Izzo: "Indiana is the Strangest Team"
- Thread starter hoosierdaddy_1972
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Also strange how MSU has had an entire week to prepare before each IU game. I often think league scheduling gets overlooked as a major factor during the course of an entire season. Not just which teams play only once but also the way home/away weights out, day of week and time of game (including effects on crowd as well)All added up can’t see how it doesn’t affect
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It has been a strange team and a strange year. We started 12-2, 3-0 and are now 14-14, 5-12. The team is starting to play like the 12-2 team in December. We played much better, but until Wisky we could not get the win.
We are a better team now than the one that beat MSU. It may not guarantee a win, but our chances are better now than on 2/2.
We are a better team now than the one that beat MSU. It may not guarantee a win, but our chances are better now than on 2/2.
Yes the fact that he had a full week to prepare for us for BOTH games is BS, although judging how the first game went, maybe it is okay. But now its March and Izzo is generally better now and I think he is a better coach when facing adversity like Ward being out.
Furthering thought...Note how away games against Purdue, Michigan, Iowa for example were on weekends while home games on Tue or weeknight. Single away plays like Minn and Maryland on weekend, our single home games with Wisconsin on a late Tue. By no means am I saying it determines the outcome, but start to add in all the other scheduling factors it has to play a role on some level. Can’t be fair/equal with all teams.
I'm not so sure that we can break IU cleanly into 2 distinct Jeckle and Hyde seasons. In other words, we started 12-2 and then went 2-12. However, I think that we have been closer to being the same team during the 28 games than we are to having been two distinct polar opposites.
During the 12-2 start we played a bunch of very poor teams, and won. We won three out of conference games against teams that are regarded highly now, but weren't very good teams when we beat them. Included in the 12-2 start was a 2 point W versus the Wildcats, a 2 point W in Happy Valley, and a home win against (at the time) a hapless Illini team. We could easily have gone 0-3 in those games.
Certainly we had some clunkers during the 2-12 collapse. Neb at home, and a game where we looked like statues versus a Minnesota team that had as many highlights as an NBA all star team. Yet, we had plenty of games where we ended up losing a close one at the end. We also had some games that we lost that also featured some solid basketball. In fact, the start to the Maryland game may have been our best 10 minutes of the year.
This is a team that is learning how to close out games, and I suspect that this team will finish strongly this year. Either way, I am not convinced that IU went from being some great 12-2 team (top 15 Nationally?) to a terrible 2-12 team (being bottom 2-3 in the B10). To me those teams were probably closer to being similar in ability than the 2 records showed. I should also mention that sometimes it comes down to fate. No doubt in the Wisky game we played better, and Romeo really took the game over when it mattered. Still, when the game ended I remember feeling like we got a lot of calls, and dodged a major bullet with all of those missed frees throws. I am not saying that we weren't due for some positive karma (we've had plenty of games end in the opposite manner), but just mentioning how things can appear after a game- contrast the feeling when a 30 foot three falls in to beat us, or an All-American misses a half dozen free throws to help us pull out the W.
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Our Kenpom rankings have been kinda wild to track as well. We peaked around 23rd or 24th nationally, I think after the Butler win. The Illinois win and the other two cupcake wins actually caused us to either hold steady or fall a spot or two.
But, at that point, our luck rating was somewhere in the top 100--which you'd expect winning 4 games in a row by one possession. Our SOS was nothing to be proud of--probably in the high 100's or 200's, if I remember right.
Then we hit that brutal stretch of games in the conference, where we went 1-6 or 2-5. Our overall strength of schedule skyrocketed into the top 10 nationally, and it hasn't budged. And our luck rank plummeted into the 300's, where it still sits.
The upshot is that we're the second best 14-loss team in the country, behind Penn State, who's luck and SOS ratings are even more skewed than ours--and even then, they only recently overtook us for the top spot. And the luck rating doesn't even factor in injuries, I don't believe. We are certainly a better team than our record indicates, because of the schedule we've played, and the tough breaks we've caught.
Some people will blame that luck rating on Miller's coaching--but there isn't any statistical evidence to suggest that it's his coaching causing it. His average luck rank over the previous 5 years has been 148th, which is slightly above average. If you believe that kenpom's luck rating is really a coaching barometer, then you have to note that his worst two years in terms of luck have come in the last two seasons, suggesting he is actually a better coach than his results at IU would suggest.
