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Interesting (depressing, as well) Ohio stat.

Univee2

Univee2

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Out of 1,781 corona virus-related deaths through Wednesday, 1,183 have been in long-term care facilities. That's 66.4%.

Not sure where other states stand, but I would wager that the numbers are also well out of proportion to each state's population. Given the age, poor health and the packing in of the residents it's not surprising these numbers are skewed.

Now, throw in that several Ohio prisons were hotspots, one has to wonder about why our efforts haven't been as proportional.

Opening churches "early" seems to be a potential problem given that the average age of the parishioners is higher than the general population and folks are more tightly packed.
 
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Univee2 said:
Opening churches "early" seems to be a potential problem given that the average age of the parishioners is higher than the general population and folks are more tightly packed.
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I do not know what churches are going to do given the age question. No church is going to want to turn people away, so how does a church open at 50% capacity? Or how does it tell everyone over 65 or with conditions to stay away? How will childcare work?

I cannot help but think K-12 schools are screwed too. How do you pack busses? Even if you have the space in schools, how do you socially distance 1st graders (or teens). The kids might be relatively safe but many will live with people who are not especially now that there appears to be a condition that strikes little children from COVID.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
I do not know what churches are going to do given the age question. No church is going to want to turn people away, so how does a church open at 50% capacity? Or how does it tell everyone over 65 or with conditions to stay away? How will childcare work?

I cannot help but think K-12 schools are screwed too. How do you pack busses? Even if you have the space in schools, how do you socially distance 1st graders (or teens). The kids might be relatively safe but many will live with people who are not especially now that there appears to be a condition that strikes little children from COVID.
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Uhh life. Always that pesky little risk hanging around
 
StelioKantos said:
There is risk involved with everyday life, no matter where you live
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There is, but living in Carmel contains many fewer risks than Hammond or Gary, or Indy East side. So you have opted to lower your risk.

Are you one that always goes out armed. Isn't that a way of just trying to lower risk even though the odds of being a victim of violent crime, unless one is involved in the drug trade, are very low.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
There is, but living in Carmel contains many fewer risks than Hammond or Gary, or Indy East side. So you have opted to lower your risk.

Are you one that always goes out armed. Isn't that a way of just trying to lower risk even though the odds of being a victim of violent crime, unless one is involved in the drug trade, are very low.
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I wouldn’t really say I opted to lower it, I’m just from here.

And there is a pretty big difference between lowering your risk by not skydiving or bungee jumping, drunk driving or things of that nature vs. not sending kids to school cuz the Rona.
 
StelioKantos said:
I wouldn’t really say I opted to lower it, I’m just from here.

And there is a pretty big difference between lowering your risk by not skydiving or bungee jumping, drunk driving or things of that nature vs. not sending kids to school cuz the Rona.
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This article says my odds of dying from COVID (living in Maryland) are the equivalent of skydiving every day for the next 44 days. And that's across the whole population. There's a point where I'm willing to take that risk. But it's not going to be for a restaurant meal. At least not right now.
 
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StelioKantos said:
I wouldn’t really say I opted to lower it, I’m just from here.

And there is a pretty big difference between lowering your risk by not skydiving or bungee jumping, drunk driving or things of that nature vs. not sending kids to school cuz the Rona.
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The debate is how to manage risks, not eliminate risks. There are people for whom Corona is much more likely to be fatal. If you were one of those, you would send your kids to school without a single thought?

When I was 30, my risk acceptance would have been much different. I would have been worried more about basketball courts being closed then catching Corona. But now that I am practically 60, attending a crowded church or restaurant seems to be an unneeded risk.

For businesses/churches wanting to fill back up, they have to convince the 40% at risk that the risk is managed. This thing Indy is doing with closing off streets to allow outdoor eating is great for that.

Everyone is searching for that happy medium.

This is going to sound crazy, but we are lucky. If Ebola spread as easily as Corona we would face tens of millions of deaths. This is serious, but it also is great practice for even worse diseases that will eventually appear.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
I do not know what churches are going to do given the age question. No church is going to want to turn people away, so how does a church open at 50% capacity? Or how does it tell everyone over 65 or with conditions to stay away? How will childcare work?

