Numbers

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

This place could use some data:

Today's NIH/CDC data:

Maryland is the state with the highest percentage of hospital beds occupied by Covid patients - it is at 12.5% of its beds occupied by Covid patients. Arizona is next highest at 10.8%. Indiana is at 4.5%.

Oddly, they don't give you the amount of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients - just the number of ICU beds occupied by ALL patients. Because, you know, the other number would be relevant and helpful.

Maryland is at 77.2%.
Arizona is at 74.6%
The highest state is Alabam (Roll Tide!) at 77.9%.
Indiana is 61.9%

They also don't tell you what is "normal" - because, you know, that would be relevant and helpful.


Deaths are also still trending downward - these CDC numbers are based on death certificates that report Covid 19 as the cause of death. They lag a couple of weeks behind, so the "most recent numbers" change for a few weeks, but still, at the end of May things were looking better.

Week/Deaths
2/1/2020 1
2/8/2020 1
2/15/2020 0
2/22/2020 4
2/29/2020 5
3/7/2020 32
3/14/2020 52
3/21/2020 548
3/28/2020 3,040
4/4/2020 9,482
4/11/2020 15,652
4/18/2020 16,270
4/25/2020 14,017
5/2/2020 11,502
5/9/2020 10,492
5/16/2020 8,407
5/23/2020 6,142
5/30/2020 4,683
6/6/2020 2,548
6/13/2020 461

Have fun with your hate speeches!

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Pure data gets no play

 

[The Vid]

This place could use some data:

Today's NIH/CDC data:

Maryland is the state with the highest percentage of hospital beds occupied by Covid patients - it is at 12.5% of its beds occupied by Covid patients. Arizona is next highest at 10.8%. Indiana is at 4.5%.

Oddly, they don't give you the amount of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients - just the number of ICU beds occupied by ALL patients. Because, you know, the other number would be relevant and helpful.

Maryland is at 77.2%.
Arizona is at 74.6%
The highest state is Alabam (Roll Tide!) at 77.9%.
Indiana is 61.9%

They also don't tell you what is "normal" - because, you know, that would be relevant and helpful.


Deaths are also still trending downward - these CDC numbers are based on death certificates that report Covid 19 as the cause of death. They lag a couple of weeks behind, so the "most recent numbers" change for a few weeks, but still, at the end of May things were looking better.

Week/Deaths
2/1/2020 1
2/8/2020 1
2/15/2020 0
2/22/2020 4
2/29/2020 5
3/7/2020 32
3/14/2020 52
3/21/2020 548
3/28/2020 3,040
4/4/2020 9,482
4/11/2020 15,652
4/18/2020 16,270
4/25/2020 14,017
5/2/2020 11,502
5/9/2020 10,492
5/16/2020 8,407
5/23/2020 6,142
5/30/2020 4,683
6/6/2020 2,548
6/13/2020 461

Have fun with your hate speeches!

Let’s head to Super Walmart, load up the coolers, and head straight to Tulsa. Yee-haw!!

 

[UncleMark]

Pure data gets no play

I agree with you that deaths are the salient number, followed by hospitalizations. The snapshot your numbers provide are encouraging, yes. I suspect the deaths are the result of the NYC dumpster fire being brought under control. What has yet to be determined is whether or not we'll see a wave emanating throughout the rest of the country, like a ripple in a pond with NYC being where the pebble first hit. AZ, OK, FL, AL et al probably won't turn into new raging infernos like New York was, but it's very very possible they'll find themselves in deep shit. At that point, tough decisions will have to be made.

Of course, if everyone wore a mask and kept their distance and stayed out of crowds, we'd most likely be in (relatively) good shape until there's a therapeutic breakthrough or (much later, if ever) a vaccine. But try telling that to the protesters and the MAGAs...

