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Likelihood of landing Miller replacements

MikeHoncho69

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Jan 15, 2018
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What are the board's thoughts on the likelihood of landing the following coaching candidates:

- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach)
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach)
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach)
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach)
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach)
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach)
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach)
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach)
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant)
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant)
 
I could add to that list a few realistic candidates, but the fact is our chattering about it doesn't matter, they'll pick who they pick, and that will only happen when they envision a loss of $$$ over the current product. We are getting close to that though if they lose out, which I expect
 
What are the board's thoughts on the likelihood of landing the following coaching candidates:

- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach)
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach)
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach)
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach)
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach)
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach)
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach)
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach)
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant)
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant)
Stevens - 5% if fired. 0% if he isn’t fired.
Donovan - 5% if fired. 0% if he isn’t fired.
Beard - 0%
Drew - 15% depending on compensation offered.
Muscleman - 20% depending on compensation offered.
Oats - <5%. Bama can match our offer and there is 0 pressure there.
Moser - 0% as he isn’t going to be considered.
Alford - 5%. Will only be considered as a last resort.
Woodson - 0%. Won’t be considered.
Fife - 0%. Won’t be considered.


Now to add some realistic options to the list.

Beilein - 70%.
Matta - 50%. Depends on if he wants a big gig to come back to coaching or not.
McDermott - 25% depending on compensation offered.

Matta and Beilein should be the calls after Stevens and Donovan say no.
 
Stevens - 5% if fired. 0% if he isn’t fired.
Donovan - 5% if fired. 0% if he isn’t fired.
Beard - 0%
Drew - 15% depending on compensation offered.
Muscleman - 20% depending on compensation offered.
Oats - <5%. Bama can match our offer and there is 0 pressure there.
Moser - 0% as he isn’t going to be considered.
Alford - 5%. Will only be considered as a last resort.
Woodson - 0%. Won’t be considered.
Fife - 0%. Won’t be considered.


Now to add some realistic options to the list.

Beilein - 70%.
Matta - 50%. Depends on if he wants a big gig to come back to coaching or not.
McDermott - 25% depending on compensation offered.

Matta and Beilein should be the calls after Stevens and Donovan say no.

No, they all should be called, and others too. I still question if that's not what FG did with Archie: focused in on him, vs conducting a thorough search. The most likely way to find a "program changer" is a thorough search. Who knows last time that might have landed us Holtman or Beard, or ??? Contact them all, then build your interview list and don't get locked in on the "hot" prospect.

While normally not a fan of committees and bureacracy, but in this case, definitely you should have a small and trusted committee. You're only going to be interviewing "good" candidates who will be impressive so you need to hear from others you trust and you also need some coaching input to identify the up and coming candidates. Someone like a Jay Bilas, or similar, who sees lots of programs and staffs and might be aware of a diamond in the rough somewhere.
 
What are the board's thoughts on the likelihood of landing the following coaching candidates:

- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach)
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach)
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach)
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach)
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach)
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach)
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach)
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach)
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant)
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant)

Assuming you mean the likelihood given the job is actually offered? Alford would 100% take the job if he was offered, but there's a 0% chance IU is reaching out.

- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach).........if fired 10%
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach)......0%
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach).........1%
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach)...........15%
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach)...........30%
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach).......10%
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach).........35%
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach)..........100%
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant).......0%
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant)........15%
 
- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach).........if fired 10%
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach)......0%
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach).........1%
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach)...........15%
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach)...........30%
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach).......10%
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach).........35%
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach)..........100% if offered
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant).......0%
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant)........15%

Lol. Fife and Moser would come in a second if offered. Drew and Musselman would be over 50% assuming the compensation ia right. Thinking $6M+ for either.
 
Lol. Fife and Moser would come in a second if offered. Drew and Musselman would be over 50% assuming the compensation ia right. Thinking $6M+ for either.

Fife is going to be the MSU coach within the next 5 years. No chance he'd 100% take the IU job. The fact that he hasn't been hired away from MSU furthers that notion. Moser will be the hottest commodity on the market this year. Depending on the other jobs opening, could sway Moser a different way. Scott Drew has been at Baylor 20 years and may win the national title this year. How many coaches have walked away from a 20+ year tenure after having the #1 team in the country the two years prior? Drew would be long gone by now if he was that ready to leave Baylor. Musselman (other than Alford) is the likeliest candidate in that pool to take the IU job.
 
