Play ball!

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'm saying Cubs-Nats in the NL and Tigers-Angels in the AL.

Cubs over Angels in the Series.

No joke.
This post was edited on 4/5 8:07 PM by TheOriginalHappyGoat

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Hate to rain on your parade

Cubs don't have a chance. They have improved but not enough to match the Pirates and the Cards. Those three will beat each other up all season. No wildcard from the NL Central. Make it the Cards.

The division with the least balance is NL West, Make it the Dodgers and Giants as winner and WC.

The NL East is awful. The Fish have recovered from 2012 and they win. Nats second WC.

I really like what Boston did over the winter. Boston and the O's winner and WC in no particular order

I really really like what the CWS have done. Every hole has been filled with pretty good quality. No significant injuries and they rule the Central.

I like the A's and A's (Athletics and Angels) in the west in no particular order.

Series, really a crap shoot. SF had everything click in last year's post season. Won't be lucky twice. Dodgers aren't as strong as before, I'm thinking Cards and CWS*

*Hell if you can pick the Cubs, I can go with the Sox.

 

[Sope Creek]

About the NL west . . .

the Padres may be the most changed team, and perhaps will be the most improved team, in the west. Today they picked up Craig Kimbrel . . . does that change anything from your perspective?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Here's the thing about the Cubs

They vastly underperformed in the second half of the season. Even holding pat, you'd expect improvement. But with the changes they made? They are going to hit contender status this season. Simply based on performance, they were a playoff-caliber team when the season ended last year. They've made enough changes to be for real.

goat

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Here's another thing about the cubs

John Lester. The clubs who go from mediorcre to contenders with an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket type free agent strategy are rare. A guy like Lester would help a good club become excellent but I don't think the Cubs were close to good. That 155 million could have gone a lot further spread out over lesser quality but more quantity. The "underperforming" comment is pretty standard from a fan who expects more. I don't like Fowler's game at all. He has good enough skills but he often mails it in. He is simply another piece of funiture in the club house.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

The Pads really helped themselves over the winter

I think they are close to the Giants and Dodgers and could easily displace one of them. With comparable teams, the importance of a closer is magnified. I don't know what the odds are for them making it to the series, but I think they are an interesting dark horse and Kimbrel makes them more interesting.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

No.....

I appreciate your opinion, but the "underperforming" comment is a statistical thing. The Cubs Pythagorean expectation was playoff level for the second half. That kind of underperformance historically doesn't last. Teams tend toward the mean, and the Cubs' mean last year was legit.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

They Did Not Underperform For The Second Half of the Season

they underperform for the second half of the century

its what they do

Babe Ruth wouldn't of hit 250 if he played in Chicago.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Maybe

A team seems to come from nowhere every year. See Royals. Teams must play each other. The AL central laid a collective egg in 2014. Do you see that for the NL Central? One of the reasons I like the CWS is that the AL central is still a poor division.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I've found that doesn't matter in the playoffs.

Your division doesn't matter when it counts.

I'm just saying, the Cubs performance last year was impressive, and even without the new manager and ace pitcher, was going to lead to good things this year.

Watch out, that's all I'm saying.

 

[RBB89]

The Cubs aren't going to win the WS.

It's the Cubs.

 

[NPT]

Cubs win it all????

Now I know you've been hitting the bottle heavily.

 

[Noodle]

the Cubs underperform EVERY year! that's what makes them the Cubs nm


nm

 

[Marvin the Martian]

meteorology

I have heard meteorologists say they are advised to be very careful in predicting record weather. The idea is to consider the likelihood that a fallible model is right compared to the likelihood something that has never happened before will happen. That doesn't mean never bet against the model. But there are 5 or 6 weather models, and you may love the Euro but if it is predicting the record and the others are not, stick with the others.

I see that case here. I have dabbled in saber for a long time. I started fantasy baseball in the mid 85 or so, basketball and football just after. I get the ideas that suggest the Cubs underperformed and they will regress to the mean. But.

When it comes to predicting teams I am a huge believer in system. Past success indicates future success. In college basketball, I don't care what talent indicates, I would take Wisconsin or Spartie will win B10 basketball title next year. As a result, until someone proves they can beat STL in the Central, the Cards will win the central.

Because Pittsburgh is good, past performance, and neither Cincy nor Cincinnati are terrible, a wild card out of the central will be difficult. I think the likelihood the Cubs come from out of the playoffs to WS champ is unlikely. I will take the Dodgers. They have been good for a while, I think they will take the next step.

