Prediction Thread: Indiana @ PU

[IU? I'm Fine]

PU defends their home turf exceedingly well. IU's guards laid an egg, a rotten one, at AH when PU visited last.

But, the Indiana team is finally mostly healthy. PU has hit rock bottom and is sinking further. Phin is playing much better and getting assists. AD and DG are known commodities and do their thing at the right times. JS is starting to hit warp speed. and TJD is stellar but can't do otherwise.

The secret weapon is RT. shhhhh….

And Archie Miller actually has a team that has some parts he can work with. IU has played their way in to the NCAAT. That other team has just played their way out.

Let's just do this.



Indiana 74; Subaru Prep (PU) 64


As an aside...their board is in meltdown. B & G gear-wearing fans are saying that they couldn't win against any conference team just now. I think it will be a good game. I hope that IU plays tough on the road tonight.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

IU by 5.

 

[dbmhoosier]

79-65 Ugly girls

 

[kkott]

PU defends their home turf exceedingly well. IU's guards laid an egg, a rotten one, at AH when PU visited last.

But, the Indiana team is finally mostly healthy. PU has hit rock bottom and is sinking further. Phin is playing much better and getting assists. AD and DG are known commodities and do their thing at the right times. JS is starting to hit warp speed. and TJD is stellar but can't do otherwise.

The secret weapon is RT. shhhhh….

And Archie Miller actually has a team that has some parts he can work with. Let's just do this.



Indiana 74; Subaru Prep (PU) 64


As an aside...their board is in meltdown. B & G gear-wearing fans are saying that they couldn't win against any conference team just now. I think it will be a good game. I hope that IU plays tough on the road tonight.

Should be a great test to see how far we've come. Yes, they're going to come out and play hard and scratch and claw thinking they can intimidate us, yes it will be the most hostile environment this team has faced, yes one of their no-names is going to come out on fire and make some 3s, yes their fans will be chanting and screaming full-throated "IU Sucks". But, we have the better team. If we give good effort and sustain it, I think we'll win. If we succumb to these factors and start hanging our heads and mooping, we do suck and will lose again. Let's see effort from the opening tip!

 

[cshartle123]

Purdue wins tonight. IU makes the tournament. PU misses. Indiana is a better basketball program year in and year out indefinitely.

 

[Birnk403]

Should be a great test to see how far we've come. Yes, they're going to come out and play hard and scratch and claw thinking they can intimidate us, yes it will be the most hostile environment this team has faced, yes one of their no-names is going to come out on fire and make some 3s, yes their fans will be chanting and screaming full-throated "IU Sucks". But, we have the better team. If we give good effort and sustain it, I think we'll win. If we succumb to these factors and start hanging our heads and mooping, we do suck and will lose again. Let's see effort from the opening tip!

I want IU to win as badly as anyone, but on what basis do you believe that IU has the better team?

 

[MikeHoncho69]

This is a tough one to predict. Which IU team shows up? Will the team care about getting a win at Mackey? Or will they show up and simply go through the motions?

If the team we saw beat Penn State on Sunday shows up, I like IU in a close one. 65-61 Hoosiers in that scenario.

However, if the lackadaisical, not-a-care-in-the-world team shows up, Purdue will boat race them in a carbon copy of the Bob Knight reunion game. 77-60 Boilers in that scenario.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

I want IU to win as badly as anyone, but on what basis do you believe that IU has the better team?

better raw talent from top to bottom, yes.

but, aside from the Minny game, we've flat out sucked on the road. And we're walking into the rattlesnake pit tonight. Against a team who is fighting to stay at or above .500 and still hold meaningful practices the Monday after the B1G tourney. Bad combination for a team who doesn't play well in red jerseys.

Do moral victories count? I'd just like us to play well and keep it close on the road. That's what you have to do if you really want to be in the big tourney. Not a fan of the one and done's but really not a fan of OAD in March tourneys, which is what happens when you can't suck it up away from home.

 

[Myhurricane]

74 to 62. Purdue controls game throughout and wins at home.

 

[ODommer]

This is a tough one to predict. Which IU team shows up? Will the team care about getting a win at Mackey? Or will they show up and simply go through the motions?

If the team we saw beat Penn State on Sunday shows up, I like IU in a close one. 65-61 Hoosiers in that scenario.

However, if the lackadaisical, not-a-care-in-the-world team shows up, Purdue will boat race them in a carbon copy of the Bob Knight reunion game. 77-60 Boilers in that scenario.

This is the type of road game where the top teams in each conference knows how to play in this environment, with their mental ear muffs fully employed...

