Predictions

[Upset Alert]

My curiosity about pre-season predictions is a bit more morbid,,,I'm curious who the pie-in-the-sky guys are who pump every expectation over the moon then turn on the team and coach when their...prediction...don't come true. I like getting them on record. Caught quite a bunch last season. Doesn't mean a thing...kinda like duck hunting...vbg...

It'll be interesting what the excuses will be, if less than 6 wins happens next season by the same posters who peg IU for 6-8 victories for the upcoming season. I'm not sure if others are using "expectations" or "blind faith optimism" as their barometer. If it's the former, then I would expect those same posters to be a little more uncomfortable with two straight years of underachieving and questioning the direction we're going. If it's the latter, then it shows they are "true settlers" and will accept anything that wears red and talks a good game.

 

[Walt542]

I think that it is unknown as to how successful this team can be. I have a good feeling about Allen, but there isn’t a lot of factual evidence as to where they’ll end up. But I’ll go out on a limb and make a prediction based on the limited evidence we do have.

1. The QB situation is fine. I think that Dawkins adds good depth, but from watching Ramsey in the spring game I think he’s the day 1 starter. He’s smooth and has a command of the offense. As we’ve seen since around 2011, it’s rare that a QB finishes the whole season in the Big Ten. You’ll need a backup for at least a couple of games, or some critical series at some point, so I feel good about Dawkins coming in and competing. I would argue that the QB situation is much better than last year.

2. Pass rush- I think that some of the freshman coming in play right away in pass rush scenarios which is a huge boost. I think that we will not have to blitz as often and can get home with 4. Some will redshirt, but I honestly think that a couple of those freshman d ends can play right away in pass rush scenarios and be a huge boost. I think that obviously having Sykes back is huge, and it’s reasonable to expect 10+ sacks from him in my opinion. He was solid when he was still raw. Now that he’s experienced, got better during his year off, and seems to be in great shape he is going to be a nightmare off of the edge. With the D-line rotation I expect IU to blitz less, and get home with 4. I think it was the Illinois game, but it was clear that blitzing exposed our DB’s and put them in rough spots. I think that’ll be changed this year.

3. Wide reciever- IU is stacked there. That’s the one position with no question marks imho. Hale is up to 230 and a huge body. Westbrook is in that 220 range. Both guys are close to 6’4”. You add Whop and Timian in the slot and you have a formitable group. There is a walk on out of Evansville who’s about 6’2” 225 who I think will turn some heads too. A good mix of big bodies and speed guys. In the spring game I could see scenarios where it will be nearly impossible to defend timian from the slot. He’s going to get matched up on linebackers and that will help make the reads easier for Ramsey and boost his confidence. He’s also got guys that will be beasts on comeback routes on the outside since they can box out db’s with that size. This means Ramsey’s arm stregnth won’t be exposed due to the talent around him.

4. The team looks like it’s in much better shape physically than last year. When you look at the roster, the lines are huge. Probably the biggest and most fit lines IU has ever had. I know when I played guys like Spriggs and feeney May have been the best to come out, but we always had an “undersized” group. These guys are fairly massive. And on top of that they looked more mobile in the spring game. For them it will be mental. Dan Feeney, Jake reed, Collin rahrig and Spriggs all had the highest football IQ’s you’ll see. I think that if this current group can have half of the football IQ that past groups had they’ll be better, because size/speed wise this is the best group. What was encouraing in the spring game was that they went at a pretty fast tempo and guys were still finishing blocks. The D-line has some big physical bodies too, and everyone seems to be in great shape. Allen made a great move getting a new stregnth coach.

5. I wish TD Roof was eligible now. That guy could start today. Linebacker is a concern. Outside of Walton I wasn’t impressed with anyone. Walton had 6 tackles, 5 of which came on one possession. Roof was physical and moved well. Outside of that no one stood out, and obviously Jones struggled last year. The reports say that jones had a good spring, but he’s always been a GREAT practice player. Now he needs to transition his raw talent to production on the field. If he does, he can be scary good. He’s physically more gifted than Scales. He was a DB, and when I was at IU he played with the quick twitch of a DB. Now we need to see that translate on saturdays. Walton is going to be a beast, so IU just needs to find that other linebacker and they’ll be set at that position.


That’s limited information. The key question is still can the offensive line improve from an IQ standpoint and produce. I think that will determine how far IU goes and that’s huge question. Another question mark is can these Young DB’s come along quickly. There were some errors in the spring game that highlight how young the group is. The TD to whop was unacceptable defense. He ran freely down the field in cover 3 but #19 has to bump him off of his route. The strong safety was has deep 3rd’s but was favoring the side with the tight end and not the side with 2 speed receivers. Those are inexperience errors from the free safety and strong safety, both of which could see some minutes this year, so that has to get sorted out. There were other errors as well that highlight how young that group is.

So in closing, if the O-line is better, and if the DB’s can come along, this is a 7-5 or 8-4 team. If the O-line can’t come along, and off the secondary is awful, this is a 4-8 team. I think that we could Be conservative and assume the o-line and db’s Will Be average, so a conservative guess Is that this will be a 6-6 team.

Wow 84. You are getting me encouraged with this post.

 

[iueyedoc99]

http://puntjohnpunt.com/2018/03/26/projecting-wins-2018-edition/#more-7268

Go Hoosiers!

