Sagarin Ratings

[JayEd3]

How is it that Wichita St is ranked 16th, and we're 32? Strength of schedule is close (68 for WS and 74 for IU. We are 3-3 against the top 25 and 5-3 against top 50. They are 0-1 and 2-2. Doesn't make sense?!?!?!

Forgot records....they are 16-2 compared to IU at 15-4, so guess that could be a big part of it.
This post was edited on 1/23 9:36 AM by JayEd3

 

[Raul Duke]

We had a home loss that was a turd

I'm sure that factors significantly.

 

[iubud]

I saw Wichita State play

Wichita State is worthy of #16. I think we are a little under-ranked until our SOS catches us back up as we play more conference games. I don't see why we are behind SMU, Northern Iowa, Davidson, Ohio State, and others. I also saw Northern Iowa and they are not a top 25 team.

People that complained about our SOS should note that we are up to #74 while OSU is #128.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Sagar in doesn't care about wins

Sagarin only cares about points. We had quite a few wins that were closer than they should have been.

 

[YOTHN]

Re: Sagar in doesn't care about wins

Yeah but SMU is ahead of IU with a worse SOS. OSU is ranked awell head of IU with 6 losses and a WAY worse SOS. Butler is ahead of IU. I mean his rankings are really skewed against IU because when we play a bad team, they happened to be ranked 300+ instead of 194. It really shouldn't have as much weight as it does.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Two things.

It's not skewed by individual game. It's essentially how many points we score, compared to how many we give up, compared to who we've played. There's nothing wrong - as far as Sagarin is concerned - with playing a 300+ team. There is something wrong with playing a 300+ team and not beating them by 30.

Second, it's worth remembering that Sagarin ratings continue to be one of the best predictors for future game results.

Bonus point: I'm not sure how Sagarin adjusts for time, but it's also worth remembering that we are probably better now than we were two months ago.

 

[YOTHN]

Re: Two things.

Oh it does matter because that's what determines the SOS. Indiana has played the second most top 25 teams and the second most top 50 teams yet our SOS is in the 70's? Not only that but we have done a pretty good job against them as well yet somehow our SOS is way down. You can't sit here and tell me that playing those lowly ranked opponents didnt hurt our SOS which in turn kills our ranking, regardless of points scored. I also know a lot of games where we destroyed teams sp that should counter balance the close wins. There is more to it then just how many points you win by.
This post was edited on 1/23 4:19 PM by YOTHN

 

[booyah31183]

Goat was spot on

Teams aren't necessarily penalized by playing lowly ranked opponents and having a weak SOS. Teams are penalized for not doing as well against their particular schedules as would be expected.

Let's say we could have two different versions of the current season - One in which IU beat all of their cupcakes by 50 points when the typical team beat them by 25, and a second version in which IU beat all of their cupcakes by only 15 points when the typical team beat them by the same 25 points.

In these two scenarios, IU has the same exact SOS. In the first scenario, IU outperformed expectations and is therefore rewarded by the rating system. In the second scenario, IU underperforms expectations and is penalized even though they won all of the games against the same teams.

So, it's not the SOS in particular that hurts IU in these ratings, it's how IU did against those poorly ranked teams. You're correct that IU blew some of them out, but other teams blew them out by even more.

 

[ulrey]

Wichita st is legit