Angels out of the AL. Same reason, they have been good long enough that they are ready for the next step. Much like fantasy baseball, draft a really good hitter about to turn 27.

The Cubs illustrate my problem with pro sports. I understand why they shipped Bryant down. Given the rules, it was the business decision they had to make. But that should not be a factor. The idea should be to field the best team. The meta game is ruining sports. In my dream world, the Cubs lose every game these first two weeks, then miss the playoffs by one game. I don't mind accountants using saber to put together the best teams, I don't want them intentionally not fielding the best team.

 

[Noodle]

the NL Central is brutal this year

While I do think the Reds are going to be better than most people think, they could win 85 games and still finish in 4th place.

In contrast, the NL East is a complete joke after the Nationals, and the NL West is average after the Dodgers. I think the NL Central will get at least one wild card spot despite the fact that they have to play each other nearly half of the season (76 games)--especially if one or two of the NL Central teams really tank.

 

[HoosierHomey]

Take me out...

If you get a chance go see the Hoosiers at Bart Kaufman Stadium, a nice ball park compared to old Sembower Field.

Here is a a quiz about players who only played for one team (although one of them will not be on the last now). I got 23 out of 26. Takes 6 minutes.

http://nowiknow.com/quizzes/mlb-players-who-only-played-for-one-team/

http://nowiknow.com/quizzes/mlb-players-who-only-played-for-one-team/

 

[Noodle]

That was an incredibly hard quiz, got only 12 of 26 nm


nm

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The Reds have a chance to be better

Votto being back and being Votto would go a long way to making them better. Bruce has to get back above .250. Anything below that and their offense will struggle. With Hamilton probably hitting 250 and Cozart struggling to hit anything, there is no more room for players who can't get on base. But a full year from Votto and Bruce hitting, they could push that 85 wins.

It seems like a team that could be pretty good, or really bad. The question is how long does it take the Reds to deal Cueto. I don't think they are going to risk him leaving with nothing back. That rotation, without him, would be very suspect.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

15 with an asterisk

I kept saying the Pirate name over and over again, but kept talking myself out of typing it. I want 15.5.

 

[Sope Creek]

My most common response . . .

"oh, hell, that's old what's his name . . . "

I'm old - 11/26 with 7 more I "knew" but couldn't remember the name - like Jeter, Kaline . . . and I spelled Gerhig wrong . . .

. . . unforgiveable.

 

[HoosierHomey]

Cubs fans are already P.O.ed ...

well at least the men.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/06/opening-night-at-wrigley-field-half-hour-bathroom-lines-and-dudes-peeing-in-corners/

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/06/opening-night-at-wrigley-field-half-hour-bathroom-lines-and-dudes-peeing-in-corners/

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I only got 10

Couple of forehead slappers, too. How could I miss Kaline?

 

[Noodle]

funny story


Years ago my family was playing a game called Facts in Five where there is a category, and you try to come up as many names or words in that category that are on the list within a certain amount of time. The category was "Famous Yankees." Answers which scored points included not only baseball players but also things like Yankee Doodle Dandy.

It's getting near the time limit, and my father blurts out "darn it, who's that guy who died of Lou Gehrig's Disease?" It took about a second or two, but the whole place erupted in non-stop laughter--so much so, that we couldn't even play the game any longer.

 

[HoosierHomey]

When the Dodgers game...

reaches the fifth inning today, then J Roll will be off that list. I missed Pee Wee, Gehringer, and Chipper. Kept thinking it was Matthews for the Braves for some odd reason and forgot that he finished out with Houston and Detroit.

 

[HoosierHomey]

That is funny but ..

also sad that the greatest first basemen ever is sometimes only remembered for the disease named after him.

 

[Sope Creek]

Figures that the Braves trade Heyward to St. Louis . . .

and he becomes Stan Musial against the Cubs on opening night.

 

[HoosierHomey]

Perhaps the most...

troubling thing for the Reds is that they have no bench. Skippy shouldn't even be a major league player at this point, and the rest of the scrubs can't get on base either. So if they don't stay healthy and any of the big four (Votto, Bruce, Mesaroco, and Frazier) have an off year, then I think they will be in trouble. And that doesn't even get into the fact that they waste one of the best arms in baseball as a closer instead of a starter.

 

[NPT]

FWIW I'd

love to see the Cubs win even though I'm not a Cubs fan but they always find some way to screw up their season.

 

[Bligedy]

Their bench is better than it has been in a while....

