Should they stay or should they go with May deal or go with no deal ? Let the people decide--Brexit.

[sglowrider]

Desperation time can lead to extreme stupidity.

The Brits need to accept the fact that its impossible to leave the EU unless they face some dire consequences. Schrodinger's cat?

Its either a No-Deal (and suffer the chaos and the dire financial consequences for the next five years) or basically they will need to stay in the EU. That's the reality.

For some, the idea of 'independence' is pure nostalgic fantasy -- and swallow their nationalistic pride needs to stay that way.

The reality and bottom-line are that its impossible to leave the EU unless they are willing to burn the whole house down.

 

[iuwclurker]

View embedded media

Desperation time can lead to extreme stupidity.

The Brits need to accept the fact that its impossible to leave the EU unless they face some dire consequences. Schrodinger's cat?

Its either a No-Deal (and suffer the chaos and the dire financial consequences for the next five years) or basically they will need to stay in the EU. That's the reality.

For some, the idea of 'independence' is pure nostalgic fantasy -- and swallow their nationalistic pride needs to stay that way.

The reality and bottom-line are that its impossible to leave the EU unless they are willing to burn the whole house down.

The future is one nation, one earth. Going in the opposite direction is ignorant.

 

[sglowrider]

Londonderry bomb: Four arrests over 'reckless' attack

 

[sglowrider]

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum
Proposed amendment is significant shift in policy towards people’s vote on Brexit

Labour has said the Commons should be able to vote on whether to hold a second referendum in an amendment the party submitted on Monday night to Theresa May’s Brexit update.

It is the first time the party has asked MPs to formally consider a second poll, although the carefully worded compromise amendment did not commit the party’s leadership to backing a referendum if such a vote were to take place.

If this happens it will be the choice between a No-Deal Brexit or Remain/revoke Article 50.

But either way, the political landscape of the UK has been changed. People who were Leavers and supported Labour for generations may flip to UKIP or Tories. Other folks who supported the Tories may vote UKIP or Labour.
A battle between the (jingoistic) 'British Spirit' versus the experts who predict an economic disaster of a No-Deal Brexit.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum
Proposed amendment is significant shift in policy towards people’s vote on Brexit



If this happens it will be the choice between a No-Deal Brexit or Remain/revoke Article 50.

But either way, the political landscape of the UK has been changed. People who were Leavers and supported Labour for generations may flip to UKIP or Tories. Other folks who supported the Tories may vote UKIP or Labour.
A battle between the (jingoistic) 'British Spirit' versus the experts who predict an economic disaster of a No-Deal Brexit.

And yet, what kind of political signal does it send when Parliament couldn't decide on a Brexit, put the vote to people and when Brexit passed via referendum, 80% of the MPs explicitly stated that they would abide by the people's vote. A no Brexit (I mean ever) and new referendum just undermines the entire political system, which already has plenty of flaws of its own.

 

[sglowrider]

And yet, what kind of political signal does it send when Parliament couldn't decide on a Brexit, put the vote to people and when Brexit passed via referendum, 80% of the MPs explicitly stated that they would abide by the people's vote. A no Brexit (I mean ever) and new referendum just undermines the entire political system, which already has plenty of flaws of its own.

Undermining the political system isnt new to western democracy. Having to blindly go into a No-Deal Brexit would be even worse. Political decisions there are so pretzelised now in term of choices that its impossible to blow something up with any compromise of any the red-lines. Literally.

The situation in the US is child's play compared to Brexit.

Putin must be having a whale of a time.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Undermining the political system isnt new to western democracy. Having to blindly go into a No-Deal Brexit would be even worse. Political decisions there are so pretzelised now in term of choices that its impossible to blow something up with any compromise of any the red-lines. Literally.

The situation in the US is child's play compared to Brexit.

Putin must be having a whale of a time.

Nobody wants a no deal Brexit, but no one in parliament has shown any willingness to compromise. March 29th really isn't that far away

 

[sglowrider]

Nobody wants a no deal Brexit, but no one in parliament has shown any willingness to compromise. March 29th really isn't that far away

A lot of Brexiteers don't mind a No-Deal. They think the ol' British bulldog spirit will get them through as they did for WW2.

