November 26, 2022 | Daddy Hoosier | iufb.net
Number Crunch
SP+ – PU 55, IU 87
CBS Sports 131 – PU 35, IU 84
PFF Power Rankings – PU 48, IU 96
PFF Overall Grade – PU 76.5 (84th), IU 62.1 (127th)
ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor – PU 71.5%
SP+ Win Probability – PU 69%
SP+ Projected Score – PU 36 – IU 27
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – PU 33 – IU 22.5
IU Scoring Offense 23.9 (94th) vs PU Scoring Defense 25.5 (61st)
PU Scoring Offense 23.7 (43rd) vs IU Scoring Defense 34.3 (120th)
IU Rush Offense 101.4 (120th) vs PU Rush Defense 120.7 (27th)
PU Rush Offense 128.4 (97th) vs IU Rush Defense 182.1 (103rd)
IU PFF Run 75.6 (109th) & Run Blk 46.3 (124th) v PU PFF Run D 69.5 (90th)
PU PFF Run 82.3 (67th) & Run Blk 58.5 (77th) v IU PFF Run D 78.9 (51st)
IU Pass Offense 218.5 (83rd) vs PU Pass Defense 219.4 (61st)
PU Pass Offense 279.8 (23rd) vs IU Pass Defense 272.7 (115th)
IU PFF Pass 51.9 (121st) vs PU PFF Coverage 57.1 (120th)
PU PFF Pass 69 (73rd) vs IU PFF Coverage 50.9 (125th)
IU Pass Efficiency 105.31 (124th) vs PU Pass Efficiency D 132.39 (76th)
PU Pass Efficiency 131.28 (78th) vs IU Pass Efficiency D 151.16 (120th)
IU PFF REC 59.9 (114th) vs PU PFF COV 68.2 (99th)
PU REC 69.8 (65th) vs IU PFF COV 52.0 (124th)
Turnover Margin – IU -3, PU even
IU Sacks 16.5 / 1.50 (115th) vs PU Sacks Allowed 17.0 / 1.55 (39th)
PU Sacks 25.0 / 2.27 (54th) vs IU Sacks Allowed 35 / 3.18 (118th)
IU PFF PRSH 57.4 (127th) vs PU PFF PBLK 66.9 (57th)
PU PFF PRSH 75.3 (53rd) vs IU PFF PBLK 42.3 (120th)
IU TFLs 58.5 / 5.3 (84th) vs PU TFLs Allowed 41 / 3.7 (7th)
PU TFLs 54 / 4.9 (99th) vs IU TFLs Allowed 91 / 8.3 (125th)
IU Red Zone Offense .769 (111th) vs PU Red Zone Defense .839 (73rd)
PU Red Zone Offense .933 (6th) vs IU Red Zone Defense .774 (24th)
Key Boilermakers
Sr QB Aiden O’Connell – 2,834 yds, 63.8%, 20 TDs, 11 INTs
Sr WR Charlie Jones – 93 rec, 1,056 yds, 11.4 ypc, 11 TDs
Sr TE Payne Durham – 50 rec, 511 yds, 10.2 ypc, 7 TDs
Fr RB Devin Mockobee – 750 yds, 5.0 ypc, 7 TDs, 18 rec, 158 yds
Jr RB Dylan Downing – 335 yds, 3.9 ypc, 4 TDs
Jr S Sanoussi Kane – 56 tkl (45 solo), 1pd, 1 sack, 2 FF, 1 FR
Sr Edge Jack Sullivan – 5 sacks, 30 tkl (20 solo), 1 FF, 1 PD
Sr S Cam Allen – 3 INTs, 6 PD, 38 tkl (31 solo), 2 FR
Injuries
Purdue
Running Back Devin Mockobee is in concussion protocol after leaving the Northwestern game early last week. Players usually don’t tend to play the week after a concussion but we’ll see.
Junior Center Gus Hartwig is in a cast and finished for the season. Hartwig is Purdue’s highest rated offensive lineman according to PFF. (Grades: 71.9 OFF, PBLK 76.8, RBLK 67.3)
Senior Defensive Tackle Branson Deen is most likely out as well. Deen was All Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2021 and Purdue’s highest rated interior defensive lineman according to PFF. (Grades: DEF 72.6, PRSH 78.9, RDEF 63.5)
Indiana
According to Coach Tom Allen Senior Linebacker Cam Jones is trying to make it back for his final game at Indiana.
As of yet no status update regarding Weak side Linebacker Bradley Jennings Jr or Matt Hohlt, who were both out last week against Michigan State forcing Bryant Fitzgerald to step in and play that position.
Storylines
If Iowa loses to Nebraska Friday night a Purdue win would send them to Indianapolis to face the winner of the Ohio State – Michigan game in the Big Ten Championship Game. (Update: Iowa laid an egg so now the Boilers are playing for a spot in the Big Ten Conference Championship in Indianapolis on Saturday December 3rd.)