 

[Spartans9312]

I agree with you that deaths are the salient number, followed by hospitalizations. The snapshot your numbers provide are encouraging, yes. I suspect the deaths are the result of the NYC dumpster fire being brought under control. What has yet to be determined is whether or not we'll see a wave emanating throughout the rest of the country, like a ripple in a pond with NYC being where the pebble first hit. AZ, OK, FL, AL et al probably won't turn into new raging infernos like New York was, but it's very very possible they'll find themselves in deep shit. At that point, tough decisions will have to be made.

Of course, if everyone wore a mask and kept their distance and stayed out of crowds, we'd most likely be in (relatively) good shape until there's a therapeutic breakthrough or (much later, if ever) a vaccine. But try telling that to the protesters and the MAGAs...

And everyone that doesn't raise or grow their own food

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Let’s head to Super Walmart, load up the coolers, and head straight to Tulsa. Yee-haw!!

Is the Tulsa rally today?

I haven't been living on Tulsa time, but I can set my watch back to it.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Pure data gets no play

Some of us are waiting on Deuteronomy.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Some of us are waiting on Deuteronomy.

I see what you did there.

 

[bawlmer]

Saw somewhere today fewer patients are ending up in ICUs and death rates are down a bit. Also, I don't recall seeing posts here about positive findings (pre-publication) from a major study out of the UK about a cheap steroid showing significant benefits reducing deaths for people in ICUs.

 

[UncleMark]

Saw somewhere today fewer patients are ending up in ICUs and death rates are down a bit.

I'd like to see the numbers that include everyone other than the NYC metro area. I think that would tell us a lot. The national totals were bigly skewed by the disaster in NYC.

Also, I don't recall seeing posts here about positive findings (pre-publication) from a major study out of the UK about a cheap steroid showing significant benefits reducing deaths for people in ICUs.

It has been. I believe JDB started the thread this morning.

Yup:

https://indiana.forums.rivals.com/t...ds-help-with-covid-respiratory-issues.199194/

 

[DrHoops]

Whew! Only 133,000 dead Americans. Roughly 3 times the number of American combat deaths in the entire Vietnam War. And we got it all done in 4 months...so far! #efficiency.

Today there were 24,000 new cases in the US and over 600 people died...so far. Glad those numbers make you feel good.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Whew! Only 133,000 dead Americans. Roughly 3 times the number of American combat deaths in the entire Vietnam War. And we got it all done in 4 months...so far! #efficiency.

Today there were 24,000 new cases in the US and over 600 people died...so far. Glad those numbers make you feel good.

You talking to me?

 

[Spartans9312]

Whew! Only 133,000 dead Americans. Roughly 3 times the number of American combat deaths in the entire Vietnam War. And we got it all done in 4 months...so far! #efficiency.

Today there were 24,000 new cases in the US and over 600 people died...so far. Glad those numbers make you feel good.

It's not going away.
There is a real good chance it gets worse once our influenza season hits.
The folks that are lucky enough to get both are going to be all kinds of sick.

 

[Circlejoe]

Whew! Only 133,000 dead Americans. Roughly 3 times the number of American combat deaths in the entire Vietnam War. And we got it all done in 4 months...so far! #efficiency.

Today there were 24,000 new cases in the US and over 600 people died...so far. Glad those numbers make you feel good.

I believe we set a new record for both positive cases and deaths today here in Arizona. The Governor opened things up pretty early and has resisted recommendations for masks. He finally punted to local control yesterday and allowed mayors to create regulations for businesses regarding social distancing and masks. I picked up take out last Friday from a neighborhood wine bistro and I was the only person wearing a mask, including employees. Two live musicians were in the main room. No social distancing happening. We're paying the price.

 

[sglowrider]

I believe we set a new record for both positive cases and deaths today here in Arizona. The Governor opened things up pretty early and has resisted recommendations for masks. He finally punted to local control yesterday and allowed mayors to create regulations for businesses regarding social distancing and masks. I picked up take out last Friday from a neighborhood wine bistro and I was the only person wearing a mask, including employees. Two live musicians were in the main room. No social distancing happening. We're paying the price.

