ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 6
Brad's best bet: Even; Progress. Anyone who watched Illinois last season saw it under first-year coach Bret Bielema. He challenged his players publicly on several occasions and it seemed to work. The Fighting Illini lost four games by a touchdown or less and simply winning one of those contests would've resulted in a postseason invite. Illinois was that close. With improved execution offensively, Illinois has a chance to win its first four games of 2022 — Wyoming, at Indiana, Virginia and Chattanooga — heading into a showcase affair against Wisconsin. From there, the slate stiffens and will determine where Bielema's team stands at year's end.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
(Photo: David Banks, USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 3
Brad's best bet: Even; Pat Fitzgerald has seen better days with the Wildcats. Inconsistency at quarterback is just one of a myriad of issues affecting this program's success level at the moment and it appears things may get worse before they improve. Northwestern has a Big Ten Championship Game appearance sandwiched between two 3-9 finishes, which mark the worst seasons since Fitzgerald arrived in 2006. There's a chance Northwestern could end the upcoming 2022 campaign on an eight-game skid given the toughness of the schedule, unless the Wildcats are able to win at Maryland or topple Illinois in the season finale.
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
(Photo: Rick Osentoski, USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 3
Brad's best bet: Over; Rutgers can get to four wins, right? Wagner, at Boston College, Temple, at Maryland, Indiana ... those are all winnable contests and the Scarlet Knights showed last season they're going to be a feisty bunch against the
good teams on the schedule as well under Greg Schiano. Mark this one down as an official play and one of the few you can take to the window in the Big Ten this season. If Rutgers wins the season opener away from home against Jeff Hafley and Boston College, the Scarlet Knights will cash.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
(Photo: Jeffrey Becker, Getty)
Bud's win total projection: 6
Brad's best bet: Even; This pick changes in a hurry if Jeff Brohm's team wins its seismic opener against Penn State in West Lafayette, but the Boilermakers will be a betting underdog in that one as well as five others this season (projected). A .500 finish with a bowl berth will fall short of program expectations for a group coming off a momentous win over Tennessee in the Music City to cap the 2021 campaign. It'll be interesting to see where oddsmakers slot Purdue in the coming weeks when official win totals are released.
INDIANA HOOSIERS
(Photo: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire, Getty)
Bud's win total projection: 4
Brad's best bet: Even; September could be make or break this season for the Hoosiers from an overall win total standpoint. The opener against Illinois is a toss-up and Week 2 against Idaho is a win. From there? Western Kentucky and a road game at Cincinnati round out the opening month and both contests will test Tom Allen's squad. With that in mind and projecting a 2-2 start, Indiana still has to play four of the best teams in the Big Ten — Michigan, Penn State, at Ohio State, at Michigan State — and a trip to Nebraska could be undesirable.
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 9
Brad's best bet: Under; Nine wins for the Golden Gophers seems feasible with losses coming on the road against Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State. However, that would mean Minnesota takes care of business without a loss against the following — Purdue, at Nebraska, Iowa. That feels extremely tricky and much more doable should P.J. Fleck's squad win one of those aforementioned road contests against a nationally-ranked opponent. If Minnesota beats Michigan State in East Lansing, that likely results in a 5-0 start to the season heading into the open week. And for this under bettor, that's bad news.
(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 5
Brad's best bet: Over; The Big Ten will chew you up and spit you out if you're not careful and Mike Locksley may endure that level of brutality in November this season. How's this for murderer's row over the first three weeks of the final month — at Wisconsin, at Penn State, Ohio State. Gulp. If the Terrapins are still standing at that point, the finale at Rutgers could be the difference in a 5-7 finish or getting to bowl eligibility. Maryland plays Michigan and Michigan State, too. The get-in price is cheap on Maryland in April and Taulia Tagovailoa is developing into a difference-maker at the quarterback spot, but few teams can endure this kind of slate. Give me the over with Week 3 against SMU and the Rutgers finale being the two most important games in getting to a bowl.
