Johns Hopkins Researcher Confirms a HillzHoozier Hypothesis

HillzHoozier

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"Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths."

And...

"Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."
 
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Marvin the Martian

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"Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths."

And...

"Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."
If you have time, ask her why doctors working on a patient cannot tell the difference between COVID and a heart attack? Are our doctors that bad?

Then ask her where my math is wrong at https://indiana.forums.rivals.com/threads/indiana-got-a-lot-more-red-this-week.202933/post-3044515. Simple math shows we will end over 300,000 deaths this year and in 2018 that number was 280,000. How does she say that is not more. Since you say it, how do you say it is not more?
 

HillzHoozier

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If you have time, ask her why doctors working on a patient cannot tell the difference between COVID and a heart attack? Are our doctors that bad?

Then ask her where my math is wrong at https://indiana.forums.rivals.com/threads/indiana-got-a-lot-more-red-this-week.202933/post-3044515. Simple math shows we will end over 300,000 deaths this year and in 2018 that number was 280,000. How does she say that is not more. Since you say it, how do you say it is not more?
The information given goes completely against what you've been led to believe, so I understand your reluctance to consider it. What about the last 2 lines on this chart:

 
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Marvin the Martian

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The information given goes completely against what you've been led to believe, so I understand your reluctance to consider it. What about the last 2 lines on this chart:

COVID follows the same rules as flu, if you have the flu and die the flu is the cause.

But big picture, we will lose about 300,000 more people from February 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 than in 2018-19. Why is that not more deaths? You keep arguing 300,000 + deaths are the same number.
 
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HillzHoozier

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COVID follows the same rules as flu, if you have the flu and die the flu is the cause.

But big picture, we will lose about 300,000 more people from February 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 than in 2018-19. Why is that not more deaths? You keep arguing 300,000 + deaths are the same number.
I don't believe that the numbers you based your projections upon are accurate. I don't think you're intentionally misleading anyone, I think you believe the story we're being told about the pandemic. I believe fear is driving the hospitalizations. I believe there are political and financial motives behind driving the fear narrative, and I don't fault anyone for having trouble with the ideas I have presented here.

I do hope the outcomes prove me correct for the sake of those "excess" lives others project will be lost. I also hope a few who look at the links I have provided will begin to question their experts, especially where the 'consensus' runs contrary to 'common sensus'.
 

CO. Hoosier

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"Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths."

And...

"Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."
I agree with you. I've tried to make that point here a few times as I compared my chances of dying in the next year as if Covid didn't exist and my chances of dying with Covid present. The difference is really small. The analytical path followed by Yanni Gu and Genevieve Briand in your link makes sense to me. One might say it makes too much sense, since Hopkins has pulled down some of this. There are many anecdotal examples of how the death Covid death rate has been inflated over the months. Some of those have been discussed here.

The link poses this question:

"This [data] comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?" The answer is easy. Like everything else in 2020, we anxiously converted every issue to a political issue. Covid was not only a scientific and health issue (like measles or polio) but those with political objectives quickly made it political. A frightened population in part caused by overstating death rates serves a political purpose. The media, whose stock in trade is hyperbole and controversy piled on.

Not sure I totally buy the notion that Covid has no effect on death rates, but I firmly believe that the death rates have been overstated.
 
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Marvin the Martian

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I don't believe that the numbers you based your projections upon are accurate. I don't think you're intentionally misleading anyone, I think you believe the story we're being told about the pandemic. I believe fear is driving the hospitalizations. I believe there are political and financial motives behind driving the fear narrative, and I don't fault anyone for having trouble with the ideas I have presented here.

I do hope the outcomes prove me correct for the sake of those "excess" lives others project will be lost. I also hope a few who look at the links I have provided will begin to question their experts, especially where the 'consensus' runs contrary to 'common sensus'.
You posted a link in that thread with numbers, I used those numbers.
 

mcmurtry66

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I agree with you. I've tried to make that point here a few times as I compared my chances of dying in the next as if Covid didn't exist and my chances of dying with Covid present. The difference is really small. I the analytical path followed by Yanni Gu and Genevieve Briand in your link makes sense to me. One might say it makes too much sense, since Hopkins has pulled down some of this. There are many anecdotal examples of how the death Covid death rate has been inflated over the months. Some of those have been discussed here.

The link poses this question:

"This [data] comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?" The answer is easy. Like everything else in 2020, we anxiously converted every issue to a political issue. Covid was not only a scientific and health issue (like measles or polio) but those with political objectives quickly made it political. A frightened population in part caused by overstating death rates serves a political purpose. The media, whose stock in trade is hyperbole and controversy piled on.