Jingoistic/nationalism, populism are the themes on themes on both sides of the pond. Nobody believes the economists who unanimously said there will be a GDP shrinkage of huge proportions -- but instead, cite some obscure economist who makes positive projections based on false assumptions.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

A lot of Brexiteers don't mind a No-Deal. They think the ol' British bulldog spirit will get them through as they did for WW2.

Jingoistic/nationalism, populism are the themes on themes on both sides of the pond. Nobody believes the economists who unanimously said there will be a GDP shrinkage of huge proportions -- but instead, cite some obscure economist who makes positive projections based on false assumptions.

There will always be stupid citizens, but according to the British faction in Davos this past week, the large majority want a deal. The same way there are probably some butthurt Europeans that want a hard Brexit because the damage to the EU is anticipated to be less than to the UK, but most sane politicians will accept a delay in order to enact a plan.

 

[sglowrider]

There will always be stupid citizens, but according to the British faction in Davos this past week, the large majority want a deal. The same way there are probably some butthurt Europeans that want a hard Brexit because the damage to the EU is anticipated to be less than to the UK, but most sane politicians will accept a delay in order to enact a plan.

Its almost impossible to make a deal. The red lines are too deep to cross. You dont blame the Europeans -- they have to draw the line between damaging the union and the no-man's land that the Brexiteers want.

No European leaders want a No-Deal Brexit. Its way too disruptive.

I really dont know why you are so anti-EU or Europeans. As an organisation, they have been on the balance brought more good than any bureaucratic negatives. Peace and prosperity versus any wars since.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Its almost impossible to make a deal. The red lines are too deep to cross. You dont blame the Europeans -- they have to draw the line between damaging the union and the no-man's land that the Brexiteers want.

No European leaders want a No-Deal Brexit. Its way too disruptive.

I really dont know why you are so anti-EU or Europeans. As an organisation, they have been on the balance brought more good than any bureaucratic negatives. Peace and prosperity versus any wars since.

Because the concept is flawed and illogical. And obviously nobody wants a no-deal Brexit b/c it will push the UK into a depression and the EU into a recession, if not worse.

 

[sglowrider]

EU would rather no-deal Brexit than abandon Irish backstop, Theresa May told
Prime minister also warned that renegotiation would backfire on UK – by reopening controversies over Gibraltar, fishing and the Brexit 'divorce bill'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...et-eu-negotiations-vote-commons-a8753666.html

Theresa May has been warned the EU will settle for a no-deal Brexit rather than abandon the Irish backstop, as Brussels ramped up its refusal to reopen talks.

A senior MEP, serving on the European Parliament's Brexit Steering Group, said the prime minister’s plea to rip up the existing agreement would be rejected – because a no-deal outcome was “the lesser evil”.

“There will be a price to pay, but the calculus that is being made on this side of the Channel is that the cost of hurting the integrity of the single market will be significantly bigger,” said Philippe Lamberts.

If life was only as simple as the Brexiteers had led everyone to believe it would be.

I have always believed that the NI/Ireland border issue would always be the biggest stumbling block. Now, with like eight weeks to go, they still have not sorted it out, after 2 years.
Perceived 'freedom' or the potential of The Troubles II starting up again.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Brexit was a Russian pushed idea, so it probably was never going to be in Britain or the EU's best interest. Just as it turns out one of the leaders of Calexit has Russian ties and is an arch conservative.

The conservative movement has been played by the Russians, see Russian donations to the NRA as another example to go with Calexit, Trump support, and Brexit. It is interesting what strange bedfellows modern politics makes.

On edit, let me add both extremes are being played since CA targets progressives.

 

[iuwclurker]

EU would rather no-deal Brexit than abandon Irish backstop, Theresa May told
Prime minister also warned that renegotiation would backfire on UK – by reopening controversies over Gibraltar, fishing and the Brexit 'divorce bill'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...et-eu-negotiations-vote-commons-a8753666.html



If life was only as simple as the Brexiteers had led everyone to believe it would be.

I have always believed that the NI/Ireland border issue would always be the biggest stumbling block. Now, with like eight weeks to go, they still have not sorted it out, after 2 years.
Perceived 'freedom' or the potential of The Troubles II starting up again.