Assuming you mean the likelihood given the job is actually offered? Alford would 100% take the job if he was offered, but there's a 0% chance IU is reaching out.

- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach).........if fired 10%
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach)......0%
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach).........1%
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach)...........15%
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach)...........30%
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach).......10%
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach).........35%
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach)..........100%
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant).......0%
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant)........15%
IU would be more likely to reach out to Alford today than they ever were previously (they didn’t before, as I’ve said). I’m not saying he’d be offered, but he’s in a better spot now than he was previously.
 
IU would be more likely to reach out to Alford today than they ever were previously (they didn’t before, as I’ve said). I’m not saying he’d be offered, but he’s in a better spot now than he was previously.

IU's had 4 chances to hire Alford and haven't once reached out. I don't see it happening....ever. Watching his team not even try last night against Utah State doesn't help his cause either.
 
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IU's had 4 chances to hire Alford and haven't once reached out. I don't see it happening....ever. Watching his team not even try last night against Utah State doesn't help his cause either.
I think it’s a long shot, but I don’t think that door is completely shut. There are still some people connected to IU that have a relationship with SA, and they would be his advocates. On a larger scale, I think many IU fans vastly overestimate the appeal of the IU job in the coaching community. There’s an ample recruiting budget and very good facilities, but it’s always about people and leadership, and those haven’t been IU strengths for some time.
 
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I think it’s a long shot, but I don’t that door is completely shut. There are still some people connected to IU that have a relationship with SA, and they would be his advocates. On a larger scale, I think many IU fans vastly overestimate the appeal of the IU job in the coaching community. There’s an ample recruiting budget and very good facilities, but it’s always about people and leadership, and those haven’t been IU strengths for some time.

The IU job definitely still has plenty of curb appeal but the idea that you have to be at a traditional basketball school to win big no longer exists. The job has major appeal to young, up and coming coaches looking to get their feet wet because IU has inherent advantages that you're not likely to find at the average school. But to an established coach that has everything going for him at his current gig, there's a big downside walking into a job that isn't what its fan base perceives it to be that needs to achieve results overnight. The right coach can and will turn IU around. Who that may be? TBD.
 
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Fife is going to be the MSU coach within the next 5 years. No chance he'd 100% take the IU job. The fact that he hasn't been hired away from MSU furthers that notion. Moser will be the hottest commodity on the market this year. Depending on the other jobs opening, could sway Moser a different way. Scott Drew has been at Baylor 20 years and may win the national title this year. How many coaches have walked away from a 20+ year tenure after having the #1 team in the country the two years prior? Drew would be long gone by now if he was that ready to leave Baylor. Musselman (other than Alford) is the likeliest candidate in that pool to take the IU job.
agree...I know Fife went to IU but he has always been a state of Michigan kid. I think he's just waiting out Izzo. And Beard's gig at TT is better right now than what IU has to offer. More recent success, less pressure, less fanatical fan base. Family. Take Beard off these lists too. And pls stop adding Brad. We really have to move on.
 
I think it’s a long shot, but I don’t think that door is completely shut. There are still some people connected to IU that have a relationship with SA, and they would be his advocates. On a larger scale, I think many IU fans vastly overestimate the appeal of the IU job in the coaching community. There’s an ample recruiting budget and very good facilities, but it’s always about people and leadership, and those haven’t been IU strengths for some time.

I used to think the administration was a huge hindrance then I saw what Allen and Moren have done the last couple seasons. If you are a good coach you win. Period.
 
The IU job definitely still has plenty of curb appeal but the idea that you have to be at a traditional basketball school to win big no longer exists. The job has major appeal to young, up and coming coaches looking to get their feet wet because IU has inherent advantages that you're not likely to find at the average school. But to an established coach that has everything going for him at his current gig, there's a big downside walking into a job that isn't what its fan base perceives it to be that needs to achieve results overnight. The right coach can and will turn IU around. Who that may be? TBD.
The biggest factor you’re ignoring, though, is IU’s recent history of poor leadership. Coaches with options look at IU compared to other schools and see the gap that exists. There are components to IU that will always make it look attractive, but we fail spectacularly at the people part of this, and that’s a huge and limiting factor that works against us.
 