IOWA HAWKEYES
(Photo: Joseph Cress/ Iowa City Press Citizen, USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 7
Brad's best bet: Even; At first glance, Iowa's projected win total of seven looked like it was on the low side, but further inspection indicated getting back to the conference title game will be an arduous task. Not only do the Hawkeyes take on Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota in consecutive weeks during November, but they'll also entertain the two best teams from the other side of the conference — Michigan and Ohio State — after missing both during the regular season in 2021. Last spring was the time to buy stock in Iowa. The price-point is too costly this time around.
WISCONSIN BADGERS
(Photo: ESPN Images)
Bud's win total projection: 9
Brad's best bet: Over; Wisconsin flatlined early against nationally-ranked competition last season before getting it together and nearly reaching the Big Ten Championship Game. The campaign fell noticeably short of expectations for a program most expected to be in playoff contention. The 2022 slate, while difficult, provides time for the Badgers to work themselves into a lather before opening the conference schedule at Ohio State Sept. 24. By that time, Wisconsin will be 3-0 and playing with confidence. Trips to Michigan State and Iowa are the two toughest matchups the rest of the way for the Badgers and their mission to win the division. With better quarterback play and a solid defense, Wisconsin hits the over and reaches the league title game.
NEBRASKA HUSKERS
(Photo: © Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports, USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 7
Brad's best bet: Under; There are a few programs you can blindly fade and potentially win this fall and Nebraska might be one of them. Sorry, I've made too many bad projections for the Huskers in the Scott Frost era to trust Nebraska being
that much improved in 2022. In actuality, there's a strong chance the Huskers are above water and bowl-eligible entering November thanks to a soft first-half slate, but that's when the season goes south. Nebraska may not win a single game against Minnesota, at Michigan, Wisconsin and at Iowa to close things out. Still, 6-6 is progress.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
Bud's win total projection: 7
Brad's best bet: Over; All Michigan State has to do is win eight games in 2022 and you've cashed the over. First, circle the possible losses — Ohio State, Wisconsin, at Michigan, at Penn State. Then, scribble down the favorable and most-likely wins — Western Michigan, Akron, at Maryland, at Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana. That leaves a road trip to Washington and a home showdown with Minnesota as swing games that will determine where Mel Tucker's team stands in late November. Despite personnel losses, for a team that won a New Year's Six bowl game last season, this is an optimistic wager.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
(Photo: Getty)
Bud's win total projection: 8
Brad's best bet: Even; Respectfully, Penn State has lost the benefit of the doubt this time of year coming off consecutive lackluster seasons. The Nittany Lions have fallen behind Ohio State, Michigan and even Michigan State in the Big Ten East's pecking order and enter the 2022 campaign in "prove it" mode for bettors. Over the first five games of the season, Penn State travels to Purdue and Auburn amid three winnable home games. Escaping that group unscathed will not happen and the Nittany Lions follow that up with matchups against Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and Michigan State over the season's second half. That's extremely difficult. Gauging the possibilities five months out from the opener, Penn State is closer to 7-5 than 9-3 next season.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
(Photo: Rick Osentoski, Getty)
Bud's win total projection: 10
Brad's best bet: Even; Bud nailed this one. Michigan finishing 10-2 after winning the Big Ten Championship Game last season is considerably more likely than the Wolverines running the table after losing their top three defensive players along with facing a more daunting schedule. Michigan plays at Iowa, hosts Penn State and Michigan State, then takes on Ohio State in Columbus to close it out. Jim Harbaugh's team would have to win three of those — and win the other eight games on the schedule — to hit the over, here. That would be deserving of a playoff berth, even as an at-large if the Buckeyes take the conference with a matching or unbeaten record.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
(Photo: Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire, Getty)
16COMMENTS
Bud's win total projection: 11
Brad's best bet: Even; Any picking Ohio State to finish unbeaten during the regular season en route to a College Football Playoff berth? Our early bowl projections place the Buckeyes in the final four, but
that comes at 12-1 with a loss happening somewhere during the Big Ten gauntlet. As someone who has taken the over on several preseason win totals of 11 in the past, every week is excruciating. One loss and you're out of money. If you can find this number at 10.5 or 11.5 for the Buckeyes this spring, there's much more value there. Don't forget — Ohio State opens against Notre Dame in Week 1.
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