Thats crazy. How do they think this thing is going to go away? Are they mentally challenged?

 

[Circlejoe]

Thats crazy. How do they think this thing is going to go away? Are they mentally challenged?

There are a lot of people that believe it won't affect them. Mayors are implementing new policies this week so it will be interesting if it makes a difference.

 

[sglowrider]

There are a lot of people that believe it won't affect them. Mayors are implementing new policies this week so it will be interesting if it makes a difference.

Mindset of a teenager.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

You talking to me?

Don't worry, he's impotent and infertile. There's a silver lining.

 

[sglowrider]

Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 μm) and aerosols (≤5 μm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (1–3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs.

For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals.

​

Identifying infected individuals to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission is more challenging compared to SARS and other respiratory viruses because infected individuals can be highly contagious for several days, peaking on or before symptoms occur (2, 7).

These “silent shedders” could be critical drivers of the enhanced spread of SARS-CoV-2. In Wuhan, China, it has been estimated that undiagnosed cases of COVID-19 infection, who were presumably asymptomatic, were responsible for up to 79% of viral infections (3). Therefore, regular, widespread testing is essential to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/08/science.abc6197.full

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

This place could use some data:

Today's NIH/CDC data:

Maryland is the state with the highest percentage of hospital beds occupied by Covid patients - it is at 12.5% of its beds occupied by Covid patients. Arizona is next highest at 10.8%. Indiana is at 4.5%.

Oddly, they don't give you the amount of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients - just the number of ICU beds occupied by ALL patients. Because, you know, the other number would be relevant and helpful.

Maryland is at 77.2%.
Arizona is at 74.6%
The highest state is Alabam (Roll Tide!) at 77.9%.
Indiana is 61.9%

They also don't tell you what is "normal" - because, you know, that would be relevant and helpful.


Deaths are also still trending downward - these CDC numbers are based on death certificates that report Covid 19 as the cause of death. They lag a couple of weeks behind, so the "most recent numbers" change for a few weeks, but still, at the end of May things were looking better.

Week/Deaths
2/1/2020 1
2/8/2020 1
2/15/2020 0
2/22/2020 4
2/29/2020 5
3/7/2020 32
3/14/2020 52
3/21/2020 548
3/28/2020 3,040
4/4/2020 9,482
4/11/2020 15,652
4/18/2020 16,270
4/25/2020 14,017
5/2/2020 11,502
5/9/2020 10,492
5/16/2020 8,407
5/23/2020 6,142
5/30/2020 4,683
6/6/2020 2,548
6/13/2020 461

Have fun with your hate speeches!

Couple of pragmatic thoughts:

1) ICU beds by state doesn't necessarily address the capacity issue because of the local concentration of infections. Take NYC for example, even if NY state had stated capacity, because of the population density, the city or metro area could have been closer to, at, or over capacity

2) ICU bed capacity in a typical, non-pandemic environment was 65-68% nationally. From what I've read, it would be highly inefficient to operate an ICU with less than 50% occupancy, but also likely inefficient if strained (operating above 90/95%)

3) Bed capacity =/= staffing capacity. ICU quality providers are more scarce

3) Similarly

 

[Sope Creek]

This place could use some data:

Today's NIH/CDC data:

Maryland is the state with the highest percentage of hospital beds occupied by Covid patients - it is at 12.5% of its beds occupied by Covid patients. Arizona is next highest at 10.8%. Indiana is at 4.5%.

Oddly, they don't give you the amount of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients - just the number of ICU beds occupied by ALL patients. Because, you know, the other number would be relevant and helpful.

Maryland is at 77.2%.
Arizona is at 74.6%
The highest state is Alabam (Roll Tide!) at 77.9%.
Indiana is 61.9%

They also don't tell you what is "normal" - because, you know, that would be relevant and helpful.


Deaths are also still trending downward - these CDC numbers are based on death certificates that report Covid 19 as the cause of death. They lag a couple of weeks behind, so the "most recent numbers" change for a few weeks, but still, at the end of May things were looking better.

