So much for Covid-19 just killing people who would have died anyway

[hoosboot]

One of the ideas that has been pushed by folks calling coronavirus a hoax is that the death count merely encapsulates people who were on death's door anyway. Now we're seeing that we have as many as 205,000 excess deaths so far this year. That's a pretty stunning number and may mean that the nearly 167,000 attributed to coronavirus may be an undercount.

Is there really anybody left who doubts the seriousness of this pandemic?

 

[Cortez88]

One of the ideas that has been pushed by folks calling coronavirus a hoax is that the death count merely encapsulates people who were on death's door anyway. Now we're seeing that we have as many as 205,000 excess deaths so far this year. That's a pretty stunning number and may mean that the nearly 167,000 attributed to coronavirus may be an undercount.

Is there really anybody left who doubts the seriousness of this pandemic?

Yes. I direct you to the football board.

 

[zeke4ahs]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si...en-cardiologists-report-covid-19-heart-damage
This is scary as heck.

 

[UncleMark]

Yes. I direct you to the football board.

The degree of stupidity there and on the basketball board is truly frightening.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

The degree of stupidity there and on the basketball board is truly frightening.

ok, make your case.

what stupidity are you referring too.

 

[UncleMark]

ok, make your case.

what stupidity are you referring too.

With regards to Covid.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si...en-cardiologists-report-covid-19-heart-damage
This is scary as heck.

it is scary.

that said, i think the fundamental questions are being totally ignored.

are kids on the team at greater risk of contracting covid if football is played this fall than if not?

if so, what evidence led to those conclusions?

was Trump correct that this will magically just go away, and just wrong on the timeline and all will be better by spring, or next fall, absent the reason being immunity because all the kids have already had it by then, or already had it multiple times?

 

[Lucy01]

5million have tested positive and survived 167k died, looks like good odds to me! But I am not a mentally challenged liberal!

 

[i'vegotwinners]

With regards to Covid.

please be less specific.

 

[baileyiu]

5million have tested positive and survived 167k died, looks like good odds to me! But I am not a mentally challenged liberal!

How many will have residual effects of COVID19 for the rest of their lives (up to & including shortened life expectancy)?

 

[StelioKantos]

5million have tested positive and survived 167k died, looks like good odds to me! But I am not a mentally challenged liberal!

those are actually terrible odds

good thing we know two things as facts

1. the true number of people who have had the disease is somewhere around 10x than the reported number

2. the death number is incorrect on the high side. With gunshot wounds and car accidents being put under the covid category, we know there are less obvious mistakes being made with regards to those who died from Covid vs. those who died with covid. Significant difference but counted the same

 

[Lucy01]

those are actually terrible odds

good thing we know two things as facts

1. the true number of people who have had the disease is somewhere around 10x than the reported number

2. the death number is incorrect on the high side. With gunshot wounds and car accidents being put under the covid category, we know there are less obvious mistakes being made with regards to those who died from Covid vs. those who died with covid. Significant difference but counted the same

So you’re saying the odds are better?

 

[StelioKantos]

So you’re saying the odds are better?

Orders of magnitude better

 

[Harry Hondo]

it is scary.

that said, i think the fundamental questions are being totally ignored.

are kids on the team at greater risk of contracting covid if football is played this fall than if not?

if so, what evidence led to those conclusions?

was Trump correct that this will magically just go away, and just wrong on the timeline and all will be better by spring, or next fall, absent the reason being immunity because all the kids have already had it by then, or already had it multiple times?

Oh yes, because at all the major medical schools magic is a required course and part of the treatment of all diseases. WTF?

Under Trump leadership the only thing this virus will do is spread and things will get worse and worse. That ain’t magic, it’s science and fact.

 

[hoosboot]

those are actually terrible odds

good thing we know two things as facts

1. the true number of people who have had the disease is somewhere around 10x than the reported number

2. the death number is incorrect on the high side. With gunshot wounds and car accidents being put under the covid category, we know there are less obvious mistakes being made with regards to those who died from Covid vs. those who died with covid. Significant difference but counted the same

You should read the column linked in the original post.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

One of the ideas that has been pushed by folks calling coronavirus a hoax is that the death count merely encapsulates people who were on death's door anyway. Now we're seeing that we have as many as 205,000 excess deaths so far this year. That's a pretty stunning number and may mean that the nearly 167,000 attributed to coronavirus may be an undercount.