Indiana is trying to win the Old Oaken Bucket for the first time since 2019. (The two teams did not play in 2020 but Indiana would have been a significant favorite had the game occurred.) With a win Indiana would possess both the Bucket and the Spittoon for the first time since 2016. A win would also improve Indiana’s record to 5-7 and give IU an outside shot at a Bowl Invitation.
A win for the Hoosiers would also be a three-game improvement compared to the 2-10 2021 campaign. Indiana 2oukd also improve to 3 conference wins compared to none last season.
Sophomore Quarterback Dexter Williams II is still auditioning for a starting role in 2023. It will be interesting to see if he shows signs of progressing in his second career start.
Freshman Running Back and Kickoff Returner Jaylin Lucas has become one of the most dangerous returners in the country, will Purdue will roll the dice and kick to him?
Analysis
With the Iowa loss night the question becomes how Purdue handles the pressure of playing for the Big Ten West Division Title? The Hoosiers should relish the role of spoiler. In rivalry games records often go out the window anyway so Indiana has a real shot to be a thorn in the Boilers’ side.
Purdue appears to have some of the same flaws defending off tackle and edge runs that Michigan State struggled with. Indiana has an opportunity to have another good day on the ground. But they will likely need more than 2 completions for 31 yards if they plan to keep pace with PU. If IU can establish the run they should be able to create some space for receivers off play-action. Walt Bell may also try to get Dexter Williams some easy throws via screens, check-downs and by moving the pocket using roll-outs.
Defensively Indiana will need to contain Charlie Jones and Payne Durham. Most of Purdue’s big plays and touchdowns go through those two. O’Connell is likely to force a ball or two over the course of the game so if Indiana can take advantage and make him pay that will go a long way towards getting an Indiana win.
Purdue’s placekicker Mitchell Fineran is just 2-7 from 40-49 yards this season so that could be a factor if this is a close one.
These trophy games are always emotional so the team that does the best job of walking that line – playing with edge but not doing something stupid – may give themselves an advantage. Judging by the Illinois-Purdue Cannon Trophy Game expect Purdue to be chippy and, shall we say, extra communicative.
Prediction
Indiana has an opportunity to play the role of spoiler and to grab some momentum going into next season. When you look at the game in terms of statistics and team / player grades Purdue is the clear favorite. I like the Indiana defense to create some takeaways that lead to scoring opportunities. Look for Dexter Williams to have 100 yards rushing and 150 yards passing and a couple touchdowns.
Boiler down, I got Indiana 34-27.
originally posted here
Number Crunch
SP+ – PU 55, IU 87
CBS Sports 131 – PU 35, IU 84
PFF Power Rankings – PU 48, IU 96
PFF Overall Grade – PU 76.5 (84th), IU 62.1 (127th)
ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor – PU 71.5%
SP+ Win Probability – PU 69%
SP+ Projected Score – PU 36 – IU 27
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – PU 33 – IU 22.5
IU Scoring Offense 23.9 (94th) vs PU Scoring Defense 25.5 (61st)
PU Scoring Offense 23.7 (43rd) vs IU Scoring Defense 34.3 (120th)
IU Rush Offense 101.4 (120th) vs PU Rush Defense 120.7 (27th)
PU Rush Offense 128.4 (97th) vs IU Rush Defense 182.1 (103rd)
IU PFF Run 75.6 (109th) & Run Blk 46.3 (124th) v PU PFF Run D 69.5 (90th)
PU PFF Run 82.3 (67th) & Run Blk 58.5 (77th) v IU PFF Run D 78.9 (51st)
IU Pass Offense 218.5 (83rd) vs PU Pass Defense 219.4 (61st)
PU Pass Offense 279.8 (23rd) vs IU Pass Defense 272.7 (115th)
IU PFF Pass 51.9 (121st) vs PU PFF Coverage 57.1 (120th)
PU PFF Pass 69 (73rd) vs IU PFF Coverage 50.9 (125th)
IU Pass Efficiency 105.31 (124th) vs PU Pass Efficiency D 132.39 (76th)
PU Pass Efficiency 131.28 (78th) vs IU Pass Efficiency D 151.16 (120th)
IU PFF REC 59.9 (114th) vs PU PFF COV 68.2 (99th)
PU REC 69.8 (65th) vs IU PFF COV 52.0 (124th)
Turnover Margin – IU -3, PU even
IU Sacks 16.5 / 1.50 (115th) vs PU Sacks Allowed 17.0 / 1.55 (39th)
PU Sacks 25.0 / 2.27 (54th) vs IU Sacks Allowed 35 / 3.18 (118th)
IU PFF PRSH 57.4 (127th) vs PU PFF PBLK 66.9 (57th)
PU PFF PRSH 75.3 (53rd) vs IU PFF PBLK 42.3 (120th)
IU TFLs 58.5 / 5.3 (84th) vs PU TFLs Allowed 41 / 3.7 (7th)
PU TFLs 54 / 4.9 (99th) vs IU TFLs Allowed 91 / 8.3 (125th)
IU Red Zone Offense .769 (111th) vs PU Red Zone Defense .839 (73rd)
PU Red Zone Offense .933 (6th) vs IU Red Zone Defense .774 (24th)
Key Boilermakers
Sr QB Aiden O’Connell – 2,834 yds, 63.8%, 20 TDs, 11 INTs
Sr WR Charlie Jones – 93 rec, 1,056 yds, 11.4 ypc, 11 TDs
Sr TE Payne Durham – 50 rec, 511 yds, 10.2 ypc, 7 TDs
Fr RB Devin Mockobee – 750 yds, 5.0 ypc, 7 TDs, 18 rec, 158 yds
Jr RB Dylan Downing – 335 yds, 3.9 ypc, 4 TDs
Jr S Sanoussi Kane – 56 tkl (45 solo), 1pd, 1 sack, 2 FF, 1 FR
Sr Edge Jack Sullivan – 5 sacks, 30 tkl (20 solo), 1 FF, 1 PD
Sr S Cam Allen – 3 INTs, 6 PD, 38 tkl (31 solo), 2 FR
Injuries
Purdue
Running Back Devin Mockobee is in concussion protocol after leaving the Northwestern game early last week. Players usually don’t tend to play the week after a concussion but we’ll see.