The Brittles need to call a new referendum. End this idiocy.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Brexit was a Russian pushed idea, so it probably was never going to be in Britain or the EU's best interest. Just as it turns out one of the leaders of Calexit has Russian ties and is an arch conservative.

The conservative movement has been played by the Russians, see Russian donations to the NRA as another example to go with Calexit, Trump support, and Brexit. It is interesting what strange bedfellows modern politics makes.

On edit, let me add both extremes are being played since CA targets progressives.

From CNBC:

"Calexit is left — we are progressive, and that's why we don't like Trump," said Marcus Ruiz Evans, one of the leaders of the Yes California campaign seeking California independence. "But there are some very hardcore Republican concepts to Calexit, including the group saying don't waste our tax money."

Evans said the group's membership has risen by "about four times" to roughly 44,000 members since the election of President Donald Trump.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

From CNBC:

"Calexit is left — we are progressive, and that's why we don't like Trump," said Marcus Ruiz Evans, one of the leaders of the Yes California campaign seeking California independence. "But there are some very hardcore Republican concepts to Calexit, including the group saying don't waste our tax money."

Evans said the group's membership has risen by "about four times" to roughly 44,000 members since the election of President Donald Trump.

Right, but if you read my link it has this:

After a Manhattan billionaire led a wave of working-class discontent to the White House, perhaps it’s fitting that the two men steering a left-leaning movement to get California out of Donald Trump’s America lack liberal bona fides. Louis Marinelli and Marcus Evans were both registered Republicans two years ago when they formed what is now known as Yes California, a homegrown separatist movement. At the time, the 30-year-old Marinelli, who grew up in upstate New York, had spent more years living in Russia than the Golden State.

And Evans, 39, briefly hosted conservative talk radio shows in his native Fresno. In an interview this past week, Evans wouldn’t say if he voted for Trump, but he insisted that he doesn’t fit the bill of a right-wing radio blowhard.
​

Calexit seems to appeal to progressives but the leaders are conservative. I wonder, what would it mean to the GOP if California left the US?

 

[iuwclurker]

The Brittles need to call a new referendum. End this idiocy.

Brittles
whittles
witless

 

[sglowrider]

 

[sglowrider]

Brexit deadlock shows 'democracy all but dead' - Donald Trump Jr

The current deadlock over Brexit and possible delay to the UK's planned leaving date of 29 March suggests democracy in the UK is "all but dead", Donald Trump Jr has claimed.
Mr Trump Jr, who is the US president's son but holds no political position, wrote a column in the Daily Telegraph.
In it, he criticises PM Theresa May for having "ignored advice from my father".
Mr Trump Jr added that "the will of the people is likely to be ignored" because of "elite" politicians in Brussels.

This advice is coming from a guy who shut down the government for how long (?) just because of a political symbol!! Plus he didn't even know what Brexit was and later claimed that he predicted the outcome within minutes of the results of the Referendum.

They have fantastic mirrors in the Trump households.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

EU grants short extension - with a catch.

If UK lawmakers approve a deal next week, they have until May 22 to implement it. If they reject the deal, UK crashes out on April 12.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...exit-delay-won-t-leave-european-union-n986106

 

[sglowrider]

EU grants short extension - with a catch.

If UK lawmakers approve a deal next week, they have until May 22 to implement it. If they reject the deal, UK crashes out on April 12.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...exit-delay-won-t-leave-european-union-n986106

They are playing a high stakes chicken race. (David Cameron can't show his face around the UK for the next few decades now. Stay in exile like Blair)
Its exciting times in the UK; things are so dynamic and fluid that the news and its implications can change by the hour. (If you are interested, you can listen to LBC or BBC 5)

I am starting to think that a No Deal exit is a 50% likely scenario now. May had pissed off half her party MPs and then some in her last press conference so I am not sure how many would tuck their tails in and vote for her latest concoction next week.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

They are playing a high stakes chicken race. (David Cameron can't show his face around the UK for the next few decades now. Stay in exile like Blair)
Its exciting times in the UK; things are so dynamic and fluid that the news and its implications can change by the hour. (If you are interested, you can listen to LBC or BBC 5)

I am starting to think that a No Deal exit is a 50% likely scenario now. May had pissed off half her party MPs and then some in her last press conference so I am not sure how many would tuck their tails in and vote for her latest concoction next week.

