That was satisfying....
- Thread starter Hoops Cat
- Start date
I don't make predictions, I'm not a soothsayer nor do I own a crystal ball. We gauge reasonable expectations by using a spreadsheet based on PER and historical averages but only as a starting point. I then apply the look test to form a hopefully unbiased and reasonable opinion.
We rated IU 5th in the nation in talent and 2nd in the conference in the same. Using Crean's historical coaching variable, it dropped us to 11th nationally and 4th in conference. That's where my expectations, considering Crean's negative effect, were, to begin the season. They dropped accordingly. I along with others all agreed we had final four talent with a play in game coach.
If it were an average value coach like Tubby Smith, or Roy Williams, I would have expected a championship and a final four run. If we had a positive value coach, like Izzo, Stevens, Marshall, Coach K, Self, Knight I would expect a championship run and be disappointed we didn't get there. (Actually i don't think much of Izzo, he does better with less talented teams and underperforms with super talented teams) We have Crean, and sigh ...
Using PER as our standard we're not the best team in conference. MSU is. Which is also a rating sagarin and pomeroy agree with. Using the same as an expectation for post season, elite eight is a wash, sweet sixteen a fail and final four or better a win. So elite eight is my projection.
The four teams rated higher in talent nationally were in order UNC, Maryland, UK, Duke. They've all had issues. Remember that's a talent rating only not a projection. Also, Turgeon's coaching variable is almost low as Crean's. So I truly expected a Maryland meltdown. (I also expected an IU meltdown. Win some lose some) He is also a negative coach. As is McCaffery, who was the biggest surprise this year. But he became who he is late in the season as did Turgeon.
Crean, McCaffery and Turgeon are the three lowest rated coaches in conference. Followed by Collins and Groce. Every other coach has a positive rating, Painter is basically a 0 value coach. He doesn't help a team but he doesn't hinder them either.
Beilein, Izzo, Matta - the three highest. They win more with less and rarely fall short of expectations based on talent. The first three win less with more. They rarely perform to their talent. Crean for example has had three positive years in his career (counting this one) and only barely. He's never had a year like McCaffery has had this year, or anything close to what Ryan and Stevens used to do on a regular basis.
We had Maryland, MSU, and Michigan above us in conference ratings after the coaching variable was applied. Michigan was devastated by injuries and Walton just isn't developing. So they have an excuse and it places us third.
Also, the coach who did the mostest with the leastest was Gard. He deserved COY for finishing where he did with that roster.
Well it is strange that he tracks that stat and even stranger he goes on national TV bleating it while waving a paper around. Just one of his many weirdoisms. there's a reason he's called Tommy Basketball
No I quit watching dumby ball last year. Will not buy anything with IU on it, cancelled my Big Ten network, and packed away all my gear. Sorry, but I don't enable mediocrity. I saw maybe four minutes of a game while in a bar eating. I haven't missed anything. Same dumbies, same dumb.
I can't take it, it pisses me off, I find myself rooting for the other team, which makes me just hate watching IU. This low IQ crap is better made for Fresno St, LSU or UNLV than IU. I get my basketball fix by watching well coached mid major teams. Better basketball, and no clowns. Maybe after Troy leaves, I may be able to handle it but the combination of Crean and Williams is just too much dumb for me to enjoy.
I still read the analytics, for reference only, (tourney's coming) so I can see the improvements (probably have a better grasp what they are than most, especially those that never played - ha ha ha) but no I will never buy into this coach. I'm done with him. Even when it's good, you know it'll soon be at it's worst, again, and it's just not worth it. Much better ways to spend time, much better basketball being played elsewhere.
Ask for speculation and that's what you get.
The positive scenarios to firing a mediocre coach at IU far outweigh the negative scenarios.
Being "evolved" has nothing to do with understanding that this season has been an outlier when compared to Crean's entire body of work. BECAUSE of that, some of us see it as a setback in getting the coach that is right for the job. There are many reasons that this season turned out better than either we thought or that it should have. JBJ going down and forcing Crean to play OG and JM, both of whom were/are more committed to actually playing D. Yogi committing to playing high level D and alternately playing out of his mind on the offensive side most of the year. TW limiting his stupid play over the last part of the season. The D part is directly attributable to Rob Judson. The ONLY part attributable to Crean is limiting the hardcore practices that he used to have late in the season and pulling TW (and other guys) when they don't value the ball and/or make an idiotic play. Both of those things should be standard practice already for ANY coach, much less one that's been doing it for the better part of 20 years AND who makes 3 mil per.