Junior Center Gus Hartwig is in a cast and finished for the season. Hartwig is Purdue’s highest rated offensive lineman according to PFF. (Grades: 71.9 OFF, PBLK 76.8, RBLK 67.3)
Senior Defensive Tackle Branson Deen is most likely out as well. Deen was All Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2021 and Purdue’s highest rated interior defensive lineman according to PFF. (Grades: DEF 72.6, PRSH 78.9, RDEF 63.5)
Indiana
According to Coach Tom Allen Senior Linebacker Cam Jones is trying to make it back for his final game at Indiana.
As of yet no status update regarding Weak side Linebacker Bradley Jennings Jr or Matt Hohlt, who were both out last week against Michigan State forcing Bryant Fitzgerald to step in and play that position.
Storylines
If Iowa loses to Nebraska Friday night a Purdue win would send them to Indianapolis to face the winner of the Ohio State – Michigan game in the Big Ten Championship Game. (Update: Iowa laid an egg so now the Boilers are playing for a spot in the Big Ten Conference Championship in Indianapolis on Saturday December 3rd.)
Indiana is trying to win the Old Oaken Bucket for the first time since 2019. (The two teams did not play in 2020 but Indiana would have been a significant favorite had the game occurred.) With a win Indiana would possess both the Bucket and the Spittoon for the first time since 2016. A win would also improve Indiana’s record to 5-7 and give IU an outside shot at a Bowl Invitation.
A win for the Hoosiers would also be a three-game improvement compared to the 2-10 2021 campaign. Indiana 2oukd also improve to 3 conference wins compared to none last season.
Sophomore Quarterback Dexter Williams II is still auditioning for a starting role in 2023. It will be interesting to see if he shows signs of progressing in his second career start.
Freshman Running Back and Kickoff Returner Jaylin Lucas has become one of the most dangerous returners in the country, will Purdue will roll the dice and kick to him?
Analysis
With the Iowa loss night the question becomes how Purdue handles the pressure of playing for the Big Ten West Division Title? The Hoosiers should relish the role of spoiler. In rivalry games records often go out the window anyway so Indiana has a real shot to be a thorn in the Boilers’ side.
Purdue appears to have some of the same flaws defending off tackle and edge runs that Michigan State struggled with. Indiana has an opportunity to have another good day on the ground. But they will likely need more than 2 completions for 31 yards if they plan to keep pace with PU. If IU can establish the run they should be able to create some space for receivers off play-action. Walt Bell may also try to get Dexter Williams some easy throws via screens, check-downs and by moving the pocket using roll-outs.
Defensively Indiana will need to contain Charlie Jones and Payne Durham. Most of Purdue’s big plays and touchdowns go through those two. O’Connell is likely to force a ball or two over the course of the game so if Indiana can take advantage and make him pay that will go a long way towards getting an Indiana win.
Purdue’s placekicker Mitchell Fineran is just 2-7 from 40-49 yards this season so that could be a factor if this is a close one.
These trophy games are always emotional so the team that does the best job of walking that line – playing with edge but not doing something stupid – may give themselves an advantage. Judging by the Illinois-Purdue Cannon Trophy Game expect Purdue to be chippy and, shall we say, extra communicative.
Prediction
Indiana has an opportunity to play the role of spoiler and to grab some momentum going into next season. When you look at the game in terms of statistics and team / player grades Purdue is the clear favorite. I like the Indiana defense to create some takeaways that lead to scoring opportunities. Look for Dexter Williams to have 100 yards rushing and 150 yards passing and a couple touchdowns.
Boiler down, I got Indiana 34-27.
originally posted here
Last edited:
