It's been slow but someone tweeted these nice KenPom trends

[TommyCracker]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

 

[aajohn2000]

Good post @TommyCracker ! It's early in the season and hopefully our team stays healthy. I don't expect us to stay top 10 in defense, but I do think it stays top 25. I also would love to see our offense improve. Should we continue to have Armaan / team hit threes like the past two games, it's not unreasonable to see that happen.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

IU is 17th overall in KenPom.

 

[SixthFlagComing]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

Thanks for showing this. It is really nice to see the team getting better and better over the years...

 

[aajohn2000]

What do you say? How about we beat purdue this year? I’ll take a split, but a sweep would be fantastic.

 

[hookyIU1990]

Barttorvik's T-rank has similar rankings.

Currently 47th in Adj Offense, 5th in D, and 13th overall.

 

[rikki-tikka-tava]

Barttorvik's T-rank has similar rankings.

Currently 47th in Adj Offense, 5th in D, and 13th overall.

"Sacred data and secret formulas" eh? Sounds like a stats geek with a sense of humor. Not presently inclined to argue with someone who has IU projected as a #3 Tourney seed, just hope he's right.

 

[hookyIU1990]

"Sacred data and secret formulas" eh? Sounds like a stats geek with a sense of humor. Not presently inclined to argue with someone who has IU projected as a #3 Tourney seed, just hope he's right.

I'm too cheap to pay for KenPom, so I look at that one instead. He's OK for a Wiscy guy.

 

[frikkenfrakken]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

The defense has clearly improved each year, provided this year holds. It is still a small sample size. The offensive picture isn't as rosy. The efficiency rating (as opposed to the rank) suggests the offense has essentially been flat year over year, between 110 and 108.

The rank has improved because offense has been trending down across the NCAA the past 4 years. But...no champion in the last 5 seasons won with an ADJO rating below 120, although it probably would have happened last year.

I'm not saying Archie will fail, because as long as we are trending up I say we should wait and see. But, if he fails, it will be because of offense.

 

[TR32]

IU is bottom 5 in nearly every offensive statistical category vs other Big Ten teams. Perhaps I don't understand how Ken Pom gets their ratings but what the hell difference does it make?

 

[frikkenfrakken]

IU is bottom 5 in nearly every offensive statistical category vs other Big Ten teams. Perhaps I don't understand how Ken Pom gets their ratings but what the hell difference does it make?

Per game statistics are misleading, especially with a small sample size of non-conference games and varying strengths of schedule.

Plus, the BIG is shaping up to be ridiculous again this year. Indiana is ranked 17th in the country, but only 5th in the BIG.

We'd be 6th in the BIG12, but better off in every other conference. 2nd in the ACC, 1st in the PAC12, 2nd in the SEC, 3rd in the Big East.

And, past #5, the BIG is even deeper then the BIG 12. Michigan State, for example, is rated 27th in the nation after their loss to Northwestern, but 9th in the BIG...

Point being, IU could be the 9th best offense in the league, and still be a pretty good team this year.

 

[T.M.P.]

IU is bottom 5 in nearly every offensive statistical category vs other Big Ten teams. Perhaps I don't understand how Ken Pom gets their ratings but what the hell difference does it make?

It's called math.

 

[SIhoosier26]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

Good post, things definitely trending in the right direction.

Let's hope this leads to wins in conference, I'll stick with my prediction I think this team finishes far higher than the pundits predicted. 4th or 5th in the BIG10.

 

[Paterfamilias]

I think that odds are in favor of an offensive breakthrough this season at some point. Reason being that IU has 3 players with a tilt toward offense that are currently performing at their floor relative to potential in Brunk, Lander and Hunter. I still think that Thompson has stretch ability that has not been tapped into as well. Additionally, I think Geronimo has late season x-factor potential on the offensive boards. All of these happening as I hope is probably unlikely, but I like where we are in the analytics right now with none of them happening.

IU has great potential for in-season improvement this year, may not happen, but I like our chances.

 

[T.M.P.]

I think that odds are in favor of an offensive breakthrough this season at some point. Reason being that IU have 3 players with a tilt toward offense that are currently performing at their floor relative to potential in Brunk, Lander and Hunter. I still think that Thompson has stretch ability that has not been tapped into as well. Additionally, I think Geronimo has late season x-factor potential on the offensive boards. All of these happening as I hope is probably unlikely, but I like where we are in the analytics right now with none of them happening.

IU has great potential for in-season improvement this year, may not happen, but I like our chances.

The way that kenpom works, as long as we stay efficient as we are, both defense and offense eff ratings will likely go up just due to schedule strength. i doubt that it jumps 20 spots, unless we do become much better but it's not unlikely that it jumps 10 in offense with no improvement. Really need 10 or more games until kenpom is fully "connected".

 

[SIhoosier26]

The way that kenpom works, as long as we stay efficient as we are, both defense and offense eff ratings will likely go up just due to schedule strength. i doubt that it jumps 20 spots, unless we do become much better but it's not unlikely that it jumps 10 in offense with no improvement.

I could actually see our offense getting a bump with the way Franklin and Thompson are developing confidence and coming into their own. Parker Stewart (if he plays this season) could also be a wild card.