Is there really anybody left who doubts the seriousness of this pandemic?

That's a good bit of investigative journalism, although a complaint could be made that it is lacking in one area (and this is the difference between actual research and journalism): it doesn't really examine the possibility that the 40,000 or so excess deaths that can't be explained might have been caused by something else. It assumes that they were caused by Covid. What if they were caused by our response to Covid? Or something unrelated?

For the record, I doubt any of that is actually true. Most likely, our Covid death count is too low. I'm just throwing that out there for pedantry's sake.

 

[hoosboot]

That's a good bit of investigative journalism, although a complaint could be made that it is lacking in one area (and this is the difference between actual research and journalism): it doesn't really examine the possibility that the 40,000 or so excess deaths that can't be explained might have been caused by something else. It assumes that they were caused by Covid. What if they were caused by our response to Covid? Or something unrelated?

For the record, I doubt any of that is actually true. Most likely, our Covid death count is too low. I'm just throwing that out there for pedantry's sake.

The article notes that some of the excess deaths above the 167,000 are likely due to a other factors as well, some of which are likely related to our response to the pandemic. But, the one thing it conspicuously doesn't suggest is that the 167,000 were just people who were going to die imminently anyway. To me that's the big thing with the fact that we are likely undercounting Covid deaths a distant, but still important, second.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

The article notes that some of the excess deaths above the 167,000 are likely due to a other factors as well, some of which are likely related to our response to the pandemic. But, the one thing it conspicuously doesn't suggest is that the 167,000 were just people who were going to die imminently anyway. To me that's the big thing with the fact that we are likely undercounting Covid deaths a distant, but still important, second.

That is a very good point. Probably the key point, and I glossed right over it.

 

[Noodle]

Yes. I direct you to the football board.

There's a football board? Here?

 

[Noodle]

That is a very good point. Probably the key point, and I glossed right over it.

But, on the flip side, deaths from other causes may be down due to factors related to the pandemic.

Oddly, automobile accident deaths in Ohio are actually up by 5% YTD compared to 2019. However, when you look at the other traffic-related statistics, all of those are down. Enforcement stops are down by a whopping 48%, and OVI enforcement is down 33%. Not sure what to make of it.

https://www.statepatrol.ohio.gov/statistics/default.asp#gsc.tab=0

 

[Cortez88]

But, on the flip side, deaths from other causes may be down due to factors related to the pandemic.

Oddly, automobile accident deaths in Ohio are actually up by 5% YTD compared to 2019. However, when you look at the other traffic-related statistics, all of those are down. Enforcement stops are down by a whopping 48%, and OVI enforcement is down 33%. Not sure what to make of it.

https://www.statepatrol.ohio.gov/statistics/default.asp#gsc.tab=0

Yeah I think Econ nerds are going to have a field day with all this data.

 

[Noodle]

But, on the flip side, deaths from other causes may be down due to factors related to the pandemic.

Oddly, automobile accident deaths in Ohio are actually up by 5% YTD compared to 2019. However, when you look at the other traffic-related statistics, all of those are down. Enforcement stops are down by a whopping 48%, and OVI enforcement is down 33%. Not sure what to make of it.

https://www.statepatrol.ohio.gov/statistics/default.asp#gsc.tab=0

This article posits one theory on the increase in fatalities despite significantly less driving: more extreme speeding due to empty roads. From the linked article:

"From March 24 through July 6, Ohio State Highway Patrol troopers handed out 1,159 tickets to people driving 100 miles per hour or faster. That’s a 76% increase compared to the same time frame in 2019."​

That is an enormous increase, especially given that the miles driven is likely down at least 20% YTD.

https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/...-driving-hasnrsquot-cut-ohio-traffic-deaths/2

 

[Standard Issue]

This article posits one theory on the increase in fatalities despite significantly less driving: more extreme speeding due to empty roads. From the linked article:

"From March 24 through July 6, Ohio State Highway Patrol troopers handed out 1,159 tickets to people driving 100 miles per hour or faster. That’s a 76% increase compared to the same time frame in 2019."​

That is an enormous increase, especially given that the miles driven is likely down at least 20% YTD.

https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/...-driving-hasnrsquot-cut-ohio-traffic-deaths/2

The excess speed plus what my wife is calling "Covid Brain" is probably causing the increase in fatalities. We see people driving on the local roads and interstates that just seem a bit off. When we are out, we observe people driving both above and below the speed limit by quite a bit, folks can't stay in their lane which is a mild problem on 75 but a touch more exciting when they are coming at you on a side road. Since we've noticed we really focus to make sure we aren't part of the problem or a statistic.

 

[Cortez88]

The excess speed plus what my wife is calling "Covid Brain" is probably causing the increase in fatalities. We see people driving on the local roads and interstates that just seem a bit off. When we are out, we observe people driving both above and below the speed limit by quite a bit, folks can't stay in their lane which is a mild problem on 75 but a touch more exciting when they are coming at you on a side road. Since we've noticed we really focus to make sure we aren't part of the problem or a statistic.

I’ll admit that the lack of time behind the wheel these last five months has made me a worse driver. I’ve caught myself doing some bonehead moves.

 

[NPT]

That's a good bit of investigative journalism, although a complaint could be made that it is lacking in one area (and this is the difference between actual research and journalism): it doesn't really examine the possibility that the 40,000 or so excess deaths that can't be explained might have been caused by something else. It assumes that they were caused by Covid. What if they were caused by our response to Covid? Or something unrelated?

For the record, I doubt any of that is actually true. Most likely, our Covid death count is too low. I'm just throwing that out there for pedantry's sake.

Well I have read that there was gonna be excess deaths not related to COVID because people were putting off going to doctors. I've read several articles like this pointing out what you said...our response to Covid.

 

[Cortez88]

Well I have read that there was gonna be excess deaths not related to COVID because people were putting off going to doctors. I've read several articles like this pointing out what you said...our response to Covid.

I have to think this is true. Especially early on, people who should have went to the hospital avoided going. It likely means that the Covid death undercount is a little less than the raw numbers show.

 

[jet812]

That's a good bit of investigative journalism, although a complaint could be made that it is lacking in one area (and this is the difference between actual research and journalism): it doesn't really examine the possibility that the 40,000 or so excess deaths that can't be explained might have been caused by something else. It assumes that they were caused by Covid. What if they were caused by our response to Covid? Or something unrelated?

For the record, I doubt any of that is actually true. Most likely, our Covid death count is too low. I'm just throwing that out there for pedantry's sake.

Based on the amount of protests, riots, & general outrage, police brutality probably accounts for the other 40,000...

 

[NPT]

I have to think this is true. Especially early on, people who should have went to the hospital avoided going. It likely means that the Covid death undercount is a little less than the raw numbers show.

They count anyone that's had it as a COVID death seems like. My oldest sibling died the last day of June.... she had the virus back in March/early April but it she was find after that and tested negative. She was in a nursing home and fell and broke her hip and never really got over that but on the death certificate it list COVID as the top cause of death.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Based on the amount of protests, riots, & general outrage, police brutality probably accounts for the other 40,000...

drug overdose deaths are up and what i find really odd is that in many states car crash deaths are up.

 

[Cortez88]

They count anyone that's had it as a COVID death seems like. My oldest sibling died the last day of June.... she had the virus back in March/early April but it she was find after that and tested negative. She was in a nursing home and fell and broke her hip and never really got over that but on the death certificate it list COVID as the top cause of death.

On the flip side, I heard the former Florida DOH analyst on a podcast recently. She said that many southern states are undercounting Covid deaths because they are not counting presumed Covid deaths. These are the ones where doctors are sure the patient has Covid but there is no positive test. I’ve also heard this from a few doctor friends of mine.

 

[jet812]

drug overdose deaths are up and what i find really odd is that in many states car crash deaths are up.

It’s the police...

