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Prediction Thread

PA is going to give me an ulcer. I have major anxiety about Trump pulling an upset there, which could unravel the whole thing.
Me, too....tho I think NC has a really good chance to go blue because Jim Clyburn lives next door and people in NC will remember him being emotional the day he endorsed Joe and turned the whole thing around....

My Guess:

Biden 337
Bonespurs 197
Dems keep the House & get 52 in the Senate.
 
Do you intentionally disregard the known and reputable pollsters? It’s like you are really searching for a source to tell you what you want to hear instead of how things are actually going.
Well, the polls were wrong in three states in 2016 that mattered....in Wis, HC won ALL the polls for the last 6 months and was ahead by 6 points in the poll averages on election day....and yet Trump jumped 6 points and won...

(I personally think the Russki IT guys in St Petersburg changed the vote totals on election night....and we're assured that can't happen again, but...) 🤷‍♂️
 
Well, the polls were wrong in three states in 2016 that mattered....in Wis, HC won ALL the polls for the last 6 months and was ahead by 6 points in the poll averages on election day....and yet Trump jumped 6 points and won...

(I personally think the Russki IT guys in St Petersburg changed the vote totals on election night....and we're assured that can't happen again, but...) 🤷‍♂️
It was not 6 in any of them, thought it was over 5 in Wisconsin and under 5 in the other two. But the Times is tracking those states if the polls were off as much as 2016. And while the polls in 16 underestimated Trump in 16, they underestimated Obama in 12 by about the same. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden
 
It was not 6 in any of them, thought it was over 5 in Wisconsin and under 5 in the other two. But the Times is tracking those states if the polls were off as much as 2016. And while the polls in 16 underestimated Trump in 16, they underestimated Obama in 12 by about the same. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden
Polling Data
PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
Final Results------46.547.23.61.0Trump +0.7
RCP Average10/26 - 11/2----46.840.35.82.0Clinton +6.5
Remington Research (R)*11/1 - 11/22720 LV1.949413--Clinton +8
Loras10/31 - 11/1500 LV4.4443872Clinton +6
Marquette10/26 - 10/311225 LV3.5464043Clinton +6
Emerson10/26 - 10/27400 LV4.9484291Clinton +

Didn't copy & paste very well, but it was 6.5% (!) on election night per Real Clear Politics (Click link to get a better view) and - as you can see - somehow on election night SEVEN PERCENT more voters suddenly decided for Trump than the average of the polls (which is why she didn't campaign in Wis - Why bother? She was ahead more than Biden is NOW !!) . Actually I think the Russian IT guys changed a digit or two in the electronic reporting on election night, but nobody seems to believe me or want to talk about it... 🤷‍♂️

SHE stays the same as the polling averages at 46% but he - mysteriously - bumps from 40.3% to 47.2%.

MAGIC !!! 💥
(or good Russian IT work...;))
 
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Polling Data
PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
Final Results------46.547.23.61.0Trump +0.7
RCP Average10/26 - 11/2----46.840.35.82.0Clinton +6.5
Remington Research (R)*11/1 - 11/22720 LV1.949413--Clinton +8
Loras10/31 - 11/1500 LV4.4443872Clinton +6
Marquette10/26 - 10/311225 LV3.5464043Clinton +6
Emerson10/26 - 10/27400 LV4.9484291Clinton +

Didn't copy & paste very well, but it was 6.5% (!) on election night per Real Clear Politics (Click link to get a better view) and - as you can see - somehow on election night SEVEN PERCENT more voters suddenly decided for Trump than the average of the polls (which is why she didn't campaign in Wis - Why bother? She was ahead more than Biden is NOW !!) . Actually I think the Russian IT guys changed a digit or two in the electronic reporting on election night, but nobody seems to believe me or want to talk about it... 🤷‍♂️

SHE stays the same as the polling averages at 46% but he - mysteriously - bumps from 40.3% to 47.2%.

MAGIC !!! 💥
(or good Russian IT work...;))

Here is 538 which shows 5.3. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

Black vote in Wisconsin was down 19% in 2016 from 2012. Some of that drop is due to that. https://apnews.com/article/2c6b7bd2812b49b4adb9615cd86137cd

In addition, polls in 2016 did not weight for education. So the high school educated White male was undercounted. All the major polling firms learned from that and now weight for education. That should make them more accurate.
 
