I can't believe I actually had reason to research this.
So, as you know, it's possible to get an invitation to a bowl as a 5 win team if all the 6 win teams have already accepted invitations. IU's win yesterday cracks the door to getting a 5th win ever so slightly. Five-win teams are prioritized based on their APR the previous year. IU is tied for 49th on the list, but a lot of teams ahead of them are already bowl eligible and others won't reach 5 wins.
I ain't saying it's impossible, but I'm saying it's very improbable.
Here's what needs to happen:
So, as you know, it's possible to get an invitation to a bowl as a 5 win team if all the 6 win teams have already accepted invitations. IU's win yesterday cracks the door to getting a 5th win ever so slightly. Five-win teams are prioritized based on their APR the previous year. IU is tied for 49th on the list, but a lot of teams ahead of them are already bowl eligible and others won't reach 5 wins.
I ain't saying it's impossible, but I'm saying it's very improbable.
Here's what needs to happen:
- IU needs to beat Purdue. This crazy scenario is moot if IU loses.
- A whole lot of teams currently sitting on four or five wins need to lose their final game or games for IU to grab what would be the final invitation to play in a bowl game. The details:
- As of end of day Saturday there were 73 bowl eligible teams and 82 bowl spots available. There will be at least 75 bowl eligible teams at the conclusion on this weekend's games thanks to two games that will each launch one team to bowl eligiblity: Miami OH vs Ball State and GA Southern vs App State (two wins vs FCS opponents in their 6 wins - only one can count toward bowl eligibility).
- There are currently seven five-win teams sitting ahead of IU in the APR rankings. That means at least 81 bowl slots are spoken for before IU would be eligible for an invite. If all five-win teams ranked below these seven lose next week, these teams would have first crack at a bowl invite before IU. In order of APR ranking and showing their final reg season opponent:
- Rice (@ 6-5 N Texas)
- Auburn (@ 9-2 Alabama)
- Michigan State (@ 9-2 Penn State)
- Missouri (vs 6-5 Arkansas)
- Miami OH (vs 5-6 Ball State) - more on this one below.
- Georgia Tech (@ 11-0 Georgia)
- Miami U (vs 7-4 Pitt)
- IU fans need to be cheering for Miami OH to beat Ball State - This Tuesday night game could end any slim IU dreams of backing into a bowl game. Both teams are 5-6. One will be bowl eligible at game's conclusion. If Ball State wins, it becomes the 74th bowl eligible team. With the 75th coming from the App State/GA Southern game and 7 teams on the APR list ahead of IU, all hope is lost.
- If Miami OH wins, then IU needs these 10 teams to lose or lose out to land IU the possibility of a 5-win bowl invite:
- FAU vs 7-5 WKU
- UAB @ 3-8 LA Tech
- UTEP @ 9-2 UTSA
- Buffalo vs 4-7 Kent State (Buffalo also potentially has a rescheduled game vs Akron that was postponed this week to get to a 6th win)
- Vanderbilt vs 9-2 Tennessee
- Louisiana @ 4-7 TX State
- Southern Miss @ 4-7 Louisiana Monroe
- UNLV (4-7) vs 2-8 Nevada - UNLV is ahead of IU in APR. A fifth win would give them priority over IU
- Army (4-6) vs 1-10 UMass and 4-7 Navy - Army has two wins over FCS opponents. Only one can count in your bowl eligibility total. They'd need to win both games and get to 6 wins to be eligible for the 5-win dispensation.
- Rutgers (4-7) @ 6-5 Maryland - Rutgers is ahead of IU in APR. A fifth win would give them priority over IU
- As of end of day Saturday there were 73 bowl eligible teams and 82 bowl spots available. There will be at least 75 bowl eligible teams at the conclusion on this weekend's games thanks to two games that will each launch one team to bowl eligiblity: Miami OH vs Ball State and GA Southern vs App State (two wins vs FCS opponents in their 6 wins - only one can count toward bowl eligibility).