The biggest factor you’re ignoring, though, is IU’s recent history of poor leadership. Coaches with options look at IU compared to other schools and see the gap that exists. There are components to IU that will always make it look attractive, but we fail spectacularly at the people part of this, and that’s a huge and limiting factor that works against us.

People say this every time we have an opening but we still always get a decent name they just haven't worked out. We first hired Sampson who was a P5 coach with a FF and Elite 8 and numerous tourney births on his record. When Sampson was fired the program was an absolute dumpster fire but we still landed a coach from a top 25 program with a FF. And Archie was arguably the hottest name on the market. OSU, Illinois, and NC ST would've killed to hire him.

UK hired Tubby and Billy Clyde. UNC hired Guthridge and Doherty. We just need to find our Cal or Roy.
 
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My recollection may be off but weren't CTC and CAM more or less suprise hires? Neither being widely talked about, at least on these forums? I would look for it to be no different next time.
 
The biggest factor you’re ignoring, though, is IU’s recent history of poor leadership. Coaches with options look at IU compared to other schools and see the gap that exists. There are components to IU that will always make it look attractive, but we fail spectacularly at the people part of this, and that’s a huge and limiting factor that works against us.

IU's done just fine in several other sports. This leadership quality, or lack thereof, is simply a talking point of yours that lacks serious merit. IU has a nationally renowned soccer program. A top 10 current WBB team. A baseball program that is one of the best in all of the midwest that has hired three great coaches consecutively. Not to mention a football program that is on a serious upswing.
 
People say this every time we have an opening but we still always get a decent name they just haven't worked out. We first hired Sampson who was a P5 coach with a FF and Elite 8 and numerous tourney births on his record. When Sampson was fired the program was an absolute dumpster fire but we still landed a coach from a top 25 program with a FF. And Archie was arguably the hottest name on the market. OSU, Illinois, and NC ST would've killed to hire him.
At best, we chose poorly in three of the last four scenarios, and the one that is most defensible is the one we’re talking about needing to replace. That’s no accident. Success leaves clues. So does failure. We’ve failed four straight times. There’s a reason.
 
My recollection may be off but weren't CTC and CAM more or less suprise hires? Neither being widely talked about, at least on these forums? I would look for it to be no different next time.
I remember Miller being the expected hire of Stevens and Donovan wouldn’t take the job. He was definitely the hottest young coach at the time.
 
My recollection may be off but weren't CTC and CAM more or less suprise hires? Neither being widely talked about, at least on these forums? I would look for it to be no different next time.

CTC was probably the best that IU was going to get at the time once all the dust settled. The incoming coach was set to inherent a completely devoid roster with zero scholarship players. It's been awhile but I do believe the IU brass reached out to Bennett, Few, and maybe even Calipari and none of them had any interest. Sean Miller may have garnished interest as well.

I think Archie was IU's clear cut #1 from the get go. The Donovan rumors were nothing but smoke and Stevens had zero interest, and why would he? Holtmann privately declined the job before he was even offered and Archie was the best available name on the market.
 
Matta - 50%. Depends on if he wants a big gig to come back to coaching or not.
I've mentioned this in another thread or two. Matta isn't coming to Indiana after an Archie firing. Both Sean and Archie are in his coaching tree and that's reason enough for him steer clear if he decides to coach again.
 
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agree...I know Fife went to IU but he has always been a state of Michigan kid. I think he's just waiting out Izzo. And Beard's gig at TT is better right now than what IU has to offer. More recent success, less pressure, less fanatical fan base. Family. Take Beard off these lists too. And pls stop adding Brad. We really have to move on.
Beard may well be "different" and in his dream job, but there are many advantages to IU over TX Tech that would appeal to anyone interested in buiding a truly nationally prominent program, national title contention and conference dominance. Tx Tech will always be a football first school, and it's going to be very hard to get over the KS/TX/OK/Now Baylor top dogs. When committing $ and resources, football will always get their itch scratched first. IU has the facilities and salary to make that happen. So, he may be in his dream job and perfectly happy but there are advantages that would appeal to a Coach wanting to win NC's and be elite in his conference. While I love his approach and style of play, there are still questions surrounding Beard: 1) can he deal with being the top program with the brightest and hottest glare? 2) can he recruit well enough? He's done it mostly at TX Tech with transfers, and made it work, but that's a hard "system" to project long-term success with. He definitely should be high on the list and he may well not be interested, but there are still question marks surrounding him, which is why I continue to say: "conduct an exhaustive search!"
 