I’m just going to bump this link because, beyond the prediction, it’s a great quick read on the psychology of fan predictions and the “IU fans dilemma”.

 

[Crimson Crush]

It'll be interesting what the excuses will be, if less than 6 wins happens next season by the same posters who peg IU for 6-8 victories for the upcoming season. I'm not sure if others are using "expectations" or "blind faith optimism" as their barometer. If it's the former, then I would expect those same posters to be a little more uncomfortable with two straight years of underachieving and questioning the direction we're going. If it's the latter, then it shows they are "true settlers" and will accept anything that wears red and talks a good game.

Fair enough and I will be disappointed with anything less than 6 wins. This is a crucial season in Allen’s tenure and he’s not stupid. He knows it.

My question to you: if Allen does achieve a bowl and get to, say, 7 wins will you come on here with something positive for once or will will you always be finding the dark clouds in the silver lining?
In other words, will you offer kudos or stay in the corner without a peep?

 

[Bowlmania]

It'll be interesting what the excuses will be, if less than 6 wins happens next season by the same posters who peg IU for 6-8 victories for the upcoming season. I'm not sure if others are using "expectations" or "blind faith optimism" as their barometer. If it's the former, then I would expect those same posters to be a little more uncomfortable with two straight years of underachieving and questioning the direction we're going. If it's the latter, then it shows they are "true settlers" and will accept anything that wears red and talks a good game.

You'll never pass up an opportunity to take a shot at posters on this board, even if it's anticipatory. And you've hardly made some bold prediction that differs radically from the majority here. You called for five wins. So have some others and, at five, you're not far removed from the six/seven crowd.

The pontificating is getting old. Try a new shtick.

 

[IUCol]

It'll be interesting what the excuses will be, if less than 6 wins happens next season by the same posters who peg IU for 6-8 victories for the upcoming season. I'm not sure if others are using "expectations" or "blind faith optimism" as their barometer. If it's the former, then I would expect those same posters to be a little more uncomfortable with two straight years of underachieving and questioning the direction we're going. If it's the latter, then it shows they are "true settlers" and will accept anything that wears red and talks a good game.

Look, though I have some concerns, and I hate when some, very few really, seem to make their predictions more important than the team winning or losing, but the majority of fans will root for a solid season rather than a poor one because its more fun than expecting a collapse. I'll buy that. I see absolutely nothing wrong with it. That's just being a fan. So am I. I try to keep my feet grounded as too many times over the last few decades expectations have been smashed...over and over.

Where I sit there is nothing wrong with blind faith when it comes to your Alma Mater...I secretly go into each game thinking we just might win. I just don't say it out loud.

My Bone to pick are with those stated few who demand rather than expect. Kinda of a fine line. Not worth fight over...imho.

 

[ESalum86]

I think I am as optimistic as anyone on this board. I predicted 7-5 last year and honestly felt it would be better. I was wrong.

I think we have a stronger offense this year. I love the athleticism we're stacking in our defense but know we lost a lot of experience and talent.

I expect a bowl this year. However, I wouldn't be surprised, although I would be disappointed at 5-7. IU is so young this year. I posted before something like 60% of our roster will have at least three years of eligibility (including 2018) when they take the field at FIU in September. The schedule is not as brutal as last year, but it leaves a lot of questions due to our youth.

I'm not thrilled opening on the road with such a young team. Once again, I believe the UVA game is a linchpin to the season. I don't like our schedule the month of October. I wish our bye week was after either the OSU or Iowa game.

I break down our schedule like this:
SHOULD win (3): @ FIU, BSU, @ Rutgers
50/50 games (4): UVA, @Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue
COULD win (4): Michigan St, Iowa, Penn St, Michigan
Long shot (1): Ohio St

If we win the SHOULD win games (which we don't often do) and hold serve at home in the 50/50 games we go bowling. 75% of the COULD win games are at home and I respect but do not fear any of those teams. Steal one or two and we're looking at a special season.

Worst case scenario: our youth comes out cocky and gets beat on the road and UVA punches them in the mouth. We beat BSU and Rutgers but the wheels fall off with a brutal October gauntlet and we never recover. 2-10

Best case scenario: we win solidly (not a blowout) at FIU, beat UVA then pull off an upset over MSU on our way to a 5-0 start. Lose late at OSU but shock the world with back to back home wins. Confidence soars and we row right over Minny (see what I did there) and walk into UM with one loss and catch them looking ahead to OSU. Start slow against Purdue but dominate the second half to finish 11-1.

Put me down for 6-6, but let the record show if we face the crazy injury/weather/schedule bounces we did last year I have no idea how this is going to play out. Let me also say I think in 2019 and 2020 we really start to soar!

 

[DANC]

It is way too early but I’ll jump in anyway. Realistically it could be anything from 4-8 to 7-5. Anything higher would be a major surprise and lower would be major disappoint.

Lot of new faces with better athleticism that could jell or never come together with returning talent. We are not top level B1G talent yet though but we keep creeping a little closer.

I disagree with the feeling that was expressed that CTA will not be given the time if this is a disappointing year. I truly think that Glass believes in what Allen is doing and understands the enormity of the task in front of him. As long as there is incremental improvement each year as there was this year in a good recruiting class, upgrade in coaching, etc., Allen will be given plenty of leash.

