Zags also 0-10 vs #1's and #2's in last 20 tourney's. Wisconsin, who's rise in hoops mirrors that of Gonzaga, is 5-6 vs top 2 seeds in last 20. Few ever take Wisky as Champs in their Brackets, while the Zags remain darlings of Selection Sunday.
Last 20 NCAA Tourney's IU has 3 wins vs Top 4 seeds, same as the Zags
- Thread starter Paterfamilias
- Start date
I've been saying this for awhile. They often get 1 seeds or at least high seeds so they have a paved path for deep runs every year. They pad that ability to get a high seed with their name and stacking wins in the MWC but man, they flop more often than most. They're definitely a solid program now-a-days but are almost always over rated when comparing them to the top teams.
Wisconsin is used to playing ugly, it's their MO. Gonzaga isn't built that way. Arkansas isn't even that good, but what I've seen of this Gonzaga team wasn't too impressive either.
I think Gonzaga is a fascinating program to study.
One thing I think many are discounting is the steady improvement Few has had over his years at Gonzaga. Most have the perception that Gonzaga has been at number 1 seed level for 20 years. And I think that's causing too many to panic with the recent "non Natty" results. I haven't looked it up. They may have had a 1 seed at some point a ways back, maybe back when Morrison was there? But them being a 1 seed, top overall seed, Natty favorite, etc... is a relatively recent development for Gonzaga.
Few took over an emerging program. His first step was starting to increase talent level, so the WCC dominance was expected, but also so Sweet 16s weren't "Cinderella runs" any more. It took him a few years, but that happened. The next phase was becoming a legitimate Final Four contender. That took him a little while, actually. But eventually he broke through, and they became that type of program. The next step was becoming a legit national title contender. That's the most recent improvement. And its only been in the last 5 years or so that he's gotten them there. They've been to multiple final fours since then, and last years team was undefeated heading into the Natty game.
At some point they'll break through and win 6 in a row. He hasn't rested on his laurels yet, I bet he takes notice of the types of teams he's lost to in the last few years, and gets to work in the transfer portal to bring in the Villanova, Arkansas, Baylor, Houston type of kids that are obviously the mold for NCAA tournament success.
One thing I think many are discounting is the steady improvement Few has had over his years at Gonzaga. Most have the perception that Gonzaga has been at number 1 seed level for 20 years. And I think that's causing too many to panic with the recent "non Natty" results. I haven't looked it up. They may have had a 1 seed at some point a ways back, maybe back when Morrison was there? But them being a 1 seed, top overall seed, Natty favorite, etc... is a relatively recent development for Gonzaga.
Few took over an emerging program. His first step was starting to increase talent level, so the WCC dominance was expected, but also so Sweet 16s weren't "Cinderella runs" any more. It took him a few years, but that happened. The next phase was becoming a legitimate Final Four contender. That took him a little while, actually. But eventually he broke through, and they became that type of program. The next step was becoming a legit national title contender. That's the most recent improvement. And its only been in the last 5 years or so that he's gotten them there. They've been to multiple final fours since then, and last years team was undefeated heading into the Natty game.
At some point they'll break through and win 6 in a row. He hasn't rested on his laurels yet, I bet he takes notice of the types of teams he's lost to in the last few years, and gets to work in the transfer portal to bring in the Villanova, Arkansas, Baylor, Houston type of kids that are obviously the mold for NCAA tournament success.
I have a pretty decent rating in the overall ESPN tourney (99.7%), but I took a look at the first page of the leaderboard and of the top 50 brackets on there, exactly 0 picked Gonzaga as champion. Many Purdues, and even a few AR or UNC's but not a single Gonzaga. Thought that was interesting.
I think Gonzaga has developed a nice consistency as of late. They have a good year, then return a couple key players and start the following year highly rated. The returning stability allows them to win some quality non-conf games early in the year, and then they cruise through the WCC, resulting in a high seed. However, that setup is perfect for a good but not great team to get highly seeded
While this may have been one of Gonzaga's most consistently highly rated teams on the year, I think it was actually their weakest team since 2016. They were a good team, but probably closer the the 10th best team in the country rather than 1st
I saw somewhere that Gonzaga was picked as champs the most at like 28%. They were picked to the Elite 8 by 80% and Final Four by over 50%. It's pretty hard to be in the Top 50, so Gonzaga's loss to the Pigs last night probably dropped a bunch out of the Top 50.
Agreed.
I just think Few will pivot now, and will start bringing in Villanova/Baylor/Houston type wings. And it won't be long before he wins a natty.
