Scores by conference selection

[IUTerry]

This shows the order in which each conference team was taken in the draft, who took them, and how many points they got. I think it's an interesting view because it clearly shows, for example, that I screwed the pooch on Duke because there were four other ACC teams available at the time that ended up with more points.


A10
1. Xavier (Peegs) - 13
2. Dayton (Satch) - 9
3. St. Louis (RBS) - 9
4. Geo Washington (BRS) - 11
5. UMass (Tunk) – 13
6. Fordham (CJ) – 11
7. Temple (Glor) – 6
8. Charlotte (HB) – 7
9. St. Joes (Stunned) – 10
10. Rhode Island (rolo) – 10
11. Richmond (Terry) - 4

ACC
1. UNC (BRS) - 11
2. Duke (Terry) - 8
3. Maryland (CJ) - 10
4. Georgia Tech (rolo) - 8
5. Virginia Tech (Glor) - 10
6. Clemson (TBL) - 7
7. Boston Coll (JM) - 10
8. Virginia (Tunk) – 11
9. Florida St (Stunned) – 7
10. NC St (Ash) – 5
11. Wake Forest (T&T) - 5

Big10
1. Ohio State (Tunk) - 15
2. Wisconsin (Peegs) - 13
3. Illinois (T&T) - 9
4. MSU (Ash) - 8
5. Indiana (Terry) - 10
6. Purdue (Stunned) - 9
7. Penn State (rolo) – 2
8. Michigan (BRS) – 8
9. Northwestern (JM) – 2
10. Iowa (TBL) - 9

Big 12
1. Kansas (Satch) - 14
2. Texas A&M (RBS) - 13
3. Missouri (rolo) - 7
4. Texas (TBL) - 12
5. Ok State (JM) – 6
6. Oklahoma (Terry) – 6
7. Texas Tech (HB) – 9
8. Nebraska (Ash) – 6
9. Kansas St (T&T) – 10
10. Baylor (BRS) – 4
11. Iowa St (CJ) - 6

Big East
1. Pitt (rolo) - 12
2. Marquette (BRS) - 11
3. Villanova (Glor) - 10
4. UConn (Stunned) - 6
5. Syracuse (TBL) - 11
6. Notre Dame (Ash) - 11
7. Georgetown (RBS) - 13
8. Louisville (Tunk) - 12
9. Providence (JM) – 8
10. West Virginia (Terry) – 10
11. DePaul (CJ) – 9
12. Seton Hall (Peegs) - 4

Colonial
1. Hofstra (HB) - 14
2. Old Dominion (TBL) - 16
3. George Mason (Terry) - 12
4. VCU (Satch) - 19
5. Drexel (Peegs) - 14
6. Towson (CJ) – 9
7. UNCW (RBS) – 4
8. Northeastern (Glor) – 10
9. Georgia St (JM) - 6

ConfUSA
1. Memphis (Stunned) - 16
2. Tulsa (T&T) - 10
3. Houston (CJ) - 10
4. UCF (Glor) - 11
5. Rice (HB) - 9
6. SMU (Satch) - 3
7. UAB (Peegs) – 7
8. UTEP (Tunk) – 6
9. Southern Miss (BRS) - 10

Horizon
1. Butler (Ash) - 14
2. Loyola (RBS) - 11
3. UIC (HB) – 8
4. WI-Mil (Satch) – 6
5. Cleveland St (rolo) – 3
6. Wisc-GB (Peegs) – 9
7. Youngstown (Glor) – 8
8. Wright (CJ) – 15
9. Detroit (Stunned) - 6

MAC
1. Kent (Ash) - 12
2. Akron (Tunk) - 13
3. Toledo (HB) - 14
4. MiamiOH (Satch) - 10
5. Western Mich (Peegs) - 10
6. Ohio (CJ) - 10
7. Northern Ill (T&T) – 4
8. Ball St (RBS) – 5
9. Buffalo (Glor) - 4

MVC
1. Wichita (JM) - 8
2. Creighton (Terry) - 16
3. Missouri St (Satch) - 13
4. Southern Ill (Peegs) - 17
5. Bradley (Stunned) - 11
6. Northern Iowa (HB) - 9
7. Evansville (T&T) – 6
8. Illinois St (rolo) – 6
9. Drake (RBS) – 7
10. Indiana St (TBL) - 6

Mountain West
1. Air Force (Stunned) - 10
2. Sand Diego St (BRS) - 10
3. New Mexico (Ash) - 4
4. BYU (RBS) - 13
5. UNLV (Glor) – 12
6. Colorado St (JM) – 6
7. Wyoming (T&T) – 7
8. Utah (Tunk) - 6

PAC10
1. UCLA (CJ) - 15
2. Arizona (HB) - 11
3. Washington (Tunk) - 9
4. Oregon (JM) - 11
5. California (Stunned) - 7
6. USC (Terry) – 11
7. Stanford (TBL) – 10
8. Wash St (BRS) – 13
9. Ariz St (rolo) - 2

SEC
1. Florida (Glor) - 13
2. Alabama (RBS) - 7
3. LSU (JM) - 5
4. Arkansas (rolo) - 7
5. Tennessee (BRS) - 10
6. Miss (T&T) - 8
7. Kentucky (Terry) - 9
8. Miss St (TBL) – 8
9. Georgia (Ash) - 8
10. So Carolina (Satch) – 4
11. Auburn (HB) - 7

WAC
1. Nevada (TBL) - 14
2. Fresno St (T&T) - 10
3. Utah St (Tunk) - 9
4. New Mex St (Peegs) - 11
5. Hawaii (Ash) – 8
6. Boise St (Satch) – 8

At-Large
1. Gonzaga (T&T) - 13
2. Western KY (Glor) - 13
3. Marist (CJ) - 15
4. Winthrop (rolo) - 17
5. Eastern KY (BRS) – 16
6. Davidson (TBL) – 20
7. Samford (JM) – 12
8. Jackson St (Terry) – 13
9. Belmont (Peegs) - 17
10. Robert Morris (Ash) – 9
11. App St (HB) – 16
12. NWestern St (satch) – 10
13. Del St (RBS) – 17
14. Eastern Wash (Stunned) – 8
15. Rider (Tunk) - 10

 

[Satchmore]

Some observations

A10...
1. Fordham wasn't that good. They lucked out and got an easy schedule from the imbalance.
2. RI was clealy the big surprise with 10 wins. They weren't that good either. They seemingly won every game they were in.
3. Temple has gone to hell. I don't think I'll consider them until the final 2 rounds next year.

ACC
1. Only 11 wins for incredibly talented N.Car. I did correctly predict the league would be a blood bath.
2. Bad luck for Terry to pick Duke in the one season where they were mediocre.
3. Virginia seemed to come from nowhere. Leito did a miraculous job reving DePaul from the dead, and now he's done it at Virginia. As master of the obvious, I think Leito is a good coach.
4. Va Tech was a big surprise too. As long as they have those guards they'll be good. I have no idea if they'll be back next year.

Big 10
1. Iowa's revival from a horrible pre-league will be a big factor if TBL ends up winning this thing.
2. Got to give credit to Tunk for grabbing Ohio St so early. I thought they'd be good, but I didn't think they'd be this good. I guess with all the AAU ball being played nowadays, freshman don't struggle as much as they used to.
3. Ash and MSU got hosed by a tough imbalanced schedule.

Big 12
1. Kansas lucked out by getting a favorable imbalanced schedule. I'd like to boast that I picked them because I broke this down, but I didn't realize this until after I drafted them.
2. Another big break for TBL. Who predicted Durant would have been this good? If not, Texas would have been mediocre this year.
3. Like so many of JM's teams this year, OK St packed it in early. I'm thinking James-On Curry isn't as good as he should be. Anyone at Ok St calling him James-Off Curry?
4. Kansas St's quick turnaround was surpriing. With Huggins they'll be an early round pick from now on.

Big East
1. Conn's collapse was the most surprising. Leave it to luckless Stunned to catch them on a bad year.
2. L'ville rallied after looking pretty bad early in the year.
3. W.Va did a hell of a lot better job than I thought they would. I guess Beelein can coach.
4. As painful as it is, I got to breakdown those awful imbalanced Big East schedules next year. I think DePaul and Notre Dame benefitted from them this year.
5. G'town looked mediocre early. Their pre-league was no indicator of how good they'd be.

Colonial
1. I claim the title as King of the Colonial. 19 wins from VCU as a late 3rd rounder this year, 17 wins from G.Mason as a late 2nd rounder last year, and 15 wins from VCU as a late 6th rounder two years ago. I'm like an idiot savant. I suck at the roto but I can do one thing well; that's pick in the Colonial.
2. NC-Wil was curiously bad. I wonder if their new coach is awful.
3. Old Dominion is money in the bank every year.
4. N'estern wasn't supposed to be nearly this good. Other than VCU, they were the surprise if the league.

CUSA
1. I thought Memphis was a no-brainer to overwhelmingly succeed and it was true. Can't believe so many people passed on them before Stunned took them.
2. I thought Tulsa might rebound and they did.
3. Houston was a disappointment considering how weak the league was.
4. S.Miss was the biggest positive surprise. BRS is a lucky son-of-a-gun when it comes to late round picks.
5. UTEP's collapse was surprising
6. Not good opening campaigns for Mike Davis(UAB) and Matt Doherty(SMU). I guess they're both bad coaches.

Horizon
1. Butler was good but not quite as good as I thought they'd be.
2. Wright was the biggest surprise. CJ's good at late round picks but he's also lucky. There's no way he saw this coming.
3. HB and Il-Chi were undone by the sexual harrassment case.

MAC
1. Toledo proved to be a brilliant pick by HB. They took advantage of the weak half of the MAC.

2. Kent now appears to be a sure thing every year.

3. Speaking of sure things, you can never go wrong with Mia-O. Even I couldn't curse them.

4. Ball State's program has hit rock bottom.

MVC
1. Wichita's collapse was typical to what happened to JM across the board.
2. Creighton and S.Ill now have to be considered sure things.
3. I think Ind St has finished last in the MVC every year of the roto.
4. N.Iowa's collapse was notocible after looking good early.

