Official Debate Thread (Now With Rulez)
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
Some of those comments came after there was an uproar causing pressure to do so. Saying it reluctantly to get people off your back hardly means much. The fact is he took a pass at the debate when point blank asked if he condemned white supremacists.
Why is this important? Because the FBI just released, an internal warning concerning far right extremist groups that may incite violence after the election. These nuts are just itching for the civil war and Trump seems hellbent on delivering it to all of us.
As Trump Equivocates on White Supremacy, the FBI Warns of Right-Wing Terror
www.thenation.com
As Trump Equivocates on White Supremacy, the FBI Warns of Right-Wing Terror
As Trump Equivocates on White Supremacy, the FBI Warns of Right-Wing Terror
An intelligence report dated the day of the presidential debate predicts a “violent extremist threat” posed by a far-right militia.
www.thenation.com
I can't begin to tell you how damaging his white supremist moment was. It was the moment and it will be played on a loop for the next month. Trump just effectively branded a Trump supporter a racist, violent white supremist. What's even more damaging is that stink already existed but the leader of todays party just rubber stamped it live in front of 30 million people from both sides.
This wasn't a Twitter thing that is a captured audience echo chamber. This was live national tv.
At best he has to defend this for the next couple of weeks and being the one who is behind means there is not much left for offense. So Biden could literally stay in his basement and not lose his lead.
Let's look at women voters, a base that has completely flipped on Trump from 2016.
On one hand you had Trump having a temper tantrum. One who threw personal insults and attacked Biden's son. Biden had two great responses. One he admitted that Hunter had an addiction problem and that he was very proud of him for his rehab journey.
That hit with mothers big time as post debate analysis is saying.
Secondly he looked at the camera and said it wasn't about Trumps family or his family...its about your family, the American family. It was a really good appeal the analysis is saying.
Then you had the white supremist deal where not only did he not denounce them, he invigorated them while encouraging violence.
Yeah that plays well with women voters, with suburbia, with minority voters, with McCain Republicans, with elderly who remember what presidential used to look like and with of course Biden voters.
It did excite the white nationalists. They definitely have a lot of enthusiasm after Tuesday.
As dmb said, "they are absolutely jacked and ready to go". Or, as T.rump said they will "stand back and stand by".
You could see that Trump thought he was scoring major points by attacking Hunter for a drug problem. That's not surprising from the guy who wasn't sure if he wanted to name Jr. with his name in case he grew up to be an embarrassment (oops). Meanwhile Biden standing there like any loving parent would admitting that their child isn't perfect but they love them and are proud of them anyway was such a stark contrast.
That's a contrast that I bet Trump still doesn't get.
Biden did not a have a good night but he had some very good moments (like this one) and not only did he endure, he got stronger as the night went on.
Like we've been saying all year, Fox News has set the bar so low for Biden that just enduring the debate is seen as a win.
It was an obvious short sighted political framing strategy.
The proper way is to just hint at it and then after the debate with a month to go you bring in the hammer of doubt.
LOL - why even show up for a debate if we're going to have to look through several years' worth of archive footage to decode what he meant to say?
If you really think there 43-45% seriously enthusiastic, you are seriously misguided. I'd say the number is about 20-25%. The other 20% or so are just reliable Republican voters that vote Republican regardless.... even though they may hate the man. These seem the most likely to me to either stay home or vote 3rd party.
First post- debate poll out now has Biden up by 13 points.
Wednesday’s CNBC/Change Research poll also showed Biden gaining ground nationally over Trump: 54% of respondents picked Biden, while 41% picked Trump. That’s wider than the gap currently displayed by some national polling average trackers.
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I’ll be interested to see some additional polls. That’s a big damn number for October.
Edit to add - Mike Madrid is really great with talking about polls and voting. I really enjoy him on the LP podcasts.
Unless Trump ducks the next debate, he will be even further behind. The town hall format plays to Biden’s strengths and Trump’s weaknesses.
I've seen several pundits state that the most important thing to look at when a President is up for reelection is his job approval rating. If he's at 50% it's a guarantee. Anything over 45% and he's got a real shot. Rasmussen had Trump down to 46% after the tax return issue Sunday but back up to 49% today. Harvard has him at 47%. He's probably at about 47% if you average them out. That's about where W and Obama were I believe when reelected.
That’s some cherry picking there. Rasmussen is always higher on Trump than any other poll.
President Trump Job Approval | Election Other | RealClearPolitics
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Trump Job Approval
That’s some cherry picking there. Rasmussen is always higher on Trump than any other poll.