4-8 is not acceptable to me. At all. 4-8 means there are some serious issues beyond just talent.

All this talk about improved talent under Wilson and 2 supposedly good recruiting classes under Allen..... it's time for some coaching talent to show itself.

5-7 would be very disappointing, but it's how the losses are. If we play some games like against UM and MSU this year, that shows we're still competitive. But many more games like against Maryland and PU this year - that won't cut it.

5-7 won't have me calling for a coaching change, necessarily. 4-8 will, minus some extenuating circumstances.

It's time to expect more. 5-7 should be a down year, not an average one.

 

[Superstar84b]

4-8 is not acceptable to me. At all. 4-8 means there are some serious issues beyond just talent.

All this talk about improved talent under Wilson and 2 supposedly good recruiting classes under Allen..... it's time for some coaching talent to show itself.

5-7 would be very disappointing, but it's how the losses are. If we play some games like against UM and MSU this year, that shows we're still competitive. But many more games like against Maryland and PU this year - that won't cut it.

5-7 won't have me calling for a coaching change, necessarily. 4-8 will, minus some extenuating circumstances.

It's time to expect more. 5-7 should be a down year, not an average one.

I agree that 5-7 should be below expectations. I differ when it comes to 4-8. As I noted, isn’t it reasonable that if OL and DB are question marks, this team could realistically be 4-8? There are actual concerns and unknowns at those position groups, and those position groups can literal be the difference in most circumstances. I think that the DB group, particularly at safety, is shakier and less experienced than people realize. I believe Ball has to improve from the prior two years and anchor that group as well from his husky position. Can Issac James be a viable backup at Husky? These are all legitimate question marks. OL is obviously the biggest question mark. I think that it’s possible that Allen could be the man, and the team could still end 4-8. So as you said, and I agree here, it depends on how 5-7/4-8 occur. There was a huge difference between Iu’s 5-7 season in 2010 for example, and Iu’s 5-7 season In 2013. So we know that the same record may not reflect where the team is actually headed. I see the program making strides and I believe the program is close to really breaking through. The strength and conditioning is legitimate, you can see it in how these guys are looking. I just think that it’s possible that the general direction of the program could still be going upwards, and a few bad plays in the defensive backfield and OL issues could still result in a 4-8 season in a worse case scenario, as I noted in my prior post.

 

[DANC]

I agree that 5-7 should be below expectations. I differ when it comes to 4-8. As I noted, isn’t it reasonable that if OL and DB are question marks, this team could realistically be 4-8? There are actual concerns and unknowns at those position groups, and those position groups can literal be the difference in most circumstances. I think that the DB group, particularly at safety, is shakier and less experienced than people realize. I believe Ball has to improve from the prior two years and anchor that group as well from his husky position. Can Issac James be a viable backup at Husky? These are all legitimate question marks. OL is obviously the biggest question mark. I think that it’s possible that Allen could be the man, and the team could still end 4-8. So as you said, and I agree here, it depends on how 5-7/4-8 occur. There was a huge difference between Iu’s 5-7 season in 2010 for example, and Iu’s 5-7 season In 2013. So we know that the same record may not reflect where the team is actually headed. I see the program making strides and I believe the program is close to really breaking through. The strength and conditioning is legitimate, you can see it in how these guys are looking. I just think that it’s possible that the general direction of the program could still be going upwards, and a few bad plays in the defensive backfield and OL issues could still result in a 4-8 season in a worse case scenario, as I noted in my prior post.

If you think the OL is a question mark, then we really are in trouble. It has the most veterans returning! And we have a plethora of DBs - maybe not as experienced as those that left, but the cupboard is far from bare there. With Ball back, it will greatly strengthen that group, although he plays a hybrid.

The big question marks on this team are LB and DL. I haven't seen much concern here about DL, but that group isn't very experienced and we've lost a lot over the last 2 years from that position. LBs are a total question mark, as we've lost NFL players over the last 2 years. Ball is back, which is good, but not sure if he counts as an LB or DB.

As for S&C, I want to see real proof. Not "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". There are plenty of guys who look good in the gym.

The times for excuses are over. All I've heard is how Wilson upgraded our talent; how Allen is really bringing in the recruits - great! I'm all for it. But 4-8 at this point tells me talent isn't the total problem. And I don't want to wait around another 4 to 5 years to still be talking about an 'average' 5-7 record. It says loads about IU fan expectations when 5-7 records are common.

We've got the facilities; we've got the upgraded talent (so we're told); we have the scientific S&C staff. It's time for the payoff.

 

[Superstar84b]

If you think the OL is a question mark, then we really are in trouble. It has the most veterans returning! And we have a plethora of DBs - maybe not as experienced as those that left, but the cupboard is far from bare there. With Ball back, it will greatly strengthen that group, although he plays a hybrid.

The big question marks on this team are LB and DL. I haven't seen much concern here about DL, but that group isn't very experienced and we've lost a lot over the last 2 years from that position. LBs are a total question mark, as we've lost NFL players over the last 2 years. Ball is back, which is good, but not sure if he counts as an LB or DB.

As for S&C, I want to see real proof. Not "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". There are plenty of guys who look good in the gym.

The times for excuses are over. All I've heard is how Wilson upgraded our talent; how Allen is really bringing in the recruits - great! I'm all for it. But 4-8 at this point tells me talent isn't the total problem. And I don't want to wait around another 4 to 5 years to still be talking about an 'average' 5-7 record. It says loads about IU fan expectations when 5-7 records are common.

