"massive infusion of new data" leads to downward adjustment in predicted COVID-19 deaths

[outside shooter]

The model now predicts the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That's about 12,000 fewer deaths -- and 121,000 fewer hospital beds -- than the model estimated just last Thursday.

the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html

 

[UncleMark]

the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August

I've read a number of articles that discuss the fact that the IHME became the defacto national model, and that it has been the reason the "official" death estimates of 100-240K were as low as they were -- that other models had a much much higher death rate. The biggest criticism was that it used more optimistic assumptions about how good the social distancing was being followed. In this example, that lower figure will require people to remain vigilant and stay out of the workplace and in many cases remain unemployed longer than many think should be necessary.

That said, any good news is welcome. Regardless of the actual numbers, the trend is in the right direction.

 

[bawlmer]

Even with the downward adjustment, the actual death toll at this point is about 2,600 below the IHME projection through today.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August

Well might as well ratchet it back up then.

 

[HillzHoozier]

Trump saved us!

 

[UncleMark]

Trump saved us!

That will no doubt be the refrain.

 

[mashnut]

That will no doubt be the refrain.

It's going to be yet another illustration of the asymmetry of our politics. One party is doing everything they can to save American lives no matter whether or not that ends up hurting their political goals to defeat the president. The other party is focused only on winning elections, see Wisconsin et. al.

 

[HillzHoozier]

It's going to be yet another illustration of the asymmetry of our politics. One party is doing everything they can to save American lives no matter whether or not that ends up hurting their political goals to defeat the president. The other party is focused only on winning elections, see Wisconsin et. al.

Horse hockey. Have you ever read this forum? #trumpvirus

 

[AtlantaCat]

It's going to be yet another illustration of the asymmetry of our politics. One party is doing everything they can to save American lives no matter whether or not that ends up hurting their political goals to defeat the president. The other party is focused only on winning elections, see Wisconsin et. al.

This is the funniest post I have read on this Forum in awhile. God Bless the altruistic Democratic Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[hoosboot]

This is the funniest post I have read on this Forum in awhile. God Bless the altruistic Democratic Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, that one is a little much. I respect the work that Dewine and Hogan have been doing quite a bit. IMHO, the problem is more a divide between the Federal executive branch and the State executive branches than between Democrat and Republican. And even then, it's more just a portion of the Federal executive branch.

 

[mashnut]

Yeah, that one is a little much. I respect the work that Dewine and Hogan have been doing quite a bit. IMHO, the problem is more a divide between the Federal executive branch and the State executive branches than between Democrat and Republican. And even then, it's more just a portion of the Federal executive branch.

Which party leads the seven states that have still not issued shelter-in-place orders? Which party leads the state that closed all but 5 voting locations in a major metro, refused to delay the election, and refused to expand mail voting? Which party is refusing to push remote voting nationwide to keep people safe and still have a functioning democracy? It's not just federal, and it is partisan.

 

[hoosboot]

Which party leads the seven states that have still not issued shelter-in-place orders? Which party leads the state that closed all but 5 voting locations in a major metro, refused to delay the election, and refused to expand mail voting? Which party is refusing to push remote voting nationwide to keep people safe and still have a functioning democracy? It's not just federal, and it is partisan.

I disagree, but that's cool. I've been impressed with the work of some of the GOP Governors. Democrats don't have a monopoly on effective leaders who care about their constituents.

 

[cosmickid]

Horse hockey. Have you ever read this forum? #trumpvirus

I don't think very many members of this forum are DUES-PAYING MEMBERS of either of the major political parties. Pretty sure mash's post referred to the actual PARTIES, not people on an internet forum who may or may not SUPPORT them (in spirit)...

 

[cosmickid]

This is the funniest post I have read on this Forum in awhile. God Bless the altruistic Democratic Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Glad to see that you're coming around. Another Dem voter??

 

[cosmickid]

Yeah, that one is a little much. I respect the work that Dewine and Hogan have been doing quite a bit. IMHO, the problem is more a divide between the Federal executive branch and the State executive branches than between Democrat and Republican. And even then, it's more just a portion of the Federal executive branch.

I'm gonna say it's more (with regards to Dewine and Hogan) the difference between moderate GOP Governors and Trump zealots.
Am I missing a pro-Trump Governor that you'd characterize as doing a good job?

 

[mashnut]

I disagree, but that's cool. I've been impressed with the work of some of the GOP Governors. Democrats don't have a monopoly on effective leaders who care about their constituents.

Absolutely. Indiana's governor seems to have done a great job. Maryland's governor too. I never said every Republican was the problem, but I am saying that the people making choices that prioritize political outcomes over health outcomes seem to be consistently in the Trump camp.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Absolutely. Indiana's governor seems to have done a great job. Maryland's governor too. I never said every Republican was the problem, but I am saying that the people making choices that prioritize political outcomes over health outcomes seem to be consistently in the Trump camp.

Georgia and Florida are perfect examples of those who seem to be more concerned about what Trump thinks than the people in their state.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

And another drop

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this assumes social distancing through May, not August

 

[TDHoosier]

It's going to be yet another illustration of the asymmetry of our politics. One party is doing everything they can to save American lives no matter whether or not that ends up hurting their political goals to defeat the president. The other party is focused only on winning elections, see Wisconsin et. al.

I this is just absolutely hilarious, the spin everything against a party post on this forum are just hilarious. What are you going to do when/if Trump is victorious in November? I'm serious you have four more years of spinning and twisting everything he or the Republicans do, it should be a great four years for you.

 

[mcmurtry66]

And another drop

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this assumes social distancing through May, not August

Wow!!!