People are going to look at our record and say we got worse, or we're treading water and these results are unacceptable. But the statistics suggest the team has improved quite a bit from last year, but we've played a much tougher schedule and gotten unlucky in both measurable and unmeasurable ways. That's one of the reasons I don't think Miller is a problem.
BUT...we do need to keep an eye on his offensive numbers. You'd expect that he would post better numbers at IU than Dayton, but the results have actually gone in the opposite direction here, and they've dropped in year two despite adding Romeo and losing very little in offensive production. Plus, while they posted championship caliber defensive numbers in more than one season at Dayton under Miller, they never did so on offense, and he'll need to show he can do that at IU...otherwise he'll just be bizarro Crean--a good but not great coach who won't score enough to win at IU's expected standard.
Overall, nothing has happened that would cause me to not give him the 4 or 5 years we essentially promised him by guaranteeing his full salary through that stretch. But, he's got a couple of "prove it" seasons coming up--and he certainly hasn't proven anything yet.
those cupcakes are ahead of us in the big ten. right now, we are the cupcake
I was referring to the central arkansas and jacksonville wins. They are not ahead of us in the big ten. If you want to have a rational conversation about IU, you'll need to try harder.
Michigan State and Wisconsin, who are both top-12 in kenpom, would disagree that we are a cupcake.
How many 3 day swings with long road trips did IU have? That @Rutgers 3 days later @MSU was ridiculous. @Minn then 3 days later Vs Purdue off the top of my head. Then, the "luck" of being one of 3 B10 teams to face a healthy Nebraska. Part of it is just hitting teams at the right time....I won't go into Purdue's "tough" schedule that hasn't allowed them as many quality wins as IU....
I agree the schedule has been tougher this year and I agree we eeked out some early wins over not very good teams. When Morgan decided to return and we landed Romeo this thing looked good on paper. Reports were that Green, Durham and Smith were much improved. Phinisee and Hunter looked promising.
But in reality it has turned out that this team is wildly inconsistent, has no discernable strengths and lacks competency in key areas -- some combination of which has reared its ugly head every in contest and made it almost impossible to win games. Injuries, free throws, turnovers, jump shooting, 3 pt shooting, half court execution, rebounding, defensive lapses, foul trouble, lack of size inside, bench scoring. As the losses have piled up we've been close at times but just not good enough night in and night out.
But in reality it has turned out that this team is wildly inconsistent, has no discernable strengths and lacks competency in key areas -- some combination of which has reared its ugly head every in contest and made it almost impossible to win games. Injuries, free throws, turnovers, jump shooting, 3 pt shooting, half court execution, rebounding, defensive lapses, foul trouble, lack of size inside, bench scoring. As the losses have piled up we've been close at times but just not good enough night in and night out.
That's what makes us so strange -- our only two wins in the last two months were against Kenpom top 12 teams!!!
win or lose, Archie is not going to shake that man's hand for very long. bank it!
I've heard rumors that Archie is pissed about some negative recruiting going on.
I think maybe you are mistaken
Q1 record Purdue 7-6, IU 5-9
Q2 record Purdue 7-0, IU 1-5
Q1 + Q2 Purdue 14-6, IU 6-14
The 12-2 start included games that we made winning plays and stops that won the game. Marquette was excellent from the tip. Butler and UL were tough games we found a way to win while we missed by a tip in at Arkansas. The last 3 games were similar to those earlier games with a chance to win.
We lost our way for a while. The team in the 1-9 stretch after our 12-2 start got blown out early and could never recover. Nine of those ten games were played by ugly and uninspired teams that didn't look anything like we have since Minnesota.
The 2011-2012 team had a similar, but much shorter stretch of low energy / low effort at mid conference and came back to finish strong. I'm going to watch and see if the Minnesota game did teach the team a lesson and hope we don't need another reminder in the few games we have remaining.
I think you are right. In a way this feels like making excuses but prior to Jan everyone commented on the upcoming B1G brutal stretch of away games but we were playing well. Post streak, I haven’t heard/seen that referenced much but certainly didn’t help scenario
CBS has Purdue's SOS at 9th in the country and IU's at 35th. Is that what you are referring to?
https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/sos
Why? An opposing coach should be fired for negligence if they’re not negative recruiting against us.
Opposing coaches don't have to say a thing. They can just stream Dakich and Risley rants.
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