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Indiana got a lot more red this week

There is a rumor that Bloomington Hospital's ICU is now filled, many patients are from surrounding counties and not Bloomington. So now anyone needing emergency care is going to go to Indy (I guess, who else would have room).

It is a good thing that COVID disappeared with the election.
 
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There is a rumor that Bloomington Hospital's ICU is now filled, many patients are from surrounding counties and not Bloomington. So now anyone needing emergency care is going to go to Indy (I guess, who else would have room).

It is a good thing that COVID disappeared with the election.
It will go away once Biden is certified as the president-it's all part of the conspiracy against Trump.
 
Still feels like many deaths have been attributed to Covid 19 when they shouldn't have been. Where are the excess deaths when compared year-to-year?

Capture-2020-11-20-22-42-23.png


Capture-2020-11-20-22-40-15.png
 
Still feels like many deaths have been attributed to Covid 19 when they shouldn't have been. Where are the excess deaths when compared year-to-year?

Capture-2020-11-20-22-42-23.png


Capture-2020-11-20-22-40-15.png

You don't think a 13% increase in expected deaths is noteworthy? You didn't link anything and I'm way too lazy to go look at that data. But that shows that roughly 9.2% of deaths were from COVID...... yet total deaths are 13% above expected. That appears to look like even more deaths should be attributed to covid, not less.

But you've spent all year talking out your ass on this topic.

Even with all the mitigation efforts going on for 9+ months, our hospitals are basically full right now. And we are still at 13% excess deaths.... before we hit the worst part of the curve over this winter.

Can you imagine if we just did nothing?

Maybe you just suck at analyzing numbers. No problem, my wife is horrendous at it too, but is way smarter than I in other topics

Here:


300k excess deaths, and that was over a month ago.
 
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You don't think a 13% increase in expected deaths is noteworthy? You didn't link anything and I'm way too lazy to go look at that data. But that shows that roughly 9.2% of deaths were from COVID...... yet total deaths are 13% above expected. That appears to look like even more deaths should be attributed to covid, not less.

But you've spent all year talking out your ass on this topic.

Even with all the mitigation efforts going on for 9+ months, our hospitals are basically full right now. And we are still at 13% excess deaths.... before we hit the worst part of the curve over this winter.

Can you imagine if we just did nothing?

Maybe you just suck at analyzing numbers. No problem, my wife is horrendous at it too, but is way smarter than I in other topics

Here:


300k excess deaths, and that was over a month ago.
Excess deaths? Excess versus what? Excess versus the estimate for 2020? Based on what?

I'm not talking out of my ass. I'm comparing the numbers given at the actual CDC website. The worst pandemic in 100 years will result in a death toll close to that in 2018. It doesn't make sense.

Edit Link 1, Link 2
 
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Excess deaths? Excess versus what? Excess versus the estimate for 2020? Based on what?

I'm not talking out of my ass. I'm comparing the numbers given at the actual CDC website. The worst pandemic in 100 years will result in a death toll close to that in 2018. It doesn't make sense.

Edit Link 1, Link 2
You understand the year isn't over yet, right? The death toll is going to surpass 2018, easily, by the time we get to the end of the calendar.
 
Excess deaths? Excess versus what? Excess versus the estimate for 2020? Based on what?

I'm not talking out of my ass. I'm comparing the numbers given at the actual CDC website. The worst pandemic in 100 years will result in a death toll close to that in 2018. It doesn't make sense.

Edit Link 1, Link 2

So you are just going to ignore the next 1.5 months of deaths?

You're own link appears to show a 113% amount of expected deaths for this year, through Nov 14th.

That's an amazing number considering the amount of elderly that have totally locked down.

Can you not read? Good grief, dude.




I also find it very irritating and insulting that you constantly denigrate the medical profession..... continually claiming that they are basically liars. I have two direct family members (in two different states, hospitalists) that work in covid units on a daily basis in hospitals, and hear directly from them what they deal with on a daily basis. For you to call it "normal" is a ****ing joke. They are worn down like crazy and know that the next couple of months are going to be a lot worse.
 
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Excess deaths? Excess versus what? Excess versus the estimate for 2020? Based on what?

I'm not talking out of my ass. I'm comparing the numbers given at the actual CDC website. The worst pandemic in 100 years will result in a death toll close to that in 2018. It doesn't make sense.

Edit Link 1, Link 2

I need some help seeing your point using those links. They're a bit of a data dump. How do they compare with the CDC report Twenty posted?

At the current death rate per infection of 2.1% (per WaPo's data), an infection rate of 150k/day leads to 3,200 deaths per day. That's 100k additional deaths before the end of the year. And the really bad news is the infection rate looks to be headed toward 200k/day.
 
Excess deaths? Excess versus what? Excess versus the estimate for 2020? Based on what?

I'm not talking out of my ass. I'm comparing the numbers given at the actual CDC website. The worst pandemic in 100 years will result in a death toll close to that in 2018. It doesn't make sense.

Edit Link 1, Link 2
Your link lists the deaths in 2018 as 2,839,205. There are 52 weeks in a year, divide that number by 52 and we get an average of 54,600 deaths per week.

Now look at your 2020 chart. There have only been 3 weeks we are under 54,600 and those are the three most recent weeks. That is because there is a 2 week lag in recording. If every single week of 2020 has more deaths than the average 2018 week, how can there not be more?

And it is going to be by a lot. We were losing over 60,000 per week in the summer and historically that is the slowest time of the year for deaths. Those weeks should have been well under 54,600.

That chart starts Feb 1. We have lost 2.5 million. We have over 10 weeks left. If we average 56,000 (it will be more) that means 560,000 added to your 2020 totals. That puts us over 3 million, plus the remaining uncounted for the last two weeks.

We are on par to finish with 3.1 million which my simple math shows to be an 11% increase.
 
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China's getting pockets of green Covid shoots popping up around the country again. (Just got off the phone with the GF who is posted there for a couple of years on a massive O&G project.)

The suburb of the city she is in, Tianjin, a bit north of Beijing is going to mass test the entire suburb of 2.7 million people in the next 3 days! (Each person will get their results back within 4 hrs.)

Some old lady went into an operation in her local hospital and gave an old/invalid Covid Test certification. She landed up being positive. They quarantined the entire surgical team and shut down that hospital for the next few weeks.

If the R (aka reproductive) number is beyond 1 then the city will go into lockdown. She was supposed to go on a two week home rotational leave next week too.
 
So you are just going to ignore the next 1.5 months of deaths?

You're own link appears to show a 113% amount of expected deaths for this year, through Nov 14th.

That's an amazing number considering the amount of elderly that have totally locked down.

Can you not read? Good grief, dude.




I also find it very irritating and insulting that you constantly denigrate the medical profession..... continually claiming that they are basically liars. I have two direct family members (in two different states, hospitalists) that work in covid units on a daily basis in hospitals, and hear directly from them what they deal with on a daily basis. For you to call it "normal" is a ****ing joke. They are worn down like crazy and know that the next couple of months are going to be a lot worse.
I have questions about the 113% you keep citing. What is that number based on? How do they calculate how many deaths are "expected"? However, its really beside the point I'm trying to make.

I find it irritating that we are told to wear masks and stay home for the sake of toilet paper hoarding jerks who don't GARA about anyone. I find it irritating that governments deign to tell me how many of my friends and family members I can have in my own got dam home. I find it irritating that my 5-year old grand daughter has to wear a mask to kindergarten, when there is next-to-zero evidence of student-teacher transmission. I find it irritating that the media is panicking and politicizing a surge which was obviously created by voting lines and election related demonstrations, where they cheered the left causes and shamed the right causes. I'm irritated to see businesses restricted in a free country, when, for instance, data from Nashville showed very little spread from bars and restaurants.

I realize there is a lag. I realize there are 6 or 7 weeks left. I realize that some folks, and most older folks can have a hard time with covid 19, and some die from it. My point is, gross death toll is gonna look close to normal variance this year compared to recent years where there was no 100-year pandemic, granted, on the higher end. Deaths from other causes, like flu, are down because they are attributed to Covid. It's irritating that you don't find that irritating.

The reaction to covid has caused worsening psychological and financial issues on the general population, and state/local governments. The fear and despair will make people accept measures once unthinkable in a free, capitalist society. Its hard to believesoe many of you smart guys are willing to go right along with those measures.
 