I cannot help but think K-12 schools are screwed too. How do you pack busses? Even if you have the space in schools, how do you socially distance 1st graders (or teens). The kids might be relatively safe but many will live with people who are not especially now that there appears to be a condition that strikes little children from COVID.
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We have to figure out a way for the kids. They’re the least likely to be harmed from it and the damage to them of not having school is immense, especially among lower income areas where they face greater domestic violence issues being at home longer and need the meals schools provide. That they may infect some adults is just the risk we have to take imo. The kids must get back to school in the fall. I’m less sympathetic to adults and church. Tune in on line. Have church outside. Whatever. There’s things they can do.
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
We have to figure out a way for the kids. They’re the least likely to be harmed from it and the damage to them of not having school is immense, especially among lower income areas where they face greater domestic violence issues being at home longer and need the meals schools provide. That they may infect some adults is just the risk we have to take imo. The kids must get back to school in the fall. I’m less sympathetic to adults and church. Tune in on line. Have church outside. Whatever. There’s things they can do.
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I agree about school, but there is a high rate of COVID issues in inner cities. Those are people with poor access to healthcare as is. COVID eliminating a percentage of parents is not going to help.
 
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bawlmer said:
This article says my odds of dying from COVID (living in Maryland) are the equivalent of skydiving every day for the next 44 days. And that's across the whole population. There's a point where I'm willing to take that risk. But it's not going to be for a restaurant meal. At least not right now.
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Dumb article. Do you live in a nursing home?
 
HillzHoozier said:
Dumb article. Do you live in a nursing home?
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Why is it dumb? I found this paragraph enlightening for NYC:

Converting this to micromort language, an individual living in New York City has experienced roughly 50 additional micromorts of risk per day because of Covid-19. That means you were roughly twice as likely to die as you would have been if you were serving in the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan throughout 2010, a particularly deadly year.​
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
Why is it dumb? I found this paragraph enlightening for NYC:

Converting this to micromort language, an individual living in New York City has experienced roughly 50 additional micromorts of risk per day because of Covid-19. That means you were roughly twice as likely to die as you would have been if you were serving in the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan throughout 2010, a particularly deadly year.​
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How can the writer possibly calculate liklihood of dying from covid when nobody knows how many people have been infected? It's scare mongering. People I know have died because of the lockdown. I don't know anyone who has died from the virus.
 
HillzHoozier said:
How can the writer possibly calculate liklihood of dying from covid when nobody knows how many people have been infected? It's scare mongering. People I know have died because of the lockdown. I don't know anyone who has died from the virus.
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The first half of the article is agnostic about infection. How many people died of COVID over the total population is the only consideration. That paragraph I quoted is in that section. The second half does give risks if you are infected. We have some general ideas because of testing like Indiana did. Those numbers may change depending on infection rate.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
The first half of the article is agnostic about infection. How many people died of COVID over the total population is the only consideration. That paragraph I quoted is in that section. The second half does give risks if you are infected. We have some general ideas because of testing like Indiana did. Those numbers may change depending on infection rate.
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The major failure was the lack of effort to protect the convalescent population. The shutdown was a failure and a mistake, and keeping it going will lead to what Fauci calls irreparable harm. He's the one guy everyone agrees is THE guy, right? Also, this lady:

https://www.theblaze.com/news/oxfor...ight-have-done-better-by-doing-nothing-at-all

During an interview on UnHerd, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, said the virus is on its way out in the United Kingdom, and the true infection fatality rate is likely extremely low.​

"I think the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would definitely be less than 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) and probably closer to 1 in 10,000 (0.01%)," Gupta said.​
 
HillzHoozier said:
The major failure was the lack of effort to protect the convalescent population. The shutdown was a failure and a mistake, and keeping it going will lead to what Fauci calls irreparable harm. He's the one guy everyone agrees is THE guy, right? Also, this lady:

https://www.theblaze.com/news/oxfor...ight-have-done-better-by-doing-nothing-at-all

During an interview on UnHerd, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, said the virus is on its way out in the United Kingdom, and the true infection fatality rate is likely extremely low.​

"I think the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would definitely be less than 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) and probably closer to 1 in 10,000 (0.01%)," Gupta said.​
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Is anyone arguing we should still have a lockdown?
 
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HillzHoozier said:
How can the writer possibly calculate liklihood of dying from covid when nobody knows how many people have been infected? It's scare mongering. People I know have died because of the lockdown. I don't know anyone who has died from the virus.
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LOL! Sorry if it scared you.
 
