I'm going with Indiana. I'm going with the three star athletes defeating the four star athletes. I'm going with the Michigan pundits who say that Harborough's coaching staff has done a crappy job teaching technique and making game time adjustments.
I've been pretty close with the detailed predictions so far this year, so here goes:
IU comes out scoring early, up 17-7 after 1.
Things settle down and it's 24-14 at half.
The defense holds firm in the second half and Sheridan keeps his foot on the gas, IU wins 38-24 (with UM getting a late TD as the IU defense lets them kill clock dinking/dunking down the field).