Path to CFB Playoff

76-1

All-American
Mar 22, 2017
7,384
10,642
113
Indiana
Path to CFB Playoff

1. Indiana beats Purdue
2. Ohio St - Michigan doesn't happen
3. Big Ten makes Championship game Ohio St - Indiana
4. Indiana beats Ohio St
5. Notre Dame beats Clemson again

Playoff:
1) Alabama vs 4) Texas A&M
2) Notre Dame vs 3) Indiana

#iufb #LEO

Sounds nice but I highly doubt that the powers that be in the Big Ten will let us have another shot at "The" Ohio $tate...

Remember the entire Big Ten season happened just to get the worthless nuts in the National Championship mix... No way they give the only TEAM in the Big Ten to give the Bucks a serious scare a second shot at destroying their National Championship run before it even begins...

The only part of your scenario that I really care about is #1...😉

Beat purdue!!!!! 🇺🇸😀🇺🇸
 

h20pls

Senior
Jun 12, 2002
2,681
1,473
113
Sounds nice but I highly doubt that the powers that be in the Big Ten will let us have another shot at "The" Ohio $tate...

Remember the entire Big Ten season happened just to get the worthless nuts in the National Championship mix... No way they give the only TEAM in the Big Ten to give the Bucks a serious scare a second shot at destroying their National Championship run before it even begins...

It pains me to say this...but 76-1 is absolutely right here folks...

(It doesn't pain me because it's 76-1 saying it. Lol. I'm a 76 fan. It pains me because grown -up people would do this to "kids"...)
 

still4IU

Freshman
Sep 7, 2001
639
485
63
Another
Path to CFB Playoff

1. Indiana beats Purdue
2. Ohio St - Michigan doesn't happen
3. Big Ten makes Championship game Ohio St - Indiana
4. Indiana beats Ohio St
5. Notre Dame beats Clemson again

Playoff:
1) Alabama vs 4) Texas A&M
2) Notre Dame vs 3) Indiana

#iufb #LEO
Another reason the playoffs should be 8 teams.
Power 5 champions and then 3 at-large.
 

CC Mac

All-Big Ten
Aug 19, 2002
3,482
2,780
113
Ohio State is better than us,not sure I want another game with them.
However,I believe we are second best team in the conference THIS year.
I can’t even believe I’m typing that,let’s beat PUke and Iowa.
If we can pull that off,it looks like a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.
Wouldn’t that be a sight to behold?
 

Chriselli

All-Big Ten
Nov 27, 2001
3,475
1,800
113
ESPN give us a 17% chance. IMO, our best chance is, we beat Purdue and Iowa and...
Cincinnati loses one of the two games they're about to play vs. Tulsa
Florida loses to Alabama
Iowa State loses to Oklahoma
Texas A&M loses to Ole Miss or Tennessee
Clemson loses to Notre Dame
Ohio State beats Northwestern
 

Chriselli

All-Big Ten
Nov 27, 2001
3,475
1,800
113
LOL. None of these scenarios are remotely coming true. Plus, Iowa will be a tough game. They have won 5 in a row and have been dominating. That game will be a war.
Tulsa is a really good team and will beat Cincinnati this time or next. Alabama will beat Florida. Oklahoma will beat Iowa State. Ohio State will beat Northwestern. Notre Dame already beat Clemson once. Texas A&M losing is probably the longest shot, but they do have a choking pedigree.
 

staxawax

Redshirt
Aug 12, 2005
101
55
28
Tulsa is a really good team and will beat Cincinnati this time or next. Alabama will beat Florida. Oklahoma will beat Iowa State. Ohio State will beat Northwestern. Notre Dame already beat Clemson once. Texas A&M losing is probably the longest shot, but they do have a choking pedigree.
Comparative scores and Sagarin don't give Tulsa much of a chance. If they do it would need to be this week. The 2nd one there's too much riding on a let down.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vesuvius13

MMcCormick

Benchwarmer
Dec 7, 2004
200
313
63
I am not sold Ohio State this year. A more realistic path is Ohio State plays michigan and the weather is 40 and rainy and they it affects their passing game, and they have a few turnovers and lose that game. It could happen. Indiana still probably does not get in, but that would make it interesting.
 

ElMeson

Freshman
Dec 13, 2011
405
480
63
29
I am not sold Ohio State this year. A more realistic path is Ohio State plays michigan and the weather is 40 and rainy and they it affects their passing game, and they have a few turnovers and lose that game. It could happen. Indiana still probably does not get in, but that would make it interesting.