Week/Deaths
2/1/2020 1
2/8/2020 1
2/15/2020 0
2/22/2020 4
2/29/2020 5
3/7/2020 32
3/14/2020 52
3/21/2020 548
3/28/2020 3,040
4/4/2020 9,482
4/11/2020 15,652
4/18/2020 16,270
4/25/2020 14,017
5/2/2020 11,502
5/9/2020 10,492
5/16/2020 8,407
5/23/2020 6,142
5/30/2020 4,683
6/6/2020 2,548
6/13/2020 461

Have fun with your hate speeches!

Nice cherries you got there . . . but the National Cherry Festival in Traverse City has been cancelled this year because of the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.cherryfestival.org/p/ab...2020-festival-postponement-official-statement

Here's some more data for your consideration: Georgia hospitalizations due to the coronavirus have been going up for over a week: https://www.covid-georgia.com/current-hospitalizations/

MrsSope just got her first Stelara infusion on Tuesday . . . Stelara is a biologic that can suppress the immune system . . .

. . . crap.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

MrsSope just got her first Stelara infusion on Tuesday . . . Stelara is a biologic that can suppress the immune system . . .

She may be more susceptible to getting infected, but on the plus side, wouldn't that reduce the risk of overreaction by the body to lung infection? It seems like the body's sharp reaction to the infection causes as much damage as the virus itself in many cases, or am I reading that wrong?

 

[Ladoga]

Nice cherries you got there . . . but the National Cherry Festival in Traverse City has been cancelled this year because of the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.cherryfestival.org/p/ab...2020-festival-postponement-official-statement

Here's some more data for your consideration: Georgia hospitalizations due to the coronavirus have been going up for over a week: https://www.covid-georgia.com/current-hospitalizations/

MrsSope just got her first Stelara infusion on Tuesday . . . Stelara is a biologic that can suppress the immune system . . .

. . . crap.

Msg to MsSope. I am praying for her strength and recovery.

 

[Rockfish1]

 

[UncleMark]

MrsSope just got her first Stelara infusion on Tuesday . . . Stelara is a biologic that can suppress the immune system . . .

. . . crap.

You'd better not bring any critters home with you then.

 

[sglowrider]

View embedded media

Yabut... it's not worse than the seasonal flu.

Oh btw...

 

[Spartans9312]

Yabut... it's not worse than the seasonal flu.

Oh btw...

View embedded media

It's not going away

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Nice cherries you got there . . . but the National Cherry Festival in Traverse City has been cancelled this year because of the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.cherryfestival.org/p/ab...2020-festival-postponement-official-statement

Here's some more data for your consideration: Georgia hospitalizations due to the coronavirus have been going up for over a week: https://www.covid-georgia.com/current-hospitalizations/

MrsSope just got her first Stelara infusion on Tuesday . . . Stelara is a biologic that can suppress the immune system . . .

. . . crap.

Bummer.

As an RA patient, I’ve been reading as much as I can about the immune system stuff. Early NYC stats and reports about “the Covid crash” and the “cytokine storms” and presence of immune-system markers made me believe that suppressed immunity might be a helpful thing for folks who get serious respiratory issues from covid, I.e. reducing inflammation at critical times in critical places. Watched a long interview with a Seattle rheumatologist who was looking at “IL6 inhibitors.” The recent breakthrough findings about dexamethasone are in the same realm (I think, but I’m no doctor).

Good news/bad news. Recent study from San Francisco found that RA patients taking the same TNF-a blocker I take were hospitalized less (63% less), but a British study with a letter sample found that RA patients who went into hospital died at a higher rate (23%).

As for hospital bed usage, I’m in “show me” mode. I think most of the recent increase (especially in ICU usage) is not currently Covid-related. Hospitals intentionally turned away non-Covid cases while expecting to be overwhelmed. (We had this experience with my mom in April.) Now that they aren’t overwhelmed, they are back to routine, and the usage is up.

