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Prediction

bailey777

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Nov 18, 2011
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Here is what will happen imo.

1. The new AD kerps archie even though we miss the ncaa and flame out.

2. Next year we squeak into the NCAA with a 19-13 record and lose in the first round. Archie is kept for another year based on this massive success.

3. Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference. He is eventually fired after year 5 and the program is left in horrible shape.

4. Archie gets a job at Sam Houston State and IU hires the next hot new mid major who had a magical sweet sixeteen run.
 
I highly doubt Archie gets another HC job. I think he’ll go the John Groce assistant route for a bit.
 
I highly doubt Archie gets another HC job. I think he’ll go the John Groce assistant route for a bit.
I dont know look at crean. It seems you can be really bad as a coach and still get hired again. But I do not think archie will ever coach at a good D1 program again.
 
I dont know look at crean. It seems you can be really bad as a coach and still get hired again. But I do not think archie will ever coach at a good D1 program again.
Crean had a decent resume before IU. And for all his faults accomplished some small things at IU. He’s head and shoulders above Archie in every aspect.
 
If he gets into the NCAA with the roster as projected he may very well deserve more time. Making the dance next year doesnt look possible.
 
Crean had a decent resume before IU. And for all his faults accomplished some small things at IU. He’s head and shoulders above Archie in every aspect.
Good point. I did not like crean but he did get some results.
 
Here is what will happen imo.

1. The new AD kerps archie even though we miss the ncaa and flame out.

2. Next year we squeak into the NCAA with a 19-13 record and lose in the first round. Archie is kept for another year based on this massive success.

3. Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference. He is eventually fired after year 5 and the program is left in horrible shape.

4. Archie gets a job at Sam Houston State and IU hires the next hot new mid major who had a magical sweet sixeteen run.

here’s another scenario. IU rights the ship this season, gets into the tourney, maybe even wins a game. Next year we show modest improvement and go to the sweet 16.

People are shaking their heads thinking this idea is nuts, but we have the talent to do this, it’s just that expectations keep getting lowered. Last season we had those 12/13 games where the team quit, so people are just waiting for that to happen again. However, the B10 is an odd conference. The league may see its best team as a 3 seed, and a team like MSU is really having a big down year. Many teams that were looking good earlier (Michigan, OSU, Minnesota) are collapsing a little. The scenario above seems unlikely not because it couldn’t happen if we suddenly played sharply and with a sense of urgency, but because we are lowering our expectations like we are witnessing a total collapse.


If somehow IU gets into the tourney this year, and next year, with a sweet 16, they’ll be printing the “We’re back, again” tee shirts and giving Miller a lifetime extension. That’s how low expectations are right now.

then we get to:
“Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference.”
 
here’s another scenario. IU rights the ship this season, gets into the tourney, maybe even wins a game. Next year we show modest improvement and go to the sweet 16.

People are shaking their heads thinking this idea is nuts, but we have the talent to do this, it’s just that expectations keep getting lowered. Last season we had those 12/13 games where the team quit, so people are just waiting for that to happen again. However, the B10 is an odd conference. The league may see its best team as a 3 seed, and a team like MSU is really having a big down year. Many teams that were looking good earlier (Michigan, OSU, Minnesota) are collapsing a little. The scenario above seems unlikely not because it couldn’t happen if we suddenly played sharply and with a sense of urgency, but because we are lowering our expectations like we are witnessing a total collapse.


If somehow IU gets into the tourney this year, and next year, with a sweet 16, they’ll be printing the “We’re back, again” tee shirts and giving Miller a lifetime extension. That’s how low expectations are right now.

then we get to:
“Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference.”
As long as certain upperclassmen continue to play major minutes while not being productive, then Archie has no chance of rghting the ship this season, and his future may be decided.
 
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here’s another scenario. IU rights the ship this season, gets into the tourney, maybe even wins a game. Next year we show modest improvement and go to the sweet 16.

People are shaking their heads thinking this idea is nuts, but we have the talent to do this, it’s just that expectations keep getting lowered. Last season we had those 12/13 games where the team quit, so people are just waiting for that to happen again. However, the B10 is an odd conference. The league may see its best team as a 3 seed, and a team like MSU is really having a big down year. Many teams that were looking good earlier (Michigan, OSU, Minnesota) are collapsing a little. The scenario above seems unlikely not because it couldn’t happen if we suddenly played sharply and with a sense of urgency, but because we are lowering our expectations like we are witnessing a total collapse.


If somehow IU gets into the tourney this year, and next year, with a sweet 16, they’ll be printing the “We’re back, again” tee shirts and giving Miller a lifetime extension. That’s how low expectations are right now.

then we get to:
“Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference.”

