Interesting perspective and insights.
https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/...=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si&jwsource=cl
https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/...=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si&jwsource=cl
SI Article on NCAA Football and COVID-19
- Thread starter dpowellx4
- Start date
The problem right now is everything is driven by predictions and we are seeing results that are far underneath what was anticipated. That doesn't mean this virus isn't deadly just that we are looking at the reality of this virus yet. CDC's focus is the virus and impact it could have but only that not any other aspect that impacts the control of this virus.
Wanting to wait for a vaccine before returning to a more normal level of our society isn't a serious position from my point of view. We haven't shut down society for other infectious diseases despite more dying from the flu every year. Instead I hope a measured return is taken that keeps high risk individuals isolated from large groups and allowing those that choose to reenter society to do so if they are not ill.
I think we will find out people don't want to continue the isolation and will come back to activities they enjoy. We need to see a measured return because people are really being hurt by this isolation and no jobs to go to. I am hearing rumbles in my small town of people only going to wait another week or two at the most before deciding to go back to their lives once again.
This isn't a simple problem for our country to deal with but we can't just isolate forever due to fear of the projections that don't come true.
Wanting to wait for a vaccine before returning to a more normal level of our society isn't a serious position from my point of view. We haven't shut down society for other infectious diseases despite more dying from the flu every year. Instead I hope a measured return is taken that keeps high risk individuals isolated from large groups and allowing those that choose to reenter society to do so if they are not ill.
I think we will find out people don't want to continue the isolation and will come back to activities they enjoy. We need to see a measured return because people are really being hurt by this isolation and no jobs to go to. I am hearing rumbles in my small town of people only going to wait another week or two at the most before deciding to go back to their lives once again.
This isn't a simple problem for our country to deal with but we can't just isolate forever due to fear of the projections that don't come true.
Interesting but also discouraging. Things are going to have to change greatly in order for there to be even a shot of having a season. The good news is, they can change greatly between now & then. It's only April 8th, a lot can & will happen between now & the summer, hopefully good things will happen in droves. I suspect strongly that after a couple months of long, hot days, the virus will have a much harder time transmitting, plus so many people will have been through the process by that time, that things will look a lot better, but will it be better enough to play football? We'll see what happens.
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That is Boris Johnson’s herd strategy. And look where it’s gotten him. How big is the jail in your small town?
"We haven't shut down society for other infectious diseases despite more dying from the flu every year."
COVID-19 has claimed more Hoosier lives than flu
https://www.hoosiertimes.com/herald...cle_d2d39cda-790e-11ea-94b4-d75836abdc10.html
COVID-19 has claimed more Hoosier lives than flu
https://www.hoosiertimes.com/herald...cle_d2d39cda-790e-11ea-94b4-d75836abdc10.html
Preface; I have no brilliant answer.
I do wonder, not at all saying this is correct, what if.
If you are high risk (age, prior lung disease, heart disease, anything that our experts think makes you high risk) I agree, stay at home. Have a friend get your groceries and drop them on your front porch. Wipe off every can and box, etc. before bringing them into the house. Super cautious.
But those that are not high risk, should we go back to normal? Allow a return of hourly workers to a job? Go out to eat, shop, spend money?
I am day 14 of self-isolation, no symptoms, but my stamina is already wanting to invite my friends over.
No idea what is right.
I do wonder, not at all saying this is correct, what if.
If you are high risk (age, prior lung disease, heart disease, anything that our experts think makes you high risk) I agree, stay at home. Have a friend get your groceries and drop them on your front porch. Wipe off every can and box, etc. before bringing them into the house. Super cautious.
But those that are not high risk, should we go back to normal? Allow a return of hourly workers to a job? Go out to eat, shop, spend money?
I am day 14 of self-isolation, no symptoms, but my stamina is already wanting to invite my friends over.
No idea what is right.
Otherwise healthy nurses and doctors are dying from this, that's one thing that makes it different from the seasonal flu.
If we lose the nurses and doctors, we lose the healthcare system, if that breaks down you're looking at a mortality rate in the millions versus just the hundreds of thousands...
I saw a still shot on TV from an Intensive Care Unit that had 4 nurses holding up a cardboard sign that said: We are Here for You Please stay home for us
If we as a society can't or won't do something that simple to support those who are laying it all on the line for us we pretty much deserve the results in my opinion...
If we lose the nurses and doctors, we lose the healthcare system, if that breaks down you're looking at a mortality rate in the millions versus just the hundreds of thousands...
I saw a still shot on TV from an Intensive Care Unit that had 4 nurses holding up a cardboard sign that said: We are Here for You Please stay home for us
If we as a society can't or won't do something that simple to support those who are laying it all on the line for us we pretty much deserve the results in my opinion...