Add in improvements from Galloway and Lander as they were pretty much thrown into the fire this season with the lack of offseason and exhibition games. Brunk coming back could give a boost to their bench which has underwhelmed at this point.

Helps that IU's already played some quality teams and haven't just been feasting on cupcakes.

 

[Paterfamilias]

The way that kenpom works, as long as we stay efficient as we are, both defense and offense eff ratings will likely go up just due to schedule strength. i doubt that it jumps 20 spots, unless we do become much better but it's not unlikely that it jumps 10 in offense with no improvement. Really need 10 or more games until kenpom is fully "connected".

Good point. Small sample size and all, but the returnees are 33-88 on 3's for 37.5%, while the frosh and walk-on's are 8-34 for 23.5%. Not unusual for frosh to break out of the gate slow from deep. By season's end this team could be surprisingly improved from 3 over last season. Big 10 is rough, but that's the way I like it, just hope we get to keep playing the games!

 

[5morebanners]

The way that kenpom works, as long as we stay efficient as we are, both defense and offense eff ratings will likely go up just due to schedule strength. i doubt that it jumps 20 spots, unless we do become much better but it's not unlikely that it jumps 10 in offense with no improvement. Really need 10 or more games until kenpom is fully "connected".

Im waiting until the end of January to put too much stock into the computers, but I’ll admit they are fun to look at.

I’m guessing the offense can climb another 10 spots or so, but our defensive efficiency will slide a bit in the juggernaut B1G. Iowa could simultaneously lift our Offense, while killing our D. I hate Fran, but their offense looks legit.

 

[rikki-tikka-tava]

Good point. Small sample size and all, but the returnees are 33-88 on 3's for 37.5%, while the frosh and walk-on's are 8-34 for 23.5%. Not unusual for frosh to break out of the gate slow from deep. By season's end this team could be surprisingly improved from 3 over last season. Big 10 is rough, but that's the way I like it, just hope we get to keep playing the games!

Aljami shot nearly 40% from deep & 80%+ on FTs last year so expect his current sub-30% & 65% clips to improve - looking for him to average 15/6 going forward. Hell. I think the offense is going to be better because FG% has just been down in a way that don't believe is a true reflection of the Players' actual abilities, never mind potential. No statistic for that one, just feel like this is a better shooting Team than the first seven games indicate.

Al needs to not be skittish. Race needs to rouse his inner beast. Trey is going to be busting ass all Season (reason to be hopeful about his scoring trajectory), Armaan has been like AYFKM! (looks real to me), TJD just still getting better, and damn it'd be cool if Brunk was around to chase 10/8 though that increasingly seems a faint hope.

I profess that Rob is proving to be something of an enigma, not so much as Jerome but still. Interested in others' impressions but seems to be about the same Player as last year - solid when he's in especially on D but not often looking to score nor tearing it up with facilitating. I guess I should be satisfied with his workmanlike approach, but reckon I was expecting a little more 'innovation' and well, finesse from a Junior Captain. So, not a criticism because I like IU's Backcourt. All the same would really like to see numbers for efficiency of different Players and rotations, and yes it is early but as 5more said, "they're fun to look at". Woud be most obliged for any links to such..

Jerome. One of these days want to see him Shining. And Lander, Leal and Jordan. They're all going to have their moments and maybe then some, especially Kristian, not going go sleep on anyone for my part.

 

[T.M.P.]

]

Im waiting until the end of January to put too much stock into the computers, but I’ll admit they are fun to look at.

I’m guessing the offense can climb another 10 spots or so, but our defensive efficiency will slide a bit in the juggernaut B1G. Iowa could simultaneously lift our Offense, while killing our D. I hate Fran, but their offense looks legit.

In a normal year, it's late December for Sagarin and early Jan for Kenpom. So mid January is probably about right. We can though take our ratings semi seriously, considering the schedule we had. The others with the exception of Iowa, not so much.

 

[TommyCracker]

I think that odds are in favor of an offensive breakthrough this season at some point. Reason being that IU has 3 players with a tilt toward offense that are currently performing at their floor relative to potential in Brunk, Lander and Hunter. I still think that Thompson has stretch ability that has not been tapped into as well. Additionally, I think Geronimo has late season x-factor potential on the offensive boards. All of these happening as I hope is probably unlikely, but I like where we are in the analytics right now with none of them happening.

IU has great potential for in-season improvement this year, may not happen, but I like our chances.

I'm really worried about Hunter.

He looks like he's 40 years old with how slow he's moving. He seems to be getting lost on defense more than I would expect and I don't see much of a rebounder in him. He's got to be, and was advertised as more that a three point shooter. Actually that part of his game has developed, he was advertised as this versatile inside out player that was okay athletically but was long and had a killer mentality.

When Smith left I thought it would be a natural upgrade for Hunter to step in his place.

That is our weak link, the three spot. There's a crazy amount of rebounding pressure on Trayce and Race if we play AL there. Trey has an amazing amount of sizzle and bulldog but, he's not much of a threat offensively other than in the break.

We really, really, really need Hunter to become that versatile weapon he was hyped to be.