The best example is Maryland, perched at the very top as the BIG season winds down and they could earn a #1 seed in the process...

Would be great for the Hoosiers to pull out a very difficult win tonight by applying their own mental progress...

IU - 72
PU - 69

 

[kkott]

I want IU to win as badly as anyone, but on what basis do you believe that IU has the better team?

Well, you're hitting the nail on the head. It's still undecided if we have the better "team". I should have said players or talent. We've yet to prove we are a better team. Hope we do so tonight, but I do think we have better individula players and talent.

 

[Birnk403]

Well, you're hitting the nail on the head. It's still undecided if we have the better "team". I should have said players or talent. We've yet to prove we are a better team. Hope we do so tonight, but I do think we have better individula players and talent.

I’m not even sure the latter is true, though I think there’s maybe a better argument for that. Maybe.

 

[abraxis]

PU 72 - IU 68. I think we give them a better game this time, but I think the rabid fans there will inspire their team to victory. There is a peculiarity about this IU team unlike others in the past. This is the ability to play solid, intensely focused ball some games, and lackadaisical on other occasions, or even in the same game like the Penn State 22-6 run or whatever it was. IU is too dependent on Green’s outside “firepower” which is very streaky. Hopefully, this will be Hunter’s break out game and we kick their sorry asses to a bloody pulp, in no uncertain terms.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

Prediction- win or lose comes down to one factor....Good Devonte or bad Devonte.

Ok, two factors--do the zebras get TJD on the bench with 2 fouls before the 2nd TV timeout?

Tre W is a good offensive player but sucks on D....TJD can own the paint tonight if he stays on the court and our guards don't throw the ball away on post entry. Use the Minny road win as a carbon copy for success.

 

[MikeHoncho69]

Prediction- win or lose comes down to one factor....Good Devonte or bad Devonte.

Ok, two factors--do the zebras get TJD on the bench with 2 fouls before the 2nd TV timeout?

Tre W is a good offensive player but sucks on D....TJD can own the paint tonight if he stays on the court and our guards don't throw the ball away on post entry. Use the Minny road win as a carbon copy for success.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Jackson-Davis saddled with two fouls before the under-16 media timeout.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Jackson-Davis saddled with two fouls before the under-16 media timeout.

throw Brunk and DD at Tre. 10 fouls to give. Put TJD on the bald ivy league guy.

Can't remember the last time IU went to Mackey and actually shot the ball well. Maybe the Zeller/Sheehey muscle-flex game?

 

[kkott]

PU 72 - IU 68. I think we give them a better game this time, but I think the rabid fans there will inspire their team to victory. There is a peculiarity about this IU team unlike others in the past. This is the ability to play solid, intensely focused ball some games, and lackadaisical on other occasions, or even in the same game like the Penn State 22-6 run or whatever it was. IU is too dependent on Green’s outside “firepower” which is very streaky. Hopefully, this will be Hunter’s break out game and we kick their sorry asses to a bloody pulp, in no uncertain terms.

I don't think it's unlike others in the past... I think it's exactly like last years team, just not as bad. We're not confident and give up a little or a lot when things get tough. We've got to learn how to win, which makes it really hard when we don't have a leader. If this team buys in and brings energy and effort they can be a good team and a tournament team. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight.

 

[Eurocyldon]

Purdue by 6. Just haven't seen enough from IU on the road to feel like they can overcome their shooting woes. If someone doesn't show up ready to shoot at a high level it could get ugly because Purdue will double the post on the catch until someone makes them pay the price from three.

On defense, it is conceivable Brunk, D Davis, Race, and TJD all foul out. IU will get no slack and home cooking will abound. If you have watched conference play you know you start out already down just on the quick whistles trying to play defense on one end while being mugged on the other with no call at all.

If you want to simplify it, what Rob Phinisee shows up? If he comes to compete on both ends that changes things. In his last game he hit seven of eight free throws. In the seven games prior he only attempted eight total free throws. He averages about two free throws a game. Not attacking. Not being aggressive. Not forcing the other team to respect him.

Rob takes under seven shots a game and about 40% of those are from three. He hits the three at just under 36%, which seems ok, but he is 0-5 in the last three games.

I have to believe Rob is not 100% healthy. If he ever turns it back on to being aggressive and becoming a threat the team steps up to another level. But if he is healthy and this is the best he can do, he'll be on the bench when Lander arrives, or he will be gone by then.

 

[wawasee]

I think Purdue wins their super bowl. Shoot out of their minds from three..

 

[MikeHoncho69]

Purdue by 6. Just haven't seen enough from IU on the road to feel like they can overcome their shooting woes. If someone doesn't show up ready to shoot at a high level, it could get ugly, because Purdue will double the post on the catch until someone makes them pay the price from three.

On defense, it is conceivable Brunk, D Davis, Race, and TJD all foul out. IU will get no slack and home cooking will abound. If you have watched conference play you know you start out already down just on the quick whistles trying to play defense on one end while being mugged on the other with no call at all.

If you want to simplify it, what Rob Phinisee shows up? If he comes to compete on both ends that changes things. In his last game he hit seven of eight free throws. In the seven games prior he only attempted eight total free throws. He averages about two free throws a game. Not attacking. Not being aggressive. Not forcing the other team to respect him.

Rob takes under seven shots a game and about 40% of those are from three. He hits the three at just under 36%, which seems ok, but he is 0-5 in the last three games.

I have to believe Rob is not 100% healthy. If he ever turns it back on to being aggressive and becoming a threat the team step up to another level. But if he is healthy and this is the best he can do, he'll be on the bench when Lander arrives, or he will be gone by then.

Well said. This particular team is built to feed the post and get to the free-throw line. While the Hoosiers are only shooting 68% from the free-throw line (433/634 on the season), it's a more effective solution than chucking up prayers from three.

Archie, Bruiser Flint, Tom Ostrom and Mike Roberts should be demanding that the guards actively seek entry passes to Jackson-Davis on the post. Tony Adragna (@CoachAdragna) provided a few film clips on Twitter of Archie designing sets that got Jackson-Davis in an isolation in the paint against Minnesota big man Daniel Oturu in Minneapolis. Jackson-Davis went for 27 points and 16 boards in a 12-point road victory.

Purdue does not have a big anywhere near the quality of Oturu, so I'm hoping to see a similar strategy play out in West Lafayette.

 

[Jssanto]

What is our record at Mackey post Knight and Keady?
If we win, I do not see by more than a last second basket or a last second stop.

 

[MikeHoncho69]

What is our record at Mackey post Knight and Keady?
If we win, I do not see by more than a last second basket or a last second stop.

Since Bobby Knight was fired in September of 2000, IU is 5-10 at Mackey Arena.

 

[ATLHoosier]

Since Bobby Knight was fired in September of 2000, IU is 5-10 at Mackey Arena.

Speaking of which, when was the last time Indiana had a senior class that completed 4 years, having never beaten Purdue? Think Deron and Devonte realize this? Think they even care?

 

[kkott]

I think Purdue wins their super bowl. Shoot out of their minds from three..

Well, I guess we need to start treating it like our Super Bowl then too, don't we? Something needs to change and I can tell you I'm tired of hearing that. If anybody should place extra importance on this, it's IU... PU has shown they do.

 

[Birnk403]

I think Purdue wins their super bowl. Shoot out of their minds from three..

Using the derisive “their Super Bowl” while they routinely kick our ass makes us look weak.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Well, I guess we need to start treating it like our Super Bowl then too, don't we? Something needs to change and I can tell you I'm tired of hearing that. If anybody should place extra importance on this, it's IU... PU has shown they do.

Good call out. Calling it their Super bowl is not a poor reflection on the IU fan saying it (that is just a shot at IU fans) but instead a reflection the PU fans for treating it that way. And, yes...until IU starts winning the games, perhaps we should as well?

 

[MikeHoncho69]

Speaking of which, when was the last time Indiana had a senior class that completed 4 years, having never beaten Purdue? Think Deron and Devonte realize this? Think they even care?

I don't think either particularly mind. De'Ron is from Colorado and Devonte is from New York. Neither likely appreciate the meaning of the rivalry. Devonte is all about Devonte, after all.

 

[kkott]

Good call out. Calling it their Super bowl is not a poor reflection on the IU fan saying it (that is just a shot at IU fans) but instead a reflection the PU fans for treating it that way. And, yes...until IU starts winning the games, perhaps we should as well?

No, it's a way of trying to lessen the importance to IU and trying to make it seem like they are beneath us, when the truth is, they've owned us to the point you can barely call it a rivalry anymore. As I said, if it's that important to them, then we need to make it that important to us too, or keep looking foolish.

I hope to hell the players hear from Archie "I'm f'ing tired of losing to Purdue..." cause I know I am.

 

[Birnk403]

No, it's a way of trying to lessen the importance to IU and trying to make it seem like they are beneath us, when the truth is, they've owned us to the point you can barely call it a rivalry anymore. As I said, if it's that important to them, then we need to make it that important to us too, or keep looking foolish.

I hope to hell the players hear from Archie "I'm f'ing tired of losing to Purdue..." cause I know I am.