It's been less than a month that covid has ruled the u.s. To project nearly 5 months from now what it's going to be like is impossible.
That isn't the herd strategy if you could understand what I wrote. You put Johnson down and ignore that England has greatly reduced what was predicted for them. Maybe we should look at solutions other than what the worse case scenario suggest we do. I know from your postings you only want the toughest actions but I say that they can do more harm than the virus itself.
It's crazy that shutting down society and beating short term projections and saving lives is viewed as an endorsement for going back to normal and not an endorsement for staying the course. It seriously feels like the fewer people that end up dying now will sadly lead to more people dying later. This thing is a hurricane and we can't afford to confuse the eye with the end of the storm.
I sincerely hope the season gets played. But I equally sincerely hope restrictions are put in place and public activity is self-regulated to avoid breakouts in the fall.
I'm quite fond of my dad, so I'm certainly not going to any Colts, Pacers, or Hoosiers games until a vaccine is available. I'm going to live my life and I'm not going to live it in fear, but I'm also more than happy to limit my social life for my personal & family protection. I can live 8 months without Broad Ripple.
I'm quite fond of my dad, so I'm certainly not going to any Colts, Pacers, or Hoosiers games until a vaccine is available. I'm going to live my life and I'm not going to live it in fear, but I'm also more than happy to limit my social life for my personal & family protection. I can live 8 months without Broad Ripple.
Well said. My hope is that we can find ways in a couple of weeks to get small businesses back in operation with some creative and sound distancing guidelines. I don't see the harm in dropping off my car at my local mechanic for an oil change or tire rotation if that transaction can take place without me and my service tech interacting face-to-face.
Perhaps by the end of May we can have enough of a handle on this for healthy people to start gathering in groups again. That would be fantastic. The best news would be the rapid development and deployment of an inexpensive and quick test.
If we wait for a vaccine, it might be a long time. We're still waiting on a vaccine for the SARS and H1N1 outbreaks from the early 2000s.
One of the posters stated that tough actions can be worst than the virus itself. What exactly is worst than possible death from a disease as opposed to the temporary loss of our normal way of life. The obvious job and income loss that is making things so difficult for so many people is a huge negative and I truly hurt for the stress they are experiencing that I as a retiree am not. But somehow millions of people, including my parents, survived the great depression in the 1930's that reached worst unemployment levels than presently experienced and so will we again.
My son is a doctor who has been re-assigned as back-up at a local hospital here in Indianapolis treating Covid 19 patients and who last night served on a 7pm to 7am shift. He texted me this morning to let me know he was alright and I am going to add this quote from his text. "The place is spilling over with intubated Covid patients. I have no question that without social distancing the system would be overwhelmed. I'm pooped and will call you later Dad".
I ask those who think the steps taken so far to be exaggerated and un-necessary consider what the possibilities might have been without separation and closing down of our businesses. I guess we never know for sure but that is the other side of the coin. May you all stay safe.
My son is a doctor who has been re-assigned as back-up at a local hospital here in Indianapolis treating Covid 19 patients and who last night served on a 7pm to 7am shift. He texted me this morning to let me know he was alright and I am going to add this quote from his text. "The place is spilling over with intubated Covid patients. I have no question that without social distancing the system would be overwhelmed. I'm pooped and will call you later Dad".
I ask those who think the steps taken so far to be exaggerated and un-necessary consider what the possibilities might have been without separation and closing down of our businesses. I guess we never know for sure but that is the other side of the coin. May you all stay safe.
Walkerman, I hope your son and his colleagues stay well as they are truly on the front line.
You ask how could shutting down the economy could be worse for people than the virus you have to read first hand accounts during the great depression and past bad recessions. People died many by their own hands because of the lack of hope. Mental health gets damaged by no work and stress from impending doom. As people are told that this needs to continue without any real end in place many get more desperate with stresses in families, more abuse in families happen, alcohol and drug abuse increases, etc.
I worry that we are not having enough discussions about the impact of the shut down on people, only looking at the impact of the virus isolated from what hospitals see on a daily basis with pneumonia, heart attacks, flu, and other life ending reasons. The virus is bad but how bad compared to other issues we deal with? Only looking at all factors and not diminishing problems other than this virus will help us come up with the right strategy.
This disease kills diabetics and the obese.
Just about everyone else does pretty well.
I had it and it was less than a normal flu.
My doctor gave me the drug cocktail of Hydroxychloroquine, Z Pack, and Zinc.
I tested negative on the 5th day of taking the cocktail.
And have been negative since, another 6 days.