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Beard may well be "different" and in his dream job, but there are many advantages to IU over TX Tech that would appeal to anyone interested in buiding a truly nationally prominent program, national title contention and conference dominance. Tx Tech will always be a football first school, and it's going to be very hard to get over the KS/TX/OK/Now Baylor top dogs. When committing $ and resources, football will always get their itch scratched first. IU has the facilities and salary to make that happen. So, he may be in his dream job and perfectly happy but there are advantages that would appeal to a Coach wanting to win NC's and be elite in his conference. While I love his approach and style of play, there are still questions surrounding Beard: 1) can he deal with being the top program with the brightest and hottest glare? 2) can he recruit well enough? He's done it mostly at TX Tech with transfers, and made it work, but that's a hard "system" to project long-term success with. He definitely should be high on the list and he may well not be interested, but there are still question marks surrounding him, which is why I continue to say: "conduct an exhaustive search!"

I think there's on job Beard would leave TTU for yesterday and it's the University of Texas, his alma mater.
 
Beard may well be "different" and in his dream job, but there are many advantages to IU over TX Tech that would appeal to anyone interested in buiding a truly nationally prominent program, national title contention and conference dominance. Tx Tech will always be a football first school, and it's going to be very hard to get over the KS/TX/OK/Now Baylor top dogs. When committing $ and resources, football will always get their itch scratched first. IU has the facilities and salary to make that happen. So, he may be in his dream job and perfectly happy but there are advantages that would appeal to a Coach wanting to win NC's and be elite in his conference. While I love his approach and style of play, there are still questions surrounding Beard: 1) can he deal with being the top program with the brightest and hottest glare? 2) can he recruit well enough? He's done it mostly at TX Tech with transfers, and made it work, but that's a hard "system" to project long-term success with. He definitely should be high on the list and he may well not be interested, but there are still question marks surrounding him, which is why I continue to say: "conduct an exhaustive search!"
don't get me wrong...I would LOVE to hear that Beard was even 'interested'.
But, seeing what he has going on down there....versus what's going on in the IU program, the fan base, etc....well unlike Cavanagh I'm not a gambling man, so maybe that's why I think he'd be nuts to jump.
And let's be honest...there's still probably a 50/50 chance we'll be having this exact convo again in 12 months about CAM's replacement.
 
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this and similar existing threads are carbon copies of the threads the last 3 times we went looking for a coach.

it's almost like the same bots posting.

reminds me of Einstein's definition of insanity.

we keep doing the same thing, hiring one of the numerous flavors of the day with no connection to IU or the state, giving out a big contract, and wondering what went wrong.

again, lots of guys can coach.

this isn't about who can coach the best, as if that was even objectively measurable outside a duplicate bridge scenario..

this isn't about who made an unexpected run in the tourney the last couple yrs.

those guys pop up every yr, and more so than not, the magic doesn't travel.

this is about who can best sell IU to high level recruits, their families, and coaches, and do so with class and integrity.

and that person's prime agenda going in won't be locking in the most money for the most yrs with the biggest and most extended buyout.
 
this and similar existing threads are carbon copies of the threads the last 3 times we went looking for a coach.

it's almost like the same bots posting.

reminds me of Einstein's definition of insanity.

we keep doing the same thing, hiring one of the numerous flavors of the day with no connection to IU or the state, giving out a big contract, and wondering what went wrong.

again, lots of guys can coach.

this isn't about who can coach the best, as if that was even objectively measurable outside a duplicate bridge scenario..

this isn't about who made an unexpected run in the tourney the last couple yrs.

those guys pop up every yr, and more so than not, the magic doesn't travel.

this is about who can best sell IU to high level recruits, their families, and coaches, and do so with class and integrity.

and that person's prime agenda going in won't be locking in the most money for the most yrs with the biggest and most extended buyout.

Steve Alford and Randy Wittman don't fit that bill. Sorry.
 