I'll be surprised if the end result is anything other than a no-deal Brexit.

 

[sglowrider]

I'll be surprised if the end result is anything other than a no-deal Brexit.

The establishment, major corporations and their lobbying groups will put some major pressure on the MPs -- though everyone's positions especially the Leavers have just hardened a little bit more.


The Remainers are more likely to hope for a Norway solution (and not for a People's Vote) even when I read somewhere that Norway is slowly edging towards full membership.

The EU/Brussels is an easy target since they are some foreign, nebulous 'super-structure' and based abroad. Once they are out, they will naturally start blaming their MPs for their plight, then who next? I can see the Parliament to being back to the bad old days in the 60-70s where every election was a flip-flop of ruling parties and their policies -- and the emergences of extreme parties.

It's just amazing to me that people can be suckered into thinking about 'democracy' and 'sovereignty' at any costs. The hardcore Brexiteers are preferring a No Deal over uncertainty is somewhat like preferring death over an uncertain prognosis.

 

[sglowrider]

Brexit: What happens now?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399

 

[i'vegotwinners]

Brexit: What happens now?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399

like our elections, almost all the coverage is of the horse race, and little to none of the actual implications for different constituencies of going either way.

 

[sglowrider]

like our elections, almost all the coverage is of the horse race, and little to none of the actual implications for different constituencies of going either way.

There is but when you get down into the weeds then you need to write a whole book about it. It will change an entire nation and its culture plus we arent sure what the long term implications are for those under 30 who currently see themselves as Europeans first before being called English, Welsh or Scots.
The projected implications have all been published -- but they have been labelled as Project Fear by the Leavers.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

There is but when you get down into the weeds then you need to write a whole book about it. It will change an entire nation and its culture plus we arent sure what the long term implications are for those under 30 who currently see themselves as Europeans first before being called English, Welsh or Scots.
The projected implications have all been published -- but they have been labelled as Project Fear by the Leavers.

labeled by who?

let me guess, the stayers?

i believe the moneyed interests are fighting leaving, because they feel they control the EU more than they control the Brits, and thus will have free reign more if GB stays.

as to those young enough to have mostly known only one side of this as adults, one has to consider their take on things as much less informed, compared to those who have experienced both sides of the issue as adults far more.

as with anything, i'm guessing there will be winners and losers either way this goes.

and being published, isn't the same as getting widespread coverage.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Germany is already in an effective recession

 

[sglowrider]

labeled by who?

let me guess, the stayers?

i believe the moneyed interests are fighting leaving, because they feel they control the EU more than they control the Brits, and thus will have free reign more if GB stays.

as to those young enough to have mostly known only one side of this as adults, one has to consider their take on things as much less informed, compared to those who have experienced both sides of the issue as adults far more.

as with anything, i'm guessing there will be winners and losers either way this goes.

and being published, isn't the same as getting widespread coverage.

The leavers or the Brexiteers have labelled it Project Fear. General expectations or projections by most economists including the Bank of England's of a No deal Brexit will be a shrinkage of the economy of anything up to 10% within the next 15 years.

As for those younger than 30, its an issue of personal identity. Nothing to be scoffed at.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

The leavers or the Brexiteers have labelled it Project Fear.

As for those younger than 30, its an issue of personal identity. Nothing to be scoffed at.

General expectations or projections by most economists including the Bank of England's of a No deal Brexit will be a shrinkage of the economy of anything up to 10% within the next 15 years.

A), i highly doubt those under 30 see their personal identity as defined by GB's inclusion in the EU or not.

and those who are older and have known and experienced both sides, are much more informed than those who have largely only known one side.

B), economists find what those hiring/funding them want them to find.

 

[sglowrider]

A), i highly doubt those under 30 see their personal identity as defined by GB's inclusion in the EU or not.

and those who are older and have known and experienced both sides, are much more informed than those who have largely only known one side.

B), economists find what those hiring/funding them want them to find.

