It is well documented that I along with some others, notably C-$, predicted that we would win the Conference this year. I will not speak on behalf of anyone else, but clearly that prediction was laughably wrong. Had I known Hunter and Thompson were out for the year and the rest of the team was as injured as they are, I would not have made that prediction, but I own it. It’s not my first bad prediction, nor will it be my last.
I am very conflicted about the state of our Program. I like to be a consistent poster, but I don’t think I have been over the last few weeks for various reasons. Accordingly I took some time to assess my thoughts on the Program so I can go on record and where I think we are and we are I think we are heading.
There are several factors that have contributed to the current state of the Program. I am going to focus this post on more recent factors. Of course, all of these issues really started during the Knight era, but we have discussed those points to death, so they merit no further discussion in this post.
1. The first, and in my opinion by far the biggest, factor is Fred Glass’ lack of courage to fire Crean after the 2015 season. It was clear at that point that Crean’s tenure was over. Sure, we got a B1G title the following season, but given the recruiting, the roster construction and the fan discontent, Crean’s days were numbered. Our program would be on much more solid footing if the tough decision was made when it needed to be made.
2. Stemming from issue number one, Crean’s recruiting at the end of his tenure was terrible. I laughed very hard when I heard about the recent article on Peegs condemning Crean’s recruiting, because multiple posters made the same point when Peegs ran this site and were routinely characterized as heaters for doing so. It’s so intellectually dishonest after sticking up for Crean forever that I’m actually impressed with Peegs and Rabby.
Crean's failures in recruiting have resulted in too many roster spots on the current team being wasted. They each individually show moments from time to time of being good, but Davis, Green, Durham, and McRoberts are mediocre to bad players. Smith is decent, but he’s a 7th man on a good B1G team. Moore is just straight bad. Morgan is the only player worth a damn on this roster due to Crean. That’s not Archie’s fault.
Archie's recruiting has been pretty good thus far. Romeo and Rob speak for themselves, and Morgan and Thompson should have been key contributors to this team. Anderson and Jake will be interesting test cases about Arch's ability to find and develop four-year players to serve as the base of this program. Obviously neither is ready, nor where they expected to be this season. I am going to pay close attention to their development. 2019 is off to a good start, but Arch needs to close on Brooks.
3. The injuries have been killer. Hunter would have been our third best player and Thompson would have been a very nice role player. In addition, Davis and McBob are shadows of their former selves. The injuries have impacted our rotation and require that lesser players take a larger role. It also impacts practice as players can't get better without playing against other D-1 caliber guys. With 4 of 7 losses being close games, it's hard not to think we could have 3 more wins with those two players.
4. The final factor worth mentioning is Archie himself. Even considering the above factors, I think it is fair to say that this has not been his best coaching job. He’s also set himself up to be massively criticized if Forrester and Anderson don’t pan out down the road (further discussion below). Even with a flawed roster, he has to do better.
So the natural question from all this becomes is Archie the guy that gets Indiana “back”? To me the answer remains “yes”, but for the first time since April 2017 I have some doubt (which to be honest, I should always have had for any coach save for a select handful that were never taking the job).
Archie was upfront in his early press conferences that he was uncompromising on the style he wanted to implement. He has lived up to those words even if they may have resulted in short term losses for the program. I respect that, and I respect the fact that I haven’t heard a lot of excuses coming out of the program. That is a refreshing change.
To me, it appears that Archie is trying to emulate the program style of Kansas or Villanova. Of course that kind of seems stupid to say because which programs wouldn’t want to be like Kansas or Villanova over the last decade? But what I mean when I say that is, Archie looks to be assembling a roster with a mix of solid for year players with a 5-star or so each class. I like that model in theory, and think it suits the program and our fan base very well. The problem with this model is, combining it with Archie’s stubbornness on how he wants a team to play, is that it may take longer than a season or two to fully get it up and running. Where we are as a program I think this model is more realistic than the quick turnaround success we’ve seen at Kentucky and North Carolina as the two most recent examples for Blue Bloods who turned it around very quickly. In studying the establishment of many of the top programs, it has often taken coaches 3-5 years to get things going. Izzo missed the tournament his first two seasons. Bennett had a losing conference record and made the tournament just once in his first 4 seasons. Coach K had a losing conference record his first 3 seasons. Beilein had a losing record in the B1G for his first 4 seasons. It can take time to get a program up and running.
I understand and appreciate that this post could be taken as me being a homer. That's not my intention. Given my early adoption to bashing Crean and my long track record of criticizing the Program, the Athletic Department and the University, I think it's safe for me to say I call things how I see them when it comes to IU. As I said many times during the Crean era, I am not a Tom Crean (or Archie Miller) fan, I’m an IU fan. I root for the program and my University. If Archie can’t get the job done then I will have no issue whatsoever with firing him. However, even though after certain games I’m sure my frustration will cause me to say otherwise, my official position is I am going to give him a full four-year recruiting cycle before making a definitive judgment one way or the other. I am by no means a fan of everything he has done so far and I am skeptical on some of the players he has brought in. I am though satisfied that it appears he is trying to create a stable program and roster situation which I think is key for any program not named Duke or Kentucky.