I’m probably being overly critical during a crisis, but I’ve been disappointed that the medical research community has answered so many critical questions so far with “we don’t know yet.” But the 2 studies above show that meaningful data is started to get meaningfully reviewed.

But ... there’s always a butt ... the vaccines may beat the studies to the “real help” finish line. I’m prepared to wait for either. And I’m still glad the deaths are dropping. Even if the CDC changes their mind about everything every week or so.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

She may be more susceptible to getting infected, but on the plus side, wouldn't that reduce the risk of overreaction by the body to lung infection? It seems like the body's sharp reaction to the infection causes as much damage as the virus itself in many cases, or am I reading that wrong?

Stop beating me to the punch.

 

[hoot1]

Yabut... it's not worse than the seasonal flu.

Oh btw...

View embedded media

Sglo, just when I thought maybe I would survive Covid 19, you remind me of the seasonal flu coming later this year.

If it's not one thing, it's another.

 

[Ladoga]

Bummer.

As an RA patient, I’ve been reading as much as I can about the immune system stuff. Early NYC stats and reports about “the Covid crash” and the “cytokine storms” and presence of immune-system markers made me believe that suppressed immunity might be a helpful thing for folks who get serious respiratory issues from covid, I.e. reducing inflammation at critical times in critical places. Watched a long interview with a Seattle rheumatologist who was looking at “IL6 inhibitors.” The recent breakthrough findings about dexamethasone are in the same realm (I think, but I’m no doctor).

Good news/bad news. Recent study from San Francisco found that RA patients taking the same TNF-a blocker I take were hospitalized less (63% less), but a British study with a letter sample found that RA patients who went into hospital died at a higher rate (23%).

As for hospital bed usage, I’m in “show me” mode. I think most of the recent increase (especially in ICU usage) is not currently Covid-related. Hospitals intentionally turned away non-Covid cases while expecting to be overwhelmed. (We had this experience with my mom in April.) Now that they aren’t overwhelmed, they are back to routine, and the usage is up.

I’m probably being overly critical during a crisis, but I’ve been disappointed that the medical research community has answered so many critical questions so far with “we don’t know yet.” But the 2 studies above show that meaningful data is started to get meaningfully reviewed.

But ... there’s always a butt ... the vaccines may beat the studies to the “real help” finish line. I’m prepared to wait for either. And I’m still glad the deaths are dropping. Even if the CDC changes their mind about everything every week or so.

The link is to the data Indiana publishes.

52% of ICU beds are occupied by non-covid patients, 36% un occupied and only about 11% occupied by covid patients. Ventilator numbers - also shown there are WAAAAY down.

You have to follow links into the pages, but something less that 4% of ventilators are in use for covid patients.

 

[Sope Creek]

Msg to MsSope. I am praying for her strength and recovery.

Thank you!

She's actually fine . . . virtually no symptoms that she notices . . . the Stelara is to keep Crohn's Disease from flaring so she remains fine. It's been 29 years since she had a resection, and since then she's done wonderfully for someone with Crohn's Disease. A routine colonoscopy last fall showed a narrowing of her intestines where the large and small intestine meet . . . so this treatment is for preventing any worsening of the condition.

It beats the hell out of having another resection.

 

[Sope Creek]

Sglo, just when I thought maybe I would survive Covid 19, you remind me of the seasonal flu coming later this year.

If it's not one thing, it's another.

Or as Rosanne Rosannadanna would say: It's always somethin'.

 

[Sope Creek]

She may be more susceptible to getting infected, but on the plus side, wouldn't that reduce the risk of overreaction by the body to lung infection? It seems like the body's sharp reaction to the infection causes as much damage as the virus itself in many cases, or am I reading that wrong?

Beats me. We asked about the potential for infection, and the docs weren't worried about it . . . they said they haven't seen an elevated risk of flu or other infections among their Stelara patients.

So we're not worried about it.

It's a good thought though . . . and you might be spot on. I just don't know.

 

[Sope Creek]

Bummer.