Mtn West
1. Air Force wasn't as good as advertised. I was right about not trusting talent level of service academies.
2. BYU's return to excellence was the biggest surprise.
3. UNLV was also a hell of a bargain. A lot of us went to sleep on them.

PAC 10
1. UCLA being very good and AZ St and Or Sr being bad were the only predictable things.
2. Like seemingly all of JM's teams, Oregon struggled down the stretch.
3. Terry(USC), BRS...again!(Wa St) and TBL(Stan) got big breaks by having teams do a lot better than they were predicted.
4. Cal, Az and Was all were disappointments. They were also the teams I coveted the most in relation to my turn. Shows you the magic feel I have.

SEC
1. Alabama and LSU were major busts. Everyone of us could have been burned by them. No way to see that coming.
2. Once again I managed to pick the worst team in the SEC. This time I mean it. I'm swearing off drafting from this league. It's bad enough that I suck in it but when I see that scary stuff with LSU and Bama...
3. Vandy was the biggest surprise based off their awful pre-league.

WAC
1. Pretty neutral and predictable league this year.
2. I got frustrated with Boise because of their relatively high Sag rating and inability to win close games. But they were OK for the last pick of the 7th round.

At-large
1. Despite doing a lousy job with it I still liked the rule.
2. I should have appreciated just how awful the MEAC was. If I had maybe I would have drafted Del St like I should have. Got scared off by their 1-8 pre-league record.
3. Biggest bust was R.Morris. A lot of us thought they'd be good. W.Ky was also a disappointment.
4. Need to develop a better and longer list next year. My top 6 teams on the list were good but I was really kind of lost after that.
5. TBL striking gold with Davidson was a huge factor for him being so good in the roto.

 

[IUTerry]

And some from me (including a depressing thought for rolo)

Rolo's Winthrop team won EVERY roto game they played. Every single one of them. Undefeated in conference and undefeated in their tournament. They are the only roto team that can say this. And yet there are 5 other at-large picks with either one less, the same, or more wins as Winthrop. In other words, wow, the number of games played makes a big difference.

Another thing that stands out to me is that there are a large number of conferences that are very deep without being top-heavy, so that there isn't much of a difference between picking the 1st or 2nd team from the conference or picking 4th, 5th, or 6th. If only we could accurately figure out which conferences those would be in advance (though sometimes it's pretty obvious -- like the MVC this season). Examples:

A10 - 6 teams between 10-13 wins
ACC - 5 teams with 10 or 11 wins
B10 - 6 teams between 8-10 wins
BEast - 8 teams between 10-13 wins

There's more like that as well.

The other thing that struck me is that, as a group, we did a pretty good job of picking teams in the right order. Not perfect, obviously, but damn good. And the few places where we were completely off (like Wichita, Penn State, and Washington St) are places where EVERYONE was completely off. Wichita was a bad pick, but it wasn't a dumb pick.

 

[Satchmore]

Even if I pick from the correct league, I'll pick the wrong team.

Big East would have been example of that. If I hadn't taken dreadful S.Car, I would have grabbed pitiful S.Hall even though a decent St.John's team was still around.

I think the thing with the Big East is to study the imbalanced schedules and make your pick by the 7th round. You and CJ ended up good by picking later, but I still think that's dicey.

But I got lazy on the Big East. I should have gone there at some point. I had G'town on my short list at the 5-6 turn, but Rum took them just 2 picks ahead of me. Think how dramatically that would have changed things for me if I ended up with G'town instead of SMU as a 6th round pick.

Two of those 10+ win teams from the A10 were flukes (Fordham and RI). I don't think you can count on that unless you do your homework well. A10 has typically been a league that I don't like drafting late, but it's been better the last couple years.

I had no comfort level with what was going to happen in the Big 10 and ACC past the first 2 rounds. ACC has been a league that usually bites me pretty hard.

I think everyone knew the situation with Winthrop and their schedule. It's still a good deal because you knew they weren't going to disappoint. Some of the other a-ls did.

I'd agree for the most part we did a good job. There were big misses, but like you say they were unpredictable.

 

[rolo tomasi]

One depressing thought is easily lost in a sea of depressing thoughts.

You want depressing...

Winthrop, Tech, Pitt and RI have compiled a 47-18 record. A 72% winning percentage. So...say the rest of my teams won a paltry 45% of their games during the course of the season which would mean 47 additional wins for Rolo to date. So 94 wins on the season which is nowhere near the league leaders but at the same time isn't a complete travestshamockery.

Ark, Mizzou, Ill State, PSU, AZ State and Mouse McFadden have instead combined to go 27-77 or 26% (I'm already assuming the PSU loss today in those numbers). Every time I think about this roto season I hear this voice whispering "Rolo, have the lambs stopped screaming?" continually. Much worse than the typical voices I hear whispering in my ear.

The horror. The horror.