In short, this season has sucked. Arch is partially to blame, no doubt, and this season has officially ended his IU honeymoon. That being said, I hope he's the guy to bring IU back and I think he is the guy to bring IU back. Time will ultimately tell, but we need to let time actually play out and let Archie establish his program with his guys
I am very conflicted about the state of our Program. I like to be a consistent poster, but I don’t think I have been over the last few weeks for various reasons. Accordingly I took some time to assess my thoughts on the Program so I can go on record and where I think we are and we are I think we are heading.
There are several factors that have contributed to the current state of the Program. I am going to focus this post on more recent factors. Of course, all of these issues really started during the Knight era, but we have discussed those points to death, so they merit no further discussion in this post.
1. The first, and in my opinion by far the biggest, factor is Fred Glass’ lack of courage to fire Crean after the 2015 season. It was clear at that point that Crean’s tenure was over. Sure, we got a B1G title the following season, but given the recruiting, the roster construction and the fan discontent, Crean’s days were numbered. Our program would be on much more solid footing if the tough decision was made when it needed to be made.
2. Stemming from issue number one, Crean’s recruiting at the end of his tenure was terrible. I laughed very hard when I heard about the recent article on Peegs condemning Crean’s recruiting, because multiple posters made the same point when Peegs ran this site and were routinely characterized as heaters for doing so. It’s so intellectually dishonest after sticking up for Crean forever that I’m actually impressed with Peegs and Rabby.
Crean's failures in recruiting have resulted in too many roster spots on the current team being wasted. They each individually show moments from time to time of being good, but Davis, Green, Durham, and McRoberts are mediocre to bad players. Smith is decent, but he’s a 7th man on a good B1G team. Moore is just straight bad. Morgan is the only player worth a damn on this roster due to Crean. That’s not Archie’s fault.
Archie's recruiting has been pretty good thus far. Romeo and Rob speak for themselves, and Morgan and Thompson should have been key contributors to this team. Anderson and Jake will be interesting test cases about Arch's ability to find and develop four-year players to serve as the base of this program. Obviously neither is ready, nor where they expected to be this season. I am going to pay close attention to their development. 2019 is off to a good start, but Arch needs to close on Brooks.
3. The injuries have been killer. Hunter would have been our third best player and Thompson would have been a very nice role player. In addition, Davis and McBob are shadows of their former selves. The injuries have impacted our rotation and require that lesser players take a larger role. It also impacts practice as players can't get better without playing against other D-1 caliber guys. With 4 of 7 losses being close games, it's hard not to think we could have 3 more wins with those two players.
4. The final factor worth mentioning is Archie himself. Even considering the above factors, I think it is fair to say that this has not been his best coaching job. He’s also set himself up to be massively criticized if Forrester and Anderson don’t pan out down the road (further discussion below). Even with a flawed roster, he has to do better.
So the natural question from all this becomes is Archie the guy that gets Indiana “back”? To me the answer remains “yes”, but for the first time since April 2017 I have some doubt (which to be honest, I should always have had for any coach save for a select handful that were never taking the job).
Archie was upfront in his early press conferences that he was uncompromising on the style he wanted to implement. He has lived up to those words even if they may have resulted in short term losses for the program. I respect that, and I respect the fact that I haven’t heard a lot of excuses coming out of the program. That is a refreshing change.
To me, it appears that Archie is trying to emulate the program style of Kansas or Villanova. Of course that kind of seems stupid to say because which programs wouldn’t want to be like Kansas or Villanova over the last decade? But what I mean when I say that is, Archie looks to be assembling a roster with a mix of solid for year players with a 5-star or so each class. I like that model in theory, and think it suits the program and our fan base very well. The problem with this model is, combining it with Archie’s stubbornness on how he wants a team to play, is that it may take longer than a season or two to fully get it up and running. Where we are as a program I think this model is more realistic than the quick turnaround success we’ve seen at Kentucky and North Carolina as the two most recent examples for Blue Bloods who turned it around very quickly. In studying the establishment of many of the top programs, it has often taken coaches 3-5 years to get things going. Izzo missed the tournament his first two seasons. Bennett had a losing conference record and made the tournament just once in his first 4 seasons. Coach K had a losing conference record his first 3 seasons. Beilein had a losing record in the B1G for his first 4 seasons. It can take time to get a program up and running.
I understand and appreciate that this post could be taken as me being a homer. That's not my intention. Given my early adoption to bashing Crean and my long track record of criticizing the Program, the Athletic Department and the University, I think it's safe for me to say I call things how I see them when it comes to IU. As I said many times during the Crean era, I am not a Tom Crean (or Archie Miller) fan, I’m an IU fan. I root for the program and my University. If Archie can’t get the job done then I will have no issue whatsoever with firing him. However, even though after certain games I’m sure my frustration will cause me to say otherwise, my official position is I am going to give him a full four-year recruiting cycle before making a definitive judgment one way or the other. I am by no means a fan of everything he has done so far and I am skeptical on some of the players he has brought in. I am though satisfied that it appears he is trying to create a stable program and roster situation which I think is key for any program not named Duke or Kentucky.
In short, this season has sucked. Arch is partially to blame, no doubt, and this season has officially ended his IU honeymoon. That being said, I hope he's the guy to bring IU back and I think he is the guy to bring IU back. Time will ultimately tell, but we need to let time actually play out and let Archie establish his program with his guys