Not sure I totally buy the notion that Covid has no effect on death rates, but I firmly believe that the death rates have been overstated.
Lots of good information here Hillz. Well done. And i agree with your take on this COH, per usual. i think what we've found is that a significant number of folks with poor cardio suffered from covid becoming sicker than they otherwise should have been; and covid largely expedited the deaths of those already dying. hospitalizations sound scary but the figures of those hospitalized is negligible in relation to the population - it's just that our icu equipment and staff is very small. too much fear mongering by the media (and on this board to be fair with what were endless posts for months about number of cases and rarely ever about death rates).

the ultimate issue is that our hospitalization is only equipped to deal with a small amount of serious cases (of any variety) so it poses a massive issue in handling a pandemic.
 

Bulk VanderHuge

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I'm just glad the election is over, so that all the libs in this country can stop promoting "The Hoax" and we can all go back to being 100% selfish without the judgement of the other people in the grocery stores, restaurants, hospitals, and halls of Congress, and the wingnuts can go back to joining hands and yelling "Freedom" in each others' faces without having those pesky Antifa jerks ripping up their Confederate flags.
 

CO. Hoosier

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Lots of good information here Hillz. Well done. And i agree with your take on this COH, per usual. i think what we've found is that a significant number of folks with poor cardio suffered from covid becoming sicker than they otherwise should have been; and covid largely expedited the deaths of those already dying. hospitalizations sound scary but the figures of those hospitalized is negligible in relation to the population - it's just that our icu equipment and staff is very small. too much fear mongering by the media (and on this board to be fair with what were endless posts for months about number of cases and rarely ever about death rates).

the ultimate issue is that our hospitalization is only equipped to deal with a small amount of serious cases (of any variety) so it poses a massive issue in handling a pandemic.
A 99 year old friend of mine died in September. He was in very poor health and his life expectancy was probably measured in months if not weeks before Covid. He died of pneumonia caused by the Covid virus. People in his condition usualy die of pneumonia regardless Covid. Yet his death is listed as a Covid death. While Covid was a "cause" of death, it shouldn't be included in the pandemic data; yet it is. I'm guessing there are thousands of similar cases.
 

Bulk VanderHuge

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Have faith man . . . .The libs are just getting warmed up. I'm waiting for my re-education camp assignment.
Nah...all the Trumplicans claimed the "Chinavirus" would go away on November 4, so I'm sure it just takes awhile for inertia to settle in. I hope all those health care front-line types are ready for all the scorn they deserve for faking all those hours they said they were at "work" "caring" for "sick" "patients", and I'm ready to make fun of those families who said they "lost" "loved" ones while not being able to be by their sides...because we all really know, deep down inside, that never really happened...at all.
 
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UncleMark

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A 99 year old friend of mine died in September. He was in very poor health and his life expectancy was probably measured in months if not weeks before Covid. He died of pneumonia caused by the Covid virus. People in his condition usualy die of pneumonia regardless Covid. Yet his death is listed as a Covid death. While Covid was a "cause" of death, it shouldn't be included in the pandemic data; yet it is. I'm guessing there are thousands of similar cases.
If he'd died in a car wreck should that have been counted as a traffic fatality? I mean, he was going to die soon anyway.
 

HillzHoozier

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You posted a link in that thread with numbers, I used those numbers.
For some reason your calculations go from Feb 2020 thru Jan 2021. Dr. Briand comes up with different looking projections based on calendar year comparisons of the raw data, with fewer deaths even than recent years past.

But Idk. I'm just Hillz, not a professor of applied economics like Dr. Briand.

 

mcmurtry66

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For some reason your calculations go from Feb 2020 thru Jan 2021. Dr. Briand comes up with different looking projections based on calendar year comparisons of the raw data, with fewer deaths even than recent years past.

But Idk. I'm just Hillz, not a professor of applied economics like Dr. Briand.

you're also the 15th ranked poster on this board.
 
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stollcpa

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"Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths."

And...

"Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."
Has this now been taken off the John’s Hopkins website?
 

CO. Hoosier

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If he'd died in a car wreck should that have been counted as a traffic fatality? I mean, he was going to die soon anyway.
He died within the time and in the manner that statistics show was most likely to happen. He should not be counted as an excess Covid death.

Your auto accident is similar. While the COD is accidental, his death is not a a statistically important. It’s the same as if he fell and conked his head. I guess the point is that the covid death statistics are overstated because of examples like this.
 
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Bulk VanderHuge

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A 99 year old friend of mine died in September. He was in very poor health and his life expectancy was probably measured in months if not weeks before Covid. He died of pneumonia caused by the Covid virus. People in his condition usualy die of pneumonia regardless Covid. Yet his death is listed as a Covid death. While Covid was a "cause" of death, it shouldn't be included in the pandemic data; yet it is. I'm guessing there are thousands of similar cases.
Or, 100’s of thousands.
 

stollcpa

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It won’t. I’m debating canceling the rankings. The personal messages I’m getting are exhausting; not to mention a handful of threats. We might be done with rankings. The board can’t handle it.
You should screenshot and post the threats.
 
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HillzHoozier

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Has this now been taken off the John’s Hopkins website?
Yes. I'm surprised it was on Twitter long enough for me to find it. There's too much money at stake to allow any room to question the pandemic narrative.