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Officially canceled season. Well, "delayed...

Pigalow

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Nov 8, 2012
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until spring", but that's not going to happen either. We'll see if basketball can be played, I think it's more likely, & I'm more concerned about IU's women's season than the men's. They're primed for their best season ever, & it would be a tremendous loss if we can't play.
 
until spring", but that's not going to happen either. We'll see if basketball can be played, I think it's more likely, & I'm more concerned about IU's women's season than the men's. They're primed for their best season ever, & it would be a tremendous loss if we can't play.
In all reality, I don't see why they can't play in the spring and basketball can't start in mid January. As we are seeing now the virus is still present in terms of numbers of sick, but the death rate is dropping tremendously. It's too soon to know if things are going to stay this way or not, but for now it's encouraging. Getting through late fall and into winter will tell the tale in my mind. If things continue to progress downward, I see no reason why spring football can't be played, and conference basketball can be modified to allow games to be played. Just going to have to wait and see.
 
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Spring football can't happen if the focus is on players health as playing two season in one year isn't physically safe for players.
100% safety is unattainable. At some point, to play anything, you have assume risk factors and play. In football, you play even though you know that you are one hit away from paralysis or even in some cases, death, and one game away from getting hit in the head so much, you'll have lasting effects with memory or all kinds of other ailments. While the body would get beat up, kids would play year round if they could.
 
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The colleges and the players are gonna have to sit down and apportion the risk in order to resume play. There will be a players organization that will collectively bargain with the NCAA and the colleges.

The schools will get a waiver of liability from the players in return for payments in the case of sickness or death, compensation for images/likenesses, and other financial considerations.

May as well take the year off and work on that stuff.
 
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In all reality, I don't see why they can't play in the spring and basketball can't start in mid January. As we are seeing now the virus is still present in terms of numbers of sick, but the death rate is dropping tremendously. It's too soon to know if things are going to stay this way or not, but for now it's encouraging. Getting through late fall and into winter will tell the tale in my mind. If things continue to progress downward, I see no reason why spring football can't be played, and conference basketball can be modified to allow games to be played. Just going to have to wait and see.
I'm sorry Crossfire, but spring football isn't going to happen. I would have to disagree that things are encouraging with the virus. The death rate has been greatly reduced for a long time now, & it's had zero impact(positively)on public & professional perception of the pandemic, & tbh, a 2%(approximately)death rate--while far better than 5+%--is still way too high for such a contagious virus. & between now & spring, I think it's highly, highly unlikely the situation will improve to the point which will allow the B1G presidents to feel comfortable in terms of liability, which is the reason for the season being canceled, make no mistake about that. Also too though, if we were to play in the spring, what about the following season? Football is too physically demanding a sport to play 2 seasons in 1 calendar year, actually it would be much less than a year. More like 9 months. At least that's my take on the subject, but I tell you, as I said, it's not going to matter anyway, because we will not play this spring. The Commish threw that out there as a bone to the teams & fans & I suspect they have no intentions of even considering playing in the spring. I would advise everyone to not get their hopes up, honestly. It will just result in more disappointment, unless we get a miracle.
 
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Do you want to pick which kid, coach or staffer dies so we can watch football?

One could argue that football itself is more dangerous to these kids than covid and it probably is. I know many former D1 football players who suffer from fairly serious issues related to their football days. I assume you've heard of CTE. Do you fly on passenger jets? Can airlines guarantee that there jets will never crash?

There is a great chance that not a single player would die and the statistics back this up.. Most of the big European soccer leagues just finished up nearly 2 months of their season and not a single player or coach or trainer or announcer died.

Shutting down fall football is a decision made in fear. The SEC and Big 12 will play this fall and covid will have little impact on them.

Some may think it insensitive to talk about money but the financial ramifications of not playing this fall will be huge, painful and far reaching.

The kids would have had the option to opt out you know.
 
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One could argue that football itself is more dangerous to these kids than covid and it probably is. I know many former D1 football players who suffer from fairly serious issues related to their football days. I assume you've heard of CTE. Do you fly on passenger jets? Can airlines guarantee that there jets will never crash?

There is a great chance that not a single player would die and the statistics back this up.. Most of the big European soccer leagues just finished up nearly 2 months of their season and not a single player or coach or trainer or announcer died.