 

[thezinfan1]

And another drop

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this assumes social distancing through May, not August

This is beginning to look like stock market analysts trying to call the bottom of the drop,lol.

 

[HillzHoozier]

And another drop

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this assumes social distancing through May, not August

If the trend in these revisions holds, I don't see the lockdown lasting thru May. Things will begin to ease in the last week of April/First week of May. The antibody test means the world right now.

 

[zeke4ahs]

I this is just absolutely hilarious, the spin everything against a party post on this forum are just hilarious. What are you going to do when/if Trump is victorious in November? I'm serious you have four more years of spinning and twisting everything he or the Republicans do, it should be a great four years for you.

What are you going to do if he loses? Your life will be easier since you won’t have to spend all the time deflecting, rationalizing, and trying to defend the indefensible. Your conscience will feel better too since you can stop lying to yourself about how the end justifies the means of supporting a man like this.

 

[UncleMark]

If the trend in these revisions holds, I don't see the lockdown lasting thru May. Things will begin to ease in the last week of April/First week of May. The antibody test means the world right now.

If deaths level off mid-May as indicated, do we go back to some kind of new normal beginning in June?

 

[bawlmer]

This is beginning to look like stock market analysts trying to call the bottom of the drop,lol.

After 2 consecutive days of falling new cases, yesterday Maryland reported its highest rate of new cases by a factor of more than 2 (1,158 new cases yesterday, compared to the previous high of 484 new cases on April 4). A big chunk yesterday was apparently clearance of lab backlogs. But this just shows the numbers are still very sensitive to the scope and kinds of tests, and that is changing daily.

So the good news is more tests are being processed. The bad news is the data are still too variable to start setting dates for lifting quarantines.

 

[thezinfan1]

And another drop

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this assumes social distancing through May, not August

After 2 consecutive days of falling new cases, yesterday Maryland reported its highest rate of new cases by a factor of more than 2 (1,158 new cases yesterday, compared to the previous high of 484 new cases on April 4). A big chunk yesterday was apparently clearance of lab backlogs. But this just shows the numbers are still very sensitive to the scope and kinds of tests, and that is changing daily.

So the good news is more tests are being processed. The bad news is the data are still too variable to start setting dates for lifting quarantines.

Just my take, but looking at state testing numbers, I see a bunch of states, including WA, that appear to have a weekly testing capability that is maxed out. So the numbers ARE all over the place. I kinda wish they wouldn't tweak that model so often at healthdata. Educate people instead on the estimated range.

 

[hoot1]

There was a time in my life when the country put politics completely aside during a crisis.

I keep telling myself what I see on the internet and the social media is a misleading glimpse of a country which still cares about each other regardless of politics.

 

[Daydreamer]

And another drop

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

this assumes social distancing through May, not August

It assumes FULL social distancing, which is not happening. Let's hope everyone gets on board to make this projection true instead of getting complacent and losing ground.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

It assumes FULL social distancing, which is not happening. Let's hope everyone gets on board to make this projection true instead of getting complacent and losing ground.

And yet none of what you said has changed since earlier this week or last week

 

[IUJIM]

What are you going to do if he loses? Your life will be easier since you won’t have to spend all the time deflecting, rationalizing, and trying to defend the indefensible. Your conscience will feel better too since you can stop lying to yourself about how the end justifies the means of supporting a man like this.

If he loses, my life will be just fine. I will go on with my family, job, friends, just as I do now. One thing I won't do is come on this board every day with my head on fire screaming the world is ending, like so many of you do.

 

[Circlejoe]

If he loses, my life will be just fine. I will go on with my family, job, friends, just as I do now. One thing I won't do is come on this board every day with my head on fire screaming the world is ending, like so many of you do.

This board was better when you posted less. Hopefully we will return to that previous time when this crisis is over.

 

[HillzHoozier]

If deaths level off mid-May as indicated, do we go back to some kind of new normal beginning in June?

 

[HillzHoozier]

This board was better when you posted less. Hopefully we will return to that previous time when this crisis is over.

#newnormal

 

[Daydreamer]

And yet none of what you said has changed since earlier this week or last week

Actually, it has. More states have instituted stay at home orders and some of the orders, like here in Indiana, have tightened. Everyone is recommended to wear a mask, which more people are doing. All in the last week.

 

[IUJIM]

This board was better when you posted less. Hopefully we will return to that previous time when this crisis is over.

Thanks, I know if I riled you I must have said something good

 

[hoot1]

Actually, it has. More states have instituted stay at home orders and some of the orders, like here in Indiana, have tightened. Everyone is recommended to wear a mask, which more people are doing. All in the last week.

Which is worse?

Not wearing a mask and limiting your social contact.

Or wearing a mask and going everywhere as if there weren't a problem.

 

[iuwclurker]

Which is worse?

Not wearing a mask and limiting your social contact.

Or wearing a mask and going everywhere as if there weren't a problem.

Stick your head in your ass and learn what trump’s world looks like.

 

[Daydreamer]

Which is worse?

Not wearing a mask and limiting your social contact.

Or wearing a mask and going everywhere as if there weren't a problem.

Probably not wearing a mask and not limiting your social contact.

 

[ButHerEmails]

The model now predicts the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That's about 12,000 fewer deaths -- and 121,000 fewer hospital beds -- than the model estimated just last Thursday.

the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html

Come on people it’s just the flu. 13k deaths in about 60 days and that’s with businesses closed, stay at home orders and people going crazy with masks, gloves, hand sanitizer and Lysol wipes. We don’t close restaurants and basically shut down entire states over the flu. You’d probably get stopped and questioned if you wore a mask into a store during peak flu season.

 

[HillzHoozier]

So does GM still need to pump out the ventilators?