President Trump Job Approval | Election Other | RealClearPolitics
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Trump Job Approvalwww.realclearpolitics.com
But even the Dem leaning polls have him around 45%. Which historically means he probably has a decent chance at reelection. It's not like he's running against Abraham Lincoln here.
"John Michael Posobiec III is an American alt-right political activist and conspiracy theorist who is considered an Internet troll"
Congrats there DMB... Not only did you manage to link a tweet from one of the most obvious neo-fascist trolls on twitter in good old Jacky. But you didn't even stop to ask yourself why ol' "John Michael Prosobeic III" didn't see fit to include the REST of the tape? You know when they asked how many thought Trump "won" the debate...
Btw the answer was TWO, which kind of defines Trump's problem in a nutshell...
First off there aren't that many "undecideds" to try and convert. Not only has Biden had a larger and more consistent lead than HRC enjoyed (with no substantial 3rd party votes like she faced), but Biden's number is right at 50%. Trailing 50-42 is a Hell of a lot more daunting than trailing 45-40 when there are many more undecideds and late breakers...
Secondly- this is a referendum on Trump. There is no widespread hatred of Biden among the electorate, and as the incumbent Trump can't portray himself as an "agent of change".
Trump has a "record", and that appeals to you and the rest of his base. So for example you are pleased with him appointing Federal judges you approve of, and people like me (and millions of others) see that as damage he's foisted on the judicial system. All of Trump's "accomplishments" appeal to his base, which is again the 42% or so he's had since he became potus. The 50-42 mirrors his job performance rating. There is no way for Trump to win unless he suppresses the anti-Trump vote...
What you didn't see was that two people I believe said Trump won.
Again, Biden didn't win. Trump was the one who needed to have a big showing. You (I believe) was counting on it in your scenarios.
He didn't.
Worse yet he had the moment of the debate which wasn't a good moment, it was a moment that is being talked about as a shameful moment.
Good luck with that. I wouldn't trade places with you.
RCP leans Republican in their orientation. Today (10/1) they show a rolling average of Biden 50.1 and Trump 42.9. Biden being at 50 or above is incredibly significant. And for today even Rasmussen shows the daily number as 51-43...
Exactly 4 polls show Biden under 50%, with The Hill the lowest at 45% to Trump's 40. But none of those polls reflect anything more recent than Sept 25. Every poll with data from Sept 26 or later shows Biden anywhere from 50-54%. That's a steep hill for Trump's fatass to try and climb considering the debate was on 9/29...
And if you don't think that debate moment hurt him....this is Scott effing Adams (Dilbert) who has been a staunch, loyal Trump supporter on the James Woods level of celebrity Trump supporter telling Trump that he's done.
Take a look at his Twitter history, he's insanely pro Trump. It has hurt him financially he says.
Not anymore it sounds like.
If Adams is recoiling, this gives me confidence that others are recoiling.
Trump's base may well be jacked up but they cannot reelect Trump without the help of a lot of independents and moderates that voted in 2016 to give change a chance.
Many if not most of those voters are not going to do that again with trump.
He is toast.
Good thought but the debate would take 136 hours to complete.
Yeah, that should be good. Trump interrupts Biden, the moderator cuts Trump's microphone, and Trump lamblasts/fbombs the average citizen who asked the original question like it's his fault his microphone doesn't work.
Then, next day, Trump defends himself by saying, "What are you talking about? I WAS polite. That's fake news."
Not if the extra Biden time is taken from Trump's time.
Elections (and uncontrolled mouths) have consequences. Trump acts like he has NEVER been corrected or disciplined in his life.
Ok, now there is math and referees under the hood looking at replays.
Trump needed the stories coming out of the debate to be about Biden flubs. They're not. Quite the opposite. The clock is ticking on his presidency.
Biden won by:
1. Debunking the myth he’s demented, and
2. By cementing his image as a decent guy, drastically contrasted by Trump’s boorish existence.*
Both were crucial to achieve with the broader audience starting to tune in to the election.
*It’s no wonder Trump was always rejected by the NYC aristocracy.
I don't fear either social subset you mentioned.It's not fair for you to bring Len into this.
Like you answer?
How many Chicago gun victims are killed by legal holders??
How many killed by NRA or GOA members?
How many killed by AR varients?
How many killed by 3%ers, Oath Keepers, militia, or PROUD BOYS?
Clean up your own shit show righteous boi
One of the GOP strategist brought this up on debate night... where he's seen many recent polls where Trump's job approval is 46-47.... but then the same people/ same poll only are going to vote for him in the 41-42 range. Time and again he's losing like 5% of people that perhaps like his policies but are still not going to vote for him. It's not a normal finding.
The gap is made up of the die hard Republicans that liked the tax cuts and the strong economy before Covid... but still have a conscience.
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