I don't know, something has been off his whole time here and it really doesn't make much sense.

As Gavin said on Crimson Cast, his Dayton teams fought like hell, had players that played their roles and scrapped with a chip on their shoulder.

His teams at IU have folded. They've constantly not showed up for big games and really struggle with their effort for 40 minutes.

Before the season there was a post that said they talked to Ed Schilling and Ed said the players tended to tune him out.

He's obviously not the kind of tactical coach that can be successful from his 'genius' but he knows the nuance of the game enough that it shouldn't be a disadvantage.

When I watch us play, particularly offense, it has always seemed like we're playing in mud.

Purdue had a grace and rhythm to them that was striking to watch.

It was embarrassing watching our defenders get bogged down by all the screens they had to fight through. That used to be our calling card.

And make no mistake, Purdue is not super talented this year. If we would flip flop rosters I would bet Painter would have our team easily in the top 20 maybe top 15 while we'd be battling it out with Nebraska.

There are no excuses to miss the tourney this year. I know our guard play has sucked but a good coach would be able to manage it and put them in a position to succeed, like Painter has.

Hell Painter's guards are a 6'6" guy who can't shoot (Eastern) who was ranked around Smith, a 150 shooting guard (Hunter), a low 3 star gym rat who couldn't get off the bench last year (Sasha), a 3 star freshman (Thompson) and a grad transfer (Proctor).
 
here’s another scenario. IU rights the ship this season, gets into the tourney, maybe even wins a game. Next year we show modest improvement and go to the sweet 16.

People are shaking their heads thinking this idea is nuts, but we have the talent to do this, it’s just that expectations keep getting lowered. Last season we had those 12/13 games where the team quit, so people are just waiting for that to happen again. However, the B10 is an odd conference. The league may see its best team as a 3 seed, and a team like MSU is really having a big down year. Many teams that were looking good earlier (Michigan, OSU, Minnesota) are collapsing a little. The scenario above seems unlikely not because it couldn’t happen if we suddenly played sharply and with a sense of urgency, but because we are lowering our expectations like we are witnessing a total collapse.


If somehow IU gets into the tourney this year, and next year, with a sweet 16, they’ll be printing the “We’re back, again” tee shirts and giving Miller a lifetime extension. That’s how low expectations are right now.

then we get to:
“Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference.”
That would be great but I guve it less than a 1% chance of happening. The issues this team has arent getting fixed this late in the season. With 4 of the 6 next on the road id saying winning 2 of those would be best case.
 
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I don't know, something has been off his whole time here and it really doesn't make much sense.

As Gavin said on Crimson Cast, his Dayton teams fought like hell, had players that played their roles and scrapped with a chip on their shoulder.

His teams at IU have folded. They've constantly not showed up for big games and really struggle with their effort for 40 minutes.

Before the season there was a post that said they talked to Ed Schilling and Ed said the players tended to tune him out.

He's obviously not the kind of tactical coach that can be successful from his 'genius' but he knows the nuance of the game enough that it shouldn't be a disadvantage.

When I watch us play, particularly offense, it has always seemed like we're playing in mud.

Purdue had a grace and rhythm to them that was striking to watch.

It was embarrassing watching our defenders get bogged down by all the screens they had to fight through. That used to be our calling card.

And make no mistake, Purdue is not super talented this year. If we would flip flop rosters I would bet Painter would have our team easily in the top 20 maybe top 15 while we'd be battling it out with Nebraska.

There are no excuses to miss the tourney this year. I know our guard play has sucked but a good coach would be able to manage it and put them in a position to succeed, like Painter has.

Hell Painter's guards are a 6'6" guy who can't shoot (Eastern) who was ranked around Smith, a 150 shooting guard (Hunter), a low 3 star gym rat who couldn't get off the bench last year (Sasha), a 3 star freshman (Thompson) and a grad transfer (Proctor).

wish I could give this post more than one like!


Agreed 100% on how you think Painter would do with this roster. He squeezes every ounce out of his teams.
 
I highly doubt Archie gets another HC job. I think he’ll go the John Groce assistant route for a bit.

John Groce was hired as Akron's head coach within 2.5 weeks of being fired from Illinois, what assistant coaching route are you talking about?

Archie will almost assuredly be a head coach again, he's 41. Despite the lack of success at IU, he can coach although it's becoming more and more evident that the stage for him at IU is simply too big at the moment.
 
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Here is what will happen imo.

1. The new AD kerps archie even though we miss the ncaa and flame out.

2. Next year we squeak into the NCAA with a 19-13 record and lose in the first round. Archie is kept for another year based on this massive success.

3. Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference. He is eventually fired after year 5 and the program is left in horrible shape.

4. Archie gets a job at Sam Houston State and IU hires the next hot new mid major who had a magical sweet sixeteen run.


You forgot #5....Archie wins 75% of his games at San Houston State.......
 
wish I could give this post more than one like!


Agreed 100% on how you think Painter would do with this roster. He squeezes every ounce out of his teams.

He really does and deserves a tip of the hat.

I was so impressed and a little embarrassed watching his offense get so many great looks because they force our defenders to fight through so many bodies of screens. My favorite were the surprise screen (not sure of the terminology but it's where a defender is screened, he fights through it thinking its the only one but then gets jacked on the second screen because he didn't see it).

You know what I mean.

That used to be us.

That kind of scheme can make an average team a very good team...and can make a very good team a great one.
 
John Groce was hired as Akron's head coach within 2.5 weeks of being fired from Illinois, what assistant coaching route are you talking about?

Archie will almost assuredly be a head coach again, he's 41. Despite the lack of success at IU, he can coach although it's becoming more and more evident that the stage for him at IU is simply too big at the moment.
Stop letting facts get in the way
 
I dont know look at crean. It seems you can be really bad as a coach and still get hired again. But I do not think archie will ever coach at a good D1 program again.


I've heard and considered he might go the announcer route for a year or two after we fire him....thing is, he doesn't have the personality to be an announcer.

Looking at this from the "mitigation" perspective....so apparently Archie is 100% guaranteed through 3/22 and 50% guaranteed thereafter........so that shakes out as about $10M or so......problem is, there might not be great mitigation prospects there.......at the very best a couple of million over 4 years....

Thing is........Archie's probably ready to get out of Dodge, and the wife & kids probably are as well...........if we had a real AD, might be able to get him down to $7M or so......after all, how horrible must practices be right now?
 
I've heard and considered he might go the announcer route for a year or two after we fire him....thing is, he doesn't have the personality to be an announcer.

Looking at this from the "mitigation" perspective....so apparently Archie is 100% guaranteed through 3/22 and 50% guaranteed thereafter........so that shakes out as about $10M or so......problem is, there might not be great mitigation prospects there.......at the very best a couple of million over 4 years....

Thing is........Archie's probably ready to get out of Dodge, and the wife & kids probably are as well...........if we had a real AD, might be able to get him down to $7M or so......after all, how horrible must practices be right now?
Im sure he is ready to leave but without getting fired he wont. Thats leaving too much money on the table
 
I've heard and considered he might go the announcer route for a year or two after we fire him....thing is, he doesn't have the personality to be an announcer.

Looking at this from the "mitigation" perspective....so apparently Archie is 100% guaranteed through 3/22 and 50% guaranteed thereafter........so that shakes out as about $10M or so......problem is, there might not be great mitigation prospects there.......at the very best a couple of million over 4 years....

Thing is........Archie's probably ready to get out of Dodge, and the wife & kids probably are as well...........if we had a real AD, might be able to get him down to $7M or so......after all, how horrible must practices be right now?

Archie can do what he wants. $10M? He's set for life if he doesn't ever work again (assuming he's not spending like an NBA rookie and I doubt that he is). And he will surely work again if he wants to.

Doubt he's ready to leave. Coaches have huge egos. They aren't very likely to be swayed by public opinion.

I think there is some toxic chemistry on this team and I don't know why it hasn't been eliminated. I expect that the answer is that the AD is preventing it.
 
Archie can do what he wants. $10M? He's set for life if he doesn't ever work again (assuming he's not spending like an NBA rookie and I doubt that he is). And he will surely work again if he wants to.

Doubt he's ready to leave. Coaches have huge egos. They aren't very likely to be swayed by public opinion.

I think there is some toxic chemistry on this team and I don't know why it hasn't been eliminated. I expect that the answer is that the AD is preventing it.



If Archie wanted to send Green packing and Fred wouldn't allow it.......apologies to Archie. Even with the absurd SBoRs (on which no AD in the country followed suit), the coach is allowed to tell the player 'you can stay on 'ship but you will get no pt'. Would Fred have told him Green not only has to stay, but you must play him X amount of time? I can't imagine any coach putting up with that.

There must be some genuine BS somewhere, for Don to take Archie's side against Fred. Certainly an unusual move by company guy Don. There's smoke here......
 
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Here is what will happen imo.

1. The new AD kerps archie even though we miss the ncaa and flame out.

2. Next year we squeak into the NCAA with a 19-13 record and lose in the first round. Archie is kept for another year based on this massive success.

3. Archie losses most of the key players and in year 5 goes 6-14 in conference. He is eventually fired after year 5 and the program is left in horrible shape.

