9-9 is a minimum threshold to have a shot at the tourney (and that may now not be enough).
They need 4 more wins:
1.) PU (truly a must-win for Crean. Looking at the remainder, it simply doesn't look possible to get to 9 conference wins if they fall to 5-7 with 4 remaining road games.
I'm not sure the rest will matter now. Obviously, they must beat UM and Northwestern. In my mind, the other two wins necessary are Iowa or Minnesota and Purdue, all on the road. And really, considering that Iowa and Minnesota are both heading toward about 8-10 in the conference, IU may need all three games.
One would think that 10-8 in the Big Ten would put IU 6th or 7th, depending on how MSU and Northwestern finish. But 10-8 with wins over Kansas, Purdue, MSU, UNC and NW, plus multiple road wins at the end of the season, would be enough to get in. At this point though, a 9-9 finish, especially if the extra loss is @ Purdue, would put them in real jeopardy of missing the tourney.
So, I think the conclusion here is that IU must win 3 of the 4 remaining road games to have a good chance of the tourney and they could possibly get in if they win 2 of 4 road games, as long as one of them is @ Purdue.
I don't think anyone believes they are capable of doing that right now, so I won't speculate. But that is the task ahead for these Hoosiers.
2.) UM (very winnable. Blackmon will be back and Michigan never plays defense)
Say they get to 7-6 here. It would generate a positive outlook, with a certified good conference win. Personally, I think IU matches up just fine against Purdue. Purdue is not a team that likes to run and guard the transition 3. IU can get them into an uncomfortable style of play and it is a pressure-packed home game (which, honestly has not been as big a weak spot for Crean as other areas).
3.) @ Minny. Difficult place to play. However, Minnesota has dropped 5 of their last 6 although they have had a pretty tough conference slate thus far (6 of 10 games on the road including MSU, NW, and OSU, with hame games against MD and Wisconsin.) Despite this, Minnesota really hasn't shown that they are a formidable team and they are beatable. Nonetheless, just in case IU drops one of the home contests, let's say they lose this one so that they are now 7-7 with 4 to play.
4.) @ Iowa. Iowa is also tough to beat on the road. I expect a loss here, especially coming off last year's memorable win. The Hawkeyes are a decent team and wil benefit from OG not being there to guard Jok. IU loses. 7-8.
5.) Northwestern at home. Generally, this is an easy "W", but not this year. Nonetheless, I expect a hard fought win here. 8-8.
6.) @ Purdue. No chance IU wins this game. 8-9.
7.) @OSU. It is all on the line if it comes to this. OSU has been disappointing, but they can only be expected to be dangerous considering they too have good athletic and talented players and Motta will not rest until he gets as much out of them as possible. They have 3 Big Ten home losses by a grand total of 9 points, but they have Rutgers and Nebraska at home before IU to pick up momentum. I think the pressure on Crean will be too much here and IU will fall in a desperation game.
A glass half- full approach could obviously either select this as a "W" , and/or the Iowa game. However, I think it is safe to say that 10-8 is the ceiling. Will that get them into the tourney? Yes, I suspect it will. But 9-9 is more likely which will put them squarely on the fence. 8-10 is a possibility and that would send them to the NIT.
Anything worse than what I've described and Crean will certainly be gone. I think making the tourney will matter to Glass this year.
They need 4 more wins:
1.) PU (truly a must-win for Crean. Looking at the remainder, it simply doesn't look possible to get to 9 conference wins if they fall to 5-7 with 4 remaining road games.
I'm not sure the rest will matter now. Obviously, they must beat UM and Northwestern. In my mind, the other two wins necessary are Iowa or Minnesota and Purdue, all on the road. And really, considering that Iowa and Minnesota are both heading toward about 8-10 in the conference, IU may need all three games.
One would think that 10-8 in the Big Ten would put IU 6th or 7th, depending on how MSU and Northwestern finish. But 10-8 with wins over Kansas, Purdue, MSU, UNC and NW, plus multiple road wins at the end of the season, would be enough to get in. At this point though, a 9-9 finish, especially if the extra loss is @ Purdue, would put them in real jeopardy of missing the tourney.
So, I think the conclusion here is that IU must win 3 of the 4 remaining road games to have a good chance of the tourney and they could possibly get in if they win 2 of 4 road games, as long as one of them is @ Purdue.
I don't think anyone believes they are capable of doing that right now, so I won't speculate. But that is the task ahead for these Hoosiers.
2.) UM (very winnable. Blackmon will be back and Michigan never plays defense)
Say they get to 7-6 here. It would generate a positive outlook, with a certified good conference win. Personally, I think IU matches up just fine against Purdue. Purdue is not a team that likes to run and guard the transition 3. IU can get them into an uncomfortable style of play and it is a pressure-packed home game (which, honestly has not been as big a weak spot for Crean as other areas).
3.) @ Minny. Difficult place to play. However, Minnesota has dropped 5 of their last 6 although they have had a pretty tough conference slate thus far (6 of 10 games on the road including MSU, NW, and OSU, with hame games against MD and Wisconsin.) Despite this, Minnesota really hasn't shown that they are a formidable team and they are beatable. Nonetheless, just in case IU drops one of the home contests, let's say they lose this one so that they are now 7-7 with 4 to play.
4.) @ Iowa. Iowa is also tough to beat on the road. I expect a loss here, especially coming off last year's memorable win. The Hawkeyes are a decent team and wil benefit from OG not being there to guard Jok. IU loses. 7-8.
5.) Northwestern at home. Generally, this is an easy "W", but not this year. Nonetheless, I expect a hard fought win here. 8-8.
6.) @ Purdue. No chance IU wins this game. 8-9.
7.) @OSU. It is all on the line if it comes to this. OSU has been disappointing, but they can only be expected to be dangerous considering they too have good athletic and talented players and Motta will not rest until he gets as much out of them as possible. They have 3 Big Ten home losses by a grand total of 9 points, but they have Rutgers and Nebraska at home before IU to pick up momentum. I think the pressure on Crean will be too much here and IU will fall in a desperation game.
A glass half- full approach could obviously either select this as a "W" , and/or the Iowa game. However, I think it is safe to say that 10-8 is the ceiling. Will that get them into the tourney? Yes, I suspect it will. But 9-9 is more likely which will put them squarely on the fence. 8-10 is a possibility and that would send them to the NIT.
Anything worse than what I've described and Crean will certainly be gone. I think making the tourney will matter to Glass this year.