This year will do nothing but set IU basketball back 3-5 years, because it gives Crean more rope. If you don't understand the greater good, I can't help you. It's not about some narrative of "wanting to be miserable". It's about wanting what's best for the program and wanting to start down that path as soon as possible.
This year will do nothing but set IU basketball back 3-5 years, because it gives Crean more rope. If you don't understand the greater good, I can't help you. It's not about some narrative of "wanting to be miserable". It's about wanting what's best for the program and wanting to start down that path as soon as possible.
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@zeke4ahs
I'll say it again: Coach Crean meet expectations at IU this season. Remember Calbert's jr. year? That team went 27-7, and I read articles that maybe it was time for Knight to hang it up. Calbert had regressed, a hometown kid had transferred, the team was worn out at seasons end. Had IU not redeemed the season by making a final 4 run, IU fans would had considered 91-92 a bust. We lost to UK, lost to a crappy PU team. Think about that. That was how IU seasons were viewed back then, with a lot of expectation.
Now, going 15-3 in a weak big ten with an advantageous schedule is considered a national championship by you and others. I got news for you Zeke, and the other CBL's: Tom Crean still hasn't done shit at IU. It is year 8. We have a grand total of 4 NCAA wins, and have missed the tourney as early as 2 seasons ago. Also, kind of a little early to be crowing about Tom, right? I mean we haven't even played a game in the BTT yet.
IU fans EXPECT big ten titles. IU should finish in the top 3 almost every year. We should beat Northwestern.
For the one millionth time, I don't care how many games Crean wins at IU: he is a true POS. The way he treated Calbert and Don Fischer should have gotten him fired 2 seasons ago, but the ridiculous buyout prevented that. I am tired of players getting kicked off the team to free up another ride. Anyone that thinks the ends justify the means should root for UK. All the Crean lovers can only point to THIS season as justification to keep Crean. I can point to his whole career of mediocrity to highlight your stupidity.
IU will regret keeping Crean around.
I'll say it again: Coach Crean meet expectations at IU this season. Remember Calbert's jr. year? That team went 27-7, and I read articles that maybe it was time for Knight to hang it up. Calbert had regressed, a hometown kid had transferred, the team was worn out at seasons end. Had IU not redeemed the season by making a final 4 run, IU fans would had considered 91-92 a bust. We lost to UK, lost to a crappy PU team. Think about that. That was how IU seasons were viewed back then, with a lot of expectation.
Now, going 15-3 in a weak big ten with an advantageous schedule is considered a national championship by you and others. I got news for you Zeke, and the other CBL's: Tom Crean still hasn't done shit at IU. It is year 8. We have a grand total of 4 NCAA wins, and have missed the tourney as early as 2 seasons ago. Also, kind of a little early to be crowing about Tom, right? I mean we haven't even played a game in the BTT yet.
IU fans EXPECT big ten titles. IU should finish in the top 3 almost every year. We should beat Northwestern.
For the one millionth time, I don't care how many games Crean wins at IU: he is a true POS. The way he treated Calbert and Don Fischer should have gotten him fired 2 seasons ago, but the ridiculous buyout prevented that. I am tired of players getting kicked off the team to free up another ride. Anyone that thinks the ends justify the means should root for UK. All the Crean lovers can only point to THIS season as justification to keep Crean. I can point to his whole career of mediocrity to highlight your stupidity.
IU will regret keeping Crean around.
This is stupid. If he catches hell for all the bad seasons he has to be given the credit for a really good season. You can't start picking out things and saying Crean doesn't get credit for it. He's ultimately the one responsible for wins and losses, regardless of how they materialize.
I don't know what the greater good is. I think that if a clearly better coach becomes available we should make a change, but until then I think Crean has earned a few more years at the helm. I also don't see too many clearly better coaches becoming available and/or wanting to take the IU job. Stevens and Marshall are the only two I consider clearly better alternatives and neither of them are leaving their respective jobs. We can argue about 7 or 8 others but you'll never convince me they're clearly better. You may be right, I may be crazy.
And beyond that Marshall won't make the NCAA this year in all probability. There are no guarantees not named Stevens, and he has a job.
Well when he has one - he probably will.
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I was always under the impression that the post season results were included in the measure of a successful season.....when did this change? especially at IU?
Lunardi has them in as an 8 seed, so perhaps I'm mistaken. WSU did lose to Illinois State, Northern Iowa (twice), and Tulsa. We'd be going apeshit with those losses and an 8 seed. And Jerry Palm has them in the first four out. So it's going to be close for them. That doesn't diminish Marshall as a coach to me, but it shows, as I said, there are no guarantees.