Shutting down fall football is a decision made in fear. The SEC and Big 12 will play this fall and covid will have little impact on them.

Some may think it insensitive to talk about money but the financial ramifications of not playing this fall will be huge, painful and far reaching.

The kids would have had the option to opt out you know.
I've read the "football is more dangerous than Covid" argument probably 50 times on this board over the last five months, and I scratch my head every time. Here's the deal. CTE isn't contagious. Orthopedic injuries aren't contagious. It's impossible for guys playing football to maintain any kind of physical distance. In fact, quite the contrary, they're literally inches from each other's faces, breathing hard, coughing, talking, etc. The virus will spread rapidly from player to player and team to team. And these kids don't live in - - and they won't play in - - a bubble. They're going to transmit the disease to a coach, or a student with diabetes who lives across the hall, or someone who has overcome childhood cancer but is still immunocompromised. Playing football right now, in the midst of an uncontrolled pandemic, is a really bad idea.
 
I'm sorry Crossfire, but spring football isn't going to happen. I would have to disagree that things are encouraging with the virus. The death rate has been greatly reduced for a long time now, & it's had zero impact(positively)on public & professional perception of the pandemic, & tbh, a 2%(approximately)death rate--while far better than 5+%--is still way too high for such a contagious virus. & between now & spring, I think it's highly, highly unlikely the situation will improve to the point which will allow the B1G presidents to feel comfortable in terms of liability, which is the reason for the season being canceled, make no mistake about that. Also too though, if we were to play in the spring, what about the following season? Football is too physically demanding a sport to play 2 seasons in 1 calendar year, actually it would be much less than a year. More like 9 months. At least that's my take on the subject, but I tell you, as I said, it's not going to matter anyway, because we will not play this spring. The Commish threw that out there as a bone to the teams & fans & I suspect they have no intentions of even considering playing in the spring. I would advise everyone to not get their hopes up, honestly. It will just result in more disappointment, unless we get a miracle.

the death rate on this isn’t 2%......
 
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I've read the "football is more dangerous than Covid" argument probably 50 times on this board over the last five months, and I scratch my head every time. Here's the deal. CTE isn't contagious. Orthopedic injuries aren't contagious. It's impossible for guys playing football to maintain any kind of physical distance. In fact, quite the contrary, they're literally inches from each other's faces, breathing hard, coughing, talking, etc. The virus will spread rapidly from player to player and team to team. And these kids don't live in - - and they won't play in - - a bubble. They're going to transmit the disease to a coach, or a student with diabetes who lives across the hall, or someone who has overcome childhood cancer but is still immunocompromised. Playing football right now, in the midst of an uncontrolled pandemic, is a really bad idea.

They would transmit the flu in the exact same manner to the exact same types of people which could have potentially deadly consequences for said people....so permanent shut down of all activities right?
 
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They would transmit the flu in the exact same manner to the exact same types of people which could have potentially deadly consequences for said people....so permanent shut down of all activities right?
Breaking News. There's a vaccine for flu.
 
Again.... it’s not the deaths, it’s the heart issue that is driving this.
You don't even know if there is a 'heart issue'. You have 1 tweet from a concerned mom that MAYBE there's an issue.

If you come off of a serious illness, is all your blood work going to come back perfect? No. It takes time to recover.

And of course the deaths aren't the issue. They're going down all over the US and people in that age group have a lower death rate than the flu. How else can you ruin the economy if you focus on something that is improving?

This is how panic is spread.
 
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What's the death rate for kids between 18-22?

A study in late June said between 3-7 players could pass away using the metrics that were available. It swiftly dropped to just over 1. As of yesterday it was down to .18-.37. Meaning, well under the odds of anyone dying and on par with an on the field d3ath in practice. Our info changed that drastically in a little over a month using updated data. People, I am wearing my mask and I understand their is SOME inherent risks involved but every single day we have risks. When we drive our car, fly in a plane, walk outside.....our lives are based on risks because we are taking them with ever decision we make. Every tackle, drop back pass, risks abound.

At this point, the statistics are bringing this diseases impact down so drastically its becoming a bit mind numbing. We have 3 times the number of infections and 1/3rd the number of deaths? So its either becoming less powerful or its already swept through our country and our testing is just getting better. This coming from someone who leans more left than right when it comes to the state of IN.
 
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You don't even know if there is a 'heart issue'. You have 1 tweet from a concerned mom that MAYBE there's an issue.

