Looking at Win %'s since 1995

Discussion in 'TheHoosier.com IU Hoop Forum' started by Paterfamilias, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    A post below got me thinking about how comparing win percentages can be pretty dependent on schedule strength. I did this thing a couple of years ago where I looked only at games vs NCAA Tournament qualifiers, then at only games vs teams who earned a Top 4 seeding. I had to do a little updating, but here's what I've got going back to the 1995 season.

    Out in the Win % column, the first number is win % vs NCAA qualifiers and the 2nd number is vs Top 4 seeds. The asterisk in the year column denotes seasons in which IU received a #6 seed or better. I think the rest is self explanatory. Anyway, if we look at only those seasons where IU got a #6 seed or better, IU was just a smidge under 50% vs Tournament qualifiers and about 37% vs Top 4 seeds. I'm thinking that this would be a minimal performance target to Keep fans from being too restless.

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    1 Paterfamilias, Feb 15, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2020 at 5:50 PM
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  2. RowdyHoosier

    RowdyHoosier Recruit
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    Most agree that CTC got a three year pass due to circumstances. So after that point results under him were a lot better than we are seeing with CAM. I think it's safe to say CAM walked into a much better situation than CTC. Give CAM a one year get out of jail free card and still worse results. I don't think this is going to fly and it shouldn't.
     
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  3. .Gerdis

    .Gerdis Junior
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    Thank you for doing this. Interesting that you denote seasons where we earned a top 6 seed as having an asterisk. You could have instead used an asterisk to denote those seasons where we didn’t receive an NCAA bid, but (sadly), that would have required quite a bit more work.
     
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  4. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    This is total bullshit why did you not go back to years 91,92,93 I’d like to see Knights numbers there come on pal manipulation of stats big time
     
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  5. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    Those years would show just how bad things are now....That was also a 64 team field those years poor by you
     
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  6. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    Waisted time
     
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  7. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    You figure in 9 years of Crean and 6 years Knight leaving out Knights best years of the 90s typical Apologist bullshit
     
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  8. Vern Pain

    Vern Pain Redshirt
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    No way in Hell does Crean n get a "three year pass". Whether "most agree" with that thinking or not, having worse results in year three than year two should warrant a pass.

    Archie walked into a a situation where the previous team finished 18-16 with a first round NIT loss. That team had JBJ and Thomas Bryant. They were gone before Archie showed. That left you with Rojo, Newkirk, Freddy McSwain, Freshman Durham, Freshman.Moore, Freshman Smith, etc. Not quite Crean's first year dilemma but pretty sucky.
     
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  9. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Our non-tourney teams (excluding Crean's first 3 seasons which really skew things) have won 23% of the time vs NCAA qualifiers and 16% of the time vs Top 4 seeds.
     
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  10. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    Why did u stop at 1995 oh I know why
     
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  11. Vern Pain

    Vern Pain Redshirt
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    He showed you a 25 year timeframe. Not the most arbitrary of numbers. Quit trying so hard to be a jacka##. It comes to you pretty easily.
     
    11 Vern Pain, Feb 15, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
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  12. Al Bino

    Al Bino All-Big Ten
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    Good grief CHILL out!

    Pater is a stats guy. If you think he is trying to put a good slant on Archies time then you are wrong and have obviously not read some of his posts.

    Quit being a dick.

    Also, learn how to us punctuation. You know, like . and ,.
     
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  13. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    I love Knight my man! Knight won in the high 50's vs NCAA qualifiers and around 42% vs Top 4 seeds in the years 85-94. I used those Knight years because everyone views them as the bad Knight years. If his bad years are as good, or better than anything since... we have a problem!
     
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  14. .Gerdis

    .Gerdis Junior
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    Sorry to be a pain, but how do things look removing just Crean years 1-2? IMHO, he deserves no pass for yr 3.
     
  15. snarlcakes

    snarlcakes Junior
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    *Some quick thoughts. Knight was still a pretty solid coach at the end of his tenure against tourney teams.

    *Sampson is a really good coach

    *Archie’s first year team benefited from an easy schedule

    *This years team is very similar to last years team
     
  16. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    Right but some of the mouth breathers here need to understand the way things should be
     
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  17. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Speaking of easy schedules, look again at Sampson. His second best win in his 2 years was against #4 seed Southern Illinois. I think they were unranked when we played them. I know Sampson is a good coach, but I honestly didn't care that much for his 2 IU teams. Had he stayed longer perhaps it would have been special, but I'm not a big believer!

    Also, some have argued, and I might have been one them, that Archie might have overachieved a little bit in year 1. I just can't get behind that now. That team was the only team besides Year 1 Crean that couldn't take down 1 tourney bound team.

    I'm not done with Archie yet though, hopefully he shows me something down the stretch to get me excited for next season.
     
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  18. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    Man did he kick the shit out of Kentucky though I think Jordan Crawford had like 30 was at that game awesome
     
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  19. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    Yea maybe Archie will resign like Davis did that would get me very excited for next year!
     
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  20. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Non-tourney teams (including yr 3 Crean) won 22% vs Tourney teams and 16% vs Top 4 seeds. Needed some rounding to get there, but the overall %'s didn't change much.
     
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  21. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    When I get back from the OTB, I'll post Knight's 85-94 seasons for ya. I need to look at it again anyway to make sure I'm remembering his old numbers correctly. I always stop these type things at 1985 though. I can't remember why. Was that when they first started seeding or was it the first 64 team field? I think it was the 64, but thought I should go ahead and let you know ahead of time why I don't go back further than 85:)
     
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  22. victorbear

    victorbear All-Big Ten
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    I think a very very very more telling comparison would b to look at Archie’s Ken Pom numbers while at Dayton and at IU, if any honest person would do that they would clearly see that what we are seeing as IU fans is basically what Archie did at Dayton, he just benefited from weaker opponents in Atlantic 10
     
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  23. snarlcakes

    snarlcakes Junior
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    I give Sampson a little bit of break because it was his 1st 2 years. Also, I think he was 3-4 & 0-3 in his 2nd season. I thought he was 22-4 when he got fired?

    I made the point during the summer Archie’s first year wasn’t that good because of the weak schedule and lack of wins against tourney teams. We also had some really bad losses.

    I’ve obviously given up on Archie. The regression on defense sealed it for me.
     
    23 snarlcakes, Feb 15, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
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  24. Paterfamilias

    Paterfamilias All-Big Ten
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    Yeah, It's been awhile since I originally compiled this and I just forgot to make the adjustment for the one Dakich lost.

    My main thing with Arch is I know he'll still be coaching next year, and I've thought all along that next season will be a culmination type of season. I would bet against him at this point, but I lose a lot of bets:)
     
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  25. Radio Zero

    Radio Zero Freshman
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    Thanks for some interesting stuff.
     
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  26. .Gerdis

    .Gerdis Junior
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    agree on the culmination type of season opinion. I thought that this year and next should be Miller’s version of 2012-2013 for Crean. Not saying I expected to win 27 games this year and 29 (with a number one seed) next season, but I thought it would mirror the progression. Top 6 NCAA seed this year, another jump next year, then the wheels fall off just like they did in 2014 (roster turns over).

    I know, the two of us have talked about this before, VBG
     
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