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Northern Iowa made the dance, correct? I think they beat Evansville for the MVC title, but I am probably wrong.
Yes, and they are 22-12 with some horrific losses, including to Loyola, SIU, and Missouri State. Palm has them as a 13 seed. They're a really solid program, but they aren't that good this year.
It hasn't, but the season so far has been excellent. We're ranked in the top ten, won the conference outright, won on the road, undefeated at home, beat our biggest rival and three other ranked teams in the last month.
MVC generally gets multiple teams in. that 11th rating in Pomeroy is glaring. They're in no doubt.
I hope so. I love watching WSU play, and I'm an Illinois State and MVC fan. I'm rooting for them to get multiple teams in.
Sure.....and the first few seasons of Lost were intriguing and exciting......then the writers suddenly took several hits of bad acid and the plot slowly became a bad "choose your own adventure" book....i.e. the ending was pure tripe. I like great endings to movies, stories.....don't you? I could give a chit less what happened in the first few scenes/chapters if the end is crap.....I'll never read/watch it again. Fk all of it.
No doubt......Crean has a wonderful opportunity that he's either worked very hard for or it essentially fell into his lap. Either way if he wants to continue coaching here he better not fk this up. Remember 2013?.....great team, great opportunity......huge fk up. Post season history doesn't bode well for IU under him.....if the same happens this year, pack your bags Tommy TuTone.
Oh, it could very likely end like this
or this
but until then I'm actually getting pretty excited about the post season. Crean is untouchable until we see this season end, right or wrong.
The fact that you're conparing IU to a MVC team says it all about IU under Crean.
Jesus... if Marshall recruited to IU the expectations would be different than some school in bumfvck witchita.
It's true.... I know.....I guess I was just expressing how it should go if the IU admin had half a brain.
But they don't......so......phuckin' yippie ki A.
Crean is untouchable now. We could lose the next two games by 20 and there is not going to be a change this year. Guys don't get fired after winning the conference by two games, regardless of post season failures.
Now a post season meltdown (pre-Sweet 16 loss) keeps the doubts in place and shortens his leash, for certain. But the ship has sailed for a change in 2016.
The only thing we can say about this season so far us that it hasn't been bad.
IU lost more games it was favored in then won games it was a dig in. They held serve the rest of the way.
Sadly, with lowered expectations and Crean's history, this is a resounding success.
Iu and Crean still have a chance to make it a great season. The finals of the BTT should be expected and a FF would make this a really good season based on roster, pre season ranking and current ranking.
With the unbalanced schedules, the regular season title is nice, but not what it used to be.
Iu has had fewer head scratching loses then years past, so that is good.
Now the chips are on the table and it's time to make some noise.
I'm not comparing IU to them dipshit. Just noting that's another lazy, dishonest argument you're trying to make.
Yes you did you dumb motherfvcker. Here's your quote:
That is a direct comparison between IU's fans ("we") and expectations and WSU's (those losses).
You guys are so ignorant you can't even comprehend the words you write down. I know most of you dumbshits don't know anything about basketball, but is it too much to ask that you have a working concept of the godd@mn English language?
Dishonest?....you jack@ss Crean apologist ignoramus.
Giving him FULL credit. For not effing it up like he normally does. He doesn't have to be given credit for anything. I'll give him credit for getting OG and JM. I'll give him credit for doing away with the defensive switches mid possession (which was idiotic to begin with). If you want to make this season out to be a glorious success then congrats on your lowered expectations. Crean has once again succeeded.
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We don't consider the conference or tourney champs "champions", but instead the over all leader in SOS weighted win percentage in conference games after the conference tourney. So basically OSU finished first in 13. I don't care how anyone else ranks them or what it says on the many banners we hang for pity's sake. MSU, so far, is this year's champion. They're also the best team.
I was telling a guy at work today the same thing that MSU and Kansas are the best two teams by far and MSU could win it all.
No coach at IU should ever have more years on his tenure than he has wins in the NCAA tournament. That should absolutely be a given.
When TMP posts intel on their metrics, I pay attention.
I guess the "they" is the inner circle, if their was an inner circle. Which if their was an "inner circle" is basically a collection of 'mo's. NTTAWWTOC.
But, that said, their basketball stats are compelling.
Was I taking to you, Idiot? No, I was talking to Zizkov and your dumbass is being rude entering our conversation. This isn't a conversation for common dumbies, so you have no place in it. When the smart people talk you should just STFU and listen. Go the fk away. Don't speak to me again until I give you permission.
MmmmK
I've been a KPom subscriber for at least 8 years. If I'm interested in metrics I'll go there.