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I have questions about the 113% you keep citing. What is that number based on? How do they calculate how many deaths are "expected"? However, its really beside the point I'm trying to make.

I find it irritating that we are told to wear masks and stay home for the sake of toilet paper hoarding jerks who don't GARA about anyone. I find it irritating that governments deign to tell me how many of my friends and family members I can have in my own got dam home. I find it irritating that my 5-year old grand daughter has to wear a mask to kindergarten, when there is next-to-zero evidence of student-teacher transmission. I find it irritating that the media is panicking and politicizing a surge which was obviously created by voting lines and election related demonstrations, where they cheered the left causes and shamed the right causes. I'm irritated to see businesses restricted in a free country, when, for instance, data from Nashville showed very little spread from bars and restaurants.

I realize there is a lag. I realize there are 6 or 7 weeks left. I realize that some folks, and most older folks can have a hard time with covid 19, and some die from it. My point is, gross death toll is gonna look close to normal variance this year compared to recent years where there was no 100-year pandemic, granted, on the higher end. Deaths from other causes, like flu, are down because they are attributed to Covid. It's irritating that you don't find that irritating.

The reaction to covid has caused worsening psychological and financial issues on the general population, and state/local governments. The fear and despair will make people accept measures once unthinkable in a free, capitalist society. Its hard to believesoe many of you smart guys are willing to go right along with those measures.

I live in dekalb county in the eastern part of Indiana. Fort Wayne community has shut down high schools because teachers are sick and they don't have enough subs to go around so the high school kids are more independent so they're concentrating they're efforts on in person teaching the young kids.

Dekalb eastern has went completely virtual.

Im in dekalb central. I use to get emails about once a month about a positive case in my youngest daughter's school. Now I'm getting two to three a week, and now I'm getting them about their being cases on her bus.

Saying kids aren't giving this to teachers is not right, because they are.
 
Deaths from other causes, like flu, are down because they are attributed to Covid. It's irritating that you don't find that irritating.

Proof? There are tests for flu, people flat out are not testing positive for flu. they did not test positive for flu in the southern hemisphere over the summer.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/inde...as low during,health labs during recent weeks.

 
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Your link lists the deaths in 2018 as 2,839,205. There are 52 weeks in a year, divide that number by 52 and we get an average of 54,600 deaths per week.

Now look at your 2020 chart. There have only been 3 weeks we are under 54,600 and those are the three most recent weeks. That is because there is a 2 week lag in recording. If every single week of 2020 has more deaths than the average 2018 week, how can there not be more?

And it is going to be by a lot. We were losing over 60,000 per week in the summer and historically that is the slowest time of the year for deaths. Those weeks should have been well under 54,600.

That chart starts Feb 1. We have lost 2.5 million. We have over 10 weeks left. If we average 56,000 (it will be more) that means 560,000 added to your 2020 totals. That puts us over 3 million, plus the remaining uncounted for the last two weeks.

We are on par to finish with 3.1 million which my simple math shows to be an 11% increase.
You assume the worst-case, but I'm grateful that you at least seem to understand the point I'm making. My feeling is that hospitalizations are up because people who test positive believe they are going to die from it, when they are most likely not going to. I believe the rate of death/positive case will be lower because we have done better to protect the vulnerable and have improved in treating the sick.

There is political value in increasing the levels of pain and despair. Every shutdown and death count report is another brick in that wall. The American public will be grateful to get the next $1200 check sometime next spring, even though it will cost the country another 3 or 4 trillion by then.
 
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I live in dekalb county in the eastern part of Indiana. Fort Wayne community has shut down high schools because teachers are sick and they don't have enough subs to go around so the high school kids are more independent so they're concentrating they're efforts on in person teaching the young kids.

Dekalb eastern has went completely virtual.

Im in dekalb central. I use to get emails about once a month about a positive case in my youngest daughter's school. Now I'm getting two to three a week, and now I'm getting them about their being cases on her bus.

Saying kids aren't giving this to teachers is not right, because they are.
Kids aren't physically capable of carrying a high enough viral load until they reach a particular level of physical maturity. It is more likely that teachers who test positive were infected in their community outside the classroom.