We've got the facilities; we've got the upgraded talent (so we're told); we have the scientific S&C staff. It's time for the payoff.

OL is a concern to me because we haven’t seen this group play at a high level. Wes Martin has been a guy who’s shown flashes, and has BEEN the strongest man on the team (along with Hoff who just left) since he got to IU. The question mark is can the veteran group put it all together. Guys like Martin, and Knight and Cronk have all shown flashes, but last year was obviously unacceptable. The strength and conditioning I believe has helped them. Again we only have a sample size, but in the spring game they seemed to aggressively finish blocks playing at an accelerated tempo, and looked in better shape/more agile. So I’m hopeful that they will be improved, but I think that it’s fair to still list the group as a question mark at this point.

D-Line isn’t as much of a concern to me because of depth. I think that they played okay last year and they didn’t lose a lot besides hoff in terms of production. Robinson moving inside is going to pay off this year, and he’s been a productive guy. The freshman d ends should contribute. I expect at least 2 to come in and play in pass rushing situations. It’s an easier task for those guys to come in and simply pass rush than it is for a young DB to understand coverages. Overall DL is more difficult for younger players, but if we simply need those younger guys to bring a pass rush, that’s historically easier for younger guys than stopping the run and playing 40+ snaps, which we won’t need them to do.

Lastly, at DB there are some good bodies and good talent. My concern is primarily experience. I can invision a scenario based on the spring game where there will be some miscommunication. I think that Riggins is exceptional, and I think that Crawford makes big plays obviously, but outside of that there’s a lot of youth, which is why DB is a big question mark. I agree that Ball is a hybrid, so it’s difficult to label him. He’s a play maker, great tackler, and has made big plays, but he also has mental lapses. Ball will need to be in peak form to be the player that they need him to be. He will definitely be matched up in man coverage on plenty of occasions, and that’s where he has been suspect in the past. He will get a pick, then give up a 40 yarder. Ball has to be in peak form to help that secondary. When you consider that, that can be the difference in close games, and could realistically lead to 4-8 in a worse case scenario if you combine that with a suspect Offensive Line. But if DB and OL are at least serviceable. I can see a 6-6 season at a minimum. If the Oline and DBs are clicking on all cylinders, I can see 7-5 or 8-4. My biggest point is that I wouldn’t think it’s time for Allen to go if the team is 4-8 unless there are obvious signs that he isn’t the man. If DBs for example are miscommunicating, or if we have a long-term issue at OL, then I won’t necessarily think that disqualifies Allen from still being the man. I think that it’s plausible that the program could still build a solid foundation. Obviously the ideal goal is for every man to click on all cylinders and for every man to be locked in, but if the personnel/experience isn’t there, I can’t put all of the blame on the head coach... this early in his tenure.

Lastly I’d say that I simply disagree that the recruiting classes were good. I think that Wilson’s last three classes were a step backward. At the same time, I don’t necessarily care in some ways because I’m convinced that you can coach a scholarship guy up if he is willing to buy in. It can just take some time. I think that Allen’s first full class was the best class personnel wise that IU has had in a long time. This is the best group of DEs I think IU has ever had in one class. So I think that it’s too early to pull the plug on CTA in year 2, even if a worst case 4-8 scenario happens.

I do agree with your general point that 4-8 isn’t what we want, and that we should desire for a minimum of a bowl. At the same time, there are logical scenarios that could prevent this team from doing so, and if that happens, I wouldn’t necessarily think it’s time to pull the plug on Allen. My prediction remains that if things simply go on schedule, 6-6 is the most likely outcome.

 

[Upset Alert]

Fair enough and I will be disappointed with anything less than 6 wins. This is a crucial season in Allen’s tenure and he’s not stupid. He knows it.

My question to you: if Allen does achieve a bowl and get to, say, 7 wins will you come on here with something positive for once or will will you always be finding the dark clouds in the silver lining?
In other words, will you offer kudos or stay in the corner without a peep?

I'll be more than willing to give props where and when it's due. I'd rather my prediction be off on the low side if I'm in error this time. And in case if you haven't noticed, I never trash our players or former coaches. Current coaches, FG and the administration are fair game to question at times however.

You'll never pass up an opportunity to take a shot at posters on this board, even if it's anticipatory. And you've hardly made some bold prediction that differs radically from the majority here. You called for five wins. So have some others and, at five, you're not far removed from the six/seven crowd.

The pontificating is getting old. Try a new shtick.

I'm not necessarily taking a shot. Just making a point for those that might overestimate the win total, or don't really have an expectation and concern if we don't get to six or more wins. Did you happen to see the preseason basketball predictions on the other board? I went back and read some old threads just to see. Reality set in real quick with the first game.

Yes, I am sticking with five wins. Nobody else's total influenced my thoughts. Dropping Illinois and adding Minnesota is a huge swing. On the road and on a Friday no less. Maybe we pull a win there and/or somewhere else I didn't mention already.

Look, though I have some concerns, and I hate when some, very few really, seem to make their predictions more important than the team winning or losing, but the majority of fans will root for a solid season rather than a poor one because its more fun than expecting a collapse. I'll buy that. I see absolutely nothing wrong with it. That's just being a fan. So am I. I try to keep my feet grounded as too many times over the last few decades expectations have been smashed...over and over.