Just about everyone else does pretty well.
I had it and it was less than a normal flu.
My doctor gave me the drug cocktail of Hydroxychloroquine, Z Pack, and Zinc.
I tested negative on the 5th day of taking the cocktail.
And have been negative since, another 6 days.
It's awesome to hear that you recovered so well and I mean that very sincerely! But you do realize that the "diabetic and obese" are loved ones, too, and that, without quarantining, you could have killed someone? Again, I'm very happy you're ok! Count yourself lucky and hope that you didn't cross paths with a vulnerable person when you were asymptomatic.
Glad to hear you beat the virus and the drug cocktail worked for you and others, stay healthy.
This is how we will beat this virus. When enough people go through it and become immune so there are fewer people to pass it on to. I am hoping that a lot of people are in that position, having mild effects and not even knowing they have had the virus. I feel that I may be in that position as I had the super virus shot last fall but came down with a mild flu anyway in mid February. Took me a couple weeks to fully kick it but it never got bad enough to go to the doctor. Now as I read about all the symptoms it sounds like it matches. It would be great if they came up with a test to understand how much has already been around in the population.
There is an anti-body test that you're talking about. But it's not being rolled out with any scale right now. The antibody test would CERTAINLY be the best way to get people back to work without anxiety of what they could catch and/or spread.
I'm happy for you that you were/are in good health and were blessed to have received the best currently known course of treatment in a timely manner... Not everyone out there is so fortunate...
I can assure you that it doesn't just kill the diabetic and the obese (although it does kill them in much higher numbers)...
I'm fairly certain that you didn't mean to make it sound like this but your post sounds like: "I've got mine, screw everyone else, I'm ready to get back out there, this things not That big a deal..."
For Anyone who has a family member health care worker in contact daily with COVID19 patients or has a loved one over the age of 60* I can tell you that they understand that this IS a Big Deal..., and they hope that the the rest of the population grasps the concept...
*((and there have been many younger than 60 who have died from COVID19))
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There could be a season Without many fans in the stands or even without any at all. If they can get that at a minimum, then tv revenues could still flow. The issue is safety period. If we can test in preseason practice, the whole staff and team that would be mandatory. It then becomes a test in seeing if during these practices any player or staff member gets it after being tested during pre season. If we are seeing within the practice players getting it and if any die then it shuts it all down period. We will have to keep players and staff somewhat isolated during preseason to see if this works.
It can work and it’s a long way out but testing is a must almost weekly for all players and staff moving forward.
It can work and it’s a long way out but testing is a must almost weekly for all players and staff moving forward.
Personally, as much as I would love to see football this fall for a distraction from dealing with this Pandemic if nothing else, I'm not willing to going along with even the slight chance of having a member of the Team or Staff (or their family) becoming ill and possibly even losing their lives simply for my entertainment...
If they don't have a viable vaccine by whatever time frame you would need to play at least 8 games I say shut it down (and that's coming from a fan who Really wants to watch some football)...
If they don't have a viable vaccine by whatever time frame you would need to play at least 8 games I say shut it down (and that's coming from a fan who Really wants to watch some football)...
Here's the thing about this virus.... We don't know if you can catch it a second time. I've heard reports that people that got it caught it a second time. Do I believe them all? I don't know. But it's way to early to know anything about this thing to know if it can be caught a second time or not.
Anyone that thinks they're safe because they caught it once is playing with fire in my eyes.
Anyone that thinks they're safe because they caught it once is playing with fire in my eyes.
Thank you for your comment about a loved one in contact with COVID 19 understands that this is a big deal. Those with someone in healthcare are the ones who are also hearing first hand what is actually happening in hospitals treating these patients and also that problems procuring masks, gowns and testing is real. You and your family stay safe
I keep getting the impression that many civilians outside the medical community seem to see this as sort of a Super Flu that will just take the already vulnerable, blow through and disappear..., and we'll all move on and forget about it...
For starters it's at least 6 times more deadly than the Flu (at least by state of Indiana numbers) and it's appears to be several times more infectious (in my opinion)...
It does kill otherwise healthy people who aren't able to get the right course of medical care in a timely manner...
In my opinion, based on everything I've read, watched and heard (from my family members on the front line line) we are going to be dealing with this scourge all across society until we get a viable vaccine...