As an RA patient, I’ve been reading as much as I can about the immune system stuff. Early NYC stats and reports about “the Covid crash” and the “cytokine storms” and presence of immune-system markers made me believe that suppressed immunity might be a helpful thing for folks who get serious respiratory issues from covid, I.e. reducing inflammation at critical times in critical places. Watched a long interview with a Seattle rheumatologist who was looking at “IL6 inhibitors.” The recent breakthrough findings about dexamethasone are in the same realm (I think, but I’m no doctor).

Good news/bad news. Recent study from San Francisco found that RA patients taking the same TNF-a blocker I take were hospitalized less (63% less), but a British study with a letter sample found that RA patients who went into hospital died at a higher rate (23%).

As for hospital bed usage, I’m in “show me” mode. I think most of the recent increase (especially in ICU usage) is not currently Covid-related. Hospitals intentionally turned away non-Covid cases while expecting to be overwhelmed. (We had this experience with my mom in April.) Now that they aren’t overwhelmed, they are back to routine, and the usage is up.

I’m probably being overly critical during a crisis, but I’ve been disappointed that the medical research community has answered so many critical questions so far with “we don’t know yet.” But the 2 studies above show that meaningful data is started to get meaningfully reviewed.

But ... there’s always a butt ... the vaccines may beat the studies to the “real help” finish line. I’m prepared to wait for either. And I’m still glad the deaths are dropping. Even if the CDC changes their mind about everything every week or so.

Now you know how your clients feel when you answer them "Well, it depends".

Glad you're doing OK too!

 

[UncleMark]

I’m probably being overly critical during a crisis, but I’ve been disappointed that the medical research community has answered so many critical questions so far with “we don’t know yet.” But the 2 studies above show that meaningful data is started to get meaningfully reviewed.

That's the thing about a novel virus -- it's brand new and they don't have quick answers. Research and studies take time. But yes, it does appear that they're learning on the job, and are developing treatment protocols that result in better outcomes. Infection may not be as deadly as it was at the beginning.

But ... there’s always a butt ... the vaccines may beat the studies to the “real help” finish line. I’m prepared to wait for either. And I’m still glad the deaths are dropping. Even if the CDC changes their mind about everything every week or so.

From what I understand, they really have never developed a magic bullet vaccine for any kind of coronavirus. Even flu vaccines only target certain strains -- they don't protect against the whole family of viruses. I'm not optimistic we'll see a vaccine any time soon, and even then I don't expect it to be anywhere close to 100% effective. This virus is mutating in the wild as it is.

 

[Ladoga]

Thank you!

She's actually fine . . . virtually no symptoms that she notices . . . the Stelara is to keep Crohn's Disease from flaring so she remains fine. It's been 29 years since she had a resection, and since then she's done wonderfully for someone with Crohn's Disease. A routine colonoscopy last fall showed a narrowing of her intestines where the large and small intestine meet . . . so this treatment is for preventing any worsening of the condition.

It beats the hell out of having another resection.

I cringe when you use the phrase "routine colonoscopy", but then there's the Versed

 

[Neves]

View embedded media

The link is to the data Indiana publishes.

52% of ICU beds are occupied by non-covid patients, 36% un occupied and only about 11% occupied by covid patients. Ventilator numbers - also shown there are WAAAAY down.

You have to follow links into the pages, but something less that 4% of ventilators are in use for covid patients.

Holcomb has done a really good job IMO. Indiana is in good shape because of the lockdowns, social distancing, etc. I think he has had a really strategic approach to reopening and so far it is working. I'm glad to see that Indy shut down the streets to allow for outdoor dining in the popular areas. Lets hope it continues!

 

[Sope Creek]

I cringe when you use the phrase "routine colonoscopy", but then there's the Versed

Every 10 years, whether you need it or not . . .

. . . when I had my last one, I liked the propofol anesthesia. Never slept better in my life . . . woke up after a half-hour and thought I'd had the best night of sleep ever.