I don't really know who will win. I have a gut feeling based on what I have learned about Trump and his base. I am prepared to be wrong. NBD.

My sister is on our county's election board and she says they have seen record numbers of early voters. Clark County, IN. I think it's remarkable that I am the only poster here who has put a Trump pick down for the record. It could happen. Tells me we are in for another temper-tantrum shit-show if it does.
2-3 weeks ago; TRUMP 315 Electoral Votes....my position....
 
LOTS of people HATE Trump....very few hate Joe (cept some Trump fanatics for no real reasons)...


I think the Hate vote is pretty widespread.

I think there are a lot more people voting against someine, rather than for someone.

But you don't get extra credit votes voting out of love. So who has the biggest hater group?

Pretty depressing really.
 
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I think we are close enough to next Tuesday now for a final prediction thread. What have you all?

I'm currently going with a cross between a blue wave and a more conservative result:

Biden 357
Dems Senate 53
Dems House 242

Biden 270
Trump 268
Senate R's 51
House D's 240

Could flip if AZ or NV to Trump. Or not close if PA to Biden.

My methodology is to add 3 to the MOE to Trump for each state according to 538, for undersampling. My made up methodology. Guessing on Congress.
 
LOTS of people HATE Trump....very few hate Joe (cept some Trump fanatics for no real reasons)...

No one hates Joe. He just has pretty much zero legislative accomplishments during his time in Congress, except for his "mistake" with the crime bill.

He is a career legislator, so he does not have take a stance on anything and can follow and not lead. Most Congresmen are that way. And why Governors are typically nominated for President.

Biden is example A of a pathetic, non-leader legislator. Pubs have a list of their own, so don't take this as political. Dole was the Pubs Biden.
 
No one hates Joe. He just has pretty much zero legislative accomplishments during his time in Congress, except for his "mistake" with the crime bill.

He is a career legislator, so he does not have take a stance on anything and can follow and not lead. Most Congresmen are that way. And why Governors are typically nominated for President.

Biden is example A of a pathetic, non-leader legislator. Pubs have a list of their own, so don't take this as political. Dole was the Pubs Biden.

Interesting perspective. I disagree with you, but I see where you're coming from. Dole is a great comparable for Biden. Not an inspiring guy...just a really decent, honorable, and thoughtful legislator. Dole's problem is that he wasn't right for the time he was running in. If he was running today, he'd be a great option to restore some dignity and calm to the office. I'd be thrilled with a Bob Dole nomination at this point after four years of DT.
 
No one hates Joe. He just has pretty much zero legislative accomplishments during his time in Congress, except for his "mistake" with the crime bill.

He is a career legislator, so he does not have take a stance on anything and can follow and not lead. Most Congresmen are that way. And why Governors are typically nominated for President.

Biden is example A of a pathetic, non-leader legislator. Pubs have a list of their own, so don't take this as political. Dole was the Pubs Biden.
after the election bob dole had a fantastic interview on jay Leno. Leno goes well bob it’s been it’s six months since the election how have you been keeping yourself busy. Dole goes oh well I’m occupying myself with all sorts of things jay. I joined a law firm for one. Leno goes great bob how long have you been with them. Are you enjoying it? Dole goes six months ago I joined up. Oh yeah great, great. Really good guys. Then dole took a long pause and goes one of these days I’m gonna have to get down there and meet em. Lmao.

He was dry as hell and then post election as funny as can be
 
Some do not like polls if it shows their side losing. It is true that polls can be wrong, in 2012 some were off in favor of Romney and in 2016 in favor of Clinton.

But they are like the meteorology, the best way to predict what will happen. You might want to take a 10 mile hike in shorts and a t-shirt on January 27, but if the weatherman is predicting -10 you should reconsider and not hang your hat on the weatherman often being wrong.

Yes, the polls might be wrong, Trump might win. Yes, the weatherman could be wrong in Bloomington today and it could cloud up and rain this afternoon. But based on our best available research, I am not taking an umbrella on my hike today.
 
Him claiming at that recent rally that doctors get paid more if a death is a Covid death is truly disgusting. I’d like him to say that to a front line doctors face. He’s a big tough guy so he should be able to do that.
Had the doctor from Jasper on Lawrence last night. He was livid over that.
 