Those under 30 we born and had their formative years within the EU context. They are therefore more accepting of diversity, global perspective and see Europeans as cousins.

Point B -- et tu IGW? The death of expertise too lies within you. Its obvious that by going alone they will be screwed in trade deals.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

A), i highly doubt those under 30 see their personal identity as defined by GB's inclusion in the EU or not.

and those who are older and have known and experienced both sides, are much more informed than those who have largely only known one side.

B), economists find what those hiring/funding them want them to find.

How do you solve the Irish question? Ireland will stay in the EU, Northern Ireland will be forced out. It has been made clear any hard border will result in "the troubles" again.

Then of course there is Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to stay. Do they get another independence vote?

I liked what John Oliver pointed out, sometimes we elect people to make decisions because we have enough going on in our lives that we cannot become experts in every subject. What makes anyone think the people that voted on Brexit, for or against, really knew all the facts.

 

[sglowrider]

How do you solve the Irish question? Ireland will stay in the EU, Northern Ireland will be forced out. It has been made clear any hard border will result in "the troubles" again.

Then of course there is Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to stay. Do they get another independence vote?

I liked what John Oliver pointed out, sometimes we elect people to make decisions because we have enough going on in our lives that we cannot become experts in every subject. What makes anyone think the people that voted on Brexit, for or against, really knew all the facts.

One proposal to overcome the Backstop problem -- no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, no duty or tariffs between goods/services between the two states. But Northern Ireland needs to have customs/immigration between NI and the Mainland UK.
Its a step forward, not sure if its feasible as it basically annexes NI to Ireland -- but better than the dumbass Brexiteers who dont understand why the EU needs to have a border between NI and Ireland/EU. Typical Brussels... just being difficult!

Besides, I personally don't think Northern Ireland is ready Economically, Politically or Culturally to join a United Ireland. I think in an ideal world there needs to be a few few generations between the Troubles and any reunification.

Anyway this is the expected EU's next steps:


A presenter of Sky News said he got a message from an MP and thinks the following will happen:

• Her deal will get beaten next week
• Parliament ask for a long extension
• She resigns

 

[sglowrider]

 

[sglowrider]

 

[Marvin the Martian]

View embedded media

View embedded media

Sure looks like Boris Johnson is maneuvering himself up. I suspect he will now somehow deliver the votes needed.

 

[sglowrider]

Sure looks like Boris Johnson is manoeuvring himself up. I suspect he will now somehow deliver the votes needed.

Boris has always been wanting to be PM for over a decade now. He is a smarter, better groomed, seemingly eloquent (but in reality, similarly substantively shallow) version of Trump without the commercial/financial con-man that is central to Trump. They are technically both New Yorkers, Boris being born there too.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Boris has always been wanting to be PM for over a decade now. He is a smarter, better groomed, seemingly eloquent (but in reality, similarly substantively shallow) version of Trump without the commercial/financial con-man that is central to Trump. They are technically both New Yorkers, Boris being born there too.

I will say that Boris has played this amazingly well. All he had to do is put the UK onto a collision course with disaster. Lex Luthor could not have done better.

 

[sglowrider]

I will say that Boris has played this amazingly well. All he had to do is put the UK onto a collision course with disaster. Lex Luthor could not have done better.

People dont take him to be an intellectual heavyweight for all the buffoonish acts that he had done the past couple of decades. Then you add his many flip-flops including the possible reversal on the May's proposal.... He is politically expedient, to put it mildly.

I dont blame him for the current Brexit clusterfeck. It was David Cameron who misread the ground and decided to us a non-binding Referendum just to appease the UKIP and keep them within the Tory camp/caucus.
But the groundswell of frustrations of populism started many decades ago. I would blame Maggie for it -- causing a clear North-South divide of the nation and never ever compensating it or addressing the fault-lines.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

With all of the Brexit drama, somehow the UK is still growing slightly while Germany and Italy have fallen into recessions.

Meanwhile, the German banks are failing and need to merge, but are unable to do so unless they can raise fresh capital as part of the combination. And the E.U.'s stupid non-tiered policy is penalizing savers and not producing the results it expects in regards to growth.

What a shit show that continent is.