The company my wife works for has 10 staff members out, including several doctors. I know it's spreading. My nephew is quarantined till the 27th. My buddy's family all have the sniffles and he can't smell his aftershave. I'm still going to my in law's house next week for some smoked turkey.
 
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You assume the worst-case, but I'm grateful that you at least seem to understand the point I'm making. My feeling is that hospitalizations are up because people who test positive believe they are going to die from it, when they are most likely not going to. I believe the rate of death/positive case will be lower because we have done better to protect the vulnerable and have improved in treating the sick.

There is political value in increasing the levels of pain and despair. Every shutdown and death count report is another brick in that wall. The American public will be grateful to get the next $1200 check sometime next spring, even though it will cost the country another 3 or 4 trillion by then.

In what possible universe did I use a worst case scenario? Seriously, what number was a worst case scenario? Your link shows current deaths of 2,533,214. There are 43 weeks broken out. Two of those 43 are preliminary numbers, there is a 100% chance they go up. Divide the deaths per week by 43 and you get 58911.95348. I underestimated. I mistakenly thought there were 10 weeks left and there are 9 (how is an interesting question. That table was through Nov 20. There are 10 days after that in November, plus 31 for January and 31 for December. That is 72 days, that is NOT 9 weeks in any earth calendar). Still, multiply 9 by the current weekly average and 530207 more people will die. That does not account for the additional deaths in the two weeks that are preliminary, it does not account for the fact that more people die in colder weather, it does not even account for the missing week from above, nor the fact that the disease is spreading.

In what universe am I using worst case numbers?
 
Kids aren't physically capable of carrying a high enough viral load until they reach a particular level of physical maturity. It is more likely that teachers who test positive were infected in their community outside the classroom.

The company my wife works for has 10 staff members out, including several doctors. I know it's spreading. My nephew is quarantined till the 27th. My buddy's family all have the sniffles and he can't smell his aftershave. I'm still going to my in law's house next week for some smoked turkey.

Please be careful.

My stepdad just died October 30. The coroner put down COVID related because his lungs never recovered. He never regained his smell and taste, always was short of breath and had developed blood clots that unfortunately, one got to his heart. He was only 54. Before this, he was healthy with absolutely no underlying conditions.

I share that because COVID doesn't always kill people right away. It has lingering effect and now my family knows it. I don't live my life in fear by any means, but it upsets me when people brush off the virus like it's nothing and people don't take it seriously.
 
In what possible universe did I use a worst case scenario? Seriously, what number was a worst case scenario? Your link shows current deaths of 2,533,214. There are 43 weeks broken out. Two of those 43 are preliminary numbers, there is a 100% chance they go up. Divide the deaths per week by 43 and you get 58911.95348. I underestimated. I mistakenly thought there were 10 weeks left and there are 9 (how is an interesting question. That table was through Nov 20. There are 10 days after that in November, plus 31 for January and 31 for December. That is 72 days, that is NOT 9 weeks in any earth calendar). Still, multiply 9 by the current weekly average and 530207 more people will die. That does not account for the additional deaths in the two weeks that are preliminary, it does not account for the fact that more people die in colder weather, it does not even account for the missing week from above, nor the fact that the disease is spreading.

In what universe am I using worst case numbers?
The universe where the flu season doesn't materialize.
 
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Please be careful.

My stepdad just died October 30. The coroner put down COVID related because his lungs never recovered. He never regained his smell and taste, always was short of breath and had developed blood clots that unfortunately, one got to his heart. He was only 54. Before this, he was healthy with absolutely no underlying conditions.

I share that because COVID doesn't always kill people right away. It has lingering effect and now my family knows it. I don't live my life in fear by any means, but it upsets me when people brush off the virus like it's nothing and people don't take it seriously.
Sorry for your loss.
 
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Kids aren't physically capable of carrying a high enough viral load until they reach a particular level of physical maturity. It is more likely that teachers who test positive were infected in their community outside the classroom.

The company my wife works for has 10 staff members out, including several doctors. I know it's spreading. My nephew is quarantined till the 27th. My buddy's family all have the sniffles and he can't smell his aftershave. I'm still going to my in law's house next week for some smoked turkey.
Please don't wear a mask.
 