Exactly. It’s the ready made, served in advance excuse if we don’t win, and it makes us look weak.

 

[Hoosier Manic]

Pain...

 

[Courtsensetwo]

No, it's a way of trying to lessen the importance to IU and trying to make it seem like they are beneath us, when the truth is, they've owned us to the point you can barely call it a rivalry anymore. As I said, if it's that important to them, then we need to make it that important to us too, or keep looking foolish.

I hope to hell the players hear from Archie "I'm f'ing tired of losing to Purdue..." cause I know I am.

We are basically saying the same thing. As grads we do like to think they are beneath us and in many aspects they are. That said, head to head we are currently beneath them... so as I said perhaps we need to put as much emphasis on the game as they do...but only for a little while . And I certainly never want to see IU fans embarrass themselves by chanting PU sucks during anything but a PU game. I love that PU students and grads do that and hope they never ever stop.

Tonight is one of the 8-10 I have missed up there since my first which was Soph year in Btown. Always a crazy atmosphere.

 

[4IUSox2]

A few weeks ago's game, TJD and Brunk were quickly/very effectively doubled EVERY TIME in the paint. I'm interested to see what counter IU has for that. Besides guards hitting a few 3's to beat that, the inside guys have just got to be stronger, more forceful with the ball in traffic than they were that day.

Sasha is a streaky shooter, not a great shooter. Keep him under wraps, not allowing their crowd to get frenzied. Tre needs to be bodied a lot further out, as he's killer on put backs and shots within 3 feet. Make the Northshore connection of Boudreau and Eastern take meaningful shots late in shot clock.

If ALL that happens, iu wins. If not, likelymore the usual at Mackey. Come on , Arch and team. Get it ready mentally. We know MP and his team will be.

 

[go_iu]

PU defends their home turf exceedingly well. IU's guards laid an egg, a rotten one, at AH when PU visited last.

But, the Indiana team is finally mostly healthy. PU has hit rock bottom and is sinking further. Phin is playing much better and getting assists. AD and DG are known commodities and do their thing at the right times. JS is starting to hit warp speed. and TJD is stellar but can't do otherwise.

The secret weapon is RT. shhhhh….

And Archie Miller actually has a team that has some parts he can work with. IU has played their way in to the NCAAT. That other team has just played their way out.

Let's just do this.



Indiana 74; Subaru Prep (PU) 64


As an aside...their board is in meltdown. B & G gear-wearing fans are saying that they couldn't win against any conference team just now. I think it will be a good game. I hope that IU plays tough on the road tonight.

I sense a closer game, but a loss nonetheless. It shouldn't be, we are FAR from a lock to the NCAAT, need at least two more W's. This is not a game to expect we can lose and damage the resume if it's lost bad.

 

[MikeHoncho69]

Archie ran a set against Minnesota in which the action would be initiated with Trayce Jackson-Davis with the ball at the top of the right wing. Rob Phinisee then screens for Joey Brunk at the top of the key, who receives the ball from TJD. At that time, Al Durham cuts through the paint up to TJD's location at the top of the right wing to spring him free. TJD then cuts hard directly to the block in a favorable, one-on-one post-up that resulted in a made hook shot.

Isolating Trayce beyond the three-point line eliminates the chance of teams sagging in order to key the double team.

Those are the types of sets we need to see consistently if a win is to be expected.

 

[Mackeyfan247]

We are basically saying the same thing. As grads we do like to think they are beneath us and in many aspects they are. That said, head to head we are currently beneath them... so as I said perhaps we need to put as much emphasis on the game as they do...but only for a little while . And I certainly never want to see IU fans embarrass themselves by chanting PU sucks during anything but a PU game. I love that PU students and grads do that and hope they never ever stop.

Tonight is one of the 8-10 I have missed up there since my first which was Soph year in Btown. Always a crazy atmosphere.

In many aspects we are beneath you? Lol

 

[Mackeyfan247]

I think Purdue wins their super bowl. Shoot out of their minds from three..

I guess we’ve won 9 of the last 10 Super Bowls then lol.

 

[h20pls]

IU 66 Subaru 59

I'm anticipating a slug-fest and a low scoring affair.

 

[SIhoosier26]

It's unfortunate that I have to pick against us again in a rivalry game, especially in a year where Purdue sucks. Unfortunately they've owned us recently and it's on the road.

Not looking good. Purdue 65 IU 58

 

[twenty02]

Predicting what this team will do is impossible. But we've not fared well at all in hostile environments. The Barn sounded like a funeral home. Mackey won't.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Those of you predicting a win don't follow history. We've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well. Zero chance we win unfortunately.