If the goal is to get in the CFP, we need OSU to keep winning. What they did at Michigan St minus 23 players and 4 coaches was impressive. A 40 point win on the road against a team that just gave N.Western their first loss. Regardless, I think our hope would be Alabama, ND and OSU win big. We thump Purdue and Iowa, well we will definitely be in the conversation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vesuvius13

MMcCormick

Benchwarmer
Dec 7, 2004
200
313
63
If the goal is to get in the CFP, we need OSU to keep winning. What they did at Michigan St minus 23 players and 4 coaches was impressive. A 40 point win on the road against a team that just gave N.Western their first loss. Regardless, I think our hope would be Alabama, ND and OSU win big. We thump Purdue and Iowa, well we will definitely be in the conversation.
I forgot we don't jump OSU if they lose.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chriselli

IUNY

Benchwarmer
Sep 8, 2013
320
161
43
Having watched Alabama this year, I don't think any team has a chance against them. OSU probably matches up best against them at the line of scrimmage. Sure it would be great to make the CFP, but we would have a better chance of maybe winning the whole thing next season if everything goes our way and all our key players return. As far as a rematch with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, I think it's an interesting premise, but then could you really say the conference has East and West divisions? (I know, it's 2020 and all, different rules.) I'm not too concerned about Purdue, although Rondale Moore is on the team. I am, however, a little worried about Iowa. They seem to be getting better each week, and they are physical upfront, similar to Wisconsin. Let's say we go 8-1. If any traditional Big Ten power other than us went 8-1, you know there would be more arguments to get them in the playoffs. But let's look at how the next two weeks can move us up from No. 8. One thing we should be hoping for is for some of the undefeated teams to lose. If Cincy loses one of two to Tulsa, we will move past them. Clemson, especially with Trevor Lawrence back, can beat Notre Dame, giving them their first loss, although we still wouldn't be able to jump over them. Florida probably will end up with two losses. Texas A&M plays Mississippi (4-4), which scored 48 points against Alabama earlier this year, so some hope there. So if we went 8-1 and all these other things happened, we could conceivably finish No. 5 in the country before the bowl games. For IU football, that would be phenomenal. Also, in hindsight, that road win against Wisconsin was rankings gold. They still looked like a typical Wisconsin team, so to slug it out with them and come out the victor, one of the greatest wins in recent IU history.
 

Army88

Sophomore
Gold Member
Jul 7, 2012
802
818
93
If the goal is to get in the CFP, we need OSU to keep winning. What they did at Michigan St minus 23 players and 4 coaches was impressive. A 40 point win on the road against a team that just gave N.Western their first loss. Regardless, I think our hope would be Alabama, ND and OSU win big. We thump Purdue and Iowa, well we will definitely be in the conversation.
Or, if Clemson squashes ND, then the first ND/Clemson is written off (ie., no T Lawrence).
In the end, o$u winning big helps our story.
I agree with HoosiersRising & IUNY: win a New Year 6 game (in Florida) this year and Nat Champ next year
 

IndyIUFan66

All-Big Ten
Gold Member
Jun 23, 2013
3,408
6,326
113
Or, if Clemson squashes ND, then the first ND/Clemson is written off (ie., no T Lawrence).
In the end, o$u winning big helps our story. I agree with HoosiersRising: win a New Year 6 game (in Florida) this year and Nat Champ next year
IU would do great to be in a 1/1 bowl, get most everybody back, and next year be more ready to take on an Alabama or Clemson in final 4. Those two are true thoroughbreds. (And yes OSU is as well and we will need to slay that dragon ahead too!)
 

mobilehoosier

Junior
Nov 17, 2012
1,881
3,038
113
Mobile, Alabama
OSU doesn’t want us except we are their best win by far. Our record helps them. They would rather play NW. they will run it up. If Michigan can’t go don’t be surprised if another opponent appears to get the sixth game. That’s my guess. OSU will find a game. Go Hoosiers!
 

daddyhoosier

Freshman
Aug 31, 2019
447
1,298
93
Again not a prediction but the goal was to get in the Playoff, not to get IU ranked higher. Different things. Here is my logic.

Alabama is in even if they lose to Florida. I mean I guess if they lose 63-0 or something but doubt that's happening.

Notre Dame is probably in even if they lose to Clemson.

If Clemson beats Notre Dame they are in but if they lose again that opens up a spot.

I don't really agree with the idea that Ohio State continuing to win helps Indiana. I mean sure it makes the close loss look better but if they keep winning they are in. They aren't going to put Ohio State and Indiana in. I don't see Michigan or Northwestern having anything for Ohio St. In the crossover week if Indiana beats Northwestern and Iowa beats Ohio State we're still floating around 5th or 6th. The only way to get enough juice to jump into the Top 4 would be IU winning a rematch with the Nuts in the Big Ten Championship game.

I've been saying for a week that if the Big Ten is going to change the rule so that they can get the 'best team' in the Championship why not just select the two best teams - Indiana and Ohio St. I've seem some others saying this too. It may not succeed but making this argument is our best shot.

If we beat Ohio St we jump Cincinnati plus they have to beat Tulsa twice which will be difficult. Florida will most likely lose to Alabama. In my scenario Clemson and Ohio St drop out and Indiana and A&M slide in.

Of course Ohio St - Michigan could still happen rendering all of this moot. The point of the exercise was to see if there was a path for IU and this is the best I could come up with. That 17 percent chance sounds about right lol.
 