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I’ll be jet setting around the country the next few weeks.

Denver, Austin, Chicago the like. If you get COVID you are weak, I’m not one of those arrogant people in their 20’s that thinks they’re invincible. But when it comes to my immune system I definitely am.

Don’t know anyone that got bad COVID that worked out daily.
 
I have questions about the 113% you keep citing. What is that number based on? How do they calculate how many deaths are "expected"? However, its really beside the point I'm trying to make.

I find it irritating that we are told to wear masks and stay home for the sake of toilet paper hoarding jerks who don't GARA about anyone. I find it irritating that governments deign to tell me how many of my friends and family members I can have in my own got dam home. I find it irritating that my 5-year old grand daughter has to wear a mask to kindergarten, when there is next-to-zero evidence of student-teacher transmission. I find it irritating that the media is panicking and politicizing a surge which was obviously created by voting lines and election related demonstrations, where they cheered the left causes and shamed the right causes. I'm irritated to see businesses restricted in a free country, when, for instance, data from Nashville showed very little spread from bars and restaurants.

I realize there is a lag. I realize there are 6 or 7 weeks left. I realize that some folks, and most older folks can have a hard time with covid 19, and some die from it. My point is, gross death toll is gonna look close to normal variance this year compared to recent years where there was no 100-year pandemic, granted, on the higher end. Deaths from other causes, like flu, are down because they are attributed to Covid. It's irritating that you don't find that irritating.

The reaction to covid has caused worsening psychological and financial issues on the general population, and state/local governments. The fear and despair will make people accept measures once unthinkable in a free, capitalist society. Its hard to believesoe many of you smart guys are willing to go right along with those measures.

We can't overlook this graphic:

mm6942e2_ExcessDeathsCOVID19_IMAGE_20Oct20_1200x675-medium.jpg


The Hispanic and Latino communities are also driving up the Denver statistics. In terms of percent positive tests, cases, hospitalization and deaths, this demographic leads the way. Within the Hispanic and Latino demographic, the 20-40 age group is the highest in all numbers, and within that it is males. Hispanic and Latino neighborhoods are the reddest on the Denver map. Some of these neighborhoods have positivity test rates in excess of 30%. The relative numbers for this demographic exceed the percentage of the population in general.

My demographic and my neighborhood and age positivity test rate is below 5% which is where the health officials like to see it and the cases and hospitalizations are correspondingly low.

Some of the important factors for this Hispanic Latino cluster could be:

Working in occupations where social distancing and other precautions are not always possible.

Living in households with more people.

Socializing in larger groups.

Not knowing or understanding the risks and dangers.

I don't think we need one-size-fits-all curfews, shutdowns, and other restrictions. Instead we need to focus our efforts on where the problems really are. This virus has always clustered around different factors, recognizing these clusters and focusing extra effort to address those is very important.
 
I’ll be jet setting around the country the next few weeks.

Denver, Austin, Chicago the like. If you get COVID you are weak, I’m not one of those arrogant people in their 20’s that thinks they’re invincible. But when it comes to my immune system I definitely am.

Don’t know anyone that got bad COVID that worked out daily.
My best friend is ex division 1 cross country. Ran 48 miles this year for his 48th birthday. He is down 12 pounds from the virus and still tires 2 weeks later after 1 trip around his house. He coughs constantly.

My niece is a competitive dancer. Her 18 year old friend with no underlying conditions died last week from it.

While I appreciate your confidence, this virus is highly unpredictable.
 
My best friend is ex division 1 cross country. Ran 48 miles this year for his 48th birthday. He is down 12 pounds from the virus and still tires 2 weeks later after 1 trip around his house. He coughs constantly.

My niece is a competitive dancer. Her 18 year old friend with no underlying conditions died last week from it.

While I appreciate your confidence, this virus is highly unpredictable.
They didn’t do enough weight training and explosive cardio, all about balance.
 
They didn’t do enough weight training and explosive cardio, all about balance.
Lol. I'll be sure to let him know. No idea about explosive cardio but he lifts 3-4 times per week and cuts/splits more wood than anyone I know. But I'm sure he is not lifting the right way. DWS.
 
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