I'm probably full of shit, but (aside from the nursing home concerns) I've come to the conclusion that it's come full circle and is all about the masks. That's the single most effective measure we can take. Distancing and hand washing and surface cleaning and all that is fine and dandy, but if people aren't masked up then we're kidding ourselves. No amount of hand washing is going to help me if some unmasked asymptomatic assclown coughs in my direction from close range.
 
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UncleMark said:
I'm probably full of shit, but (aside from the nursing home concerns) I've come to the conclusion that it's come full circle and is all about the masks. That's the single most effective measure we can take. Distancing and hand washing and surface cleaning and all that is fine and dandy, but if people aren't masked up then we're kidding ourselves. No amount of hand washing is going to help me if some unmasked asymptomatic assclown coughs in my direction from close range.
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That's just wrong. Hand washing is the single most important thing you can do to stop the spread. It is near possible to catch it outside in an uncrowded setting. Research in masks is done in a enclosed small environment with no air movement.

If you feel better wearing a mask walking around, by all.means wear one, but don't assume that someone walking outside without a mask is putting others at risk. I have yet to see science support transmission that way.
 
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flcn3336 said:
[



That's just wrong. Hand washing is the single most important thing you can do to stop the spread. It is near possible to catch it outside in an uncrowded setting. Research in masks is done in a enclosed small environment with no air movement.

If you feel better wearing a mask walking around, by all.means wear one, but don't assume that someone walking outside without a mask is putting others at risk. I have yet to see science support transmission that way.
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I'm not concerned about wearing them outside. It's inside that I'm talking about. If you don't get near 100% compliance inside, l think we're hosed. That means school buses and classrooms. Stores. Workplaces.
 
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UncleMark said:
I'm probably full of shit, but (aside from the nursing home concerns) I've come to the conclusion that it's come full circle and is all about the masks. That's the single most effective measure we can take. Distancing and hand washing and surface cleaning and all that is fine and dandy, but if people aren't masked up then we're kidding ourselves. No amount of hand washing is going to help me if some unmasked asymptomatic assclown coughs in my direction from close range.
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Exactly. And schools should mandate that students and faculty wear masks, but I bet the won’t.
 
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UncleMark said:
I'm not concerned about wearing them outside. It's inside that I'm talking about. If you don't get near 100% compliance inside, l think we're hosed. That means school buses and classrooms. Stores. Workplaces.
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Great Clips?

"A hair stylist in Springfield, Missouri, exposed as many as 91 people to coronavirus after working at a salon for eight days while symptomatic, health officials said Friday.

The exposed include 84 Great Clips customers and, potentially, seven coworkers, said Clay Goddard, director of the Springfield-Greene County Health Department. The condition of the stylist, who was not identified, was not revealed.

So far, no other positive case connected to the stylist has been confirmed, but the county is nonetheless facing "a glut of cases," Goddard said.

Those exposed at the salon would be offered tests.

"The good news is both the clients and the hairstylists were masked" at the time of exposure, he said.

Goddard said at a news conference Friday that more cases like this would quickly strain Springfield's ability to care for patients.

"The hair stylist worked while sick," he said. "I’m gong to be honest with you: We can’t have many more of these."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hair-stylist-exposed-84-people-022258253.html

Both the stylists and clientele at Great Clips are generally younger, so this will definitely be an interesting situation to follow. For one thing it will show us where "contact tracing" is in terms of effectiveness in the Springfield,MO area. Also I seem to remember that MO has been fairly lax from the start on lockdown issues, so the fact that the stylist originally contracted the disease when visiting another part of the state is troubling in terms of transmission potential...

The use of masks (unlike MI and NY cases) is encouraging, but 8 days with a lot of symptoms present is scary. They said they sanitized the building and it's now safe to go back, but my guess is that business location is going to lose customers at an untenable rate, and could even face legal problems once the inevitable case is discovered.

Even victims who recover are faced with a mountain of medical debt. I think the owner of that particular "Great Clips" location is about to face a nightmare- financially and emotionally... All because of ONE person's wanton disregard of the safety of themselves and others...
 