4. Archie gets a job at Sam Houston State and IU hires the next hot new mid major who had a magical sweet sixeteen run.

Sadly, I suspect that your prediction is spot on.
 
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If Archie wanted to send Green packing and Fred wouldn't allow it.......apologies to Archie. Even with the absurd SBoRs (on which no AD in the country followed suit), the coach is allowed to tell the player 'you can stay on 'ship but you will get no pt'. Would Fred have told him Green not only has to stay, but you must play him X amount of time? I can't imagine any coach putting up with that.

There must be some genuine BS somewhere, for Don to take Archie's side against Fred. Certainly an unusual move by company guy Don. There's smoke here......
Right ok so you have to owner the scholly but that doesn't mean you can't bench him, like you said is Glass saying you can't do something to "intentionally" make a player leave, that would be complete bush league but nothing surprises me with the clown.
 
If Archie wanted to send Green packing and Fred wouldn't allow it.......apologies to Archie. Even with the absurd SBoRs (on which no AD in the country followed suit), the coach is allowed to tell the player 'you can stay on 'ship but you will get no pt'. Would Fred have told him Green not only has to stay, but you must play him X amount of time? I can't imagine any coach putting up with that.

There must be some genuine BS somewhere, for Don to take Archie's side against Fred. Certainly an unusual move by company guy Don. There's smoke here......


Edit--One thing about this....we only have Victor's word for the quote....anybody else hear it??
 
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If Archie wanted to send Green packing and Fred wouldn't allow it.......apologies to Archie. Even with the absurd SBoRs (on which no AD in the country followed suit), the coach is allowed to tell the player 'you can stay on 'ship but you will get no pt'. Would Fred have told him Green not only has to stay, but you must play him X amount of time? I can't imagine any coach putting up with that.

There must be some genuine BS somewhere, for Don to take Archie's side against Fred. Certainly an unusual move by company guy Don. There's smoke here......


Another possibility that Don't quote would support (if accurate) would be that Fred has prohibited 'in your face' coaching on the part of CAM.........
 
Another possibility that Don't quote would support (if accurate) would be that Fred has prohibited 'in your face' coaching on the part of CAM.........
Archie can do what he wants and if freddie boy doesnt like it he can fire him and pay a massive buyout. Id tell fred to pound sand if i was archie.
 
Despite the lack of success at IU, he can coach although it's becoming more and more evident that the stage for him at IU is simply too big at the moment.

Great comment, one I have hard from my son but it just doesn't compute for me. Is it all the extraneous stuff that he can't deal with? Is it that IU has a bunch of prima donnas that he is not used to/capable of dealing with?

I mean, coaching is coaching isn't it?

What is your take?
 
wish I could give this post more than one like!


Agreed 100% on how you think Painter would do with this roster. He squeezes every ounce out of his teams.

And yet most PU fans I know wanted him gone just a few years ago.
 
Great comment, one I have hard from my son but it just doesn't compute for me. Is it all the extraneous stuff that he can't deal with? Is it that IU has a bunch of prima donnas that he is not used to/capable of dealing with?

I mean, coaching is coaching isn't it?

What is your take?

You know I think it's a multitude of things. At Dayton his teams were junkyard dogs who played with passion and energy. If you were being recruited by Dayton, chances are you were snubbed of better offers and you had to play with a chip on your shoulder to prove that you belonged and that is absolutely the way his teams played.

I just haven't seen that Indiana. Our players for the most part act like they could care less if they won or not. There's no life, no passion, no energy. Schematically I think Archie has been a little underwhelming but by far and away our biggest issues the last 3 years have been playing without a purpose. I can't say it's just the Crean era players and don't know if anything changes once you get past that era, but that ultimately falls on the head coach.

Player development has also been lacking in my opinion. I really haven't seen anyone (other than Morgan) make a leaps and bounds progression the last 3 years. Certain guys in certain areas are improving in different aspects, but unfortunately not collectively at an acceptable rate.

Archie will get his 4th year and as much as I have defended him and wanted him to succeed, I just think the stage is too big and the lights are too bright.
 
There must be some genuine BS somewhere, for Don to take Archie's side against Fred. Certainly an unusual move by company guy Don. There's smoke here......

What are you referring to with Don taking Archie' side?
 
If the AD turns out to be Dolson we might as all go away and find another team, cause IU just don't care.

Well there you go again there, victorbear, with your abject negativity. I'm quite certain that Scott Dolson will have goals of contending for and winning multiple Big Ten titles and regularly making deep runs in the NCAA tournament, just like Fred Glass. Quit your whining.
 
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