, hoping to reach far-flung villages where they can rely on family.
But as India is learning, this migrant exodus — which is happening across the country on a huge scale, with hundreds of thousands of people on the move — is also spreading the virus farther and wider.
People are allowed outside only if vitally necessary. In Mumbai, that means vegetable stands and markets are still crowded. Tempers are beginning to flare as residents argue with one another about standing too close. Many still don’t have masks.
Overflowing hospitals. Exhausted cops. Desperate slums. Here are images from Mumbai as the coronavirus upends the metropolis.
The coronavirus problem that India had feared is becoming reality in Mumbai.
It is India’s most densely populated city, a scraggly peninsula framed by the Arabian Sea and other waterways, a metropolis of towering apartment blocks and endless slums, a city of oversize dreams and desperate poverty, all sandwiched together.
This nation of 1.3 billion people has been put under one of the world’s tightest lockdowns for the past seven weeks. That has kept reported coronavirus infections relatively low — around 78,000 cases reported so far. But India’s testing is relatively low, so many experts fear that the real number of infections is far higher.
The monsoons are going to hit in a few weeks. That will bring a deluge of rain, then floods. Many out-of-work migrant laborers are fleeing the city. They are embarking on journeys hundreds of miles long, hoping to reach far-flung villages where they can rely on family.
But as India is learning, this migrant exodus — which is happening across the country on a huge scale, with hundreds of thousands of people on the move — is also spreading the virus farther and wider.
People are allowed outside only if vitally necessary. In Mumbai, that means vegetable stands and markets are still crowded. Tempers are beginning to flare as residents argue with one another about standing too close. Many still don’t have masks.
The stats are useless. China can’t be trusted at all. Testing isn’t consistent in all countries.
Of course China cannot be trusted. We must trust what our president says. Right, stoll?
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