Where I sit there is nothing wrong with blind faith when it comes to your Alma Mater...I secretly go into each game thinking we just might win. I just don't say it out loud.

My Bone to pick are with those stated few who demand rather than expect. Kinda of a fine line. Not worth fight over...imho.

Yeah, everyone should know these are the "way too early" predictions anyway. Just some rough drafts and random thoughts. I assume we get our official Swami Sez thread in late August right?

 

[IUCol]

I'm a airing out the old turban even as we speak. The crystal ball is coming clear...

 

[snowling]

Surprised me.

http://hoosierhuddle.com/hoosier-blog/there-is-a-surprise-at-the-top-of-our-post-spring-practice-big-ten-power-rankings/2018/4/22

Go Hoosiers!

 

[76-1]

Surprised me.

http://hoosierhuddle.com/hoosier-blog/there-is-a-surprise-at-the-top-of-our-post-spring-practice-big-ten-power-rankings/2018/4/22

Go Hoosiers!

Ah..., Hoosier Huddle..., one of my favorite Indiana sports sites... Mainly because at least they have figured out how to line up the state logo properly between the "45's"... Fred check it out

As far as the article goes, I'm not buying m$u as the best team in the Big Ten, unfortunately, once again, I'm thinking that distinction goes to "the" O$U, with WI hanging tight in 2nd..., MI ought to be up there with those two but I could easily see the most overpaid staff in all of college football outsmarting themselves again and finding a way to lose games they shouldn't on paper (which gives us a chance by the way), I'd rank m$u as tied for 3rd with the mighty weasels, after that comes P$U, then IA, then a mix of everyone else not named Illinois or Rutgers...

I see Maryland and pu as the teams we "need" to beat and I don't expect it to be easy ...

Other than O$U at their place I don't see any "Mission Impossible's" on the schedule, just a whole lot of "we'd better be at the very top of our game for a full 60 minutes types...

Should be a really interesting season...

 

[Bowlmania]

Ah..., Hoosier Huddle..., one of my favorite Indiana sports sites... Mainly because at least they have figured out how to line up the state logo properly between the "45's"... Fred check it out

As far as the article goes, I'm not buying m$u as the best team in the Big Ten, unfortunately, once again, I'm thinking that distinction goes to "the" O$U, with WI hanging tight in 2nd..., MI ought to be up there with those two but I could easily see the most overpaid staff in all of college football outsmarting themselves again and finding a way to lose games they shouldn't on paper (which gives us a chance by the way), I'd rank m$u as tied for 3rd with the mighty weasels, after that comes P$U, then IA, then a mix of everyone else not named Illinois or Rutgers...

I see Maryland and pu as the teams we "need" to beat and I don't expect it to be easy ...

Other than O$U at their place I don't see any "Mission Impossible's" on the schedule, just a whole lot of "we'd better be at the very top of our game for a full 60 minutes types...

Should be a really interesting season...

Agreed that it should be interesting. A successful season hinges on a fast start. 3-0 in the OOC schedule significantly boosts the statistical probability of at least six wins (72% likelihood). Conversely, a stumble in the first three weeks of the season makes the bowl-eligibility hill a much steeper climb - - and more of a long shot.

 

[td75]

I'll go with 6-6, and TBH, I'm hoping like crazy we at least go 6-6. I thought Allen had a clunker of a first season and I haven't publicly stated that until now. The schedule last year was just brutal though, and it's the main reason I haven't harped on last season's debacle. You CAN NOT have Purdue and Maryland losses if you aspire to be a bowl program...Indiana had a nice defense and should've ABSOLUTELY been a bowl team.

We need to see a crisp, well executed offense and an up to the job defense in the first few games this fall. This year is huge for the entire Tom Allen regime.

 

[Bowlmania]

I'll go with 6-6, and TBH, I'm hoping like crazy we at least go 6-6. I thought Allen had a clunker of a first season and I haven't publicly stated that until now. The schedule last year was just brutal though, and it's the main reason I haven't harped on last season's debacle. You CAN NOT have Purdue and Maryland losses if you aspire to be a bowl program...Indiana had a nice defense and should've ABSOLUTELY been a bowl team.

We need to see a crisp, well executed offense and an up to the job defense in the first few games this fall. This year is huge for the entire Tom Allen regime.

We had a nice defense but not a very good offense. The defense played well enough to beat Michigan State and Michigan but the offense didn't come through.

The Purdue loss was disappointing but they had a good team last season and were favored, at home, in the Bucket game. That was not a shocking loss. Regarding Maryland, virtually every team has a bad loss every season and Maryland was our bad loss. We dominated the game in almost every important category except on the scoreboard. A game like Maryland stands out like a sore thumb, partly because we lost several close games. If we won against either Michigan State or Michigan (or both), the Maryland mess wouldn't have been as significant.

We're close. We need to start winning more of these close games. We will if 1) the defense doesn't drop off precipitously (I think a decline is inevitable given what we lost but I don't think we'll come close to approaching the pre-Allen era depths); 2) the offense comes around (I firmly believe that it will); and 3) we see consistently better special teams play.

 

[Euro]

6 and 6 probably means we go 3 and 6 in the Big 10 which in my opinion is not very good.

