Do NYT/Sienna polls always underestimate Trump? Certainly haven't been doing that thru out 2024. In fact NYT/Sienna has been a bit of an outlier, primarily since Harris replaced Biden and especially post debate...Here is an analysis of recent polling post debate from Forbes, a bastion of radical leftism if I've ever seen one...
Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
www.forbes.com
Here is a very good analysis of the NYT polls you posted. This guy does a very good job of pointing out issues with various polls and among the problems with NYT is small sample size (700-800) or so, substantial MOE (above 4.5 points) and very key when it comes to missing out on older AA voters in the South the fact that 97% of the interviews were conducted via cell phone...
Meanwhile you ignored both the most recent CBS and especially NBC polls which demonstrated huge momentum for Harris.The most significant aspect of the NBC poll is that they had not polled since Biden exited the race. In July, NBC showed Trump in the lead, having a significant edge on hot button issues like the economy, immigration and mental fitness and Harris's overall favorability at 18+ points underwater...
The new NBC poll demonstrates how the race has changed.Harris now with a 5point lead, huge increases among youth,Black and Hispanic voters for Harris compared to Biden, and increased popularity which now shows her 48-45 above water. That is the largest shift in popularity for a politician from one NBC poll to the next since Bush made a huge gain afyer 9-11.
In fact of Trump,Vance,Biden,Harris and Walz only Harris and Walz were above water on popularity. Vance is the deepest underwater of the 5 included in the survey, and Trump stands out at 53% negative, 8 points above Harris's unfavorable number. I do think Welker missed the key component at the end where the issues were listed. She characterized Trump as leading on certain issues, but the real point is the inroads Harris has made and how a 9 pt lead on the economy now is nowhere near as decisive as the 22 point lead Trump had in July over Biden...
The more people get to know Harris the more they like her. The CBS poll shows that voters who feel like the overall economy is improving overwhelmingly back Harris, somewhere around 80%. And I wouldn't sleep on Harris being more viewed as an agent of change or having a 20 point lead when it comes to mental fitness. The thing I saw at the Biden debate that made me cringe was Biden's inability to prosecute the case vs Trump and call out Trump's lies, which were obvious.
Harris was able to completely turn the tables and basically make Trump the out of date feeble old man. The Dems have such a financial advantage as the campaign closes, that they will be able to coninue to prosecute that case. Esp in the swing states.
I do wonder if prior to attacking Hatian immigrants Trump stopped and considered FL. He won FL by 300,000 votes in 2020 but in South FL alone there are over 800,000 people of Hatian descent. Up until now they have mainly voted GOP. but Trump and Vance could change all that...