If he does than lookout.

I have my doubts.

 

[Cavanagh]

I'm really worried about Hunter.

He looks like he's 40 years old with how slow he's moving. He seems to be getting lost on defense more than I would expect and I don't see much of a rebounder in him. He's got to be, and was advertised as more that a three point shooter. Actually that part of his game has developed, he was advertised as this versatile inside out player that was okay athletically but was long and had a killer mentality.

When Smith left I thought it would be a natural upgrade for Hunter to step in his place.

That is our weak link, the three spot. There's a crazy amount of rebounding pressure on Trayce and Race if we play AL there. Trey has an amazing amount of sizzle and bulldog but, he's not much of a threat offensively other than in the break.

We really, really, really need Hunter to become that versatile weapon he was hyped to be.

If he does than lookout.

I have my doubts.

he does look slow as hell compared to everyone else, but so did Paul Pierce. Hunter needs to be our best shooter, I can’t believe I haven’t willed it into him yet.

send it in Jerome!!!!

 

[Paterfamilias]

I'm really worried about Hunter.

He looks like he's 40 years old with how slow he's moving. He seems to be getting lost on defense more than I would expect and I don't see much of a rebounder in him. He's got to be, and was advertised as more that a three point shooter. Actually that part of his game has developed, he was advertised as this versatile inside out player that was okay athletically but was long and had a killer mentality.

When Smith left I thought it would be a natural upgrade for Hunter to step in his place.

That is our weak link, the three spot. There's a crazy amount of rebounding pressure on Trayce and Race if we play AL there. Trey has an amazing amount of sizzle and bulldog but, he's not much of a threat offensively other than in the break.

We really, really, really need Hunter to become that versatile weapon he was hyped to be.

If he does than lookout.

I have my doubts.

Yeah, I kinda don't think Jerome can play the 4. Worse than that, I don't think Jerome thinks he can play the 4. I'm not sure if what we're seeing is physical limitations or mental. Regardless, I've lowered my own expectations of Hunter quite a bit, but I still think he should be able to give 10-15 hard working minutes with a chance to heat up the offense with some bombs.

 

[Sope Creek]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

And some are saying we miss Justin Smith . . . I'd think the numbers establish otherwise . . . and the schedule this year has fewer cupcakes to boot.

 

[hookyIU1990]

And some are saying we miss Justin Smith . . . I'd think the numbers establish otherwise . . . and the schedule this year has fewer cupcakes to boot.

I posted Smith's numbers so far in another thread and we're not missing anything.

 

[Sope Creek]

I posted Smith's numbers so far in another thread and we're not missing anything.

Yep. Thank you for that. It's that thread that prompted my post above.

 

[TR32]

It's called math.

Indiana is not a good offensive team. No need for insults.

 

[birdforbogey]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

I smell a raise coming!

 

[snarlcakes]

KenPom Offense under Archie:
2017-18: 92
2018-19: 82
2019-20: 65
2020-21: 45

KenPom Defense under Arch:
2017-18: 65
2018-19: 32
2019-20: 26
2020-21: 8

Need to keep improving offensively but I thought the magic formula was to be top 30 in Ken pom offense and defense. Something like all but one national champion was top 30 in both.

The 8th ranked defense is our highest since 2002 when we got to fifth.

If my memory is correct all the national champions have been top 15ish in both offense and defense except when UCONN won it (both years). I have an excel sheet somewhere with all information on it (covid hit and I can’t remember what I did with it).

 

[TommyCracker]

If my memory is correct all the national champions have been top 15ish in both offense and defense except when UCONN won it (both years). I have an excel sheet somewhere with all information on it (covid hit and I can’t remember what I did with it).

You're probably right, I couldn't remember the rule of thumb.

Still top 15 in both seems a bit tough to do but, it makes sense if a team can do it, they are going to be bad mofos.

 

[.Gerdis]

You're probably right, I couldn't remember the rule of thumb.

Still top 15 in both seems a bit tough to do but, it makes sense if a team can do it, they are going to be bad mofos.

Clearly we are trending in the right direction. We’ve improved in our final Kenpom rating each year. I am still a little baffled that we could lose 12 of 13 conference games two seasons ago. Even odder was the sole win being against a solid MSU team. That game versus Nebraska in AH was the perfect summary of that stretch. Apparently, we just didn’t care.

I have no doubt that we will finish top 25 in KP this year. But, the Boilers finished 24th last year and weren’t NCAA bound, so we need to take care of business in conference. And it’s going to be weirder than football. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some teams play twice as many conference games as other teams. It wouldn’t surprise me to see entire starting lineups sidelined with COVID.


It’s the season of the asterisk.*

*or likely will be (IMHO)

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

If my memory is correct all the national champions have been top 15ish in both offense and defense except when UCONN won it (both years). I have an excel sheet somewhere with all information on it (covid hit and I can’t remember what I did with it).

I had a comparison of coaches from a couple years back - although I used Team Rankings as a source on most of it (too cheap to pay KenPom).

I might have to dig that out over the holidays and update it with Archie's results.

 

[TR32]

Indiana is not a good offensive team.

Indiana is still not a good offensive team.