 

[ElMeson]

6 and 6 probably means we go 3 and 6 in the Big 10 which in my opinion is not very good.

@Ohio St

Penn St

MSU

@Michigan

Iowa


So one more loss would be 6. We can be a very good team and lose 6. The Virginia and Maryland game are must wins. I do like our chances for a home upset over either Iowa or Sparty. With our schedule and division, 7 wins is a great year. Anything over is phenomenal and under 6 is a disappointment. I’m predicting a great year. (7-5)

 

[td75]

To truly be successful and have a program to be proud of, Indiana must figure out a way to beat Michigan, MSU, OSU and PSU from time to time. You can't have a legitimate program if you only beat them once every 4 decades....GD, that's TERRIBLE.

There's a reason that Iowa is legitimate, it's because they bust Michigan and Ohio State's head on the occasion. That fact alone, gives them lots of cred. I want that for Indiana football!

 

[Crimson Crush]

To truly be successful and have a program to be proud of, Indiana must figure out a way to beat Michigan, MSU, OSU and PSU from time to time. You can't have a legitimate program if you only beat them once every 4 decades....GD, that's TERRIBLE.

There's a reason that Iowa is legitimate, it's because they bust Michigan and Ohio State's head on the occasion. That fact alone, gives them lots of cred. I want that for Indiana football!

To compete with these teams and win on occasion, a program has to have solid line play. Up front is where it counts. Skill positions with a program like Iowa aren’t necessarily elite, although you rarely see them have a “clunker” at QB or RB, those positions are a lot like guys at IU. Where they excel is almost always on the OL and DL. They always have talent there in the hopper.

 

[Crimson Crush]

If you think the OL is a question mark, then we really are in trouble. It has the most veterans returning! And we have a plethora of DBs - maybe not as experienced as those that left, but the cupboard is far from bare there. With Ball back, it will greatly strengthen that group, although he plays a hybrid.

The big question marks on this team are LB and DL. I haven't seen much concern here about DL, but that group isn't very experienced and we've lost a lot over the last 2 years from that position. LBs are a total question mark, as we've lost NFL players over the last 2 years. Ball is back, which is good, but not sure if he counts as an LB or DB.

As for S&C, I want to see real proof. Not "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". There are plenty of guys who look good in the gym.

The times for excuses are over. All I've heard is how Wilson upgraded our talent; how Allen is really bringing in the recruits - great! I'm all for it. But 4-8 at this point tells me talent isn't the total problem. And I don't want to wait around another 4 to 5 years to still be talking about an 'average' 5-7 record. It says loads about IU fan expectations when 5-7 records are common.

We've got the facilities; we've got the upgraded talent (so we're told); we have the scientific S&C staff. It's time for the payoff.

We lost some DL veterans this year for sure. I guess the glimmer of hope there is that 2016 saw essentially a brand new D-line when Allen stepped in to the DC position and the new group gelled under his guidance.
We lost Latham, Shaw, Mangieri and Adarius Rayner after the bowl in 2015. All were starters.
Fortunately, the guys behind them already had some heavy rotational experience like McCray, Gooch, Hoff, Robinson, Ralph Green.

Now it is time for veterans to step up like Robinson, Stallings, Johnson, Bowen and Barwick with help from Head, Reece, Bryant and Minor. I’d expect all of these guys constantly rotating and maybe some freshmen surprises like a Jonathan King who is at 255 lbs already.

Every year there are always 2-3 unhyped, under-the-radar signees that get significant minutes as freshmen.

 

[Euro]

That means 4 and 5 in the Big Ten, would not call that great.

@Ohio St

Penn St

MSU

@Michigan

Iowa


So one more loss would be 6. We can be a very good team and lose 6. The Virginia and Maryland game are must wins. I do like our chances for a home upset over either Iowa or Sparty. With our schedule and division, 7 wins is a great year. Anything over is phenomenal and under 6 is a disappointment. I’m predicting a great year. (7-5)

 

[IUCol]

We lost some DL veterans this year for sure. I guess the glimmer of hope there is that 2016 saw essentially a brand new D-line when Allen stepped in to the DC position and the new group gelled under his guidance.
We lost Latham, Shaw, Mangieri and Adarius Rayner after the bowl in 2015. All were starters.
Fortunately, the guys behind them already had some heavy rotational experience like McCray, Gooch, Hoff, Robinson, Ralph Green.

Now it is time for veterans to step up like Robinson, Stallings, Johnson, Bowen and Barwick with help from Head, Reece, Bryant and Minor. I’d expect all of these guys constantly rotating and maybe some freshmen surprises like a Jonathan King who is at 255 lbs already.

Every year there are always 2-3 unhyped, under-the-radar signees that get significant minutes as freshmen.

The Oline gelled under one of the best Oline coaches in the country. He's gone in 2017...and for those who said his loss was no big deal, now the rubber meets the road.

 

[Bowlmania]

The Oline gelled under one of the best Oline coaches in the country. He's gone in 2017...and for those who said his loss was no big deal, now the rubber meets the road.

Frey's a good coach but Hiller's not too shabby either. He's had success as OL coach at other schools, and the group he's got at IU is now experienced with some depth. I think our OL will be a strength this year.

It'll be interesting to see how Frey does at FSU. Hopefully things go better than they did during his 2017 stint at Michigan. Michigan's offense was 105th nationally and the offensive line (Frey was co-offensive line coach) allowed 36 sacks, second worst in the conference.