If you come off of a serious illness, is all your blood work going to come back perfect? No. It takes time to recover.

And of course the deaths aren't the issue. They're going down all over the US and people in that age group have a lower death rate than the flu. How else can you ruin the economy if you focus on something that is improving?

This is how panic is spread.
"1 tweet from a concerned mom?" Lol. How about JAMA Cardiology, friend?! You need to read more.
Puntmann VO, Carerj ML, Wieters I, et al. Outcomes of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in patients recently recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Cardiol.
 
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the death rate on this isn’t 2%......
How do you calculate the death rate?

CDC says there are 163,651 deaths among 5,119,711 cases in the USA. A death rate per case of 3.2%.

Indiana State Department of Health says there have been 77,565 cases and 2,898 deaths. A death rate of 3.7%

That's probably not an accurate number because the first several months of testing being so limited resulted in a serious under count of total cases. How much of an under count is a guess.

I've seen people sport the 99.96% survival rate by using deaths as a percentage of total population. But that's a useless statistic because it's just another way of expressing the total number of case deaths but framed in a way to minimize it.

More importantly, expressing the death rate as a percentage of the total population in no way explains your likelihood of dying if infected. Example, with 163k deaths, we've lost 0.04% of our population. If that number is 330k at the end of the year, we've lost 0.1% of our population. If 3.3M end up dying, we've lost 1% of our population. Did the deaths/infection change with any of those scenarios, probably not. It's just a different expression of total deaths. The ONLY way deaths as a proportion of population is a useful statistic is if everyone is infected.

Let me put it another way, let's say a small town is wiped out by same terrible super deadly infectious disease. Like 15k out of a population of 18k. So far it's contained and hasn't spread to other cities. Do we say the hypothetical disease is no big deal because a TINY TINY percentage of Americans have died? No. Does it have a 0.0004% death rate? No, it has like an 80% death rate. It's just that the other 330,000,982 Americans haven't been infected.
 
How do you calculate the death rate?

CDC says there are 163,651 deaths among 5,119,711 cases in the USA. A death rate per case of 3.2%.

Indiana State Department of Health says there have been 77,565 cases and 2,898 deaths. A death rate of 3.7%

That's probably not an accurate number because the first several months of testing being so limited resulted in a serious under count of total cases. How much of an under count is a guess.

I've seen people sport the 99.96% survival rate by using deaths as a percentage of total population. But that's a useless statistic because it's just another way of expressing the total number of case deaths but framed in a way to minimize it.

More importantly, expressing the death rate as a percentage of the total population in no way explains your likelihood of dying if infected. Example, with 163k deaths, we've lost 0.04% of our population. If that number is 330k at the end of the year, we've lost 0.1% of our population. If 3.3M end up dying, we've lost 1% of our population. Did the deaths/infection change with any of those scenarios, probably not. It's just a different expression of total deaths. The ONLY way deaths as a proportion of population is a useful statistic is if everyone is infected.

Let me put it another way, let's say a small town is wiped out by same terrible super deadly infectious disease. Like 15k out of a population of 18k. So far it's contained and hasn't spread to other cities. Do we say the hypothetical disease is no big deal because a TINY TINY percentage of Americans have died? No. Does it have a 0.0004% death rate? No, it has like an 80% death rate. It's just that the other 330,000,982 Americans haven't been infected.

Well first we have to understand those statistics although good to obtain, also are far far far from accurate. I don't think there is malicious intent or anything political but I know people who most certainly had the disease but were young and not needing the ER so they were denied testing. This was in April. The clinical trials in IN showed only 1/3rd of the positive cases in IN were likely accounted for. The deaths are ALL accounted for and in some cases are inflated. The infections are what are missing and if we are missing 1/3rd of those, multiply that 5.1 mil times 3. And that multiplier of 3 is just in IN which hasn't been hit as hard as places like NY were. So its likely their multiplier was even higher.

Again, I am not looking to belittle where we are but as we move along and continue to get more and more accurate data with the improved testing capabilities, the numbers are changing drastically in favor of "not as bad". It just is.
 