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Tell me about Georgia.
In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
 
One interesting idea in favor of the polls, if there are shy Trump voters they are even shyer about their Senate vote. Trump leads the GOP Senate candidate in 30 of the 36 races. https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html#item-3

This is why I don’t buy that the shy Trump voter is a significant factor this year. At least it’s not as much of a factor as it was in 2016. Trump’s support should be lower than the senate pubs Support if this were true.

Even if this were still a thing, there’s enough pubs/independents that took a flyer on him in 2016 that won’t vote for him in 2020 to counter the effects of a “shy” Trump voter.

And the “social circle” concept is interesting. In theory, it sounds great. It makes a lot of sense.

But it doesn’t account for the perception that Trump has essentially been Teflon the entire time he’s ran and been president. It also doesn’t account for 2016 PTSD, from folks that thought he had no chance.

It’s going to be close in the states that matter, and that’s before the frivolous legal challenges are pursued that are intended to disenfranchise voters this time around.

That’s what scares me more than anything right now. Somehow the notion that voter fraud is rampant has become gospel in GOP circles. And it’s just not based on any objective facts, and is pure fantasy.

Side note- democracies become autocracies when the will of the people is suppressed. And suppressing votes = suppressing the will of the people. We’re on the precipice of one-Party minority rule, that is being upheld by a large slate of far-right judges with very radical ideas about the law.
 
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In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
Reputable links?
 
I wouldn't say there is a large number of shy Trump voters. But there are absolutely tons of Trumpers that love to troll the pollsters by telling them they are voting Biden just to skew everything on election day. We absolutely love to mess with liberal pollsters.
 
I wouldn't say there is a large number of shy Trump voters. But there are absolutely tons of Trumpers that love to troll the pollsters by telling them they are voting Biden just to skew everything on election day. We absolutely love to mess with liberal pollsters.

The question comes to how many populists are there. We know there are even more never Trumpers in the conservative movement, are there more than enough populists who just want to burn it all down to replace them.
 
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In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
Georgia and North Carolina are seeing a surge in black out turnout. I also believe all the other states you listed are as well. I think you are talking about in Miami Florida. Where they traditionally vote during souls to the polls. Also sometimes they plant these stories to stir up the voters to vote. You are fake news. O points awarded.
 
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In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.

I would be more worried about Kanye west panic in Minnesota

 
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Here is 538 which shows 5.3. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

Black vote in Wisconsin was down 19% in 2016 from 2012. Some of that drop is due to that. https://apnews.com/article/2c6b7bd2812b49b4adb9615cd86137cd

In addition, polls in 2016 did not weight for education. So the high school educated White male was undercounted. All the major polling firms learned from that and now weight for education. That should make them more accurate.
Well, OF COURSE the Black vote was gonna be down in 2016 !! BHO was not running....but HC was AHEAD by 6.5 even in CONSERVATIVE-leaning "Real Clear"...and in 538 by 5.3 anyway (& that Black vote thing should have been anticipated).

HOW DID TRUMP manage to OVERCOME THAT GIGANTIC GAP ON ELECTION DAY ??!?? (If not for Russian IT interference in the totals).

I read a book in the 90s about the Dewey-Truman polling fiasco and they flat-out stated that (paraphrasing) "such incorrect polling results could NEVER happen AGAIN, due to improved modern polling techniques"... oh, yeah?!??)

So WTF HAPPENED?!??

(Still don't buy that ALL the different polls "undercounted rural votes" or that people lied [all in one direction !?!] to pollsters... :rolleyes: )
 
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In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
Well, now their saying TONS OF BALLOTS are stuck in post offices in Miami Dade (thanx to Trump laying off postal workers & getting rid of sorting machines) and that may account for it some...
 
I’m going to panic. I’ve already justified stocking up on liquor due to panic. Don’t f*ck with me.:cool:

Wasserman saw the Trump momentum (and warned about it) in CD polls the week prior to election day in 2016. This year he sees an entirely different set of momentum driving the race...


In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
 
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In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.



You should probably add Texas to your list of "battleground" states...Yesterday was a pretty big day for the Dem cause in Texas...





 
I'm way too lazy to do serious analysis or actual math. So I'll simply predict that it's not going to be any sort of nail biter. Biden will win fairly decisively, both in electoral votes and margins in key states. This won't drag out for weeks.

Dems will take the Senate by a couple of seats, and of course will have the house.

No post election riots.

Bonus prediction. Joe does not finish his first term, though the reason why hasn't yet been revealed to me.

No post election riots with those results are telling. Guess those mericans with the guns would be dangerous
 
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