 

[NPT]

On the flip side, I heard the former Florida DOH analyst on a podcast recently. She said that many southern states are undercounting Covid deaths because they are not counting presumed Covid deaths. These are the ones where doctors are sure the patient has Covid but there is no positive test. I’ve also heard this from a few doctor friends of mine.

I've also read the doctors are pressured by hospitals to put Covid as cause of death because they get more money from Medicare. You and I both know that if more money is involved they'll do about anything to get it. However, I am sure not one to think it's not serious.... we try to be as careful as possible but do take calculated chances. We'll be visiting our 4 month old granddaughter next month and I sure don't want to take it to her.

 

[Cortez88]

I've also read the doctors are pressured by hospitals to put Covid as cause of death because they get more money from Medicare. You and I both know that if more money is involved they'll do about anything to get it. However, I am sure not one to think it's not serious.... we try to be as careful as possible but do take calculated chances. We'll be visiting our 4 month old granddaughter next month and I sure don't want to take it to her.

I think all this gets us back to the point of the article - the US has had 200,000 more deaths than on average for the period March-August. With about 160,000 be designated Covid, we likely have an undercount of Covid deaths.

 

[hoosboot]

They count anyone that's had it as a COVID death seems like. My oldest sibling died the last day of June.... she had the virus back in March/early April but it she was find after that and tested negative. She was in a nursing home and fell and broke her hip and never really got over that but on the death certificate it list COVID as the top cause of death.

Sorry about your sibling, NPT. I'm sure it had to be incredibly tough for her to be in a nursing home and for you to be able to say goodbye amidst all of this. That's one of the most awful aspects for me.

That said, we have over 200,000 EXCESS deaths this year according to the CDC. Maybe you know about some other huge factor that is causing all of those extra people to die this year, but most signs point to one obvious one.

 

[The Vid]

For me after 100K or so the data becomes semantics and trying to make a point about anecdotal anomalies seems foolish and just plain sad. Even if the margin of error on data is a ridiculously high 25%, our response is disgraceful. Zero chance 25% of the count is wrong.

Our country is truly f’ed regardless of who gets elected.

 

[NPT]

Sorry about your sibling, NPT. I'm sure it had to be incredibly tough for her to be in a nursing home and for you to be able to say goodbye amidst all of this. That's one of the most awful aspects for me.

That said, we have over 200,000 EXCESS deaths this year according to the CDC. Maybe you know about some other huge factor that is causing all of those extra people to die this year, but most signs point to one obvious one.

I have no doubt that a lot of the excess deaths are Covid related but agree with goat's question about some being related to our response to the virus. Like I said in my previous reply I've read several articles about doctors being concerned about more deaths because people don't want to go to the doctor for other things because of the virus. I haven't done any checking at all but I'd like to know if gun deaths are up because people have been stuck at home and not being able to socialize like they normally do.

 

[NPT]

I think all this gets us back to the point of the article - the US has had 200,000 more deaths than on average for the period March-August. With about 160,000 be designated Covid, we likely have an undercount of Covid deaths.

I've often wondered how good the count is because from what I've read if you were to die in a car wreck and they test and you had the virus then the cause of death would be listed as Covid. Of course there's the other side where people die from the virus and no test is ever done and they don't list the virus as the cause of death.

Things like this make me wonder how accurate it is.

 

[Cortez88]

I've often wondered how good the count is because from what I've read if you were to die in a car wreck and they test and you had the virus then the cause of death would be listed as Covid. Of course there's the other side where people die from the virus and no test is ever done and they don't list the virus as the cause of death.

Things like this make me wonder how accurate it is.

The count of dead people is probably pretty spot on. That’s why excess deaths is the best method.

 

[hoosboot]

The count of dead people is probably pretty spot on. That’s why excess deaths is the best method.

Yeah, but I've heard that dragons swoop down out of the sky and eat a person whole and if the person had Covid then that is listed as the cause of death instead of the dragon.

 

[TommyCracker]

And isn't it the county coroner that legally marks the cause of death?

Not saying there aren't some corrupt coroner's but, are they organized across the country to mark fake cause of deaths because it's an election year?

Also hospitals get more assistance if they have a Covid case....the death has nothing to do with it.

I mean, again what would be the point of giving hospitals money for dead patients?