 

[IUCol]

It took Frey more than one season at IU to establish our line as top ten. At UM the "co" was the operative prefix too imo. And at IU, he had an HC who was himself an Olineman. Didn't hurt. Don't think we will see that level of play for our Oline for some time. But adequate will work fine...if all other facets play up.

A lot to be proven yet...but may indeed be proven. But were not there yet.

 

[Crimson Crush]

It took Frey more than one season at IU to establish our line as top ten. At UM the "co" was the operative prefix too imo. And at IU, he had an HC who was himself an Olineman. Didn't hurt. Don't think we will see that level of play for our Oline for some time. But adequate will work fine...if all other facets play up.

A lot to be proven yet...but may indeed be proven. But were not there yet.

I think that Frey is an outstanding coach. I won’t deny that. He was subject to a lot of grumbling from the UM fan base in his 1st season and he got back to his alma mater on the first train out of town.
He did benefit from some outstanding talent in Spriggs and Feeney, which almost never come through IU. One could argue he had 4-star talent at UM and underperformed. In 2016, his line wasn’t nearly what it had been but much better than the drop we saw last year.
Hiller definitely is no slouch on paper. Not sure it is a fair comparison at the point. Maybe after a couple more seasons. He’s coached 24 years. Produced 20 players to the NFL. Had great success at USF with statistical rankings in 4 key categories (rushing, scoring, total offense, sacks allowed) in the top 15 nationally. His 3 years at Cincinnati also produced the top 3 offensive seasons in the school’s history.
It’s not like he was a real “reach” when we hired the guy.

 

[76-1]

It took Frey more than one season at IU to establish our line as top ten. At UM the "co" was the operative prefix too imo. And at IU, he had an HC who was himself an Olineman. Didn't hurt. Don't think we will see that level of play for our Oline for some time. But adequate will work fine...if all other facets play up.

A lot to be proven yet...but may indeed be proven. But were not there yet.

Given the talent Frey basically failed with up at MI I have to believe either he was overhyped or his MI 4&5 star linemen were... Makes me wonder just how much impact Wilson and Patton had on some of our lines that Frey got all the credit for...

 

[IUCol]

Geeesh man he didn't succeed here in his first year either...and UM is a coaching cesspool with Coach H on the job.

 

[Euro]

Agree with Harbaugh cesspool, he has won 2 more games than Hoke after 3 years and that's without playing ND 3 times and Alabama

Geeesh man he didn't succeed here in his first year either...and UM is a coaching cesspool with Coach H on the job.

 

[ESalum86]

To compete with these teams and win on occasion, a program has to have solid line play. Up front is where it counts. Skill positions with a program like Iowa aren’t necessarily elite, although you rarely see them have a “clunker” at QB or RB, those positions are a lot like guys at IU. Where they excel is almost always on the OL and DL. They always have talent there in the hopper.

The best things about strong OL & DL?

They make average skill position players look good.

They win ball games.

Winning ball games makes even better OL, DL & skill position recruits want to attend your school.

Start on the trenches and build out from there!

 

[IUCol]

The best things about strong OL & DL?

They make average skill position players look good.

They win ball games.

Winning ball games makes even better OL, DL & skill position recruits want to attend your school.

Start on the trenches and build out from there!

One slight caveat...I used to subscribe to the same logic you have put forward here...but after having arguable one of the top 5 olines in the country just a few years ago, the aforementioned pipeline of best Olinemen did not beat a path to IU. Maybe had coaching changes not happened, that might have occurred...and it might not have. Many have mentioned the talent falloff after the graduation of a few key players from that line.

I submit it will take sustained excellence along the line for X number of years before any top Olineman looking at schools will consider IU their 1st choice as a destination.

Bottom line: there just aren't that many of them.

 

[Chriselli]

Given the talent Frey basically failed with up at MI I have to believe either he was overhyped or his MI 4&5 star linemen were... Makes me wonder just how much impact Wilson and Patton had on some of our lines that Frey got all the credit for...

His QB was John O'Korn? Did you watch him play? It takes him ten minutes to put his socks on. Teams stacked the box and the offense sputtered. Your implication is that his success at IU was a fluke and that he's only good at coaching less-talented players? Did he forget how to teach technique? Maybe the game passed him by in the two years since he was a finalist for the top assistant coach nationally. SMH. Give credit where credit is due. He did a helluva job here and was missed no matter how you spin it.

 

[IUCol]

His QB was John O'Korn? Did you watch him play? It takes him ten minutes to put his socks on. Teams stacked the box and the offense sputtered. Your implication is that his success at IU was a fluke and that he's only good at coaching less-talented players? Did he forget how to teach technique? Maybe the game passed him by in the two years since he was a finalist for the top assistant coach nationally. SMH. Give credit where credit is due. He did a helluva job here and was missed no matter how you spin it.

Thank you. Some around here seemed to forget his talent the moment he left for UM. He left for the $1M/yr assistants can make. Turned out that under Coach H it wasn't worth it...vbg. I still wish him luck. I'd never seen a top 5 Oline at IU before or after him. Kudos

 

[JohnsyRick]

His QB was John O'Korn? Did you watch him play? It takes him ten minutes to put his socks on. Teams stacked the box and the offense sputtered. Your implication is that his success at IU was a fluke and that he's only good at coaching less-talented players? Did he forget how to teach technique? Maybe the game passed him by in the two years since he was a finalist for the top assistant coach nationally. SMH. Give credit where credit is due. He did a helluva job here and was missed no matter how you spin it.