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- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach) not happening
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach) just signed a contract with Chicago, definitely not happening
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach) not leaving Texas
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach) this administration isn't touching him
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach) the Arkansas administration had to be talked into taking him on. We're not going to take him
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach) Probably the most realistic of all
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach) People would probably call him a poor man's Archie
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach) please, can we stop. 30 years of coaching and not been past the sweet 16.
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant) zero college experience. Highly doubt any high school kids know he is.
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant) we could probably get him, but are we gonna hand over the reigns to someone that doesn't have a winning percentage for his career coaching?
 
like i said, like the same bots posting every time this comes up.

how's that been working out?

go troll elsewhere.

Bot? LOL.

You just said this

this is about who can best sell IU to high level recruits, their families, and coaches, and do so with class and integrity.

Alford's handling of the Pierre Pierce rape case should exclude him from ever coaching basketball again. The fact that he's been re-hired three additional times is even more incredible than the idea that he somehow should get the Indiana job.
 
- Brad Stevens (Boston Celtics head coach) not happening
- Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls head coach) just signed a contract with Chicago, definitely not happening
- Chris Beard (Texas Tech head coach) not leaving Texas
- Scott Drew (Baylor head coach) this administration isn't touching him
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas head coach) the Arkansas administration had to be talked into taking him on. We're not going to take him
- Nate Oats (Alabama head coach) Probably the most realistic of all
- Porter Moser (Loyola-Chicago head coach) People would probably call him a poor man's Archie
- Steve Alford (Nevada head coach) please, can we stop. 30 years of coaching and not been past the sweet 16.
- Mike Woodson (New York Knicks assistant) zero college experience. Highly doubt any high school kids know he is.
- Dane Fife (Michigan State assistant) we could probably get him, but are we gonna hand over the reigns to someone that doesn't have a winning percentage for his career coaching?


What was the issue with Musselman?
 
Stevens - 5% if fired. 0% if he isn’t fired.
Donovan - 5% if fired. 0% if he isn’t fired.
Beard - 0%
Drew - 15% depending on compensation offered.
Muscleman - 20% depending on compensation offered.
Oats - <5%. Bama can match our offer and there is 0 pressure there.
Moser - 0% as he isn’t going to be considered.
Alford - 5%. Will only be considered as a last resort.
Woodson - 0%. Won’t be considered.
Fife - 0%. Won’t be considered.


Now to add some realistic options to the list.

Beilein - 70%.
Matta - 50%. Depends on if he wants a big gig to come back to coaching or not.
McDermott - 25% depending on compensation offered.

Matta and Beilein should be the calls after Stevens and Donovan say no.
No they shouldn’t. They are old and with Beilein we would be back to coaching searches in a few years.
 
No they shouldn’t. They are old and with Beilein we would be back to coaching searches in a few years.
Matta is 53. That’s not old. Beilein could be here for 5-6 years, turn the program around, and make it significantly more attractive for a great hire in 5-6 years. Give me 5-6 years of Beilein over hiring another coach with a short track record for success.
 
What was the issue with Musselman?

Nothing horrible. He's got a very, very intense personality that rubs a lot of people the wrong way that I highly doubt the Indiana administration would want to deal with.

Me personally, I would love to have him here. He'd probably be my first choice. I think he'd crush it, but politics will play a role and he probably won't get a sniff.
 
Bot? LOL.

You just said this



Alford's handling of the Pierre Pierce rape case should exclude him from ever coaching basketball again. The fact that he's been re-hired three additional times is even more incredible than the idea that he somehow should get the Indiana job.
Or maybe they know more about what happened then people out of the loop.
 
Matta is 53. That’s not old. Beilein could be here for 5-6 years, turn the program around, and make it significantly more attractive for a great hire in 5-6 years. Give me 5-6 years of Beilein over hiring another coach with a short track record for success.
I don’t mind Matta if he’s healthy. I want a coach that is good and wants to be at Indiana for years like Dukes coach.
 
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Or maybe they know more about what happened then people out of the loop.

It's pretty well-documented. Pierre Pierce was accused of rape before the start of basketball season his freshman year. Alford went so far overboard in defending his innocence that he arranged a meeting between Pierce and his accuser and tried to solve the issue by going to a prayer group. This prompted her to file criminal charges. Alford continued to defend Pierce even as he pleaded to a lesser charge and re-instated him only to have him rob his ex-girlfriend's apartment while attacking her. Dude served time in prison. Alford is a dirt bag.
 
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