He's tried the "Duke" route of late. And that has led to the results you mention. He's shown an ability to change and grow and adapt while at Gonzaga, when he certainly didn't have to.
Gonzaga is this era’s UNLV, a powerhouse program dominating a west coast mid-major conference. Let’s see of they can finally break through like the Runnin‘ Rebels did.
Gonzaga's first #2 seed was 2004, then they got #3's in 2005 and 2006. They followed that up with a 6 year slump outside of the "Championship Seed" range (#1-#3). Since 2013 they have been seeded #1 or #2 six times in nine tourneys.
I mostly agree with what you are saying here. I just think it's crazy the love they get. Beautiful basketball and all that jazz. People hate Wisconsin, but Wisconsin has actually shown that they can beat the Top teams on the big stage, while the Zags have not done it a single time since way back in the day when they were just a cute Cinderella story.
Beautiful Basketball don't look so beautiful when all the chips are in. Hell, IU can look like a beauty when they play mid-major competition, but the mirror cracks once Big Ten play starts.
Agreed. I just happen to believe that Few will pivot and adjust his style. He's only a handful of years into being a national title level program. It should be obvious to him now that the "beautiful ball" style won't get him a Natty.
He has the luxury of using whatever style he wants, and he'll still see similar levels of regular season success, which will lead to high seeding in the tournament. If he goes and gets some more junk yard dog type players in the portal the next few years, he'll hang a banner.
The downfall of Gonzaga wasn't being a post oriented team, it was that their guards weren't all that good (relative to what guards need to be for a deep tournament run)
At the end of the day it's Few that gives them the chance to overachieve. He's got a leg-up with getting some guys into the NBA lottery and that helps to get who he wants going forward. And if I was Chet Holmgren, I sure would prefer the WCC to playing in the B10 or SEC. But I agree with IUNorth he needs to change his player profile going forward.
Yeah... Few is awesome! What has set me off a bit on Gonzaga is a stupid gambling podcast that I listened to prior to selection Sunday. The host and his guests talked for several minutes about the Gonzaga "Mystique", saying that the first problem for opposing coaches was convincing their players that they even could win. They compared it to UCLA under Wooden and K at Duke!
I was like WTF! They get bounced every time they bump into another high seed. Anyway, it was just a gambling pod, but the one dude says that he's heard this from coaches and not just WCC coaches either. Just thought it was weird and not at all backed up by W's vs the best! Still one of the great stories of college hoops though.
Hope so. Memphis was my surprise F4 pick, so if AR could surprise Duke, I'd benefit from all the others losing Zags and Duke. I still have 3 of my 4 left: UCLA, Kansas and Nova. Final was UCLA v Kansas and Kansas champ.
Remy Martin has breathed new life into Kansas. But as of today I'm liking Houston a lot.
First time I'd watched them all year. Their guards sure left something to be desired. And the big freshman, while a nice player, sure didn't look like the #1 player in the class.
99.7 percentile Nice! I got destroyed last weekend on the bracket, but I think I've still got a few alive. I know I had Purdue in the FF, so we'll face off there, but I'll be for the Bruins anyway (if they both win tonight). I know I knocked off the Zags kind of early myself, I might've had Memphis beating them too... heck I think I might've even had Boise St
Yep, I'm going to be rooting for UCLA! It gets unbearable here when UNC is winning, especially unexpectedly (although I've thought they have a great starting 5 all year) and now the Bruins get the chance to take them and the Boilers out! Go Mick (and Michael)!99.7 percentile Nice! I got destroyed last weekend on the bracket, but I think I've still got a few alive. I know I had Purdue in the FF, so we'll face off there, but I'll be for the Bruins anyway (if they both win tonight). I know I knocked off the Zags kind of early myself, I might've had Memphis beating them too... heck I think I might've even had Boise St
Also, will say that their team last year was legit, although a bit overrated. This year, not so much.
With the Zags, it's not IF they lose but WHEN they lose in the tournament. Maybe Few will get the title in a few years.
Gonzaga has changed the last few years. Not the same Gonzaga that started that streak. Now getting high level recruits where before they were more based on developed talent.
They'll be back ..
I too am Paterfamilias. Nice post! I took them to final 4. I guess I got suckered too. I always appreciate your stats. Well done.
True, but I think it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Suggs was great, but 1-and-done. I'm guessing that Chet is moving on as well. Where I think Few has knocked it out of the park is with the transfers he's brought in.
I'd be surprised if anybody has been taken by the Zags more than me over the years. I'm a sucker for pretty basketball!
Similar threads