I don’t believe Frey’s success at IU was a “fluke”, but it took time for him to build a good Oline, and frankly, there were a number of recruiting misses in his last couple of years. We can can blame it on whoever we want, but his last year here the Oline struggled and that was with Feeney.
Hiller’s Oline struggled mightily last year, but in fairness, not his players, he had to deal with the hand that was dealt him. We played a guy at tackle some last year that was a tight end and had to be moved to tackle out of necessity. You speak of O’Korn being a contributing factor to UM’s Oline struggles, agreed, don’t you think the same could be said for a very immobile Lagow ? I’m not going to criticize Greg Frey, he did a great job here, but I’m also saying you have to give Hiller the same time to recruit and develop an OL that we gave Frey.

 

[IUCol]

I also believe that Frey benefited from having Wilson as HC. He was the one who opened a lineman pipeline, if it could be said we had one, before Frey. He started building up front from the first day he arrived on campus. And at IU, it will always be that way until we win at a consistent level. One coach wont be enough to do much of anything without help. Allen included.

 

[DANC]

I don’t believe Frey’s success at IU was a “fluke”, but it took time for him to build a good Oline, and frankly, there were a number of recruiting misses in his last couple of years. We can can blame it on whoever we want, but his last year here the Oline struggled and that was with Feeney.
Hiller’s Oline struggled mightily last year, but in fairness, not his players, he had to deal with the hand that was dealt him. We played a guy at tackle some last year that was a tight end and had to be moved to tackle out of necessity. You speak of O’Korn being a contributing factor to UM’s Oline struggles, agreed, don’t you think the same could be said for a very immobile Lagow ? I’m not going to criticize Greg Frey, he did a great job here, but I’m also saying you have to give Hiller the same time to recruit and develop an OL that we gave Frey.

I agree with you. But it's not like the OL under Lynch didn't have some major OL talent, such as James Brewer and Roger Saffold (still playing). Andrew McDonald also bounced around the NFL for a several years on the reserve squad and, I think, played for the Colts for a few games.

I'm not saying the OL was all-world then, but it was pretty decent at times with immobile QBs such as Ben Chappell, who set all kinds of passing records.

The point is, we've had some good OL players in the past - just not enough of them. Frey had some success, but the fact he had 2 NFL picks doesn't put him above other IU OL coaches in the past. I'm not saying he's bad - he's not, he's very good. But he was never the OL savior many thought he was. The fact that some here use MIchigan has a chance to knock him is kind of laughable, considering he was walking into an entirely new situation and Offense.

What IU needs to recruit consistently great OL is to win. Period. And beyond that, to win when you are having 2 or 3 drafted off your OL every year like Wisconsin, Michigan, O$U, (even Iowa) etc.

Northwestern ought to be our model. They are not great every year at any one position - but they have enough talent and FB smarts - and coaching - to consistently win. We don't need All Americans every year at OL or LB to win.

 

[Wysoc403]

With the conclusion of spring ball and not much going on in the college football world right now, I thought it might be a good time to roll out a predictions thread.

Since the end of what was for me a very disappointing season, we've seen some positive developments: a strong recruiting class, the hiring of strength and conditioning coach David Ballou, and the addition of grad transfers Nick Linder (center, Miami) and Brandon Dawkins (QB, Arizona).

Linder and Dawkins are huge gets. Dawkins brings dual threat skills that served him well at Arizona, fits well with what DeBord likes to do, and gives us some much needed depth (and experience) at QB. Linder started 26 games at Miami before being sidelined by an injury. He's got pretty good bloodlines - - his brother was a third round NFL draft pick and is the starting center for Jacksonville.

Both guys bring a ton of experience from major programs. They should make immediate contributions on the field and serve as leaders and mentors to position groups that can benefit from their knowledge and maturity.

CTA's defensive coaching prowess will be put to the test this season, with so many key guys graduating and moving on. With respect to the offense, I think we're going to see dramatic improvement and good production from DeBord's crew.

My hope for the Hoosiers between now and August: stay hungry, healthy and out of trouble.

My prediction: a 4-1 start, a 3-4 finish, for an overall record of 7-5. What do you think?

Anywhere from 4-8 to 7-5, but probably 5-7. Strengths at running back and wideout on offense and tackle and safety, including hybrid, on defense. Weaknesses or uncertainty at tight end, quarterback, offensive line, d end, linebacker and corner on defense, and at place kicker on special teams. A young team with more uncertainties than upside, so the margin for error is too thin for a winning season or bowl.

 

[Bowlmania]

Anywhere from 4-8 to 7-5, but probably 5-7. Strengths at running back and wideout on offense and tackle and safety, including hybrid, on defense. Weaknesses or uncertainty at tight end, quarterback, offensive line, d end, linebacker and corner on defense, and at place kicker on special teams. A young team with more uncertainties than upside, so the margin for error is too thin for a winning season or bowl.

Well, you've pretty much covered the whole range of realistic possibilities. Just a bit of wiggle room built into this prediction, don't you think? Be bold. It's ok to be wrong. Is it 5-7 or not? P.S. First time here??