Our opponent in the BTT: UM, Minny or NW.

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'm running through the possibilities, and I think those are the only three. Minny is by far the most likely.

I don't really have any more exciting analytics topics to talk about, so I'll just post the current numbers. Remember, these represent how much a team would win by against a perfectly average B1G team* on a neutral court:


Wiscy 9.90
OSU 6.53
Iowa 5.06
MSU 4.66
PU 2.54
Mary 0.58
Ind 0.43
Ill -0.11
Minny -0.99
UM -2.74
PSU -4.02
NW -4.14
Neb -5.80
RU -11.91

As you can see, the numbers are pretty close to the final standings, but with some various deviations. These are the result of 1) luck and 2) uneven scheduling. Probably mostly the latter, to be honest with you, as the actual luck ratings are actually very small - OSU (unlucky) and Maryland (lucky) are the only teams whose luck ratings add up to more than a single game in the standings. Generally speaking, if a team is higher in this list than they are in the standings, then consider them underrated going into the BTT.

Bets for tomorrow:

Not sure why, but the numbers are coming out well different than Vegas. I'm on a hot streak lately. I think I've won my last 6 or 7 bets. Here are the bets you should make:

MSU pk
Iowa -11.5
Purdue -4.5
Michigan -9.5

Should have actually bet MSU at +1 yesterday. I told you guys it would move. Bad on my part for being too tentative on the Dawson thing.

goat

* "Perfectly average" means both perfectly average in quality and perfectly average in pace.

 

[iubhounds]

That's interesting info. I didn't realize nor understand the -1 IU favored until I looked at Sagarin showing a rating of:

IU 86.93
MSU 86.82

Of course his numbers include the total season and not adding in players not playing due to injury. IU isn't as bad as they were in E. Lansing but they may not be as good as they were against Maryland.

Should be an interesting game while it sounds like CTC has been preaching the "us against the world" theme.



This post was edited on 3/7 6:22 AM by iubhounds

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

One thing my predictions don't account for...

...and I don't think Sagarin's do, either, is that different teams have different track records at home. IU has been weak at home lately, and MSU has been absolutely otherworldly on the road this B1G season. My ratings have MSU at a raw 1 point favorite, anyway, but coupled with that, I think they are the safe bet.

 

[iubhounds]

Re: One thing my predictions don't account for...

I agree with that bet. Teams cannot just flip the switch on for one game ... no matter where they play. They might get hot and shoot the lights out, but the past few games don't show that .. only Minny and Maryland ... forget Rutgers. MSU will play hard because their coach coaches hard, he doesn't let up. The team might be off on occasion but Izzo does not let up.

I don't see a close game today....but that might be my horse racing analysis showing up.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

That sounds about right.

I hate to say it, but I think we lose by at least 10.

 

[iubhounds]

Re: That sounds about right.

I was thinking 8 at a minimum and a lot more if IU gives up again in this game, like Iowa.

 

[EAGLE D]

Re: About time for to hit on all cylinders again.

Nt
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[iubhounds]

Talk is cheap lets see some results

Not saying your talk but the talk I continue to hear in interviews like a broken record. I want to see a team play with some desire. I want to see JBjr play like he cares instead of nonchalant. I want to see a coach sub only when someone gets in foul trouble and not when someone is playing good ball and hitting shots.

I want to see some effort.

Will their hitting 3'd determine their mindset??