UncleMark said:
I'm not concerned about wearing them outside. It's inside that I'm talking about. If you don't get near 100% compliance inside, l think we're hosed. That means school buses and classrooms. Stores. Workplaces.
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I was at a farmers market this morning and saw only one person without a mask outdoors. Then I stopped at a Speedway to get gas and saw a dozen people going inside and not a single one had on a mask. This is likely the single most f-ed up thing Trump has done, in making it seem like a badge of honor not to wear a mask. All it would take is a word from him and him actually following the advice and millions more people would not be as stubborn about this. It’s ridiculous.
 
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zeke4ahs said:
I was at a farmers market this morning and saw only one person without a mask outdoors. Then I stopped at a Speedway to get gas and saw a dozen people going inside and not a single one had on a mask.
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There's going to be a difference in broad general terms between those who go to a farmers market and the general public buying their gas and smokes and Cokes at a c-store.

Hindsight is 20-20 and all that, but I think if we'd been able to mandate masks from the beginning we could have been less draconian with the lockdown. Of course, since we didn't recognize the danger soon enough and didn't have masks available, I'm just fantasizing. And even with a better response and better mask procurement, we still would have had to take some drastic measures.
 
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Univee2 said:
Out of 1,781 corona virus-related deaths through Wednesday, 1,183 have been in long-term care facilities. That's 66.4%.

Not sure where other states stand, but I would wager that the numbers are also well out of proportion to each state's population. Given the age, poor health and the packing in of the residents it's not surprising these numbers are skewed.
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It's high, but not crazy. Minnesota is ~80%. This should NOT be that surprising given that the median life expectancy for nursing homes is only ~5 months excluding COVID and COVID is highly contagious and disproportionately affects older people, particularly those with underlying conditions (majority, if not all of the patient base).

Univee2 said:
Now, throw in that several Ohio prisons were hotspots, one has to wonder about why our efforts haven't been as proportional.
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Prisons shouldn't even be in question and it's insane that we are releasing any violent or serious offenders (burglaries, theft) instead of keeping them isolated. Elderly care facilities are in a tough spot because those people require lots of help (therapy services, nursing care, cleaning, physician care, food, etc.) and it's seriously detrimental to one's health to be locked up in your room with limited interaction for long periods of time as an elderly person with underlying issues (even if minor).

Marvin the Martian said:
I cannot help but think K-12 schools are screwed too. How do you pack busses? Even if you have the space in schools, how do you socially distance 1st graders (or teens). The kids might be relatively safe but many will live with people who are not especially now that there appears to be a condition that strikes little children from COVID.
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Most people we know have kids that aren't going to see their grandparents for many months, which is a damn shame.
 
zeke4ahs said:
I was at a farmers market this morning and saw only one person without a mask outdoors. Then I stopped at a Speedway to get gas and saw a dozen people going inside and not a single one had on a mask. This is likely the single most f-ed up thing Trump has done, in making it seem like a badge of honor not to wear a mask. All it would take is a word from him and him actually following the advice and millions more people would not be as stubborn about this. It’s ridiculous.
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Good Lord you must live in a bubble. Out of 100 people going into speedway I bet less than 5 have paid any attn to what trump or any president has said...ever. They aren’t reading the paper or watching briefings. They’re watching honey boob boo. Your farmer’s market is a whole different demo. Apples to oranges, and nothing to do with trump.
 
mcmurtry66 said:
Good Lord you must live in a bubble. Out of 100 people going into speedway I bet less than 5 have paid any attn to what trump or any president has said...ever. They aren’t reading the paper or watching briefings. They’re watching honey boob boo. Your farmer’s market is a whole different demo. Apples to oranges, and nothing to do with trump.
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trump seems to have used the Dennis system perfectly on her

in my experience with women being obsessed with loving me or hating me, they were still obsessed and the end result was ALWAYS the same
 
mcmurtry66 said:
Good Lord you must live in a bubble. Out of 100 people going into speedway I bet less than 5 have paid any attn to what trump or any president has said...ever. They aren’t reading the paper or watching briefings. They’re watching honey boob boo. Your farmer’s market is a whole different demo. Apples to oranges, and nothing to do with trump.
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I’m afraid you’re the one who lives in a bubble. You aren’t on twitter, are you? You’ve had this discussion before where you don’t think masks are political. Of course not al, but many many are. You’re beyond naive if you don’t accept that.
 
StelioKantos said:
trump seems to have used the Dennis system perfectly on her

in my experience with women being obsessed with loving me or hating me, they were still obsessed and the end result was ALWAYS the same
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Oh I’m certain you had many women obsessed with you. Lmao
 
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