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Those aren't all new. Many of them are backlogged. Sometimes months back.
Everything is backlogged to a certain extent. Mondays & Tuesdays are the "biggest" days becasue the weekeneds are the "smallest", because so many health pro's are off weekends, cases & deaths from Sat/Sun are reported 1st if the week. So, everyone just accepts that this is the way it is. Also too though, when's the last time you saw a list of positive antibody test results? They don't exist, which means they are reported as "new cases" when they are discovered. So,the new cases reported each day aren't necessarily representing the actual new cases from the previous day, sometimes far from it. Over time trends even out though. Death totals have inevitably climbed, they lag 1-2 weeks, so before long they'll begin to decrease a bit as cases have begun to decrease in the hardest hit areas. Most frustratingly. we're going through our worst right now because--inexplicably--when it was clear, 2 months ago, that the warmest areas of the US were spiking(it wasn't hard to see where), we didn't issue a quarantine order for anyone entering Indiana from hot spots, which should have a no brainer, but I digress...
 
Well first we have to understand those statistics although good to obtain, also are far far far from accurate. I don't think there is malicious intent or anything political but I know people who most certainly had the disease but were young and not needing the ER so they were denied testing. This was in April. The clinical trials in IN showed only 1/3rd of the positive cases in IN were likely accounted for. The deaths are ALL accounted for and in some cases are inflated. The infections are what are missing and if we are missing 1/3rd of those, multiply that 5.1 mil times 3. And that multiplier of 3 is just in IN which hasn't been hit as hard as places like NY were. So its likely their multiplier was even higher.

Again, I am not looking to belittle where we are but as we move along and continue to get more and more accurate data with the improved testing capabilities, the numbers are changing drastically in favor of "not as bad". It just is.
No doubt there's an under count of total cases. I admitted as much. But we're making guesses about how much of an under count.

The conspiracy theories about significant over count of deaths really irritates me. Because it's based on anecdote and, quite frankly, a misunderstanding of how causes of death are determined. Like let's say I've got hemophilia and get a nasty cut. A perfectly healthy person would live through it, but I bleed out and die. What's my cause of death? It's reasonable to say laceration and blood loss, because that's technically accurate, but it was the hemophilia that killed me. Or let's say I'm in a motorcycle crash and break some ribs, makes it hard to breathe but is otherwise recoverable. But during my recovery I catch COVID and die. Why did I die? Was it the motorcycle accident? To the extent that it affected my ability to breathe yes, but it would be an accurate statement but for the onset of COVID pneumonia I would have lived and THAT is a legitimate cause of death. Another example would be to ask how many people you know that have died of cancer. My father in law died last year after a battle with leukemia. But he technically died of pneumonia while he was fighting. But labeling his death as cancer caused is accurate and not fudging the numbers.

All you have to do to see that we're actually under counting COVID deaths is go to the CDC page for excess deaths in the USA. These people watch this kind of thing. They have a pretty good idea (within a margin of error) how many people are going to die in the country week-to-week. It's pretty consistent. In 2020, the USA has over 200,000 excess deaths from what would be normally expected. That's a lot closer to the real death toll.

A final consideration we should all think about is how much better our treatment is today than in March because the doctors have learned so much about how to treat. We're averaging like 1,300 deaths/day now. At our worst it was about 2,500. I would argue that if we were still using the care used in March, that 1,300 figure would certainly be higher, maybe as high as 2,000/day total. But regardless of how many hundreds more per day that they're saving, that's hundreds more that are pulling through after a serious hospitalization and with unknown long term effects.

Like many things in life, this stuff is complicated and there are no easy answers.
 
Let’s not forget that not only did Babe Ruth lead the league in homers in 1918, he won 13 games as a pitcher, as well as TWO World Series games. At the height of the Spanish Flu. Despite contracting the Spanish Flu. Twice.
 
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Let’s not forget that not only did Babe Ruth lead the league in homers in 1918, he won 13 games as a pitcher, as well as TWO World Series games. At the height of the Spanish Flu. Despite contracting the Spanish Flu. Twice.
BTW(OT), until...now, the lockdown, I had no idea what BayernFan eluded to, but I watched them(Bayern Munich)when I was home constantly & starved for sports, & they are a BADASS soccer team. Ehem, I mean Futbol team. I've never been a soccer fan, but you know top notch athletes & professional sporting action when you see it. Lewandowski, Muller, those dudes are unstoppable. I must find a way to watch their match vs FC Barcelona. What a matchup. I recently got rid of my sports package(due to being laid off...)& no longer get the channel which is showing this tourney. Maybe I'll reup now.
 