***((just minutes ago, COVID19 was reported to have become the leading cause of death in the United States [4/10/20] ))
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V13 I have always enjoyed your posts on football and the insight you bring to others. But I strongly disagree with your views that this virus is not as bad as the damage caused with our economy at a standstill. The virus has killed close to 16,000 people in the last two months and cannot be compared with natural cause deaths. There will be suicides and mental issues from the economy problems but there are treatments available for those issues. This virus is highly contagious, has no vaccine, has no treatment, and has no cure at this time. I want this to end like everyone else and resume my normal life but the social distancing is beginning to work. Lets stay the course a little longer than we want too. I wish you well
Technically that's not true but yet hard to prove. The amount of patients that ONLY DIE of the FLU is much greater than patients that have ONLY DIED of COVID 19. The vast vast majority of COVID 19 deaths have had serious underlying health conditions. That much has been proven, but it's anyone's guess of how long those patients would have lived had they not gotten COVID 19. The raw data is hard to decipher since if you have COVID 19 and you pass away, it's automatically determined that the virus killed you. Doesn't matter is you already had stage 4 cancer and was given 3 months to live, if you have the virus that's your cause of death. That is not how they determine flu deaths. If you have an underlying condition and you just happen to have the flu when you pass away, the underlying condition is listed as the cause of death. There really isn't an easy way to compare flu to COVID 19 deaths because of those factors. However I will say that COVID 19 is much worse than the flu in every possible way and precautions should be taken as seriously as you possibly can.
I look at this situation as a risk management one. We kill in this country 40,000 people every year in traffic accidents. How do we keep it that low? We require education and licensing for drivers. We have extensive laws that are enforced, etc. but we do not end out way of life over it. We manage it and continue on with life, living with that risk every single time we go out on the roads.
Now this virus is bad. And the risks are pretty high that people will die from it. But why are we willing to shut down our entire way of life for it? We should be figuring out the ways to manage that risk while still giving people a way to feed their kids just like we do with driving. We can go to work with masks and gloves, keep 6 feet between tables in restaurants, or what ever else they come up with to keep us from starving our own population. Then we will just live with the risk as we do with the rest of life.
There is a reason the call our economy our “way of life” because it is and we are destroying it.
The only area I would disagree with you is that there is no treatment as several antiviral medication have shown results based on European results and doctors that have used the medications off label in this country. I think having a good treatment is enough to get things going once again. I don't think this will happen within days but over the next several months can make returning to a more normal situation feasible.
Yeah and an article I read from Johns Hopkins said they believe the people that caught it a second time was because of relapse rather than catching it again from a different source.
If 16,000 people died in 30 days from traffic accidents, you'd better believe the government would start asking questions. The rub with comparing apples to oranges (i.e., car accidents to disease) is what would be the expected response. For car accidents, the data might point to new legislation/regulation on mandatory seat belts, air bags, or drunk driving laws (I reference those because they've been a thing in the past when it comes to improving vehicle safety). At the least, the government requires crash testing.
On a very serious note. We've seen hundreds of thousands of cases and like 18,000 deaths to date from a virus where, as a country, we've taken extreme efforts to combat spread. Who knows what the spread would've been with that the distancing protocols, but with our event-centric culture I can only imagine what the spread/deaths would've been if March Madness, concerts, nightlife, Spring Break, etc. were all going in full effect.
To be fair, and I'm not one to agree with the President often, but there DOES have to be a balance between loss of life from a disease and loss of life from efforts to mitigate the disease. The rub, and the reason that people get elected to positions of power, is that they have to decide when the curves of "disease-loss" and "economic-loss" meet and keep the "net loss" as close to that point as possible.
Yeah, well my point was that we need to make the effort to manage this thing like we do for other hi risk situations. In that respect it is not apples and oranges. Let’s put effort that way and we can perhaps survive in tact.
That's a positive thought but viable courses of treatment don't address the large number of asymptotic carriers roaming around out there...
By opening things up too early you may well be simply be hastening the 2nd round of COVID19 and accidentally giving a large portion of the population a death sentence when they otherwise might have survived this with another month of mitigation, coupled with max testing...
I always thought Easter was a pie in the sky, wishful thinking, artificial deadline (and said so somewhere on here) and I feel the same way about May 1st...
In my opinion, until we have a body of data that shows where the asymptotic carriers are (gained by max testing)..., then all we are doing by opening things up based on a "happy face" artificial deadline is dooming a large segment of our population to a horrible death...
This isn't a guy who has Trump Derangement Syndrome talking either. I'm rooting for him to succeed but that doesn't mean that I don't think he's wrong about May 1st...
It is quite sobering to think twice as many people who have died will not quite reach the current estimate of fatalities. If that number is reached I do not think football can be played in late August
June 1st is the more likely timeline. It's really the best long term strategy, including economically. So much productivity is lost in the "transition".... it's not worth the risk to start too early and then have to do it again. Let the govt money flow for another month and then try to get restarted.