Boesch and Dominguez give them a lot more flexibility than they've had in a while. I actually like the bench. Negron can play 6 positions. Dominguez can play 5. Boesch can play all 3 outfield spots.

This group has more pop than we've seen in the past. I'm interested to see how it plays out.

From 1 to 25 they are better for sure.

 

[Fro]

They signed Lester to complement all their young players/prospects

Castro, Rizzo, Soler, Bryant, Russell, Baez are all under cheap team control until at least 2020. Schwarber's part of the next wave of talent after that.

They spent some money this season but it's part of a strategy to have a potentially very good team for the next decade. Adding Lester gives them a shot to make the playoffs this year and adds some veteran leadership. They still have plenty of money to spend down the road.

They traded for Fowler to fill the CF/leadoff spot this year and he's probably only here this year. His OBP is excellent and he's a definite upgrade over what they had.

This post was edited on 4/6 11:22 AM by Fro

 

[CO. Hoosier]

They need a proximity speller

the "spelling counts" requirement took me down a a few. 9. I could never get the right "B" for the strohs, but I knew it the answer had to begin with B. I did get the CWS correct on first try. I'll take that.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

I love facts in five.

Stilll have mine somewhere. I need to haul it out. That same company made an investing game which we also have but I don't remember the name. That was fun with a large group too.

BTW, who IS buried in Grant's tomb anyway?











This post was edited on 4/6 11:29 AM by CO. Hoosier

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Kris Bryant

What do you think of his contract hanky panky? Cubs playing by the rules but that could cost a guy like Bryant millions over his career.

 

[hoot1]

As an old CWS fan...

...who watches them secretly in the upstairs bedroom so my Cubs fan wife won't object, I constantly heard announcer Ken Harrelson complain about the White Sox relief pitchers last year.

CoH, what has been done to fill this hole?

 

[Noodle]

This is how you do Opening Day


A semi-official holiday in Cincinnati, with parade and all.

This post was edited on 4/6 12:47 PM by Noodle

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Well . . . . .

The Sox cleaned house in the BP, they added a quality closer, and they added a quality starter which should take pressure off of the relief pitching. It reamins to be seen how some of the new faces will perform, but I think it is safe to say they can't be any worse than the three they cast off.

Also, I really like Melky Cabrara in a Sox uniform. He's the ideal guy to hit in front of Abreu, Garcia and LaRoche + I think he will cause Eaton to see better pitches. More runs also takes pressure off of the pen.

 

[HoosierHomey]

As far as flexibility...

that is alright. But Boesch and Dominguez are both castoffs because they fail to walk, get on base, and strike out a lot. Not good for team that doesn't exactly crank out a ton of runs.

 

[Fro]

I think it makes business sense due to how the CBA is

You can leave him down for only 12 games and get an extra year of control. Bryant will still be a "Super 2" and be arbitration-eligible after 2017 so he'll get some extra money that way but obviously he would have gotten more being a free agent in 2020 versus 2021.

With Scott Boras as his agent a deal wasn't going to happen where the Cubs pay him guaranteed money now in exchange for a couple team option years added on to his contract. That would have been the ideal scenario to get him on the field now.

The math says leaving him down for a couple weeks should only be worth a fraction of a win, but the fan in me wanted him up on Opening Day, especially considering the early schedule is pretty tough.

Obviously Boras and the Union are raising a fuss about that, but that's something for the Union to negotiate in the next collective bargaining agreement. Bryant technically isn't a member of the Player's Union until he's on the 40-man roster.

I'd also like to see minor league players get paid some more. Nobody ought to be getting rich playing minor league ball but they could get paid double what they are getting now pretty easily.

This post was edited on 4/6 2:03 PM by Fro

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Avalon Hill was the company

I will guess Superstar Baseball game. Their war games though are what we mainly played as they made some excellent ones. They also made a game of deal making and back stabbing called Diplomacy. I remember the brochure had a quote of Henry Kissinger saying it was his favorite game.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

It is as if the Reds are anti-Moneyball

Last year they were next to last in BA and OBP. But they did strikeout a little below NL average. Now injuries are a part of their poor hitting. But they just don't seem to prioritize getting on base, and haven't for a while (see Dunn, Adam). They also like to run too much, they stole a lot of bases but were 10th in the NL in success %. If you have trouble getting runners on, getting them thrown out is a really bad idea. I think Hamilton has to run, see the balk today, but the rest of the team should be very careful in choosing spots.