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No doubt there's an under count of total cases. I admitted as much. But we're making guesses about how much of an under count.

The conspiracy theories about significant over count of deaths really irritates me. Because it's based on anecdote and, quite frankly, a misunderstanding of how causes of death are determined. Like let's say I've got hemophilia and get a nasty cut. A perfectly healthy person would live through it, but I bleed out and die. What's my cause of death? It's reasonable to say laceration and blood loss, because that's technically accurate, but it was the hemophilia that killed me. Or let's say I'm in a motorcycle crash and break some ribs, makes it hard to breathe but is otherwise recoverable. But during my recovery I catch COVID and die. Why did I die? Was it the motorcycle accident? To the extent that it affected my ability to breathe yes, but it would be an accurate statement but for the onset of COVID pneumonia I would have lived and THAT is a legitimate cause of death. Another example would be to ask how many people you know that have died of cancer. My father in law died last year after a battle with leukemia. But he technically died of pneumonia while he was fighting. But labeling his death as cancer caused is accurate and not fudging the numbers.

All you have to do to see that we're actually under counting COVID deaths is go to the CDC page for excess deaths in the USA. These people watch this kind of thing. They have a pretty good idea (within a margin of error) how many people are going to die in the country week-to-week. It's pretty consistent. In 2020, the USA has over 200,000 excess deaths from what would be normally expected. That's a lot closer to the real death toll.

A final consideration we should all think about is how much better our treatment is today than in March because the doctors have learned so much about how to treat. We're averaging like 1,300 deaths/day now. At our worst it was about 2,500. I would argue that if we were still using the care used in March, that 1,300 figure would certainly be higher, maybe as high as 2,000/day total. But regardless of how many hundreds more per day that they're saving, that's hundreds more that are pulling through after a serious hospitalization and with unknown long term effects.

Like many things in life, this stuff is complicated and there are no easy answers.

Using your example of the motorcycle accident, how do we know that COVID was the complication that pushed you over the edge? To me, that for sure is pure speculation to state it was a COVID death over anything else. I don't believe those should be counted as COVID d3aths.

I do think those are definitely inflated but either way, the overall # of deaths is definitely a better metric but also still flawed for obvious reasons.

Also, 647k people died of heart disease last year alone. Something tells me a lot of heart diseases are going to sway towards COVID next year. As well as influenza (55k) and respiratory disease (160k). That is a lot of deaths that can be crossed over so it'll be interesting to see where we stand when its all said and done. 200k more deaths year over year is a statistic I have yet to see personally though. Also, Baby Boomers are getting up there so that number is likely to continue to tick higher than it has in years past too.
 
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Everything is backlogged to a certain extent. Mondays & Tuesdays are the "biggest" days becasue the weekeneds are the "smallest", because so many health pro's are off weekends, cases & deaths from Sat/Sun are reported 1st if the week. So, everyone just accepts that this is the way it is. Also too though, when's the last time you saw a list of positive antibody test results? They don't exist, which means they are reported as "new cases" when they are discovered. So,the new cases reported each day aren't necessarily representing the actual new cases from the previous day, sometimes far from it. Over time trends even out though. Death totals have inevitably climbed, they lag 1-2 weeks, so before long they'll begin to decrease a bit as cases have begun to decrease in the hardest hit areas. Most frustratingly. we're going through our worst right now because--inexplicably--when it was clear, 2 months ago, that the warmest areas of the US were spiking(it wasn't hard to see where), we didn't issue a quarantine order for anyone entering Indiana from hot spots, which should have a no brainer, but I digress...

Correct, trends are in the wrong direction and many folks are scrambling to poke holes in that inconvenient truth.
 
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Correct, trends are in the wrong direction and many folks are scrambling to poke holes in that inconvenient truth.
They aren't intelligent enough to realize the media they subscribe to has an agenda & isn't telling them the truth, which goes for ALL American media covering this pandemic. That & they really don't care much about the truth when it's inconvenient, as you say, to get right down to it. They're selfish.
 
They would transmit the flu in the exact same manner to the exact same types of people which could have potentially deadly consequences for said people....so permanent shut down of all activities right?

Yet flu doesn't transmit as easily and doesn't have near the death rate and medical issues that covid causes.

That's like saying cte isn't a big deal, i get colds.
 
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