Last edited:

daddyhoosier

Freshman
Aug 31, 2019
447
1,298
93
Was just having a little fun with it and stated that it wasn't a prediction. Obviously Iowa is the most likely outcome and they are playing well. You did forget to mention you picked Wisconsin to win the West 😋
 
  • Like
Reactions: vesuvius13

Giant32

Recruit
Gold Member
Feb 17, 2019
55
157
33
DaddyHoosier....couple of issues with your post above. You say that there is no way the CFP will take both O$U and IU. But most everyone else believes that the only possible way for IU to get in is if CFP takes both. Your argument hinges on a potential rematch of O$U and IU in BIG championship.......why would the conference disregard divisions and take a 1 loss IU team that has already played O$U instead of a 1 loss NW team that hasn't played them yet? No way that is happening. Only way the BIG would even consider a rematch would be in Wisconsin beats NW this week.

Secondly, we need to root for a ND win over Clemson. No chance that the CFP committee takes 1 loss IU over 1 loss ND or 1 loss Clemson.

I initially thought that we had no chance. Someone did make a plausible argument for a Final Four of Bama, ND, O$U and IU. That included Cincy losing once, IU beating PU and either NW/Iowa, ND over Clem again, Bama over Florida, AND the hard part, a Texas A&M loss. That is the only potential way.
 

daddyhoosier

Freshman
Aug 31, 2019
447
1,298
93
Hey @Giant32, thank you for your thoughts. Your scenario at the end appears to be a cleaner path that doesn't involve relying on the Big Ten doing something they probably aren't going to do. I did say twice in this thread that it wasn't a prediction and also that our appeal to play in the Championship probably wouldn't succeed. There are people out there making an argument for it though - Joel Klatt for example and he's no Indiana homer. You say there's no way Indiana - Ohio St part II is happening as though I haven't already acknowledged that it's unlikely.

I'm also not sure why you are saying the Notre Dame - Clemson thing is a problem with my scenario. I said plainly that Notre Dame has to beat Clemson because if Clemson wins they are both in.

So although you have mischaracterized my position a couple times your ultimate argument is correct I concede. It's more plausible but still not all that likely. I think Clemson will beat Notre Dame and, as you say, A&M losing to Ole Miss is a reach. (Tennessee? lol)

I believe IU could jump Cincy with a win over Iowa even if the Bearcats beat Tulsa twice. Not guaranteeing it would happen but certainly possible.

Anyway it's Bucket Week now so the focus is on beating Purdue!

#LEO

p.s. I tweeted your scenario as a cleaner path!
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Palmbeachhoosier

Pazhoosier85

Benchwarmer
Oct 30, 2012
320
811
93
Who has Notre Dame beaten other than Clemson without Lawrence and several defensive players that makes people think they will get in with 1 loss if Clemson beats them? The ACC is filled with a bunch of weak teams and Clemson.
 

Tsnider30

Freshman
Apr 5, 2019
409
1,058
93
I dont think it matters what happens in the big 12. If the committee put a 2 loss big 12 team in over a 1 loss big ten, sec, or pac 12 team i think there will be riots
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chriselli

turney333

All-Big Ten
Sep 20, 2006
3,731
2,399
113
I initially thought that we had no chance. Someone did make a plausible argument for a Final Four of Bama, ND, O$U and IU. That included Cincy losing once, IU beating PU and either NW/Iowa, ND over Clem again, Bama over Florida, AND the hard part, a Texas A&M loss. That is the only potential way.

And even if all that happens, I’d still say that there’s is at best a 1 in 3 chance IU gets in.

in the end, it’s just crazy and enjoyable that we can even have these conversations
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: daddyhoosier

turney333

All-Big Ten
Sep 20, 2006
3,731
2,399
113
There is no way they make IU-OSU the Big Ten championship game. If OSU-Mich doesn't happen and they still decide to put OSU in the game, then they will play the winner of the West.

Well, if NW has a COVID outbreak in the next week, I think they might consider an IU-OSU game
 

Army88

Sophomore
Gold Member
Jul 7, 2012
802
818
93
Or, if Clemson squashes ND, then the first ND/Clemson is written off (ie., no T Lawrence).
In the end, o$u winning big helps our story.
I agree with HoosiersRising & IUNY: win a New Year 6 game (in Florida) this year and Nat Champ next year
With 8:00to go, is ND’s 34-10 ”SQUASH“ loss to Clemson, worse than Ta&m’s 54-24 loss to Alabama? And can you forget ND win against Clemson earlier without T Lawrence?
Or is IU at 42-35 loss to Osu better than both?
 
  • Like
Reactions: TominDallas

TominDallas

Junior
Gold Member
Oct 30, 2012
1,100
2,352
113
LOL. Mine too. I just don’t want IU to get screwed (and have to play Alabama in DETROIT)
You and others have laid out some really good data points and reasoning and I like reading them and enjoy the anticipation of it all.

Cannot wait for the selection to be over and know where we are going.

If we play in Florida I think that will be great for the players and their families that are from that area of the country.

If we play in Tempe - they will be able to say they played in a NY6 bowl.

Both have positives...hopefully being viewed as a good thing no matter where they play.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 76-1 and red hornet